Podcast Summary

Podcast: The Peter McCormack Show
Episode #149: Kathryn Porter – Energy is Civilisation: Why Power Matters
Date: February 19, 2026
Host: Peter McCormack
Guest: Kathryn Porter (Energy Analyst)

Episode Overview

This episode features energy analyst Kathryn Porter, who discusses the critical state of the UK energy grid, the risks of blackouts and rationing, failures in governance and planning, and the broader implications for Western economies. Porter passionately argues that secure, affordable energy is fundamental to civilizational prosperity, and warns that complacency, overregulation, and misplaced green ideology could have catastrophic consequences if not addressed with urgency and realism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

“Scaremongering”—or Sounding a Necessary Alarm?

• Peter directly asks Kathryn if she is “scaremongering the public with the state of our grid?”
  Kathryn: “Definitely. I am literally trying to scare people, but not for the sake of it, but because it is actually quite scary. And if we don't do something about it, then we have a very realistic chance of rationing and potentially blackouts.” (00:03)
• She warns of a 65–85% probability of electricity rationing by 2030 due to a “cliff edge” in gas power station retirements.
  She explains: Rolling blackouts would mean 4-hour electrical outages by region. (00:23, 39:11)

Complacency and Mismanagement in Energy Policy

• Kathryn blames “complacency and wishful thinking” among policymakers, naming Ed Miliband as an example:

  “He just doesn't listen…we're ending up with policy that's really based on ideology and wishful thinking and not what the system…the grid…can deliver.” (02:09)

• Discusses structural issues: underqualification and lack of accountability among political leaders and civil servants.

  “Most of them are [unqualified]. Hardly any of them have a degree in any sort of a science subject. …This is a problem across Whitehall.” (03:06)

• Cites field trips for DEFRA staff to “learn how farms work”—a symptom of disconnect between policymakers and the sectors they regulate. (03:42)

The Grid's “Cliff Edge” & Risks of Blackouts

• Porter has identified 12 GW (a third) of the UK’s gas-powered fleet at risk of closure within 5–7 years due to age and lack of maintenance.

  “Combined cycle gas turbines…do not run very well on low utilization. …It’s pretty naïve to think all those assets will just remain in the market when a chunk are end-of-life and run reliably in a way they were never designed to operate.” (06:06)

• The government’s clean power plan assumes these aging assets will remain available and only run 5% of the time—an unrealistic scenario that sets the stage for blackouts.

Official Narratives vs. Reality

• Kathryn alleges that supposedly “independent” advice on energy security is politically manipulated:

  “Freedom of Information requests have uncovered that it was far from independent advice...so it means it wasn't independent. And…Ed Miliband…is giving this advice. Well, it's not independent and it's not true.” (08:56)

Catastrophic Consequences of Failure

• Risks include massive price increases, unheated homes and businesses, and preventable deaths.

  “You'd really be relying on a shift team…making those decisions under extreme time pressure. …the whole system will blackout...Next time, they’ll do rolling blackouts. But I think the first time it comes up, they won’t be prepared.” (11:24)

An Example from Spain: Systemic Risks of Renewable-Dominated Grids

• Porter recounts a near-total blackout in Spain caused by a technical fault and the inability of renewables and conventional plants to maintain stability, exacerbated by negative prices.

  “The cause was lack of grid code compliance by renewables. Under weak grid conditions, this is a high risk.” (12:51)

Underinvestment & Lack of Foresight

• Proposes an in-depth analysis project to evaluate reliability of aging gas assets.

  “I’m trying to get funding to do a follow up piece of work because…you can start building a picture of their reliability…£20,000–£25,000.”
  Peter agrees to fund this analysis. (16:59-18:37)

• Highlights critical supply chain delays:
  “A new gas turbine is 7–8 years. A rotor is about five years. Even components for maintenance is now about a year and a half. …You need to be really looking forwards with this.” (18:41)

Data Centers, AI, and Grid Demand

• Discusses the wave of demand from data centers (AI), particularly in the US—but the UK is falling behind.

  “There's huge demand from North America for AI. …People are repurposing aeroplane engines to power data centers. At this rate, we're going to start repurposing lawn mowers.” (18:41–21:14)

Governance and Political Dysfunction

• Argues for constitutional and legislative reform so ministers are qualified, accountable, and properly incentivized:

  “I think we need a constitutional reform...a recognition that you’re voting for the party as well as the individual. …If you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.” (23:40–28:25)

• Critiques “revenge fantasy” populism targeting utility executives while ignoring deeper regulatory and investment failures. Warns that nationalization would worsen matters by putting the worst actors in charge. (28:47–30:55)

A Recent Near Blackout in the UK (Jan 8, 2025)

• Describes the confluence of failures: errors in demand forecasts, costly “blank check” imports of emergency electricity, and a mismanaged reserve system:

  “On paper you can say, okay, well you had X number of megawatts in reserve, but in real life you don’t.” (31:05–35:59)

Lessons from Bitcoin Mining’s Role in Texas Grid Stabilization

• Discusses how Bitcoin miners provide valuable “demand side response” in Texas, something not embraced in the UK due to regulatory and ideological barriers.

