
Hosted by Turner Novak · EN

Dan Teran is the co-founder Gutter Capital, a concentrated seed fund in NYC, and Elbow Grease, the accelerator that puts 15 startups in one building and helps build their teams for them.Gutter just announced a $75M Fund III and opened applications for the second Elbow Grease batch (apply below by July 31st)We get into starting an accelerator when there’s already a hundred of them, why Gutter prefers very concentrated portfolios, what it was actually like selling Managed by Q to WeWork, why raising a fund turned out to be harder than selling a company, why he thinks startups should form a board and use OKR’s from day one, and the time he went big-wave surfing with Adam Neumann and Laird Hamilton.Thank you to James Gettinger, Satya Patel, Abhinav Kapur, and JT White for help brainstorming topics for the conversation.Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapitalAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comMerge: Every modal. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. merge.dev/turnerTimestamps:(0:00) Elbow Grease: NYC’s new accelerator(7:39) Building a small, hands-on, in-person experience(13:39) Recruiting 100 people into portfolio companies(16:25) Portfolio concentration makes investors more helpful(24:58) Why raising Fund 1 was so hard(28:08) Advice for new fund managers(30:30) “Hiring today is as competitive as ever”(32:23) Selling Managed By Q to WeWork(35:23) “Never raise too much money”(39:43) Almost buying his company back from WeWork in Feb 2020(43:50) Starting Gutter Capital in the depths of COVID(49:34) Funding angel investing with gambling proceeds(52:39) Behind the name “Gutter Capital”(54:49) “Raising a fund is like getting punched in the face”(59:03) Writing long LP letters(1:06:45) Investing in real world problems(1:09:48) What a Gutter founder looks like(1:12:46) How Gutter makes new investments(1:18:41) Importance of customer calls at pre-seed(1:21:59) Evolution of NYC tech over last 15 years(1:26:15) Why you should form a board at Seed(1:28:29) How to run a Seed stage board meeting(1:34:04) Sharing carry with portfolio founders(1:35:56) The best founders need lots of help(1:39:30) Big wave surfing with Adam Neumann and Laird HamiltonReferencedApply to Elbow Grease: https://forms.gutter.cc/eg0002-applicationElbow Grease: https://elbowgrease.cc/Gutter Capital: https://www.gutter.cc/WeWork Acquires Managed By Q: https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/03/wework-acquires-managed-by-q/Follow DanLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danteran/Follow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Sam Blond is the Co-founder and CEO of Monaco, the revenue engine for startups.Sam is one of the best sales operators in tech. He spent four years as CRO at Brex, where he helped scale it to a ~$12B valuation, ran sales at Zenefits before that, and got his start at EchoSign.If there’s a modern GTM playbook, Sam helped write it. Our conversation walks through how AI has rewritten a big chunk of it. But most importantly, we talk about what hasn’t changed.We get into the sales work AI is now better at than humans, and why Sam thinks 90% of startups misdiagnose their bottleneck as conversion when it’s really demand gen.He explains why he doesn’t measure early brand marketing at all and trusts anecdotes over attribution, walks through the full Monaco launch playbook including the Super Bowl box-truck story, and shares a rev-ops insight from Brex, including how they figured out a specific ICP converted at 4x the rate of another.Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapitalAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comMerge: Every modal. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. merge.dev/turnerTimestamps:(0:00) Scaling Brex to $12B(1:14) How AI speeds up prospecting and TAM building(5:19) Using AI to get more leverage(9:15) Incubating Monaco at Founders Fund(12:56) Innovator’s dilemma in AI(15:57) Why AI companies build full platforms, not wedge products(23:30) Revenue is just a math equation(27:18) Two ways AI increases conversion rates(36:56) AI will never replace spending time with customers(39:46) Don’t measure the impact of brand marketing(49:03) Your marketing must be different (and hard)(58:39) Customer discovery calls and working with design partners(1:03:03) The zero to 100 launch(1:11:00) Monaco’s launch playbook(1:19:00) Send