Narrator (0:00)

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Patrick Healy (0:44)

I'm Patrick Healy, deputy editor of Opinion, and I've covered American politics for decades as a reporter, editor and running our New York Times focus groups. For the past six months, I've been talking about what matters most in this presidential race. And now we've made it to Election Week. So I spent two years covering the 2016 presidential campaign and another two years overseeing Times coverage of the 2020 presidential race. And during all that work, I heard a handful of insights about voters. The that really stayed with me, and I want to start our final election preview with one of those insights. After Donald Trump won in 2016, his campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway, who has been a pollster for decades, made a comment about voter behavior that I think applies to the Trump Kamala Harris election, too. This is what Conway said. One thing that was missed all along in this election is something we noticed early on, which is that there's a difference to voters between what offends you and what affects you. And Conway kept going with this, she said, and they were being told constantly stare at this, care about this, make this the deal breaker once and for all. And they were told that five or six times a week about different things. And yet they voted the way voters have always voted, she said, on things that affect them, not just on things that offend them. The final polls by the New York Times and Siena College came out yesterday for the seven big swing states. And those polls show an extremely tight race, just too tight for anyone to predict with accuracy who's going to win on Tuesday. Digging into those poll numbers, I found myself thinking about Kellyanne Conway's comment. Trump is more competitive this time around in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin than he was in 2020 and 2016. And those three are all states that Harris must win or is counting on winning. And in our New York Times focus groups with voters in those states, people brought up what affected them far more than what offended them. I think this crystallizes Trump's best chance of winning on Tuesday. A large majority of the country thinks America is on the wrong track and wants a change in the direction of our government. We've done 61 focus groups overall with 680 people. And from the start people have brought up inflation, the cost of living, housing costs, interest rates, things that affect them far more than they've brought up. Trump's behavior and offensive language in 2016, Democrats thought Trump's Access Hollywood comments would offend so many people that there was no way he could win today. Democrats think other voters will be as offended as they are when a Trump ally calls Puerto Rico garbage or when Trump says he'll protect women whether they like it or not. Look, yes, plenty of independent voters and undecided voters and Nikki Haley Republicans and late breaking voters. They don't want like that language, but many don't vote on it. Trump's language for them is not a voting issue. They vote on what affects them. And Kamala Harris has just never had a great argument for that. She's been the second in command to a president who many voters blame for the economy not being better. And she hasn't put forward over and over again the ideas or the sales pitch that could convince large numbers of non Democrats that she has the answers and the ability to solve what affects them. Harris single biggest challenge in this campaign has been saying how she would govern and lead differently than Joe Biden, whose approval ratings are disastrously skirting 40%. As my newsroom colleague Nate Cohn said this past weekend, no party has retained control of the White House when so many Americans were dissatisfied with the country or the president. And yet, as I said, this race is too tight to make predictions. Kamala Harris may win this week, and if she does, I think it's because Trump turned Kellyanne Conway's insight on its head. In 2016, Trump's offensive language and behavior were one thing, but his presidential conduct, especially in 2020 and on January 6, may not just offend many voters, but be so repellent that they will not vote for him. Consider it this way. A big issue throughout this campaign, but especially at its end, is abortion rights and the very strong argument that Kamala Harris is making that she would defend abortion rights and Donald Trump would support and extend abortion bans across America. A poll out of Iowa this past weekend really got at this. It showed Kamala Harris ahead with women in Iowa by 20% percentage points. That is a stunning number. Joe Biden only won women in Iowa by 3 points in 2020. A 20 point margin in Iowa would be extraordinary. And if that's true, Harris might win Iowa, and surely that would be repeated elsewhere. Trump doesn't have the wind at his back this time around. His presidential conduct after the 2020 election and January 6th didn't just offend voters, it affected them. He put America's democracy in peril for his own selfish ends. He would have changed the history of this country with a violent insurrection at the Capitol and the theft of a free and fair election. That isn't just Access Hollywood locker room talk that might offend certain people. What happened in 2020 and on January 6th affected all Americans. Kellyanne Conway was right about voters in 2016 and on Tuesday. I think voters will again care most about what affects them rather than what offends them. This time around, that could cut for and against Donald Trump.