The Pat McAfee Show 2.0, Ep. 1473 – December 17, 2025
Overview
On this loaded "Watt Wednesday" edition, Pat McAfee and the boys tee up a huge football weekend with College Football Playoff games and a pivotal Week 16 in the NFL. With the full PMS roster—AJ Hawk, Darius Butler, AQ Shipley, the Toxic Table (Connor and Ty), and special guests Adam Schefter, Luke Kuechly, and J.J. Watt—the crew navigates the shifting landscapes of both college and pro football, gives deep analysis of team trajectories, discusses the business of the game, and offers their signature blend of banter, behind-the-scenes insights, and relentless energy.
Main Themes
- Chaos and unpredictability in both the NFL and college football playoffs
- Elite defenses and the changing formula for Super Bowl contenders
- The rise of new offensive minds and their impact on the game
- The merits of "Cinderella story" teams in college sports
- The business side of coaching, player moves, and broadcast innovation
Key Discussion Points & Highlights
1. Football Weekend Preview: NFL, College, and Viewing Extravaganza
NFL Parity at an All-Time High
- No division winners entering Week 16 (first time since 2016), creating unprecedented playoff drama.
- Several divisions—NFC North, NFC West—wide open, with critical matchups looming.
- Rams vs Seahawks (Thursday Night): First TNF with two 11+ win teams, both seen as Super Bowl threats.
- [00:52] Darius Butler: "They got a banger. Yeah, we got a banger. ... Two of the best teams in the National Football League. Superstars out there seeing Puka do some other things..."
- Saturday doubleheader: Eagles vs Commanders (Eagles on Hard Knocks) and Packers vs Bears.
- [03:35] Pat: "They just beat the breaks off of the Raiders ... Do they have the team and the camaraderie?"
College Football Playoff Madness
- Friday begins with Alabama vs Oklahoma, followed by a slate including Miami–Texas A&M, Tulane–Ole Miss, and JMU–Oregon.
- [04:57] Pat: "JMU will take on Oregon ... Oregon needs to watch it especially. We don't know what Oregon’s like on TruTV."
- Debate over the value of "Cinderella" teams in college football—weight, depth, money, and NIL parity factors.
- [09:46] AQ Shipley: "They could [bully JMU], but ... I think what Kirk Ferenc does at Iowa is ... he takes the guys that might be 6'1", 6'2", 6'3"... At the end of the day, what matters is: are you a football player?"
2. In-Depth: College Football Playoff & Underdog Debate
- Heated debate on whether smaller schools (JMU, Tulane) really belong and if they can avoid blowouts.
- [10:27] Pat: "Potential will get you fired. But these teams made the playoffs."
- [12:03] Ty: "It's not the 12 best teams."
- [13:59] AQ/Pat: "JMU doesn’t have those guys and they’re still a good football team. — Against who is the question."
- Joel Klatt's controversial take: true Cinderellas never actually win in March Madness or CFP, which the guys push back on, championing the unpredictability of sports.
- [10:59] Pat: "There are some differences. Getting off the bus..."
3. NFL Quarterback News: Tua Benching & Dolphins Reset
Adam Schefter Exclusive [16:48–20:59]
- Breaks the news: Tua Tagovailoa benched for rookie Quinn Ewers, Dolphins moving on.
- Massive financial implications for Miami, echoes recent Broncos/Jets cap-strategy moves.
- [17:47] Schefter: "Tua Tungavailoa is going to have a $99 million cap charge if they decide to move on from him. That would the single largest cap..."
Why Did Tua’s Career Stall? Panel Deep-Dive
- Speculation on impact of concussions, Dolphins roster exodus, and Tua’s postgame attitude.
- [22:43] Darius Butler: "As a quarterback, as the face of the franchise after a loss like that ... you can't be on the field like this, chumming it up."
- Dolphin's collapse linked to bad optics, leadership questions, and the hazards of building around projection vs performance.
- [24:52] Connor: "He was throwing people under the bus ... lost some players for sure."
Future of Tua
- Likely gets another chance, but as a backup or low-cost starter; the crew questions if he still "loves ball."
- [28:39] Pat: "This looks like a dude after the game ... does this guy love ball still?"
4. Analyst Spotlight: Luke Kuechly on Monday Night Football Playbook
New Alt Cast, Next Gen Stats, and Analytics in Broadcasts [31:49–53:59]
- Kuechly joins to hype up the new AI/analytics-driven MNF Playbook broadcast with Orlovsky & Field Yates, debuting soon.
- [32:17] Kuechly: "It's a really cool opportunity...We're going to try to explain a lot of the why."
- Deep dive into how offensive minds (Shanahan, McVay, Ben Johnson) layer scheme, sequencing, and deception.
- [39:15] Kuechly: "I think the ability to set plays up ... They're going to show you a look. They're going to have two or three run plays off that look and ... two or three pass plays off that look."
- Luke details his own prep, the chess match vs Sean Payton/Drew Brees, and the value of analytics—so long as you trust them fully.
- [52:42] Kuechly: "If you're going to be an analytics guy, the best way to be is to say, hey, every time it says go, we go ..."
5. NFL Playoff Picture: Defense Matters Again
- Parity reigns; 8 teams in each conference could credibly win the Super Bowl, and the best ones all have top defenses.
- [49:44] Ty (to Luke): "Would you be surprised if ... if you have a truly elite defense and it's the best part of your team, then you don't necessarily need like a Josh Allen or one of those top 5 QBs in order to win a Super Bowl?"
- [50:20] Kuechly: "If you talk to anybody in the AFC, the last team they want to play right now is the Houston Texans...the defense has played extremely well."
- The resurgence of the Houston Texans defense under DeMeco Ryans; potential to make a deep playoff run.
