← The Peter McCormack Show
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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Hello, welcome to the People Comet show. Hope you're doing well. Today is budget day and we're making another show. It's probably the most anticipated budget, I think, in my lifetime. Been talking about it for weeks. Lots of leaks coming out. What are they going to do? Are they going to raise our taxes? Are they going to destroy our businesses? Are they going to destroy the economy more? Yeah, it's going to be exciting day. So listen, we're making a show about it. I've got a little preamble, some stuff I want to talk about. We're going to watch the budget we'll cut during that and then we're going to digest what Rachel Reeves is going to present to the country. So, yeah, very excited about this. And listen, look, this is the second PMQs we made. We made our first one the other day. It's a bit weird for me talking to the camera like this. I've done over a thousand interviews where I have a guest and we do an interview and then we go home. But I am very frustrated with the state of our country. So I made a. If you didn't check out the first one, I did about 52 minute rant and the feedback was pretty good. We're happy with the feedback, right, Con?
- [01:11]
B
Yeah, overwhelmingly positive.
- [01:14]
A
I think we were, we were a bit nervous because I've never done this before. Uh, I've never. I did a little rant in my, in my car at the airport, Luton Airport, and put it out there. And some people were like, yeah, kind of agree with you, Pete. And so Connor said, dad, we need to do this in the studio. We need to do this properly, record it properly. And we did and we put it out there. And I mean, I was a bit nervous, right.
- [01:39]
B
Took about five attempts to get going.
- [01:41]
A
Yeah, about five attempts. And I was like, oh God, they're gonna savage me. No one's gonna listen. But actually the show did pretty well. The feedback was brilliant and it's like, well, fuck it, let's do some more of this. Let's make some more shows where we talk directly to the camera. Obviously. I've got my boy Conor here. How you doing, mate? You good?
- [01:56]
B
Tomorrow?
- [01:57]
A
Excited, Scared. What are you scared of?
- [02:00]
B
I'm scared of what that woman's about.
- [02:02]
A
To do is I. This is probably the first budget you're fully invested in.
- [02:09]
B
Yeah. And I think because it will have direct consequences for me. Right.
- [02:13]
A
Well, the potentially. But the last one did. But I don't remember us talking about it like this.
- [02:20]
B
Yeah.
- [02:23]
A
Oh, well, listen, look, thanks for all the great feedback on that first show. Connor didn't allow me to read the comments. He never does. I did it, though. I had a little look and there was a bunch of questions in there. So we're going to deal with some of those as well. At the end of the show, I'm going to answer some of those questions.
- [02:38]
B
Real life PMQs.
- [02:39]
A
Real life PMQs. Yeah, I love that, man. Uh, but the structure of the show today is I'm gonna talk about some of the things that we've seen leaked about the budget. Some of the things, some of the challenges labor have got. And as I said, we'll watch the budget. We won't, we won't record us watching the budget and then we'll try and digest, see what it means for us, see what it means for the country. But let's. We're driving down this morning. Connor, play that video. Rachel Reeves. This was her the. This morning. She's put out a bit video ahead of the budget. It's obviously, it's a load of bollocks, but we'll watch anyway.
- [03:15]
C
We're cutting hospital waiting lists and cutting the cost of our national debt. Change was never going to come easy. It requires hard work and it requires fair choices. In the past year, we have begun to see the results with wages rising faster than inflation. Hospital.
- [03:32]
A
Like, the first thing on this that I see when I watch this is, it's like, I look at this and I think, do you think we're mugs? Like this overproduced video showing her with NHS staff and some guy in a factory? Because like every. Sorry, Rachel, but everyone kind of hates you.
- [03:52]
B
It's propaganda.
- [03:53]
A
Yeah, it's propaganda. It's propaganda. But like, can't you just be normal? Like, why do you have to get a proper editor in and have that weird kind of psycho soundtrack and place yourself with all these people? Like, why can't you just be a normal person? Because I don't know, it doesn't feel real. It doesn't feel real.
- [04:16]
C
Calming down and our economy growing faster and stronger than people expected. But I know that there is more to do. I know that the cost of living is still bearing down on family finances. I know that people feel frustrated at the pace of change or angry or at the unfairness in our economy. I have to be honest that the damage done from austerity, a chaotic Brexit and the pandemic.
- [04:40]
A
We should have this every time during the. Every time she mentions 22 billion black hole austerity or Brexit, we should play that. I can't watch any more of this. We'll put it in the thing. You can, we'll put it in the show notes, you can check it out. But basically it's just some labor propaganda to prepare us for this budget. Okay, I'm going to try and be, I'm going to try and be as fair as possible I can with labor. I'm obviously conservative, I care about conservative economics. I explained in the last show, I'm a bit of a libertarian in that I prefer smaller government and then just not interfering with all our lives the way they do. But I'm going to try and be fair to them as fair as possible. Because there might be some people listening who are labor voters or people on the left who don't understand or appreciate the kind of economics that we appreciate.
- [05:41]
B
And it's also not like that. Conservices did a great job.
