The Peter McCormack Show #116 – Jamie Jenkins: Why the UK Is Failing, The Data Doesn’t Lie

Date: September 26, 2025
Host: Peter McCormack
Guest: Jamie Jenkins (Statistician, Former ONS, Substack Writer)
Theme: An unflinchingly data-driven diagnosis of the UK's economic, social, and political malaise—and how narratives often obscure uncomfortable truths.

Episode Overview

Peter McCormack sits down with Jamie Jenkins, a former Office for National Statistics (ONS) manager and now an independent commentator, to dissect the current state of the UK. Focusing on objective data rather than partisan narratives, the episode tackles government debt, public sector bloat, economic stagnation, energy policy, immigration, crime, and the ever-contentious NHS. Jenkins insists that the numbers don’t lie—and that both political classes and much of the media routinely mislead or blunt uncomfortable realities, knowingly or not.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Introduction: Who is Jamie Jenkins? [04:50–08:38]

• Jamie outlines his background: always passionate about numbers, top of his class in maths, degrees in stats and economics.
• Early experiences at the ONS and pushing for public-facing statistical storytelling instead of dry data dumps.
• Frustration at how politicians and journalists misused or ignored statistics, especially during COVID.
• Left the civil service to voice his opinions and began highlighting discrepancies during the pandemic.

Quote:
"We would publish data, stick it on the website, but I would say, well, what’s the point? … I want to start writing stories. I don’t want to just put numbers on a website with a very dry statistical release, 15 pages long that nobody can see anything." [06:03] – Jamie Jenkins

2. Beyond “Left” and “Right”: Is It Really the Divide? [08:38–10:32]

• The labels of left and right are less relevant as parties mix and match policies.
• Rise of the Reform Party shows old dichotomies breaking down.
• Jenkins: “Is there a left and right anymore? This is just right and wrong.” [08:47]

Notable Quote:
"The strongest argument for socialism is that it sounds good. The strongest argument against socialism is that it doesn't work." [09:02] – Peter (quoting Thomas Sowell)

3. The UK’s Economic Predicament in Numbers [10:32–16:34]

• National debt now at £2.87 trillion—near 100% of GDP.
• Borrowed £150 billion in last fiscal year alone.
• Businesses are investing less due to increasing taxes and labor costs.
• Public sector jobs growing while private sector jobs (especially hospitality) decline.
• Politicians only think in the short-term; long-term consequences ignored.

Notable Analysis:

• Jenkins: “You cannot fund the public sector without the private sector. Where does the money come from? ... It comes from borrowing.” [13:31]
• On tackling inflation: “The main driver … was energy, because everything in the economy uses energy to some extent.” [15:01]

4. Media & Statistical Literacy [19:24–22:04]

• Jenkins’ stint at the BBC reveals news agenda shaped by editors, not just events.
• Journalists, even many political editors, often lack skill interrogating numbers—so government data goes unscrutinised.
• The BBC’s narrative often dictates public discussion, with a leftward slant.

Memorable Moment:
"How do you prepare the news? … 'We make the news.' That was a bit of an eye opener for me.” [19:24]

5. Tax, Redistribution, and the Limits of "Tax the Rich" [22:04–23:12]

• “Problems can’t be solved by taxing the rich more.”
• In reality, wealth taxes and new duties only ever cover a sliver of new government spending.
• Politicians say what’s needed to win votes, not enact sustainable policy.

6. Small Boats, Asylum, and the Immigration Debate [23:28–27:13]

• The dominant narrative about “small boats” ignores the larger system: majority of claims from people entering via legal means and then overstaying visas.
• Largest group: Pakistan; most did not arrive by boat but by air.
• Starmer’s and other politicians’ responses are spin, not substantive solutions.

Memorable Data Point:
"110,000 record asylum claims ... 32,000 in hotels. £4.7 billion spent on asylum accommodation alone. That’s the tax of 600,000 people." [00:00, echoed at 119:02]

7. Energy, Cost of Living, and “Price Controls” [28:51–37:29]

• Introduction of price caps has killed competition in the UK energy market.
• Energy bills soared from ~£1,100 (2019) to ~£1,765 (2025); peaked over £3,000.
• Government overreliance on imported gas, especially from Norway, makes UK vulnerable.
• Poor planning re: net zero, lack of domestic nuclear build, and regulatory capture blamed for high bills.

Quote:
"The simplest way to make people richer is to get the energy price down." [37:29]

8. The Public Sector, Pay, and Unsustainable Government [51:54–56:18]

• Public sector wage bill: £288 billion—about a quarter of all tax receipts.
• Public sector pay has been rising faster than private sector; increase cost of £15.3 billion.
• Growth driven primarily by health and administration while hospitality and private jobs vanish.