gifts that are unique and social(1:22:17) Naming your company(1:28:04) Founders should send early outbound(1:32:38) How multi-channel augments AI outbound(1:39:42) Using intent signals and outreach timing to increase conversions(1:43:28) Two common ways founders mess up when scaling revenue(1:50:22) Monaco’s Forward Deployed AE'sReferencedTry Monaco: https://www.monaco.com/Careers at Monaco: https://jobs.ashbyhq.com/monacoSam’s launch post: https://x.com/samdblond/status/2026420015793320129?s=20Follow SamTwitter: https://x.com/samdblondLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sam-blond-791026b/Follow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Nuno Goncalves Pedro is the Founder and Managing Partner at Chamaeleon. He won't describe it this way, but I'd call Chamaeleon something like "The RenTech of VC."Chamaeleon is built around its proprietary data platform, Mantis, which borrows tools like factor analysis from public-market investors and operates more like a quant hedge fund than a traditional venture firm.We talk through a bunch of data that cuts against the common narrative in venture, including why repeat founders aren't always the safer bet, why sub-$100m funds catch the majority of fund-returning deals, and why 10x might be a better target than 100x.Thank you to Numeral, Flex, Amplitude, and Merge for supporting this episode.Numeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapitalAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comMerge: Every modal. One API. Total control. Check out Merge’s Agent Handler. merge.dev/turnerTimestamps:(1:00) When 1st time founders outperform serial entrepreneurs(8:05) Mantis: factor-driven quant model for VC(18:33) Why most VC’s are not data-driven(22:28) Top 1% VC fund performance(27:41) Early customer sentiment stronger success indicator than PMF or Team(34:09) Importance of co-investors on performance(39:42) Sub-$100M funds capture 70% of fund-returning deals each year(43:53) The Neolab AI bubble(52:16) Marketing games that VC’s play(55:22) Most investors are not high conviction(56:43) Startups not raising for at least 3 years are 5x less likely to succeed. 10x less likely at 5 years.(1:00:19) Emerging managers have lowest LP interest in the last 15 years(1:11:19) LP capital is much less concentrated than in 2011(1:16:28) The importance of remaining relevant(1:21:01) You must lean into your unique edge as an investor(1:23:18) Pros/Cons of an alumni network venture strategy(1:28:29) Specialist funds outperform generalists (with a catch)(1:35:22) The data says go for 10x, not 100x returns(1:41:41) Should you start or join a VC firm today?(1:48:07) Nuno’s collection of 270+ phones(1:53:16) Racing cars (and winning championships)ReferencedChamaeleon: https://www.chamaeleon.vc/Tech Deciphered Podcast https://decipheredshow.com/Say It With Charts: https://www.amazon.com/Say-Charts-Executives-Visual-Communication/dp/007136997XHow To Lie With Charts: https://www.amazon.com/How-Charts-Gerald-Everett-Jones/dp/1419651439Redmagic Phone: https://redmagic.gg/ASUS Rog phone: https://rog.asus.com/phones/rog-phone-model/Follow NunoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ngpedro/Follow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

I just attended Allocate’s Beyond Summit in Deer Valley Utah. It was a peek into what the top VC's and LP’s are thinking about right now.Allocate asked me to record an episode of the show, live from the conference.So I asked everyone “What’s your hottest take on the VC market today?”Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episodeNumeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapitalAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comTimestamps:(1:22) Seed investing is dead (Tripp Jones, Uncork)(5:56) Seed is not dead (Bryan Rosenblatt, Sandlot)(13:19) Most consensus era of VC ever (Nate Williams, Union)(18:02) Taking the Power Law Pill (Pratyush Buddiga, Susa Ventures)(29:15) The 2nd-time founder premium is dead (Matt Cohen, Ripple Ventures)(32:46) AI will crush intelligence labor (Clark Cheng, Merrimac)(42:25) New deep tech investors will lose their shirts (Sunil Nagaraj, Ubiquity Ventures)(46:39) ChatGPT for robotics is still 15 years away (Sungjoon Cho, Fortitude Ventures)(52:07) The app layer ARR reckoning (Josh Christensen, Mercato)(58:30) The AI bubble will pop in Q2/Q3 (Amias Gerety, QED)(1:08:22) Most individuals do