- [05:45]
A
Well, fair point. So conservatives, you're not off the hook. 14 years, you were dogshit, you were absolutely terrible. You didn't do anything which a conservative government does, which is small state private enterprise support, support a private property pro business. You were a leftist party, you were infected by the Liberal Democrats, you had the wets in there, you grew the size of the state, you borrowed a shit ton of money, you put us in a economically precarious position when Labour came into battle. So you're off the hook. But at the same time we should judge Labour now for the decisions they've made. So this is our second Labour budget, right? So in the first labor budget we had a, what Rachel Reeves, she said was a once in the lifetime tax rise to fill the $22 billion black hole. I think it's about 40 billion they raise. So they put national insurance up, they raised cap gains on the lower rate from 10 to 18%, the higher rate from 20 to 24%. They put VAT on schools and they put inheritance tax on farms. A bunch of very unpopular decisions. And these things have consequences. We should talk about that. People who put their kids in private school and I know some of the lefties came out and said, oh well, they can afford it and private school is unfair. Listen, everybody should be able to spend what they earn on what they want. You go to work and you work hard. If you want to spend your money on going to the pub and smoking fags, you should be able to do that. And if you want to spend your money on putting your kids in private school because you want to give your kids the best chance you should be able to do that. And I know, I know a lot of people say, oh, it's unfair that these kids can have that school and other kids can't. That's just life. Everyone gets to make the choices for their kids with their money. And there is a. There is a stark reality, is that when you put that on private schools, you're not affecting the richest in society. They will just look at that line and go, that's annoying. I'll pay that. What? You're affecting it. Those at the margins of being able to afford private schools, the people working a second job or sacrificing a holiday or not upgrade into the house they want, they've said, it's a bit like my dad. They've said the most important thing for them is putting their kids into the best education they can. And that that line made it unaffordable for some. There are people now who have. I mean, I know, I know people who've taken their kids out of private school because they took it from scraping by to do it to not be able to afford it. And that was a terrible, awful decision. And what that meant there, they just made. They just made private school more elitist because most private schools have some kind of entrance exam. And you've basically taken out people on the edges who are trying to give their kids the best and open up more places to the rich. People whose kids wouldn't have passed the exam, who can now get in. So that was just.
- [08:51]
B
And put more pressure on the public sector.
- [08:53]
A
Yeah, more pressure on the public sector because those kids.
- [08:56]
B
Now I have to go to a normal school.
- [08:58]
A
Yeah, let's go to a regular school, which we know is massively underfunded as it is.
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B
Classes getting bigger, Classes getting bigger.
- [09:06]
A
I mean, I've seen it. We own a football club and we made a donation to a bunch of schools to help them buy sports equipment. And just going through that process, you realize how underfunded schools are. And I started to talk to some of the schools. Schools are having to raise money because they don't get enough of government just to be able to do what they want to do. So schools are massively underfunded. It was a terrible decision. And this is the point of economics. Doesn't matter whether you are a Keynesian or it doesn't matter if you're a Hayekian. It doesn't matter what you are. Economics really is a study of human behavior, the decisions people make. And these decisions they have had, had consequences. So, I mean, that's one the other one I do want to talk about is national insurance going up because this is where the Labour government just lied, openly lied to the country. And I've got it from their manifesto. We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible. Labor will not increase taxes on working people which is why we will not increase national insurance. The basic higher or additional rates of income tax will or vat. And then what did they go and do? They went and put raise national insurance for companies. But this is just gaslighting us. And this is where you should bring up that Ronald Reagan video. I think this is the problem we have with this country and it's a fair problem, is that most people voting, they don't really understand economics. They have, it's like a sport, they pick the team. They want to vote for the party, they want to vote for who ideologically say the things that feel right and then you just repeat what they say. But if people really understood economics, they maybe would change who they vote for. And this point on business taxes, there essentially is no such thing as a business tax. Ronald Reagan did a better job though. Play the video west. Right.
- [11:01]
D
Governments, federal, state and local were only taking about 15 cents out of every dollar earned today. They're taking almost half of every dollar earned in the United States. Most people don't realize it because the taxes are hidden in the so called business taxes. You know the politician that stands up and yells, oh let's save the little man, let's tax business. And everybody yells hooray. They haven't figured out that every tax on business is just a part of the cost of production and the customer winds up paying it when he buys the product. It's a hidden sales tax. There's 116 of them in the suit of clothes that each one of us support.
- [11:37]
B
The latter.
- [11:38]
A
Well, so the first point seems normal. That's a normal conversation, right?
- [11:44]
B
Very calm.
- [11:45]
A
Yeah. Speaking honestly.
- [11:47]
B
Yeah.
- [11:48]
A
He's telling the truth to the public.
- [11:50]
B
No stutter, you're out of order.
- [11:55]
A
But like he's not gaslighting them. And that's what it is. You're being gaslit when you're told, oh, this is a business tax. This is like, it's very simple. I'm not sure if. Let's do a little Peter economics here. When you run a business, your goal is to make a profit. And so you have your cost of production. Say you're making this cup of coffee. Your cost of production is all the cost for running the building where you have your cafe, the Beans, you buy the milk, you buy the cup itself. And your staff, if the government comes in and raises employees, national insurance, that's a cost to the business. That's a cost of production, of producing this. So what do I have to do? I have to put up the price of my coffee. So any business tax is a hidden sales tax, but ultimately it is a tax on working people, because working people buy your coffee. So they're just. They're just gaslighting you. And I think this is the point is. Yeah, I don't know. I kind of romanticize looking back at old politics. Like, I show you this con, I'll show you Ronald Reagan. But you go back and you look at the debates at PMQs, the real PMQs from 30, 40, 50 years ago, and it. You feel like these people had some integrity and some intelligence, you look now at the people we have. Your Rachel Reeves, your Keir Starmers, your, you know, Yvette Coopers, your David Lammy's. They're all morons and they're all lying. Well, they're either lying or stupid. They're either no. And therefore they're lying, or actually they are just fic. That might be the sad one.
- [13:32]
B
There is a third Evil humans. Yeah. They know exactly what they're doing. They're happy about doing it.
- [13:39]
A
But this is the thing, I guess why this is. It's good that we get to do this, because I don't have to lie. This is the truth.
- [13:47]
B
And also, you didn't actually bring this up last time we did this, but these things benefit you. Your current position. Like, you would never say this, but it's kind of selfless what you're saying. Like this world that they've created has actually upped your level. Right.
