← The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
The Peter Schiff Show Podcast
Gold & Silver Bottom, Bitcoin Cracks as War and Oil Spike Hit Markets
00:35:38
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This is Peter Schiff for the Schiff Gold Friday market wrap. And it was a interesting week, to put it mildly, for the precious metals. And I think there's a very good chance that they bottom this week. In fact, gold early Monday morning almost hit 4100. Even I think it got to around 4120. Silver was down maybe at 63,$64. Gold and silver, though, both closed positive on the week. So taking out the prior week's lows and then closing positive, gold closed just under 4,500, finished up about $120 today. In fact, at one point, it was up about $175 on Friday, and silver was up about a dollar and three quarters. Closed just below 70 cents, I think 69.63. We were above 70 cents earlier in the day. But both gold and silver, I think, put in bottoms. You can't say that for the overall stock market, which I think has put in a top and is poised to move significantly lower. What is driving this train right now is oil and the price of oil. And of course, that is being driven by the war. And we had a lot of volatility related to Donald Trump's posts about the war on Saturday morning and again on Monday morning. On Saturday morning, he basically posted an ultimatum to the Iranians that if they didn't open up the straits within 48 hours, they were gonna have all of their power plants bombed. And so they would basically be in the dark. It was gonna be lights out for the Iranians. And then instead of following through with that thread, early Monday morning, as markets were coming under pressure because of the threat, Trump all of a sudden posted, everything is great. Five day pause. We're having very productive conversations with the Iranians and it's looking good, and so we don't have to bomb them. And then the markets rallied. Now, of course, none of this was probably true. I don't know if the ultimatum was real, and I don't think the peace talks were real. Now, the Iranians denied them, but I don't necessarily believe what the Iranians say. But I don't believe what Trump says, because Trump lies about just about everything. So why am I gonna think it's any different when it comes to this war? In fact, Trump got elected promising not to have a war, specifically with Iran. That was a big part of the election. Hey, vote for Kamala and it's a vote for war with Iran. And you know that Trump is disingenuous because he's claiming that the reason we're Having a war against Iran is because of the last 50 years of bad stuff that Iran has done to us. Well, he knew about all that bad stuff when he ran for reelection. Why didn't he say that one of the things he was gonna do was kick some Iranian ass? That he was going to declare war on Iran to get back at 50 years of violence against Americans going back to the hostages in the Jimmy Carter days. Why didn't he make it clear that he was gonna start a war with Iran if people voted for him? Because people didn't wanna vote for a war. And so now, I mean, nothing has changed since Trump won the election about Iran. They're no more of a threat now than they were when Biden was president. Yet we have this war, so who knows why we're fighting it? But I do think I know why we're going to end it. It's not gonna be related to Iran. It's gonna be related to oil, the bond market, the economy, inflation, housing, the stock market. And in fact, I think Iran knows that the financial markets are the best weapon they have because they can't outgun us, they can't beat us, you know, militarily, but they can force us to surrender. All they have to do is stick it out long enough to ratchet up the economic pain. And as Trump's poll numbers sink, he's already at the lowest he's been of his presidency in either term. But it's about to go even, even lower. Given what's about to happen in the markets now. Who knows what kind of truth social posts we're gonna get this weekend. I'm sure something's gonna happen, but I'm also sure that it's likely to be another lie. But there could be a lot of volatility. But again, I think gold is bottomed out, silver is bottomed out. I would be a big buyer. This is a massive head fake. I know. I didn't expect it. Not that many people expected war with Iran to result in a big drop in the price of gold, because war with Iran is bullish for gold. And that hasn't changed based on this sell off. It's still bullish. In fact, the longer the war goes on, the more bullish it is. But the way the markets have been trading, if the war ends on Monday, gold's going up several hundred dollars on Monday, because right now everybody is focused on interest rates and the Fed, that's what got gold prices going down. The idea that the rate cuts were on hold and now they're talking about rate hikes. But it doesn't matter if the Fed cuts rates or not. What matters is inflation is soaring and so real rates are plunging and the Fed is not going to hike. And even if it does hike, they're talking 25, 50 basis points. They would have to hike several hundred basis points to close the gap between inflation and interest rates, which they can't do. In fact, let's look at what's happening in the