Podcast Summary: "Trump’s Bargain With Putin Is ‘Shameful’"
Introduction In the February 24, 2025 episode of The Opinions by The New York Times Opinion, host David French engages in a critical discussion with Corrie Shockey, Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute. The conversation centers on former President Donald Trump's foreign policy strategies, particularly his approach towards Vladimir Putin and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The episode delves into the implications of Trump's actions for U.S. alliances, the state of the war, and the future trajectory of Ukrainian resistance.
Trump's Foreign Policy and Its Implications David French opens the discussion by highlighting Trump's controversial foreign policy moves, emphasizing his tendency to alienate traditional American allies while appearing to be conciliatory towards Vladimir Putin.
"[Trump] has been deeply alarmed by this turn of events... Trump's moves towards Russia and against Ukraine." ([00:36])
Corrie Shockey responds by underscoring the gravity of Trump's strategy, asserting that it signifies a departure from longstanding American foreign policy principles.
The Importance of Supporting Ukraine French prompts Shockey to articulate why the fate of Ukraine is of paramount importance not only to Ukraine itself but also to U.S. national security.
"There is honor in standing alongside people fighting for their freedom and human dignity... free societies fight a lot of wars, they don't fight each other." ([02:21])
Shockey elaborates that supporting Ukraine aligns with America's historical stance of promoting freedom and preventing conflicts among democratic nations, thereby ensuring broader global stability.
Vladimir Putin's Ambitions and Regional Security The conversation shifts to Vladimir Putin's broader ambitions beyond Ukraine. French challenges the notion that the conflict is isolated, questioning the potential regional repercussions of a Ukrainian defeat.
"Putin believes there is no such country as Ukraine... ABA subjugated by Russia." ([03:39])
Shockey agrees, highlighting Russia's pattern of aggression towards neighboring countries and cautioning that conceding to Russian demands would likely embolden further expansionist actions.
Current State of the War French seeks clarity on the present dynamics of the conflict, asking Shockey to assess who might be "winning" or "losing."
"Russia is slowly, grindingly making advances... at about half the pace they were in the fall." ([04:58])
Shockey provides a nuanced analysis, noting that while Russia holds significant territories, Ukraine has inflicted substantial casualties on Russian forces. She emphasizes that Ukraine's resilience has been achieved with minimal expenditure compared to the vast costs borne by Russia.
Potential Withdrawal of U.S. Support Addressing the hypothetical scenario where the Trump administration maximizes its leverage to withdraw U.S. support, French inquires about the sustainability of Ukraine's defense.
"Without American assistance, Ukraine won't have the air defenses to protect their civilian population." ([06:42])
Shockey warns that while Ukraine might continue fighting without U.S. support, the absence of critical defenses and resources would severely diminish their effectiveness against Russian aggression.
Trump Administration's Posture Towards Russia and Allies French explores Trump's diplomatic overtures towards Russia and the apparent shift in U.S. relations with European allies.
"Trump policy is trending towards what he views as a great power condominium... compromising the sovereignty of Ukraine to benefit Russia." ([08:43])
Shockey criticizes the administration's approach, labeling it as "shameful" and unprecedented in American history. She argues that weakening ties with European allies undermines the collective strength that has historically contributed to global security and prosperity.
Negotiations and Potential Settlements The discussion turns to recent diplomatic interactions between the U.S. and Russia, including tentative outlines that exclude Ukraine from the negotiation table.
"President Trump is about to lose Ukraine and benefit Russia when Russia is a major destroyer of the international order." ([08:43])
Shockey expresses skepticism about any settlement that disregards Ukraine's sovereignty, emphasizing the futility of negotiating with an aggressor that seeks to destabilize the international order.
The Feasibility of Ukrainian Neutrality French probes the concept of Ukrainian neutrality as a possible resolution, questioning its viability.
"I don't think neutrality is a stable outcome... West Berlin was vulnerable." ([18:03])
Shockey argues that neutrality would not provide a lasting solution, drawing parallels to historical precedents where neutral states remained vulnerable to aggression. She maintains that Ukraine's integration into Western security frameworks is essential for its defense.
The GOP's Internal Foreign Policy Debate Addressing the broader political landscape, French asks Shockey about the Republican Party's stance on foreign policy amidst Trump's influence.
"Republicans are beginning to find their footing after the disorientation... strong leverage is on defense policy." ([20:59])
Shockey remains cautiously optimistic, believing that the GOP still harbors meaningful opposition to Trump's foreign policy. However, she expresses concern over the concentration of foreign policy authority in the executive branch, which limits Congressional influence.
Concerns Over Intelligence Leadership The conversation shifts to the confirmation of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence, which Shockey criticizes as a significant vulnerability.
"Her judgment is unsound... she has been parroting Russian talking points." ([22:46])
Shockey outlines three primary reasons for her opposition: Gabbard's denial of chemical weapon use by Assad, her stance on Edward Snowden, and her alignment with Russian narratives, all of which compromise the integrity of U.S. intelligence operations.
Future Prospects for Ukraine In concluding the discussion, French asks Shockey to predict Ukraine's situation four years into the future.
"I think Ukraine will still be fighting to try and push Russia out of currently occupied territories." ([25:28])
Shockey reaffirms her belief in Ukraine's enduring resistance, asserting that the Ukrainian people will continue to defend their sovereignty regardless of external support.
Closing Thoughts French and Shockey find common ground in their respect for the Ukrainian spirit and resilience, reaffirming their commitment to supporting Ukraine's fight for independence.
"I can't see them surrendering their sovereignty because Donald Trump tells them to." ([26:13])
The episode concludes with mutual appreciation for each other's perspectives and efforts in maintaining a robust discourse on critical international issues.
Conclusion This episode of The Opinions provides a comprehensive examination of the intricate dynamics between U.S. foreign policy, Russian aggression, and the resilience of Ukrainian sovereignty. Through insightful dialogue, French and Shockey highlight the critical implications of political decisions on global stability and the enduring significance of allied support in countering authoritarian expansion.