- [14:06]
A
So inflation, this is one of these things, Right. I argue relentlessly. I know you said I shouldn't go on Facebook, Connor, but your Jennifers, your Catherine's, I argue with on Facebook. And I try and explain to them, just, I try and I did it in the last show, the basics of inflation, right? Inflation makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. That's it. And it's very simple what happens. Because if you're rich, you own assets and assets inflate. If you're poor, you don't own assets. And so all that happens is life just gets more expensive. And I try and tell these people, and they're like, no, no, no, you're wrong. No, you're wrong. And you get your Gary Economics and your Zach Polanski, who Have these inflationary ideas that people just accept. They think there's like a money tree out there. So yeah, we have an incompetent government. I'm terrified for the future of this country. But look, I don't care anymore. I've got nothing to lose. I could be honest. Okay, so look, we're going into a budget. The data is terrible. Rachel Reeves, despite everybody warning her about the policies that she was putting into place, the tax changes in the previous budget, despite warning after warning after warning from every economist, she went ahead with it. And we've seen the consequences. Okay, I mean, what, what, what's our real GDP growth predicted at like 0.1% for a quarter? I mean, it's nothing, it's meaningless. We've lost 84,000 jobs in the hospitality sector. The hospitality sector is dying. It's dying because people have less disposable income, so they're going out less and they've made the costs of running the business even higher. But the scariest, what I think is the scariest thing goes back to your point. It's like inflationary, this inflationary environment they've built. They have borrowed in the full fiscal year, borrowing 152 billion. They borrowed 180 billion pounds since they come to power. By the way, do you know how much that is a day? Try and think of the top of your head.
- [16:18]
B
0.500 million, 370 million a day.
- [16:23]
A
Our government has borrowed 370 million pound a day. And that isn't just borrowing, that is stealing from your future, Connor, and your kids future. I've said this before, money is a proxy for time. If you increase debt, you are borrowing from the future of our children and our grandkids. Their borrowings actually double the rate of the Conservatives. It's absolute lunacy. It's total economic destruction. But anyway, look, we've got this budget coming. I'm going to try to be as fair as possible as I can be. Around I would never vote for Labour, but around what they are trying to achieve as a government. Look, I accept democracy. People wanted labor, they voted for Labour. I'm going to try and be as fair as possible. So the challenge they face with this budget is they've been pretty open about this, that they want to keep investing in public services. If we forget my libertarian ideas, if we want public services, if we want an NHS and if we want buses and if we want pensions, then you have to pay for these things. We can have a whole different podcast where we discuss the economic reality of These social programs. But if we're going to have them, they want to invest in them. And there are issues with them. I think the issues are efficiency. I think you could throw aside much money as you want into the NHS and you're still going to have problems. But anyway, they want to keep investors in public services, but they also want to drive growth. The economy is stagnant. They want to drive growth. They want to continue to reduce inflation. Inflation's up. It's actually. I think it was 2.4% under the conservatives. I think it's spiked over 4% under this labor government. It's dropped slightly. But it does mean things are still getting more expensive. They want to reduce inflation. They want to manage the cost of living and they want to cut debt. So let's repeat that. They want to improve public service investments. That's more money into that. They want to drive growth. They want to create an economic environment which is. Yeah. Which is pro business, pro entrepreneur. They want to reduce inflation, which means not expanding the money supply anymore. They want to manage the cost of living. So that means putting more money into people's pockets and they want to cut debt. So, like I try and translate, that is they need more money to spend on stuff and put more money in people's pockets whilst not borrowing as much whilst driving the economy forward. I think it's an impossible. I don't think it's possible to do that.
- [19:00]
B
It's contradicting.
- [19:01]
A
Well, yeah. I mean, look, if we have an environment that is not pro business right now, businesses are closing down. I run businesses. It's hard out there. We are not pro business. So how are you going to drive the economy if you're not pro business? Okay, you want to cut borrowing. It's record borrowing under this government, but they want to cut borrowing. Despite tax receipts likely to go down, they want to reduce inflation. Well, that means they can't keep borrowing. You can't keep expanding the money. They are. They are walking a tightrope going into this budget.
- [19:38]
B
After borrowing 180 billion.
- [19:39]
A
After about 180 billion.
- [19:41]
B
So where are they getting that from?
- [19:45]
A
But I want to be fair to them. We're gonna get. We're gonna. We're gonna listen. We're gonna hear you out, Rachel. We're gonna see what you got to say. I. I think you're as dumb as a rock, but I'm gonna. I'm gonna hear you out, But I think it's a challenge, and I think. I think we're gonna sit here in a couple of hours once the budget's done and go. Yeah, we're gonna. Okay, I just want to talk a little bit about the process ahead of this because also completely lunatic. They delayed the budget for as long as possible. And we've had this weird process for, I don't know, last couple of months where they've almost been testing the water. And look, I can see through this. It's very easy, right? When you step off the. I call it the game of chess. You. If you look at each political party as a side of the chessboard and you figure out who the king, the queen is, who the pawns are, you start to see you can play a role in this. And I've stepped off the chessboard. And once you step off, it's really easy. An idea will come out. Maybe it's raising the minimum wage, or maybe it's raising the tax rate, or maybe it's the milkshake. Whatever it is, it pops out of nowhere. And suddenly every mp, because what happens is they get all their talking points every day. It comes from the central party here. Your talking points go and say this stuff, go and back us up. And then all the influencers, the influential people who are politically aligned to them will start repeating it. And all those on the other side of the chessboard are fighting against it. And you just realize it's just a game of propaganda. It's just a game of, here's a narrative, Go run with it and we'll see what happens. And so I think they've delayed the budget as long as possible because they're in a sticky position and they're trying to figure it out. Yeah. And then we've had all these kind of leaks where I think they've been testing the water. Maybe we'll put 2p on income tax. Yeah, no, that's not going to wash. You promise not to put. Raise taxes on working people. Maybe we'll do a mansion tax. So we've had this ludicrous process, but during that process, we've, We've. We've kind of frozen the country. We've stopped like we were going to. We were going to open a new business. We were thinking of opening a pizza restaurant. We've done all the work, all the research, found the building, done the design. And then I was like, a few weeks ago, I was like, connor, I don't. I don't know if we should do this.