markets that are going to be putting a lot of pressure. The Dow had a bad week. The month is not quite over yet because we still have a couple of more days left of March early next week. But the dow is down 2.3% for the week, S&P down 3.5%. Even worse, the Nasdaq, the tech heavy Nasdaq crushed by 4.7%. Now all the major indexes now are at least 10% below their highs. So that's official correction territory. I think if the war continues for another week or two, we'll be in bear market territory and it could continue for a lot longer than that. But even if we declare victory and basically surrender, but turn it into the greatest victory in the history of warfare, oil's not going to collapse. It'll go down, but it's not going back down to where it was. And we still have to pay for what we blew up and we may have to pay to rebuild. In fact, Trump, after that Truth Social post, he sent some kind of peace plan to the Iranians and the Iranians basically flat out rejected it and submitted their own terms which amounted to unconditional surrender by the United States. So the two sides are at polar opposites. They're entrenched in positions that are complete non starters to the other side. Now Trump says we've been having all these negotiations, but based on the positions of the parties, they couldn't have possibly negotiated because their positions now are where you are before you negotiate. Nobody has compromised a nickel. Each side is I get everything, you get nothing. So there's no negotiations. When that's where you are, you're posturing to potentially negotiate. But the negotiations that Trump claims are doing great likely have not even started. In fact, before Trump claimed that there was successful negotiations, he said he didn't want to negotiate, that there was no one to negotiate with, that they were all dead right. But anyway, so gold, as I already mentioned, was up. Gold was up 2.2% on the week approximately, silver up about 3.3%. And gold stocks had a bit of a bounce. The GDX was up 4 1/2 percent, bucking the trend of lower stock prices overall and rising. And so next week, though, I think could be an even bigger week, especially if gold continues to follow through. And I think gold is going to rise as rapidly as it declined, maybe even faster, as people realize that they've got this whole thing wrong, that the war is not bearish for gold, but bullish. And the main thing about it is how expensive it is. Again, Treasury Secretary, I mentioned this on my main podcast and make sure you, you know, you watch my last podcast, I was over an hour, but I went over a lot of important stuff. So if you didn't listen to my podcast on my main channel, Peter Schiff, listen to that one after you finish with this one to get a lot of the points. I don't want to repeat myself here, but there's a lot of important stuff that you gotta hear on, on that podcast. And by the way, if you're not currently a subscriber to this podcast, we now finally have more than 50,000 subscribers to the Shift Gold YouTube channel. But that's a fraction of the 600 plus that I have on my main channel. But we, you know, we had over a hundred thousand people that watched last week's Market Rap, so at least 40,000 of 50, 60,000 of them or 50,000 of them hadn't subscribed. So if you are watching this podcast right now, take a quick break and hit the subscribe button and hit the like button while you're at it too. So like, and subscribe and maybe throw in a comment. But I want, I really want to get the subscribers up to a hundred thousand at a minimum on, on, on this channel. But anyway, getting back to, to the market, so I think we're gonna see a bigger move as investors really come to terms with just how bullish this is. Oh, yeah, I was talking about the cost. So I was watching Scott Bessett and I did mention this on the other podcast. He was on Meet the Press over the weekend. And when he was asked if you're gonna raise taxes to pay for the war, his response was, that's a ridiculous question. How could you ask such a stupid question? Of course we're not gonna raise taxes to pay for the war. So how are they gonna pay for the war with bigger deficits, with money printing the way they pay for all wars now. And so that's bullish for gold. In fact, the national debt is going to rise in 2026 by a larger amount than it did in any year that Biden was president. In fact, consumer prices the CPI is probably going to increase in 2026 by a larger amount than in any calendar year under Biden. In fact, again, look at the import export prices for February. They skyrocketed annualized to about 18% inflation. That was before March. The war started March 1st. Oil prices have gone up 50% this month. None of that was in the February numbers. I used to think a mattress was just furniture until I got my Ghostbed. It's a whole different experience. I woke up and thought to myself, so this is what good sleep feels like. Because Ghostbed doesn't build mattresses like furniture, they build engineered sleep systems. Their beds are serious health equipment beds designed for relief and recovery, not looks or fluff. Your body should be healing while you sleep, not fighting for comfort. I noticed the difference right away. 