  “In our country here, we don’t even look at that. We don’t look at innovative ways of balancing our grid.” (36:05–37:00)

Nobody Is Truly in Charge of Security of Supply

• Fragmentation of responsibility means supply security falls through the cracks.

  “Actually, nobody in Britain has responsibility for security of supply. When the market was designed in 2001, it did. But…the market’s changed and the rules haven’t.” (37:14)

Hard Numbers: What Rationing and Grid Failure Would Mean

• Rolling four-hour blackouts by region, as outlined in government emergency planning. Ireland would also be affected.

  “Ireland is treated as a zone of GB when it comes to rationing...so Ireland then will be turned off on rotation.” (39:22)

The Path Forward: Recommendations for Reform

• Governance must come first—“because right now the government doesn’t run the country.”
  Repeal or rewrite laws and regulations that prevent sensible energy and infrastructure investment. (42:09–43:22)
• Massive Buildout Required: Borrow to build 5–6 Korean-design nuclear stations, rebuild steelmaking, cancel expensive green subsidies and contracts, and radically reduce regulation.

  “I would borrow money to do this...I would issue specific nuclear gilts...ring fenced for building nuclear power stations.” (43:31)

• End Misguided Wind Subsidies:

  “No, it's a really big waste of both capital and natural resources.” (45:35)

Widening the Lens: Economic Crisis and Civilizational Risk

• Kathryn ties the energy crisis to broader financial and social collapse:

  “The reality is Western economies are in bad shape. …I’ve seen credible economists talking about half a dozen Western economies experiencing sovereign debt crises in the coming years. That doesn’t seem farfetched to me.” (58:17)

• Debt and inflation will force brutal austerity measures, slashing benefits and pensions, with increased mortality among the vulnerable.

  “There will be huge cuts to benefits, probably massive cuts to pensions…you'll see a lot of people dying prematurely, which will be, dare I say it, on purpose, because it will lower the cost burden on the States.” (59:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the urgency of energy security:
  “Energy is civilization. If we don’t get a grip of that and help people understand, we do face civilizational risk in this country.”
  — Peter McCormack (58:06)

• On political dysfunction:
  “Most of them are [unqualified]. Hardly any of them have a degree in any sort of a science subject. …This is a problem across Whitehall.”
  — Kathryn Porter (03:06)

• On grid failure risk:
  “There’s a 65–85% probability of rationing by 2030. …That’s based on losing some of these 12 gigawatts of aging gas plant.”
  — Kathryn Porter (15:44)

• On system operator games:
  “It was far from independent advice...so it’s not independent. And…Ed Miliband…is giving this advice. Well, it’s not independent and it’s not true.”
  — Kathryn Porter (08:56)

• On Britain’s economic path:
  “I've seen credible economists talking about half a dozen Western economies experiencing sovereign debt crises in the coming years. That doesn't seem far-fetched to me.”
  — Kathryn Porter (58:17)

• On the consequences of crisis:
  “You’ll end up losing stuff you don’t want to lose just because of desperation. …People who genuinely need support won’t get it.”
  — Kathryn Porter (59:41)

• On policy priorities:
  “We have to focus on the things that really matter...What matters is having the power stations, having cheap energy, lowering taxes on businesses...In the short term, you'll have to fund it with borrowing. There will be no other alternative.”
  — Kathryn Porter (49:17–50:39)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Time | Topic | |----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:03 | Kathryn on "scaremongering" and grid failure risk | | 06:06 | The 12 GW gas power cliff edge | | 08:56 | Political manipulation of "independent" energy advice | | 12:51 | Case study: Spanish grid blackout scenario | | 15:44 | Probability of rationing by 2030 & methodology | | 18:41 | Supply chain delays for energy infrastructure | | 23:40 | Why experts aren't ministers; governance and pay reform | | 28:47 | Water sector, misplaced anger at executives, and nationalization | | 31:05 | January 8, 2025—Near-miss UK blackout explained | | 36:05 | Bitcoin miners in Texas as grid balancers; UK's rigid approach | | 39:11 | Practicalities of four-hour rolling blackouts | | 42:09 | What an energy minister should do; legislative and regulatory reform | | 43:31 | Nuclear buildout, ending green subsidies, and repealing bad policy | | 45:35 | The failings of wind energy and contracts for difference | | 49:17 | AI/data centers, industrial opportunity, manufacturing constraints | | 58:17 | Link to sovereign debt crises in Western economies | | 59:41 | Social consequences: austerity, deaths, and political breakdown | | 65:41 | North Sea gas, pipeline infrastructure, and imminent supply shocks | | 70:59 | Kathryn: “I don’t have to be in government to help.” |

Conclusion

Kathryn Porter offers a sober, unsparing assessment of Britain’s energy and political landscape, warning that only honesty and radical reform will avert rationing, blackouts, and broader civilizational decline. The episode is packed with insights on policy failures, technical risks, and strategic priorities—delivered in a candid, accessible way that underscores the fundamental truth: Energy is civilization, and without realistic, accountable leadership, modern prosperity is at risk.