- [182:47] Pat: "That's a scary team to have to play, especially in the playoffs."
6. J.J. Watt Wednesday: Candid Banter & Insider Stories
- J.J. gives updates on TJ Watt’s medical emergency, Steelers sans star defender, and the Dolphins’ reset.
- [89:54] J.J.: "He's working through it ... just handling the situation day by day ... certainly not anticipating being in the hospital and getting lung surgery last week."
- On Tua and postgame optics:
- [92:53] J.J.: "I know this is, you know, old man get off the lawn type situation ... When you're cracking up like, like belly laughing on the field after you just lost a huge game ... That's a look that doesn’t go over well..."
- J.J.'s NFL business experience: Wanted to finish his career in Green Bay, Packers never made an offer.
- [111:06] J.J.: "The ideal situation for me would be to go play for the Green Bay Packers ... I'll take a significant, significant hometown discount to play there ... Was not given a number to consider."
- Extended discussion on stadium traditions (esp. Texas A&M and Kyle Field), quirky Aggie customs, the legendary Aggie ring, and college football atmospheres.
7. Film Rooms & In-the-Trenches
In the Trenches with AQ Shipley [142:13+]
- Top 5 NFL Offensive Lines of Week 15:
- Buffalo Bills
- [157:11] "When push comes to shove ... give it to Cook on the duo play."
- Chicago Bears
- [153:44] "Really like this group ... run game continuing to impress."
- Houston Texans
- [150:08] "They're starting to get better ... old-school duo, best play in football."
- Philadelphia Eagles
- [144:20] "Back in the mix ... their empty run package has been one of the best over the years."
- Los Angeles Rams
- [142:46] "Great in pass pro, great in the run game ... run behind a two-headed monster."
- Buffalo Bills
- Discussion of how modern OCs (Ben Johnson/Shanahan/McVay) help linemen with motion/formation sequencing.
Everything DB with Darius Butler [172:09+]
- Bears DBs lead league in INTs; Texans' secondary and physicality; Chargers' coverage excellence.
- [179:08] Texans' Kamari Lassiter: "Second year out of Houston, hard hitter, he'll show up in the run game ... and he'll also cover."
- Panel agrees Houston’s defense is the best single unit in the league right now.
8. Bowl Season, Viewing Habits, & The Business of Football
- Panel bemoans meaninglessness and proliferation of lower-tier bowls. Suggests radical ideas: bowl games as season openers, NIT-style tourneys for non-CFP teams.
- [134:55] Darius: "Have [bowls] start the season out...then that way the bowl games are still significant ... still get the sponsors, still get the money."
9. Memorable Banter, Quotes, & Signature Moments
On Tua after the loss:
"As a quarterback, as the face of the franchise after a loss like that ... you can’t be on the field like this, chumming it up." — Darius Butler [22:50]
Colossal College Football Questions:
"Maybe JMU shows up. But the biggest difference is in the trenches, right? ... Whenever you’re talking about Cinderella stories in smaller schools ... it’s trenches.” — Pat & AQ [07:54]
J.J. Watt on NFL Business Reality:
"The ideal situation for me would be to go play for the Green Bay Packers ... Was not given a number to consider." — J.J. Watt [111:06]
Defensive Football is BACK:
"If you talk to anybody in the AFC, the last team that they want to play right now is the Houston Texans." — Luke Kuechly [49:44]
On Monday Night Football Playbook Analytics:
"If you’re going to be an analytics guy, the best way to be is to say: hey, every time it says go, we go ... I think when you get in trouble is when your emotion gets involved." — Luke Kuechly [52:42]
On Kyle Field:
"If I was designing a football stadium, Kyle Field would be the beginning template..." — J.J. Watt [75:51]
Segment Timestamps (Key Highlights)
- 00:00 — Show open, NFL parity, playoff scenarios
- 04:23 — College playoff preview; bowl games, “Cinderella” debate
- 16:48–20:59 — Adam Schefter reports Tua benching, Miami QB reset & fallout
- 31:49–53:59 — Luke Kuechly on MNF analytics, football intelligence, and defensive chess matches
- 49:44 — Defensive teams as championship contenders (Kuechly, Ty)
- 65:44 — AJ Hawk joins for playoff coverage, field pass banter, football production talk
- 74:17 — J.J. Watt joins: TJ Watt injury, Dolphins' Tua move, NFL chaos, Packers rejection story
- 111:06 — J.J. reveals Packers never offered in free agency ("I was not given a number")
- 142:13 — In the Trenches with AQ Shipley: Top O-lines of Week 15 & why schemes work
- 172:09 — Everything DB with Darius Butler: Top defensive plays and units
- 184:58 — Texans' defense: physicality, standard-setting, and playoff threats
Tone and Style Notes
- Conversation is loose, rapid-fire, sometimes vulgar, and always player/insider-driven.
- Playful banter and rivalry underscored by deep expertise; the show is peppered with running gags, “dumb” questions, and pop culture references.
- Pat keeps things energetic, irreverent, but driven by a deep respect for the game and its nuances.
For Listeners Who Missed the Episode
If you want to know:
- Why this weekend might decide the NFL and college football champions
- How underdog teams are built (or possibly fated for disaster) in today's game
- Why Tua Tagovailoa is suddenly out in Miami and what it means league-wide
- How coaching, analytics, and culture are evolving live (Luke Kuechly’s brain is... different)
- Which teams (namely, the Texans) nobody wants to play in January
- The real stories NFL legends like J.J. Watt only share among friends
...this episode is a pure playbook for understanding 2025’s wild football present and future.
Signature Sign-Off
Pat: "Be a friend, tell a friend something nice. It might change their life. AQ, anything for the team?"
AQ: "Big week of football... Enjoy this time of year, everyone!" [198:53]