The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Episode: CPI Hits 3.3%, Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low — Stagflation Is Here

Host: Peter Schiff
Date: April 11, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Peter Schiff analyzes the latest economic data — including the jump in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.3% and a record low in consumer sentiment — to argue that the U.S. is now experiencing true stagflation: a toxic mix of slow economic growth and surging inflation. Schiff critiques recent political events, notably Trump's handling of the Iran war and economic messaging, sharply contrasts official government narratives with economic realities, explains why traditional inflation metrics understate the real problem, and maintains a bullish outlook on precious metals as a hedge against what he sees as worsening economic conditions.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geo-Political Catalyst: Iran Ceasefire and Oil Markets

• Ceasefire Announcement (Taco Tuesday): Trump announced a sudden two-week ceasefire in the conflict with Iran.

  • Schiff asserts Trump was looking for an exit from a conflict he “couldn’t win,” saying Iran’s negotiating position is now stronger.

    “Trump was basically looking for a way out of the jail that he put himself in because there was no way for him to carry out his threat…” (01:00)

  • Schiff believes Trump will “spin” any outcome as a win, regardless of objective facts.

• Effect on Oil & Markets:

  • Oil initially surged to $112 on war threats, then dropped sharply to $96 after the ceasefire.
  • Despite the dip, oil remains 50% higher than before the war started, reflecting minimal real relief.

    “All oil did is it rallied big when Trump ratcheted up the tension and then came back down when he dialed it back... Oil is about where it was two weeks ago.” (06:36)

• Winners and Losers:

  • Schiff claims Iran is in a stronger position post-ceasefire.
  • U.S. administration will "call it a victory" for domestic optics.

2. Market Recap & Precious Metals Rally

• Gold & Silver:

  • Gold settled at ~$4,745/oz, up just under 2% on the week.
  • Silver outperformed, up 4.75%, closing around $75–76/oz.
  • Mining stocks and the GDX index climbed 5%.
  • Notably, gold spiked on the announcement of peace, and sold off on war — contrary to typical safe-haven logic.

    “The reaction to gold, the immediate reaction where gold rallied on peace and it was selling off on war, is the opposite of what people would expect.” (16:28)

• Stock Markets:

  • The Dow rose 3%, Nasdaq 4.2%, bitcoin up ~5.5% (to ~$73,200).
  • The dollar Index fell from above 100 to 98.5.

• Interest Rates:

  • 10-year Treasury yield dropped slightly to ~4.3%; 30-year at 4.92%.

3. Inflation: Data and Denial

• Stamps as a “Real” Inflation Bellwether:

  • U.S. Postal Service raised the price of a Forever Stamp by 5% (to $0.82), up 49% since 2020 — more than double the CPI’s official 25–26% for the same period.

    “That is a better government indicator of the cost of living than the CPI. The government lies about the CPI, they don’t lie about what they charge you to buy a stamp.” (18:01)

• March CPI Data:

  • CPI rose 0.9% month-over-month — triple the February rate.
  • Year-over-year CPI jumped from 2.4% to 3.3%.
  • Excluding food & energy, CPI at 2.6% but still rising.

• Core Message:

  • “We were headed in the wrong direction before the war and now we're headed in that wrong direction even faster.” (21:21)

• Money Supply:

  • M2 up 5% YoY; Schiff points to this as the “real” rate of inflation (not oil prices).
  • The Fed’s balance sheet has grown by $200 billion in 2026 (to just below $6.7 trillion), indicating ongoing “quantitative easing.”
  • Schiff insists, “The war doesn’t cause inflation. It’s the way we pay for it.” (30:39)
  • Warns proposed defense budget hike (from $1 to $1.5 trillion) guarantees even more money printing and inflation.

  “Inflation is an increase in the supply of money and credit...The Fed is cranking up the presses.” (29:14)

4. Economic Data: Stagflation Evidence

• Personal Income & Spending:

  • February: Personal income dropped 0.1% (expectation: +0.4%), spending up 0.5% — the difference covered by a plunge in the savings rate (to 4%).
  • Real incomes are falling, pinching consumers.
  • Food inflation especially bad (“chop meat up 20% since COVID”).

• PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures):

  • February core PCE up 0.4% MoM (annualized 5%).
  • Year-over-year: 3% (Fed’s preferred, but undercounts inflation according to Schiff).