Host Observation:
"So a quarter of our tax receipts is us paying the unproductive part of society." [53:00] – Peter

9. Tax System & Disincentives for Wealth Creation [65:04–68:25]

• Progressive tax rates discourage “wealth generators” and entrepreneurs.
• Calls for a flat tax, or at least a less punitive structure, to encourage productive work.
• Discussion of China's role in global trade imbalances and the logic of tariffs.

10. Immigration, Employment & Demography [69:04–83:04]

• Despite mass immigration, employment growth is not keeping pace.
• Many new arrivals (especially pre-Brexit) “overqualified” for low-wage jobs; Brits pushed out.
• Population growth far outstrips infrastructure (housing, NHS, water).
• Fewer young people, collapsing fertility rates, more elderly—a “demographic time bomb.”

11. The NHS: Sacred Cow or Failing System? [85:29–94:14]

• NHS spending at record highs, but waiting lists and outcomes worsen.
• Jenkins: No comparable country runs a health service quite as the UK does. Suggests more private sector involvement, with NHS focusing on true essentials.
• Nurses especially poorly treated—salaries grew 27% over two decades vs. 44% national average/CPI far higher.
• Hospitals overcrowded, ambulances delayed, middle management bloat evident.

Quote:
"Government policy or inaction is killing people ... government should be investing in those hospitals now. If you think it’s bad now, it’s going to be a whole lot worse in 2040." [93:43] – Jamie Jenkins

12. Crime: Facts vs. Perception [98:28–107:32]

• Official stats say crime overall is down, but survey data and anecdotal evidence show increases in antisocial behavior, shoplifting, sexual crime, and “public order” arrests.
• Significant rise in public order prisoners—65% increase since Starmer came in.
• Jenkins: Shoplifting under £200 effectively decriminalized; police focus on “online hate” over real crime.

Striking Chart:

• Sharp, unprecedented jump in public order offenses since 2024’s general election. [Referenced: 106:24]

13. Government Waste & Public Trust [112:57–116:48]

• Government and councils spend lavishly on PR, diversity managers, and additional politicians while core services atrophy.
• The productivity of the public sector is critically questioned.
• UK debt now at 96% of GDP; Alden’s “event horizon” of 135% default risk noted—Britain’s trajectory is perilous.

Quote:
"If you buy a failing business, the first thing you do is look at what savings you can have ... the Labour Party came in, first thing they did: spend more." [112:56] – Jamie Jenkins

14. How Did We Get Here? Solutions & Political Cynicism [117:10–127:56]

• Neither major party is trusted; both driven by short-termism and narrative manipulation, not reality-based reforms.
• Peter: Policy change must be tied to budgets and taxation must be subject to referendum.
• Jenkins: Tony Blair’s only enduring positive legacy—Freedom of Information Act.

15. Memorable Quotes & Summary

• “We’re stealing from the future” — on debt, house prices, and NHS decline.
• “Virtue is the easiest thing in the world. It’s just words.” [121:24]
• "The facts don’t care about your feelings." [27:43]
• “If you want to know who’s funding asylum costs: it takes the tax of 600,000 people.” [00:00, reprised at 119:02]
• “What has got better in the last 20 years? ... The only thing is Tony Blair’s Freedom of Information Act.” [128:19]

Important Segment Timestamps

• Who is Jamie? [04:50–08:38]
• Left vs Right? [08:38–10:32]
• National Debt & Borrowing [10:32–16:34]
• Media’s Statistical Blindness [19:24–22:04]
• “Taxing the Rich” Fallacy [22:04–23:12]
• Small Boats & Asylum Claims [23:28–27:13, recap at 119:02]
• Energy Price Madness [28:51–37:29]
• Public Sector Pay Explosion [51:54–56:18]
• Risky Taxation & Tariffs [65:04–68:25]
• Population/Infrastructure Mismatch [79:23–83:04]
• NHS Troubles, Waiting Lists [85:29–94:14]
• Crime Waves & Policing Failures [98:28–107:32]
• Debt Crisis, GDP Warning [111:20–113:58]
• What Has Government Improved? [128:06–131:27]

Conclusion

This episode is a sweeping, numbers-first diagnosis of the UK’s woes. From broken economics and housing shortages to energy boondoggles and creeping public sector bloat, Jamie Jenkins delivers hard truths, consistently referencing real data and highlighting where the narratives—on both left and right—very often diverge from reality. McCormack provides a platform for these insights with matching candor, pressing for clear answers and actionable solutions.

Both agree: the future depends on confronting these issues honestly, moving beyond tribalism, and putting numbers before narratives.

Resources

• Jamie Jenkins’ Substack & X/Twitter: @StatsJamie, statsjamie.co.uk
• (For full charts and data breakdowns, visit Jamie’s website and social media.)

Summary prepared for those wishing to understand the data-driven reality of Britain’s predicament—and what politicians and pundits won’t tell you about the nation’s direction.