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the big inflation of the Biden era, the first sign of it was in import export prices. And I kept pointing that out on my podcast. I kept saying forget about the cpi. Look at these import export prices. This is where it happens first. You're going to see it in the producer price. You're going to see the consumer prices. And I was right and the Fed was completely wrong to ignore it. The same thing is happening again. We're going to have a surge in consumer prices. But it started with the import and the export prices which are not manipulated. There's no hedonics, there's no substitution. There are more honest prices and that is what is is going on now. Also look at what happened with bitcoin. Bitcoin down 6.8% on the week. This is blowing up the BS narrative that the bitcoiners were promoting that Bitcoin was taken over gold safe haven mantle. That look, gold went way down during the war and and bitcoin went up. Well now Bitcoin didn't go up. Bitcoin is lower now than it was when the war started. Maybe it hasn't lost as much as gold yet. I haven't checked, but Bitcoin as I'm speaking, is barely holding on to 66,000. It did trade below 66. It traded 65,000 and change earlier in the day. It's now just above 66,000. But Bitcoin was down big on the week while gold was up on the week. And I think bitcoin is on the verge of a major crash. Let's see what happens when it gets below 60,000. It may make a beeline for 40,000. So this is going to blow up that narrative that bitcoin has taken over for gold. In fact, I think as bitcoin breaks down, gold is going to soar. In fact, gold going up could be the catalyst that pricks the bitcoin bubble. Because bitcoin is not only not digital gold, it is digital anti gold. It is negatively correlated with gold. And so if gold did bottom this week and is about to rally, then gold, bitcoin is about to collapse because it goes the opposite. Oil. Oil rose about three bucks. I think it closed last week around 98, I believe. And as I'm speaking right now, we're almost at $101 a barrel or $100.90. So this is the first weekly close since the war began four weeks ago. Where oil is above 100, Brent is about 114 and a half. So it's interesting too that we had this big up day in oil today, but we didn't have a down move in gold. Gold has been inverse recently because higher oil prices have pushed down bond prices and bond prices were in fact lower again today. They closed off their lows because I think there was a Fed governor that came out and spoke, you know, dovishly about, about hike rate hikes. And so that helped lift the bond market off the lows. But the Yield on the 10 year treasury closed at 4.44%. No, looks like 4.42. It was 4.4. Okay, so 4 now for. It's still trading 4.43. So I don't know exactly where it's gonna settle. It got up to about 4.48. I think at one point before that Fed governor talked and the yield on the 30 year right now is 4.96. I think I saw that maybe as high as 4.99. It was at least 4.98, almost 5%. Now if you recall the level that caused Trump to pause the Liberation Day tariffs. Remember Liberation Day was April Fool's Day, right? April 1st. And on April 9th, that's when Trump paused all those massive reciprocal tariffs. And he said that the bond market got yippee. And the level where the bonds were trading when they were yippee was 4.51 to 4.52, just above four and a half percent. Well, we're almost there now. We almost got the four and a half. So the market is not quite yippee, but by next week, it will not only be yippee, it could be yippy yappy. The bond market could fall even more now than it did back then. Yields could rise even higher. So, you know, is the president going to taco out just based on the collapsing bond market, which is also going to wreak havoc in the stock market and the real estate market? In fact, by the way, one of the ways the Trump administration is trying to bail out bitcoin is they just allow, and they announced this yesterday, that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are going to guarantee mortgages where the down payment comes from bitcoin only. So, for example, if somebody is buying a $500,000 property, they don't have to put up anything. Let's say the down payment is 20%, which would be $100,000. Instead of putting up $100,000, you could just post 250,000 worth of Bitcoin and they will loan you 100,000 against that Bitcoin, which you will then use to make your down payment. Now, the problem with this is what happens if the price of bitcoin goes down, right? All that collateral is lost, and now the homeowner doesn't really have any equity. And so what happens when you have no equity, right? You, you, you put a down payment, but the down payment is gone. Normally your down payment is still there. But if your down payment was bitcoin and you never sold the bitcoin and bitcoin crashed and now you know that the lender, of course, now has a second loan on your property for the hunt for the, for the 100,000 he loans you. So you have $100,000 second, you have a $400,000 first, and you have no equity. You walk away from the mortgage. So these type of loans are going to make it more likely that more fha. I mean, Fannie and Freddie insured mortgages go into default and that more of the defaults result in losses for the lender.