- [22:06]
B
What's the point?
- [22:07]
A
Yeah, what's the point? All the risk is on us. And we're at the whim of these socialist ideas that are utterly destructive to business. So we pause. We're, like, not sure if we're going to do that. And then there's talk of exit taxes and other tax rises and people are just leaving the country. We've seen people have just left the country ahead of the budget, just in case. And it goes, I mean, I don't need to talk about this idea, this, like, tax the rich. That doesn't work because they just leave the country. We talked about that in the last show. But the point is, is the country's been at a standstill, waiting to go, am I going to have a business after November 26th? Am I going to have any money? Am I going to be able to afford my groceries? What's going to happen? And it's. The whole process has been an embarrassment. Just be fucking honest with us. We should bring up that, bring out the Kia Starmer video. Because I, I, I thought this, this was the one with Beth Rigby on Sky News. I thought this was absolutely nuts. Like, I've always doubted Keir Starmer. He's a bit of a wet wipe. He's not, not really. Doesn't really have leadership skills. When I watched this, I was like, oh, my. Yeah, just play the video.
- [23:24]
E
You told me a year ago, days before the 2024 budget in Chogham, you said, we made an absolute commitment that income tax wouldn't go up, national insurance wouldn't go up, their vat, as in working people wouldn't go up. I said that in the campaign. We're going to keep those promises. Will you make that commitment again today? Well, but we're going to set this out in just a few days. You won't, will you? Well, you said that just a few days before the last budget. You did make the commitment before the last budget. You know that the decisions will be made and set out in full in just a few days time. You're not gonna, you'll be able to. Will you make the commitment again now? You won't. You will be able to hold me to account. Beth, when those principles are, when those decisions set up, you won't rule out. You won't rule out tax rises. On the principles will be fairness.
- [24:14]
A
He's just gonna warn the same.
- [24:16]
B
But look, what.
- [24:19]
A
Firstly, I love Beth. Beth Rigby, I think she, she's brilliant at what she does, holding them to account. And she's brilliant there. I don't know what breakfast time would be like if she, she was your mum and you were having a discussion about whether to have cocoa pops or.
- [24:36]
B
You told me yesterday you wanted cocoa pops.
- [24:39]
A
I think she's brilliant. I love her. I think she's great. But look, that. That, for me, is the moment where I'm like, you. Sorry, Kier, man, you can't be Prime Minister anymore. You suck at this. Yeah, You. Like you said in your manifesto you weren't going to raise taxes on working people. You committed to that before the last budget. Rachel Reeves came out and said that. We're now asking you the same question. Beth is asking you that for us. And now you're like, you won't give a straight answer. And you know what? Obviously I think you're a bit of a dick. But if you came out and you were like, yeah, like, be normal. Be like Reagan. If you just came out and you were just like a normal human being and said, look, all right, just need to be honest, you. Yeah, we're fucked. Yeah. The economy is stagnating. We still want to invest in public services. I care about the nhs. We can't afford it. This is what I stand for. This is what I believe in. I'm raising your taxes. This is just the way it is. Accept it. We're going to invest in the nhs. You vote for a Labor, we doing our job. I'll be like, look, I disagree with you, but I. I respect you for at least being honest. But all this bollocks, all this stuff where you're just like, over and over again not willing to answer a question to a journalist. You're wasting our time. We all see through you. He's got. I think he will be gone, by the way. Andy Burnham, West Streeting, I think they're circling him. I think he'll be gone. I don't think he's going to survive the term. And. And that's because he's not a leader. I mean, what does he stand for? Who is he? Whatever. So. So, yeah, I mean, how long we got? 15 minutes until the budget. What do we know? Well, we've had it confirmed that minimum wage is going up. Now, what I'm going to say now is definitely going to annoy people more on the left, because, I mean, the name is a minimum wage. It's the minimum amount of money someone should be paid to do a job, to be able to survive in this economy. But actually raising the minimum wage of young people, I think 16 to 18 year olds are going to raise it above the tenor. Now, I just want to be real about this. When you have a hospitality business, a large percentage probably the biggest line item is your staff costs. You want to be able to get 16, 17, 18 year olds in there and pay them 5, 6, 7 quid an hour. Maybe you want to be able to do that because that allows you to create a business that is profitable. It's also great for the young person. One, they have a job, secondly, they're learning and thirdly, they're contributing to the economy. You do not want high minimum wage for young people. You also want it to be an incentive. I mean, what was your first job? How much did you get paid?
- [27:23]
B
450.
- [27:24]
A
450 an hour.
- [27:25]
B
The Embankment.
- [27:25]
A
Right. My first ever job was 2 pound 30. I don't know about you, but I was like, I want to earn more than two pound thirty an hour.
- [27:32]
B
Well, it's meant to be. Bollocks. Yes. You're meant to be like, this is crap. How do I work hard, do better, get better tips? Like I need to work up the ladder now because I don't want to be on 450 for the rest of my life.