VC wrong (Jon Oberheide)(1:15:25) Allocators have become too allocator-y (Dan Feder, University of Michigan)(1:20:55) LP’s should value information, not just returns (Ben Ivey, Marshall Street)(1:24:09) Upcoming litigation of Russian doll SPVs (Asher Siddiqui, Song United)(1:30:13) Why retail needs private market access (Sarah Pinto Peyronel, Robinhood Ventures)Referencedhttps://beyondsummit.allocate.co/Tripp Jones, Uncork CapitalTwitter: https://x.com/thistrippjonesBryan Rosenblatt, SandlotTwitter: https://x.com/BRosenblatt4Nate Williams, UnionTwitter: https://x.com/naywilliamsPratyush Buddiga, Susa VenturesTwitter: https://x.com/pratyushbuddigaMatt Cohen, Ripple VenturesTwitter: https://x.com/mattybcohenClark Cheng, MerrimacLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/clark-cheng-cfa-frm-caia-a411535Sunil Nagaraj, Ubiquity VenturesTwitter: https://x.com/sunilnagarajSungjoon Cho, Fortitude VenturesTwitter: https://x.com/josungjoonJosh Christensen, MercatoLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joshjdmba/Amias Gerety, QEDTwitter: https://x.com/amiasmgJon OberheideTwitter: https://x.com/jonoberheideDan Feder, MichiganLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/danfederBen Ivey, Marshall StreetLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/beniveyAsher Siddiqui, Song UnitedLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ashersiddiquiSarah Pinto Peyronel, Robinhood VenturesTwitter: https://x.com/SPintoPeyronel*This podcast is produced by Allocate for informational and educational purposes only and is intended for institutional, accredited, and qualified investors. Nothing discussed constitutes an offer to sell or solicitation to purchase any security or advisory service, and nothing should be construed as legal, tax, or investment advice. Any offering will be made only pursuant to applicable confidential offering documents.Views expressed by participants are their own and subject to change. Any discussion of target returns, projected outcomes, IRRs, MOICs, or other performance metrics is hypothetical and illustrative only and should not be relied upon as an indication of future performance.Investments in private funds are speculative, illiquid, and involve substantial risk, including possible loss of the entire investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.Certain guests may have financial or other interests in the opportunities discussed. Allocate Management Company, LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply any level of skill, training, or SEC endorsement. Please consult your own advisors before making any investment decision.*

Alfred Wallforss is the Co-founder of Listen Labs, the AI customer research company.Companies like Microsoft use Listen to run AI-powered customer interviews, and Alfred talks about how they first landed them as a customer at a pitch competition.We talk why startups should pursue enterprise customers early on, why 85% of survey answers are random clicks, how AI is changing the $140B market research industry, leveraging VC’s for customer intros, how to stand out when recruiting as a startup, and hiring for obsession.Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episodeNumeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapitalAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comTimestamps:(0:14) Listen: AI customer research tool(7:30) Fraud is a big problem in customer research(9:06) The $140B customer survey industry(12:08) Why running customer surveys is so hard(16:03) AGI will never replace humans(18:25) Surveys vs interviews(21:13) Importance of emotion in data collection(22:54) Using AI interviews to get product feedback(26:15) Building digital twins creates better data(32:22) Outperforming generic AI tools(34:17) Sweetgreen’s Max Protein Bowl(36:09) Jevon’s Paradox in customer research(40:37) Quantitative vs qualitative(42:38) Landing Microsoft as an early customer(44:50) Targeting enterprise customers from day 1(48:05) Building a VC customer intro leaderboard(51:53) Recruiting with billboard games(57:20) Hiring for obsession(1:02:07) Alfred’s favorite movies(1:03:53) Listen’s custom agent harness(1:06:24) Velocity Fellowship for Swedes moving to SF(1:08:34) Growing up with entrepreneurial older brother(1:09:46) No shoes in the officeReferencedTry Listen: https://listenlabs.ai/Careers at Listen: https://listenlabs.ai/careersSweetgreen protein