Podcast Summary: "Trump Is Failing the Marshmallow Test. Again."

The Opinions, hosted by The New York Times Opinion, dives deep into President Donald Trump's ongoing use of tariffs as a tool of power. In the February 6, 2025 episode titled "Trump Is Failing the Marshmallow Test. Again," deputy editor Patrick Healy engages in a comprehensive discussion with colleague Binya Applebaum, an expert in economics, business, and public policy. This episode analyzes Trump's tariff strategies, their implications for international relations, and the broader impact on American politics and consumers.

1. Introduction to Trump's Tariff Strategies

Patrick Healy sets the stage by highlighting Trump's recent negotiations with Canada and Mexico to delay a 25% tariff on nearly all goods for one month, in exchange for increased border security. Concurrently, the U.S. maintains a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, prompting swift retaliation from China.

"I'm Patrick Healy, deputy editor of New York Times Opinion, and this is the First Hundred Days... this week we're going to talk about Trump's favorite way to bully allies and competitors alike. And that's tariffs."
[00:46]

2. The Mechanics and Goals of Trump's Tariffs

Binya Applebaum explains that tariffs function as taxes that directly increase prices for consumers. She outlines how companies importing goods from China are likely to pass these costs onto American consumers, leading to broad-based price hikes.

"Tariffs are a tax, and taxes increase prices. So I think the basic expectation is that companies that are importing goods from China... are going to seek to raise the prices that they charge either to retailers or directly to consumers."
[04:05]

Healy probes whether Trump's actions are part of a classic trade war, a bid for dominance against China, or an attempt to reshape American wealth through aggressive tariff policies.

Binya responds by emphasizing Trump's ideological stance against trade with China, viewing it as inherently detrimental to the U.S. economy. She notes Trump's transactional mindset, always open to negotiations if advantageous, although he perceives China as less willing to engage constructively this time.

"He genuinely does regard trade with China as bad for The United States... he thinks trade with China is bad, and he is trying to discourage it."
[05:21]

3. Long-Term Consequences of Trump's Mercantilist Approach

Binya delves into the broader implications of Trump's mercantilist worldview, where international trade is seen as a zero-sum game. She warns of enormous transformations in international dynamics and potential societal costs due to disrupted economic exchanges.

"He really is reincarnating a perspective on the world known as mercantilism... the international economy is a zero sum game. If China is winning, then the United States is losing and vice versa."
[06:52]

4. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada: A Strategic Bullying Tactic

Healy shifts the focus to Trump's threat of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which were temporarily delayed following negotiations. He questions why Trump targets friendly neighbors, suggesting it reflects his deal-making approach.

Binya characterizes Trump as a bully who exploits the economic interdependence between the U.S. and its northern neighbors. She argues that Mexico and Canada, being deeply entwined with the American economy, are particularly vulnerable to Trump's pressure tactics.

"I think Trump is a bully... they and Mexico were the nations from which he could most easily obtain concessions and demonstrate his strength."
[09:07]

5. The Marshmallow Test: A Metaphor for Trump's Decision-Making

When challenged on why Trump persists with these aggressive strategies, Binya introduces the Marshmallow Test metaphor. She asserts that Trump consistently opts for immediate gains ("eating the first marshmallow") rather than waiting for long-term benefits ("enjoying the two marshmallows").

"Donald Trump... always eats the first marshmallow as soon as it's on the plate in front of him."
[10:31]

She further explains that this impulsive approach undermines long-term strategic alliances and national interests, contrasting it with the benefits of fostering strong partnerships to counteract threats like China.

"Instead of ... assembling an alliance in opposition to China... he's taking advantage of those countries and squeezing them and bullying them."
[11:01]

6. Democratic Response and Political Ramifications

Healy expresses concern over the Democratic Party's ability to effectively counter Trump's aggressive tactics, noting a perceived lack of strategic response beyond legal actions.

Binya critiques the Democrats for relying too heavily on the judicial system and failing to present a cohesive affirmative message against Trump's initiatives. She highlights the challenge in opposing someone who operates outside conventional rules and emphasizes the need for Democrats to articulate a clear alternative vision.

"The Democratic reaction... has been to repeat, it's complicated... until Democrats do that, they're going to find it very hard to effectively oppose Trump."
[17:00]

7. Conclusion: The Future of Trump's Tariff Policies and Political Landscape

Binya remains cautiously optimistic that opposition to Trump's policies will emerge, but she doubts whether current Democratic leaders can effectively rise to the challenge. She underscores the necessity for the opposition to develop a strong, affirmative strategy to counterbalance Trump's assertive approach.

"There is another side to this debate, and it's going to find its leaders... until Democrats can articulate a coherent alternative to Trump's vision for America."
[17:00]

Patrick Healy concludes the discussion by reinforcing the central metaphor and thanking Binya for her insights.

"Binya, stay away from the first marshmallow. Enjoy the two marshmallows. Thanks for talking to me."
[18:33]

This episode of The Opinions provides a thorough analysis of Trump's tariff policies, revealing both the immediate economic impacts and the broader strategic implications for U.S. foreign relations and domestic politics. Through insightful dialogue and compelling metaphors, Patrick Healy and Binya Applebaum offer listeners a nuanced understanding of the complexities surrounding Trump's aggressive trade tactics.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps:

• "Donald Trump, much of his sort of approach to life is to systematically fail the marshmallow test at every opportunity."
  — Binya Applebaum [10:31]

• "He thinks trade with China is bad, and he is trying to discourage it."
  — Binya Applebaum [05:21]

• "Tariffs are a tax, and taxes increase prices."
  — Binya Applebaum [04:05]

• "It's about what's in the glass, it's about who's around the table."
  — La Crema Winery [00:00] (Note: Related to introductory ad content)

This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the episode, detailing the strategic use of tariffs by President Trump, the economic and political ramifications, and the challenges faced by the Democratic Party in mounting an effective response.