- [27:43]
A
Exactly. And I had that. I £2 30 an hour. I worked in a shop, I didn't want that. I wanted to be the manager and then want my own shop. And that's the point for young people. And most young people live with their parents. When I think all the young people I employ all still live with their parents who are still at school, they're at college. The way the rate should be low allows me to be profitable. Also, we shouldn't be giving them holiday and maternity and paternity and sick. All this stuff has to go. I mean, I wouldn't have a minimum wage, I would let the market set the minimum wage. But the truth is of this decision, raising the minimum wage, it's going to cost jobs. It will lead to some more businesses. Closing. That on top of the NI tax rate is going to make it harder, but it's also going to cost jobs for young people. Because if you look at the marginal difference between the cost of, say, paying a 16 year old and paying a 35 year old with a bit of experience, it's almost worth that little bit extra for the 35 year old to get the experience to make sure that they're just doing the job properly. So, yeah, congratulations, labor, you've just cost, you've cost us more businesses more jobs and more jobs for young people. Terrible decision. You don't know what you're doing. The other thing is this milkshake tax that's coming in. That's quite interesting. They did the sugar tax before now, as a libertarian, I should be firmly against this. I don't need a nanny state. But actually that's the key important question. It's like it's not that I care about the milkshake tax is what is the role of government and what is the role of government in public health. They've come out with this sugar tax because they say they want to protect kids from having too much sugar. That is a lie. The problem they have going into this budget is they're trying to walk this narrow tightrope of not spooking the markets by raising tax too much, trying to drive growth, trying to reduce spend, trying to reduce inflation. So really what it is, it's like what are all the taxes we can go for that are going to allow us to walk that tightrope? We can tax gambling a bit. We can do a mansion tax. It's a bit like the pasty budget.
- [29:51]
B
That we had with it reminds me of when I first started going to parties in your alcohol drawer. I would just take a little bit of each type of alcohol so you wouldn't notice which what I'd taken.
- [30:03]
A
I still can't believe that. What kind of weird concoction.
- [30:06]
B
It was a mess.
- [30:07]
A
We stood at university when I wasn't it but if you were in the used to call it the dirty pint. So you were basically creating a dirty pint from my alcohol.
- [30:15]
B
I was taking the ultimate Long island iced tea to the parties.
- [30:19]
A
I never notice.
- [30:20]
B
Yeah, well, that's the point.
- [30:22]
A
So you had a milkshake. You had a pasty tax on me budget. Can't believe you, man. So that's what it is. They've got to walk a tightrope. And I think the milkshake tax is basically a reflection on that is how do they walk this tight rope? And I. I think it's an impossible job. We're going to sit and watch it and to see what the impact is on. So listen, we're going to cut now. We're going to have a break. We're going to watch the budget. We're going to come back in what, I don't know, an hour and a half. I've seen what Rachel said. See the question she gets back from Kemi and try and digest this. All right, let's. Let's break for Rachel.
- [31:00]
B
All right.
- [31:01]
A
There it is.
- [31:02]
B
We.
- [31:03]
A
We just finished. Finished watching the budget. I got I. I have a lot to say.
- [31:10]
B
Didn't seem that bad to me. Was it a Trojan horse?
- [31:15]
A
I got a lot to say.
- [31:19]
B
It's like.
- [31:19]
A
It's like I've got this kind of weird paradox with it in that obviously I hate it. I think it's a terrible budget. I think she's done a really shitty job and she's gaslit all of us. But if I try and be, you know, because what I would want is this, like, cuts to taxes, scrapping of net zero nonsense, deregulation to drive growth, like, all the things I, as a business owner want and an investor want, and we're never going to get that. But in the world of labor and the tightrope, she, you know, she was trying to walk. I think she's kind of done a good job. But, like, literally, in that little small world of labor voters, ultimately I. It's terrible. I think it's terrible. I've got so many notes here, I don't even know where to start. Okay, like, I think if I could take out a bet, maybe I should check polymarket. If I could take out a bet on what she said with regards to borrowing, that there would be. What is it she put. I put a note down on here. Like, by the way, if you can hear loads of horns beeping in the background, that was the farmers. They defied government and went and protested the budget anyway. And all the tractors are going down the street beeping their horns. You might hear that in the background. But anyway, what did she say? Borrowing will fall as a share of GDP in every year of this government. And she was talking about a surplus. If I could bet against that, I bet it would be wrong. I do not trust OBR forecasts in the slightest because they've been wrong so many times. And I think she's not going to drive growth. I think we're going to have higher unemployment, we're going to have higher inflation than expected. And ultimately, to fund all the crazy shit she wants to do, she's going to have to borrow more. So ultimately, I think this is one of these ones where what she hopes and the reality are going to just be two different things. So that's the first point.
- [33:25]
B
Well, I sound weird about. A lot of the projection she was talking about was there was minimal adjustments in them in the terms of this current labor government. But the second, it got to 20, 29 to 30. You saw these massive jumps. It was like, oh, yeah, no, you got to keep us in for that last two years.
