The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Episode: Fed ADMITS They're TOTALLY WRONG About Inflation
Host: Peter Schiff
Date: March 19, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Peter Schiff dissects the latest Federal Reserve decision to leave rates unchanged, scrutinizes recent inflation and economic data, and eviscerates both the Fed’s outlook and President Trump’s economic narrative. With characteristic candor and sharp critique, Schiff argues that inflation is roaring back and the Fed is both unable and unwilling to fight it—putting the U.S. economy in a dangerous position reminiscent of, but even more precarious than, the 1970s stagflation era.

Key Topics & Insights

1. Recent Economic Data Paints a Gloomy Picture

Timestamps: 01:30–17:00

• GDP Growth Weakness:

  • Q4 GDP rose just 0.7% (annualized) – “Not even 1% economic growth.”
  • 2025 GDP growth was 2.2%, compared to 2.8% in Biden’s last year, undermining Trump’s “miraculous turnaround” claims.
  • “For all of 2025, GDP grew at 2.2%. That’s 20% below the 2.8% GDP growth from Biden’s last year...so what is this guy talking about when he’s talking about a boom? It’s all a fantasy.” [04:01]

• Producer Price Index (PPI) Spike:

  • February PPI +0.7% (vs. 0.3% expected). Annualized, this would be over 8% inflation.
  • Core PPI (ex-food & energy) up 0.5% m/m, 3.9% y/y (double the Fed’s 2% “target”).
  • Immediate sell-offs in gold and silver as traders anticipated fewer Fed rate cuts.

• Schiff’s Analysis:

  • Higher producer prices will inevitably filter through to consumers.
  • The reaction that “hot inflation = bad for gold” is, in Schiff’s view, a serious misreading of economic reality:
    • “The Fed’s failure to hike is bullish for gold. Because it’s not nominal rates that count. It’s real rates. That’s what matters. And if inflation surges and the Fed sits on its hands ... real rates are plunging.” [15:40]

2. The Fed’s Policy Response—Paralysis and Denial

Timestamps: 18:00–37:00

• FOMC Outcome:

  • No change in rates (3.5–3.75%). One dovish dissent; not a single member favored a hike.
  • Schiff lambasts the Fed for its “gross understatement” of both inflation (“somewhat elevated”) and housing (“massively weak”).

• Fed Deliberations:

  • Powell: Policy isn’t on a “preset course,” remains “data dependent.”
  • Fed claims readiness to cut if the labor market weakens or inflation improves, but will merely “not cut” if inflation worsens—no appetite for hikes.
  • “Powell basically said...we think the Fed funds [rate] is pretty much going to stay in the current neighborhood, 3.4, maybe as low as 3.1 over the course of the next year. So maybe a cut.” [31:51]

• Schiff’s Take:

  • The Fed’s logic is circular—forecasting lower inflation not from evidence, but from their own mandate.
  • “They believe they’re gonna make progress on inflation because they believe they’re going to achieve their mandate. Because their mandate is 2%, they forecast 2% inflation. Not because there’s any actual evidence ... it’s all based on belief. And the belief is based on nothing other than a wish.” [36:15]

3. Housing Market on the Brink

Timestamps: 20:00–27:30

• “Housing market is a bigger bubble now than it was in the 2000s,” Schiff warns, predicting a larger nationwide real estate decline and financial crisis.
• Mortgage applications collapsed (refinances down 18.5%, total index down ~11%), even as GSEs (Fannie/Freddie) buy more MBS to prop up the market.
• “People are starting to realize that Fannie and Freddie insure something like $7 trillion of mortgages. And if this is a real estate bubble...massive losses are coming for these GSEs, probably bigger than the losses that bankrupted them last time.” [23:02]

4. The FOMC Press Conference: Unpacking Powell’s Answers

Timestamps: 39:00–57:00

• Market Reaction:

  • Gold down nearly $200, silver off $4+, Dow down over 700 points.
  • A specific Q&A moment triggered the final sell-off:
    • When asked about raising rates, Powell admits "the possibility...that the next move on rates could be a hike...was raised," but immediately dismisses it as unlikely. [46:20]
  • “There are two things that the Fed is considering, cutting rates or not cutting rates. They’re not considering hiking rates. But by any objective measure, that’s what they should do.” [47:05]

• Stagflation Denial:

  • Powell dismisses current conditions as “anything close to stagflation,” citing lower official unemployment/inflation than the 1970s.
  • Schiff retorts:
    • Measurement methodology changes make modern data incomparable with past decades.
    • “If you double our inflation rate and double our unemployment rate, you get similar to what we had for most of the 1970s, which we concede was bad. We have the same thing today. We’re just not acknowledging it.” [49:55]
    • Today’s debt situation is far more dangerous—debt-to-GDP now 125% vs. 34% in 1980.

• Sovereign Debt Crisis Looms:

  • “If interest rates just went to 10%...that’s $4 trillion a year in interest. The government only collects $5.4 trillion in taxes ... our interest expense [could] exceed 100% of our tax revenue.” [53:12]
  • War spending will accelerate the fiscal crisis.

5. The Fed’s Global “Excuse” and Powell’s Future

Timestamps: 61:16–63:25

• On Global Inflation:

  • Powell blames worldwide pandemic era inflation to dodge blame, but Schiff calls this “all BS”:
    • “The reason inflation happened all over the world is central banks all over the world made the exact same mistake. That doesn’t get the Fed off the hook. In fact, it proves it!” [61:30]

• Powell’s Job Security:

  • Powell refuses to resign while under criminal investigation, using it as leverage with the Trump Administration.

6. Investment Advice & Conclusion

Timestamps: 65:03–End

• Schiff urges listeners to take advantage of mispricing in gold/silver/mining stocks, maintaining these are “phenomenal buying opportunities.”
• “Take advantage and get yourself some of these mining stocks. If you were underinvested, now’s your opportunity to bring up your weighting, do it yourself, talk to my advisors … or just buy my fund.” [67:00]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Fed’s wishful thinking:

  • “It’s all based on belief. And the belief is based on nothing other than a wish. It’s a fantasy. It’s make believe.” [36:18]

• On gold and inflation:

  • “Higher inflation is good for gold. It’s not bad for gold...The Fed has to get medieval [on inflation] and there’s no chance of that happening.” [34:45]

• On the Fed’s self-assessment:

  • “They don’t want to acknowledge how wrong they’ve been because you go back to their forecasts and it’s always 2% inflation is coming, 2% inflation is coming, and 2% inflation never arrives.” [29:55]

• On stagflation:

  • “The actual economic environment that we’re in can best be described as stagflation. So we’re already there.” [47:50]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening / Fed rate decision context: 00:01–02:00
• Trump economy, GDP analysis: 03:30–07:30
• PPI/inflation breakdown: 09:00–15:00
• Impact on gold/silver/market reaction: 16:00–18:00
• Housing bubble, Fannie/Freddie: 20:00–27:30
• FOMC press conference, Powell’s responses: 39:00–57:00
• Stagflation discussion: 47:45–56:30
• Debt-to-GDP, U.S. vs 1970s: 53:00–56:00
• Fed global inflation excuse: 61:16–63:25
• Summary, investment advice: 65:03–End

Tone and Style

Peter Schiff is blunt, deeply skeptical of official narratives, and often sarcastic—especially about the Fed and the Trump administration. The tone is urgent, warning of impending economic crisis, and fiercely contrarian to mainstream financial commentary.

Summary Takeaway

Schiff argues the Fed and mainstream financial press are in complete denial about the true nature of inflation, the weakness of the economy, and the limits of monetary policy. He warns listeners that the official story is a fantasy, that real inflation is much higher, the situation far more dangerous, and that the best protection is loading up on gold, silver, and related stocks—before reality finally sets in for markets and policymakers alike.