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But the only reason the government would have Fannie and Freddie do this is so people who are buying homes don't have to sell their bitcoin to pay for them. They're trying to figure out how they can keep people from selling their bitcoin. Now they're saying, hey, you don't have to sell your bitcoin. If you need a house now, just pledge your bitcoin. You still have all the upside of the bitcoin, but you don't have to sell it and you don't have to pay the taxes. Because if you sell your bitcoin, if you bought it a long time ago, people who bought bitcoin recently, like Michael Saylor, they just got losses. But if you bought it 10, 15 years ago, you have a big gain. And if you sold, you'd have a big tax bill. But by not selling, you avoid the tax bill. Of course that costs the government money because now the government doesn't get the taxes that you would have paid had you sold your real estate to buy the house. But I think one of the reasons that the Trump administration wants to make it easy for people to buy a house and not sell their bitcoin is to keep the bitcoin off the market. Because bitcoin is crashing. And so they're trying to minimize the selling by allowing this to happen, but it's not going to work because bitcoin is going to keep going down. And this just proves, I don't know how many people think that they're going to privatize Fan and Freddie when they're being utilized in this manner. The government is using them to advance political agendas. They're not making economically viable decisions. They're just doing things that serve the political interest of the Trump administration, which doesn't necessarily serve the economic interest of the country. In fact, most of the things that serve Trump's interest personally harm the nation collectively, and that is a big problem. But anyway, so oil prices moving up, yields moving up, the dollar relatively flat. The dollar index closed right about 100. I think we're just below it. So, you know, yes, the dollar is a little stronger, and people are talking about the stronger dollar. And by the way, Donald Trump now is gonna start signing our money for the first time ever. Normally, it had the Secretary of the Treasury's signature on there, but apparently Donald Trump wants his signature on our money now. I guess it could have been worse. He could have tried to put his picture on the money, but instead we're just gonna have his John Hancock. But I think maybe it's fitting that as the dollar's about to crash, it's got Trump's brand on it. But in any event, for all the talk about the strength of the dollar. Excuse me, for all the talk about a strong dollar, the dollar's not really strong. I mean, it went up a little bit and it didn't fall, but it's not the type of strength that you would have seen in the past. When you have this type of military situation, this kind of war in the Middle east, you would have normally saw a much bigger rise in the dollar than you're seeing now. Like when we had under. Under Bush, you know, Herbert Walker, we had Desert Storm when we went in there, there was a big rally, and there's a bigger rally with George W. When we went into Iraq. I mean, so there, you know, but. But what we've seen now is kind of a shadow of the flight to quality. And I never considered the dollar quality, but that's. That's how it was looked at. That's how it was perceived. But this is a very muted rally, and I think we're getting ready for a big decline in the dollar because everything that's happening is bearish for the dollar. Bigger budget deficits, higher inflation, a bear market in stocks, a collapse in real estate prices, which is coming. A financial crisis. If the war continues, we have a financial crisis. The only way to try to avert it or postpone it is massive money printing rate cuts. Everything that they do to avoid another financial crisis that's worse than 2008 is bearish for the dollar and bullish for gold. So people should be loading up on gold and silver now and getting out of their dollars, getting out of their bitcoin, getting out of overpriced US Stocks and bonds. Because either way, if the war continues, it's bad. If the war ends, it's going to be bad. And in fact, all of the problems that the US Economy had predate the war. The economy was slowing dramatically. Q4. GDP just 0.7. Inflation was soaring. Prices were really starting to soar before the war started. The war is just going to take a bad situation and make it worse. The only thing the war is going to do for Trump is give him a scapegoat, because the economy was going to get weaker anyway because inflation was going to be a lot higher anyway. Now Trump can say it's all because of the war, because it's going to happen. It's going to manifest itself in a big way during the war. So Trump is going to be able to say, we had