- [33:46]
A
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like, it's going to be really hard this year. We're going to have record borrowing double what the conservatives does. It Might fall a little bit like next year, but because growth, because of growth in like three, four years time, everything's going to be great. Yeah, it's just, it's just bollocks. But. Okay, so where do I even start on this? Let's start with, let's start with what I think they're doing. Okay. You have to think about what is the role of government, not what should it be, which is to keep us safe and create an environment for prosperity and happiness. It's to retain power. And so when you make decisions as a government, what are the things that kind of entrench a base that you maintain your votes? And I think what they're doing is they know the middle class is no good for them at the moment. They've absolutely screwed the middle class. I mean the Conservatives screw the middle class, but they've screwed the middle class with constant tax rises. They basically, the things they are punishing are going to work. Saving, investing and running a business. All those things are getting punished. What is being supported is people who aren't working, which is pensioners, young people who aren't yet in work and people who survive on welfare. And if you're one of those people, when it comes to the next election and you look at your options, you're going to go, do I, if you're a pensioner, do I keep. Do I want a Conservative government who's talking about changes to the triple lock pension system or do I vote. A Labour Party has delivered a 1% above inflation growth in your pension. And if you're a young person who's never. Because young people don't really vote Conservative, if you're a young person, you're like, well, they've increased the minimum wage and I mean that's. Yeah, they've done programs to support. I think they've frozen the, what's the, it's the like the rate on. Where is it? That's fine in my nose. I've got so many notes here. But the student loans payback, they've frozen that. And if, if you're, if you're cutting energy costs for people who can't afford it and if you're providing, cutting the child to 2 cap benefit, all those people, if you come to a next election, if you rely on government, if you live off the state, you're not going to vote against that. So I think that's what they're doing. But actually I think what they're really doing is they are splitting their votes between the lunatics in the Green Party. A few, obviously, Lib Dems and probably reforming conservatives, but primarily I think they're going to. If you're one of those people getting up every day, going to work, trying to save, you're in the middle class, you're probably handing that voter reform. And if you're one of those like crazy, you know, lefties who want even more spending and even more support, you're probably handing that vote to the Green Party. And do you know what I think is another thing, Connor? Like there's something quite sinister, I think, going on with this Labour government. Because even if you forget all the individual items, one of the things Ed Davey brought it up hidden in the OBR report is there's still 1.8 billion in there for digital IDs. Okay, digital IDs. Way to track us. David Lammy coming out this, this week and saying outside of major criminal acts that there won't be a right to a jury trial. That's like a fundamental right of citizen within a democracies to a jury trial. Because the judiciary is the establishment, judges are part of the establishment. The reason you get the right to a jury trial is because you don't trust the establishment. You want your peers, your fellow man to judge you. They want to get rid of that. We've, if you couple that with the attacks on free speech, the number of people arrested for tweets, it starts, you start to look at this and go, this is becoming quite an authoritarian government about control. Yeah, control. So they take away from the hard working people who get up every day and go to work. They give it to those not working, but they clamp down on your civil liberties, so you can't complain. They want to add digital IDs to track you and remove your jury trial. I mean, this is very authoritarian and this is one of the warnings, like out to fucking socialists. I always say the thing about socialism is eventually it requires strong authoritarian state to maintain it. If you look at North Korea, like the worst socialist country there is, if you try and leave, you're going to get shot. You look at what's happened in Venezuela, you look what happened in East Germany. Socialism can seem okay at first, but to maintain it, eventually you have to clamp down on free speech, the pressure. And you always end up with people wanting to escape that country. And it's like the boiling of the frog, you know, the boiling of the frog. This is what's happening for those people who buy this bullshit. They are the frog. They are the boiling frog. And this, this is why I'm so against this stuff. And so this is, this is like the underlying thing whereby we can sit and talk about this tax rise, that tax rise. Actually, the thing that concerns me is how much control is coming from this government and how authoritarian they're becoming. And that's why I'm looking under the bonnet. And this is why when they talk about the savings of the money here or the taxes they do there. 1.8 billion in for digital IDs, an idea that comes from Tony Blair, who wanted to completely take control away from the electorate and give it to the state. And that's, that's the thing that concerns me. But let's still get in some of the detail. Firstly, I thought Kemi was a savage. I thought it was hilarious, her takedown of Rachel Reeves. And I don't think this, like, for me, this doesn't undo all the shit of the previous conservative government, but I think she did a good job. She held her to account. Taxes have gone up now in both of these labor budgets, despite the promises of it not happening. And she's right. These are broken promises from their manifesto. The freezing of the tax thresholds is just going to drag more people into higher taxes because what you want is wages to climb above inflation, or at least just match inflation, so you're not being made poorer. But when your wages go up and they don't move the thresholds, you end up paying more tax, essentially. And so that is a tax rise. They've gaslit that as a tax rise. And whilst they've been hiking taxes for the working people, hiking taxes for people who want to save, making it more difficult to do business, they're increasing the welfare budget. Now, this is where I am going to slightly contradict myself, because the one thing is, the one thing I'm not, that will take me away from my libertarian conservative ideas is that there are a lot of kids living in poverty in this country. You cannot escape that. We have high levels of poverty in this country. And as conservative as I want to be and as conservative, I want my economics. At the same time, when a government sets its budget, starts moving things around, like, all right, get rid of the 2 trial cap, get rid of that, find 3 billion from elsewhere, get rid of digital IDs, give that money to people who've got the more than two children who are struggling because there are parents in this country who are having to make decisions on how they feed their children and having to make decisions on can they put the heating on. That's nothing you've ever had to worry about or I have to worry about. And I am conscious of that.
- [42:35]
B
So am I. But I just wonder, do you fix that by giving people shit or do you fix it by giving them people the incentives to go and earn that? Oh, don't get me wrong, like, is this just another feel good thing? Which when you say at face value, how could you disagree with that? Right. But what's the hidden undertone? The two child benefit cap I hate completely. Like this might be a really bad analogy, but if I want a BMW but I can't afford it, I don't get that BMW. If you can't afford to have children, why should you be having children at the expense of everyone else?