• GDP:

  • Q4 2025 GDP revised downward to 0.5% (annualized), well below the previous estimate (1.4%).
  • 2025 real GDP growth: just 2.1% (less than during Biden years).
  • Schiff: “That is what Donald Trump calls the greatest economy in the history of the world… 2.1%.” (35:33)
    • Compares Trump’s numbers negatively to Biden’s.

5. Record Low Consumer Sentiment

• April Consumer Sentiment:
  • “Plunged to 47.6 from 53.3. That is the lowest it's ever been in the history of this survey.” (41:07)
  • Schiff emphasizes this is lower than during any time of the Biden presidency or the 2008 financial crisis and shows widespread public pessimism.
  • He criticizes partisanship: MAGA Republicans see no inflation, because “Trump says there's no inflation and they believe him.”
  • With independents, Trump’s economic approval is at an all-time low.

6. Schiff’s View: The Reality of Stagflation

• “We’ve got a weak economy and we’ve got rising inflation… In 2026, the way the government measures it, the CPI will probably be higher than at least three of the four years that Biden was president.”
• Schiff predicts consumer prices during Trump’s second term will rise more than in Biden’s four years, while economic growth will lag.
• National debt could reach $50 trillion by the end of Trump's term, with dire inflation consequences.
• Repeats the classic stagflation diagnosis: “The economy is going to get weaker, inflation is going to get stronger.” (46:09)

7. Investment Advice: Gold, Silver, and Mining Stocks

• Bullish Call:
  • “Gold is not going to stay below $5,000 for long… This is a major uptrend.” (48:11)
  • Silver: “We are going to take off in the price of silver. This is the best environment.” (48:24)
  • Dan mining stocks (esp. GDX index) and names like West Red Lake Mining as top opportunities.
• T Gold Account:
  • Urges listeners to set up T Gold accounts for easier metals exposure.
• “If you’re bullish on gold and silver, you really should have positions in the mining stocks as well as the metals themselves.” (49:27)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Political Spin:

  “Trump is going to put positive Trumpian spin on it. So he doesn't even really care how much the U.S. has to lose to win this war. He just wants to end it…” (02:40)

• On Inflation Causality:

  “High prices don’t cause inflation. The government causes inflation.… It’s what the Fed does in response to oil prices going up.” (16:09)

• On Forever Stamps vs. CPI:

  “That is a better government indicator of the cost of living than the cpi. The government lies about the cpi, they don't lie about what they charge you to buy a stamp.” (18:01)

• On Deteriorating Standards of Living:

  “People are being forced to dip into their savings. They're going to be dipping in a lot more in March… things are getting expensive.” (32:32)

• On Stagflation:

  “We've got a weak economy and we've got rising inflation… It's going to get weaker, inflation is going to get stronger. The Fed is on hold until it eventually cuts…” (46:09)

• On Investment Advice:

  “Buy gold this weekend. Buy silver at 75 and change… If you’re a Schiff Gold customer, you’re not really a Schiff Gold customer until you also have a T Gold account…” (48:11)

Key Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment | |---------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00–03:30 | Ceasefire impact, Trump’s framing, Iran's diplomatic win | | 05:00–10:00 | Precious metals & markets roundup | | 16:28 | Gold’s counterintuitive reaction to war/peace | | 18:01 | Postal stamp price as “real” inflation marker | | 20:20 | March CPI breakdown, inflation accelerates | | 29:14 | Money supply and Fed’s ongoing QE | | 32:32 | Consumer struggles, income vs. spending | | 35:33 | GDP growth: Trump vs. Biden comparison | | 41:07 | Consumer sentiment plummets, partisan perceptions | | 46:09 | Stagflation declared: economy weaker, inflation higher | | 48:11–50:40 | Gold/silver outlook, investment strategy |

Conclusion

Peter Schiff delivers a bleak assessment: inflation is surging, growth is stagnating, and the government’s “spin” — especially under Trump — is increasingly divorced from economic reality. He disputes mainstream and political narratives, insisting real inflation is far higher than reported and that policy responses (not supply shocks or wars themselves) drive up prices. While the picture for most Americans is painful, Schiff maintains that historically, such periods produce strong, sustained bull markets in gold, silver, and mining stocks.

Useful for listeners who want:

• A critical, data-heavy breakdown of recent economic trends
• Analysis of political messaging vs. underlying reality
• An understanding of how Schiff sees stagflation playing out — and how to potentially defend against it via precious metals

Non-content segments and ad reads have been omitted from this summary.