bowls: https://listenlabs.ai/case-studies/sweetgreenToni Erdmann: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt4048272/Episode with Erik @ Modal: https://www.thespl.it/p/building-ai-native-infrastructureFollow AlfredTwitter: https://x.com/itsalfredwLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/wahlforssFollow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Tomasz Tunguz is the Founder and General Partner of Theory Ventures.We talk about today’s “all out sprint” in AI, Anthropic’s strategy, the three layers of AI business models, how AI compares to prior technologies, where to invest in AI today, and what Theory looks for in new investments.Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episodeNumeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapitalAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comTimestamps:(0:42) The “all out sprint” in AI today(1:40) Why GPU prices are up 116% in six weeks(6:34) AI infra end-state: “We’ll over build”(9:12) Tokenmaxxing, and why AI needs to get more efficient(15:48) AI models will resemble pharma more than software(19:52) Why Anthropic still trades at a discount(25:42) Anthropic’s strategy: commoditize the compliments(30:29) Why OpenClaw is so strategic for OpenAI(34:08) The three layers of AI business models(38:18) Where to invest in AI today(45:49) Who will survive SaaSpocalypse?(52:15) Comparing AI’s impact to historical technology cycles(57:34) How new technology historically impacts jobs(1:05:58) Where AI is underrated today(1:10:41) How people are actually buying AI products(1:14:06) Why Theory’s investing in ads, inference, and email(1:16:24) 2026 IPO pipeline, how VC has changed over 20 years(1:20:56) What Theory looks for in new investments(1:22:32) Starting Theory Ventures in 2022(1:25:39) Running a monte carlo analysis to determine portfolio construction(1:27:54) Tomasz personal AI projectsReferencedTheory Ventures: https://theoryvc.com/Tomasz Blog: https://tomtunguz.com/Follow TomaszTwitter: https://x.com/ttunguzLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomasztunguzFollow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

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Ali Partovi is the Co-founder and CEO of Neo.Neo started in 2017 as a network for the top college students. Neo is a “people-first” investor, a thesis it developed missing out on early investments in PayPal and Google at three employees.Neo has since invested in the Seed rounds of Cursor and Kalshi, and Ali shares everything he’s learned about spotting outlier talent, how to hire the best people, how computer science is the best business education, and why the best entrepreneurs start young.Special thanks to Hadi Partovi, Fuzzy Khosrowshahi, Alan Shusterman, and Claire Shorall for their help brainstorming topics for Ali.Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episodeNumeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Get premium banking and a net 60 day credit card at 0% APY https://home.flex.one/referral/bananacapitalAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comTimestamps:(0:09) Neo’s two 10x funds(2:19) Missing PayPal led to Neo(9:32) Not investing in Google at 3 employees(11:31) Backing Facebook despite the idea(13:01) Starting Neo to help top college students(17:21) How to identify outlier talent(24:38) Neo’s coding test(27:41) Bootstrapping the first cohort of Neo Scholars(34:58) How Cognition President Russel Kaplan changed Neo forever(39:21) Starting Neo after talking to Steph Curry(46:42) Launching [Code.org](http://Code.org) to teach 20M kids to code(59:38) Is coding still relevant in 2026?(1:03:43) How to hire outlier talent(1:07:25) Why you should aggressively apply for one job(1:11:09) Neo Residency: $750k uncapped(1:19:51) Growing up in Iran during the revolution(1:26:03) Impact of the immigrant mentality(1:29:15) Most entrepreneurial roots start very young(1:39:18) Lessons investing in Cursor + Kalshi seed rounds(1:50:27) Confession: a podcast about failure(1:52:36) Fucking up a $50m deal by lying to Steve JobsReferencedNeo: https://neo.com/Neo Scholars Application: https://neo.com/scholarsNeo Residency: https://neo.com/residencyCode.org: https://code.org/Lying to Steve Jobs: https://x.com/apartovi/status/1447251334814523392Losing a deal with Yahoo: https://x.com/apartovi/status/1449856639331340289Follow AliTwitter: https://x.com/apartoviLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/apartovi/Follow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Jim Belosic is the Co-founder and CEO of SendCutSend, a sheet metal manufacturing business he bootstrapped to a $140 million revenue run rate in eight years.We talk building a manufacturing business in the US, creative ways he financed the company early on, using speed and trust to compete with overseas competitors, lessons from restaurants, and why you can’t run a factory from a spreadsheet.Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episodeNumeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Sign-up for Flex Elite with code TURNER, get $1,000 https://form.typeform.com/to/Rx9rTjFzAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comTimestamps:(0:16) Automating sheet metal manufacturing(5:59) Zero to $140 million ARR in 8 years(7:58) Acquiring a $750k laser with $0(13:38) Automating factories is like baking cookies(15:17) Being legible to capital(17:31) Unlocking custom, low order manufacturing with software(20:00) Building more factories instead of selling the software(24:50) Run your company like a lemonade stand(28:30) Raising an angel round in 2021 as a safety net(33:21) SendCutSend’s unique bottoms-up GTM(38:24) Fun coupons(40:12) Building a moat with speed and trust45:55) How US factories can beat China(47:40) Gaslight product launches(52:05) Lessons from non-manufacturing businesses(55:19) You can’t run a factory from a spreadsheet(58:10) Using data in manufacturing(59:50) Lessons from Factorio(1:03:17) Unlocking a negative cash conversion cycle(1:06:14) You need to resist automating everything(1:13:51) Surviving COVID with six weeks of cash(1:15:47) Solving the US skilled labor shortage(1:26:17) Teaching kids about manufacturingReferencedSendCutSend: https://sendcutsend.com/Careers at SendCutSend: https://sendcutsend.com/careersSandy Kory: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sandykoryHorizon VC: https://www.horizon.vc/Concrete Canoe Competitions: https://www.asce.org/communities/student-members/conferences/asce-concrete-canoe-competitionFollow JimTwitter: https://x.com/jimbelosicLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/belosicFollow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/

Alex Israel is the Co-founder and CEO of Metropolis.He unpacks the unique strategy they used as a tech startup to rollup parking lots and become the largest parking operator in the world.Thank you to Will Quist, Yoni Rechtman, Adam Bain, and Jamie Siminoff for their help brainstorming topics for the conversation.Thank you to Numeral, Flex, and Amplitude for supporting this episodeNumeral: The end-to-end platform for sales tax and compliance https://www.numeral.comFlex: Sign-up for Flex Elite with code TURNER, get $1,000 https://form.typeform.com/to/Rx9rTjFzAmplitude: AI analytics, all you have to do is ask https://www.amplitude.comTimestamps:(1:10) Helping 50m Americans park(4:00) Building “Buy Now” for the physical world(9:02) Real-world checkout technology that works(16:07) Why parking never institutionalized as an asset class(18:34) Using tech to make parking assets more valuable(21:53) Parking lots as autonomous robotics hubs(29:07) Going to film school, working at MTV(30:55) Starting his first parking data company(33:47) Culture of pranking each other(36:27) A Fortune 500 CEO convinced him to start a 2nd parking company(42:55) Realizing they couldn’t sell to real estate operators(46:09) Acquiring a company 10x their size to jumpstart GTM(50:20) How to do a successful AI growth buyout(54:48) Revenue growth must be driven by technology(1:00:33) Why companies should do growth buyouts(1:03:55) Being legible to capital(1:09:16) You need creativity to take risks(1:13:30) AI is the first ever disruption to skilled labor(1:19:14) CEO challenges growing zero to 23,000 employees(1:24:31) Alex’ personal AI stackReferencedMetropolis: https://www.metropolis.io/Careers at Metropolis: https://www.metropolis.io/careersRoy Amara: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roy_AmaraFollow AlexTwitter: https://x.com/Alex__IsraelLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alex-israelFollow TurnerTwitter: https://twitter.com/TurnerNovakLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/turnernovakSubscribe to my newsletter to get every episode + the transcript in your inbox every week: https://www.thespl.it/