- [43:16]
A
And your point's right. But there are people who are in relationships and the relationships break up and there are shithead parents, usually on the male side, who just abandon their children. Okay, that it happens or there is a death or there is an illness that just puts people in a very difficult position. And as libertarian as I want to be is, yeah. I still think there's a place in society to try and help and protect the poorest in society. Now I'm going to address your point. But if you look at the entire budget, the 1.15 trillion or whatever government spends, I'm okay with saying there's other stuff I'd rather think about than the 3 billion there. Now the bigger point I think you're making, which is right, is the way we create dependency in this country. It's like free school meals. There are kids in this country who go to school hungry. We know that. And free school meals sound like a great idea. But the problem with it is for me is once you've provided that there are parents who used to feed their kids in the morning who now don't have to and they use that money elsewhere to undo that, you're going to put those parents in a position whereby they don't have that money anymore. And that is creating the dependency that is creating that welfare cliff that's hard to get out of. And so I don't, I. Look, I don't want to have an argument about helping the poorest in our society. There's, I think there's bigger things we can argue about and question within this budget is that, I mean there's, there's another thing that's coming. The new employment laws are coming in. So the new employment legislation, Add to the NI tax, add to the new minimum wages. What you're doing is you're making it very hard for A lot of businesses to survive and they won't. As we said earlier, 84,000 jobs lost in the hospitality sector. That's only going to get worse. We run hospitality businesses, we know that what they should be doing is deregulating, not new regulation deregulating. They should be making an attractive environment for entrepreneurs and people to invest. And they've just not done that. And what they've done is they, as I said, they've punished. It's like you always say, you try and do things right and government makes it harder. You keep saying that if you get up and go to work, you're going to pay more tax. If you save, you're going to pay more tax. If you try and run a business, it's going to be harder for you and you're going to have more tax. It's just there's. They've just made every single thing harder and that is two budgets in a row. They've made everything harder and they are not setting our country on the trajectory for success. Which is why if there's an opportunity to bet in polymarket or something about whether their borrowing will drop or whether it'll go up, I would bet it will go up. Because it's like with our football. We own a football club. You set a budget and then all these costs come out of nowhere. You just have to pay them. I think it's the same for the government. And so ultimately I just think this is an absolute failure. But they're constrained by what they are ideologically as a Labor government, they're constrained by their backbenchers. And so, yeah, I think within, if I put my labor voter hat on and what they have to do within what they are as a party, I think she did, did a good job. If I put my personal hat on and I think about the future of this country, I think it's a disastrous budget and it's going to make us more welfare dependent, it's going to make us poorer, we're going to see lower growth, we're going to see higher inflation. Everything single measure of success in this country is going in the wrong way. And every single failure is going in the wrong way. And I think it's just going to get worse and worse and worse. I think, I think as a country we deserve a better government.
- [47:27]
B
There did seem to be some good within that. Go on investing in nuclear power.
- [47:32]
A
Yes, yes.
- [47:32]
B
Small modular nuclear reactors by Rolls Royce.
- [47:36]
A
Yep, we agree with that.
- [47:37]
B
Projected to go down to 83.2% debt to GDP. It's better than where we're at. The one you will like PCC removed.
- [47:48]
A
Yeah. Yeah. Well, that's a waste.
- [47:50]
B
Selling government assets which we no longer use.
- [47:53]
A
Yeah, well, yeah. I mean, Gordon Brown did that with the gold and missed out on tens of billions for this country.
- [48:00]
B
Face to face assessments for disability benefits which got scrapped. And then removing luxury vehicles on motability.
- [48:08]
A
Yeah. All good things. Okay.
- [48:11]
B
Is the underlying look.
- [48:13]
A
It's two things if you want to move this country forward. We need a massive amount of growth and there's nothing in there that is going to drive growth. I'm not going to invest anymore, create any new businesses based on this because they've made it harder.
- [48:24]
B
That was the funniest thing to me. I think the loudest cheer was going, we're going go from 1% growth to 1.5%, 0.5 OBR.
- [48:34]
A
By the way, the OBR leaking the details of this budget ahead of the. I mean, it's just a clown show. You had MPs on there during PMQs. Their PMQ is not mine. On their mobile phones looking at the budget because it'd been. I mean, that's just a constant clown show with this. With this government. Yeah. I mean, look, I'm with Kemi. There's no growth and there's no plan for growth. And kemi said there's 1 million more claiming universal Basic credit under this. So it's. Yeah, it's. It's hugely disappointing. What's going to happen now is we're going to have another year of misery and shite waiting for another budget. And I think she's going to come cap in hand and saying we want more. And the weird thing is, right, she actually said. What was the quote? I actually wrote it down and put it in capital letters. Today I'm asking everyone to make a contribution. We have William Clouston in here from the SDP and said, look, we need real austerity. And that starts with. Did he say the Prime Minister should come in and say every MP is going to take a 20% pay cut and we as a country have to go through real austerity, really cut back so we can drive growth. And if a government did that, I would accept it. But it's not doing that. All it's doing is taking more from those who work, save and build businesses and give it to. So basically taking from the productive part and giving it to the unproductive part, but doing nothing to drive growth. Nothing at all. And so, yeah, there might be a little. There might be some Crumbs here. That sound good. But we have to get this country moving and there's nothing in there to get this country moving. And so we're going to see all the responses. It's going to push more people towards Zach Polancy's lunatic absolute lunacy with regards to economics, which, by the way, it's quite funny. She ripped him, didn't she?
- [50:41]
B
She did.
- [50:42]
A
The hypnotist.
- [50:43]
B
Yep.
- [50:43]
A
She even implied that he's the boob whisperer. Well, I thought it was quite funny. So, yeah, look, my main concluding points are the doom loop. The decay will continue. 100%. It will continue. We aren't going to see any growth. The decay of this country will continue under this government because they will not make the tough choices. There is a continual attack and squeeze of the middle class. They're just, they're just, they're just attacking the middle class, the rich people. There's nothing in here that's really going to harm the rich people. You know, a mansion tax on properties of two million or five million, like another two and a half grand here a year, another five grand a year if you own. Not everyone I know, but most people I know own a house that's either 2 or worth 2 or 5 million. They can afford that without, without even thinking about it. A bit like the VAT that they put in school fees. Most could afford it. And like, as I said before, I have absolute sympathy with the idea the rich have got richer and the poor have got poorer under successive governments because of inflation. We've explained why that happens, I've explained it. I don't need to go through that again. And a certain rebalancing is fair. But there's nothing in here that really attacks wealth. There's everything in here which is going to see a continuation of inflation which is going to make the rich richer and the poor poorer. There is more dependency created for the poorest in society and more of a squeeze on the middle class. So it's just more of the same. And then that final point is I'm very nervous about how authoritarian this government's getting. Digital IDs, jury trials going, attacks on free speech, that's continuing. And I think the final point I'll leave you on, I think this, this government is so desperate that most of what they've put a lot in here for young people. Now, if you look at what they're doing, we know young people just don't vote conservative very much. Maybe some in private schools, the majority of youngsters vote left wing labor Or Green. They want to lower the voting age to 16, which is a terrible idea. Sorry. Anyone thinks. I think it's a terrible idea. So if you look at the lower in the voting age for 16 year olds, more money on welfare, supporting the old people of this country, they are trying to get votes from the people who don't really work and contribute to this country. And that to me is cynical, sinister and just outright dangerous. So we'll digest this. We'll drive home. We'll digest this. And I think we're gonna have to do a follow up show at some point as well. But I think there's, there is no world where this labor government gets a second term. I don't know who goes first, Rachel Reeves or Keir Starmer, but neither are going to survive till the next election. And this country is going to decay all the way through to the next election. And I'm. Yeah, I feel sad for everybody who gets up and goes to work, who tries to build a business, who tries to do the right thing because they've just been punished for a second budget in a row. Yeah. All right, so thank you.
- [54:30]
B
Do you want to do some questions?
- [54:32]
A
Yeah. All right. Before we close out, we'll do some questions. These are questions on YouTube, right.
- [54:36]
B
Previous show.
- [54:36]
A
Okay.
- [54:37]
B
Someone asked to create billionaires, you have to transfer wealth from the poor and the middle class to the rich. How can we just make the pie bigger and benefit everyone? It's a zero sum game.
- [54:49]
A
Well, this, it depends what they mean by their question. Because there is a transfer of wealth from the poorest in society and the middle class to the rich through inflation, which we've touched upon. But there are people who think business owners who become millionaires and billionaires only do it by extraction from the workers. It's very much a Marxist idea that you rely on these people and more should be shared across. Look, we have to stop looking at GDP and start looking at GDP per capita. We have to produce more than we spend. We have to create a successful, prosperous economy. We have to drive investment into this country. There's a lot of talk about inequality. I see inequality is a terrible thing, but it's. I think you need nuance with this. If there is inequality, like the rich are getting richer but the poor also getting richer and the whole pie is growing. That's a good thing. All right. Some people benefit more. It's like the elastic band. If you hold the elastic band here and you stretch it in one direction and everyone's getting richer, that's fine. It's when you stretch it from both sides and the richer getting richer and the poorer get poorer, that's not a good thing. So to answer the question is we just have to create a successful, prosperous economy that creates jobs, creates wealth that doesn't debase our currency, that allows wages to grow faster than assets, and then everybody has an opportunity.
- [56:33]
B
I think I saw this one quite a bit, actually, after it was about voting.
- [56:37]
A
Yeah, yeah, I just saw.
- [56:39]
B
Peter, I agree with so much of what you say. However, my only gripe is you have a very political podcast, yet keep banging on about how you don't vote. Everyone has to vote, especially in the next election.
- [56:50]
A
Well, you don't have to vote. There's no legal. Like in Australia, you legally have to vote. There's no legal requirement to vote in this country. And actually, it's a bit like that Daniel Priestley thing. Most people have run businesses, don't care too much about politics in that they're constantly trying to build businesses and outperform whatever shitty things, whatever shitty government does. But occasionally, when government gets so terrible, you have to step in. I refuse to vote for decline. And if I think all the options available in front of me are declined, I'm not going to vote. And then I have to justify my vote. Why do I want to justify voting for decline? And I also think not voting is kind of a vote because with every election, we measure voter turnout. If voter turnout's low, there's an apathy in the nation. I think it's an important thing to know, like, you gotta earn my vote. I don't even have to live in this country. You don't have to. Nobody does. Nobody has to live. I want to live in this country. I love this country, right? We could go and live anywhere. We go and live New York, Louisiana, Spain. We choose to live in Bedford. Bedford, England. And we choose to live there because we love it. We love being local, you know, being local and having our friends around. So we make that choice. We don't have to be there and we don't have to vote. So a country has to earn your right and the party has to earn your right. So, no, I'm not going to vote unless I believe a party will actually make this country better. And until then, I'm not voting. So sorry if you don't like that is how it is.
- [58:24]
B
You would vote for austerity because it won't actually affect you because you're rich. So it's easy for you to say.
- [58:31]
A
Yes, it is easy for me to say, but it does affect me, affects me, affects my companies, affects the people around me. If I have to let people go in a business, that's terrible, I have to close a business, I have to lose money. So it will affect me, but punish me more. Like, if a government came with an austerity plan which was, we're all going to have to sacrifice for this, every single one of us, and the rich have to sacrifice a bit more, but this is what we're going to do to turn our country around, I would support it. I would pay a disproportionate amount. What I don't want to do, which other people I know don't want to do, is have growing taxes alongside a country going to shit. Why? Why would we pay more tax for things to get worse all the time? So they made a good point. But I would support an austerity that punishes the rich more with a real plan to drive growth in this country, to turn this country around, to get the economy moving, to get people back into work, to get, you know, to get the NHS really working, I would support that.
- [59:47]
B
Yep.
- [59:48]
A
All right, thanks for listening. Please do subscribe. Please do give us your feedback, send us some questions. We did have a couple other good comments. People enjoying Connor Cam. We know we've got some new younger female listeners. My son's so fucking handsome. Love you all. Thanks for listening. Thanks for watching. Drop me some questions. Subscribe to the show. We will see you all soon.