the greatest economy in the history of the world up until this war started, which we had no choice. We had to fight this war because the Iranians were on the verge of nuking us. So we had to fight this war, and I had to disrupt the greatest economy in the history of the world. But don't worry. As soon as we win this war, and we will win it, it will be the greatest victory in the history of warfare. And when we have this supreme glorious victory, then the economy is gonna boom once again. In fact, it'll boom even more than it boomed before. It will be even greater than the greatest economy we've ever had. That'll be the greatest economy ever, the one that we have at the end of this successful war. So the war is gonna be the gift that keeps on giving politically, because it's going to be a great scapegoat for Trump, even better than the Fed, and the Fed didn't cut in time, or blaming the Supreme Court for getting rid of his beautiful tariffs. I think the war is going to be a more, you know, a helpful excuse for Trump to try to basically throw everything like. Kind of like Covid was, right? Covid. Well, you know, everything got bad. Well, it's all because of COVID Right? This is all gonna be because of this war that, of course, we didn't have to fight. See, people will forget about that. But also, I think everything that's happening, the weakness in the economy pretty much hands the midterm elections to the Democrats on a silver platter. Not only will the Democrats retake the House, which was pretty much a foregone conclusion from the beginning, based on how, you know, how close the margins were, and the fact that the party in power always loses some seats in the House in the midterms. So you would have expected the Democrats to get the House back, which is what happened to Trump during his first term. Right. He had the House and then lost it. But I think the Republicans will get the Senate, and so, I mean, the Democrats will get the Senate and that's a bigger deal. But now the Democrats will have both houses of Congress and they won't have a 60 seat majority, so they won't necessarily be able to do whatever they want there, but they'll be able to disrupt a lot of stuff. But more significantly is the direction the country is going to be headed. Because I think that things will be so bad by the general elections in 2028 that not only will the Democrats get the White House in 2028, but they'll get enough additional Senate seats to have 60, and then they'll have it all. And these aren't going to be your father's Democrats or your grandfather's Democrats. These are gonna be the most socialist Democrats imaginable. You're talking, you know, Maldami, aoc, Sanders, the squad. Because this disaster of an economy that's gonna take place on Trump's watch is going to be blamed 100% on Republicans because the Republicans embraced it. And it's gonna be blamed on everything Republicans supposedly stand for, which is gonna be capitalism, free markets, entrepreneurship, deregulation, keep the government off our backs, let the market function. Even though that's not what the Republicans practice. They may have preached it, but they practice the opposite. Trump is one of the biggest socialists in the White House. He's about as far as from Ronald Reagan as any Republican has ever been. But that's not the way he's perceived and that's not the way he marketed himself. And so it's gonna be very easy for the Democrats to bury capitalism to say, you see, look at what greedy capitalism did, you know, unchecked capitalism, greed, big business. They wrecked the economy just like they wrecked it in 08, but they wrecked it worse this time. We need government to take over. The government has to get in control to make sure the economy works for everybody, for the little guys, not just the fat cats and the billionaires. But we need an economy that really works, and only the government can do that. We need a centrally planned and controlled economy that helps workers and helps everybody. Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit. But the public is just dumb enough to buy it.
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And the circumstances are gonna be bad enough that they'll be willing to take a shot right at these promises. But what they're not gonna want is four more years of what the Republicans brought. So all of this is good for gold. Because if you thought the deficits were bad under Trump, wait till you see what happens under the next round of socialists. Especially when the Democratic socialists control the White House. The Senate and the House have carte blanche to spend whatever they want to print whatever they want to run whatever debt they want. They will run the dollar into the ground. They'll destroy the economy. And who knows where gold's gonna go? I mean, 10,000 will be cheap. 20,000, who knows? But the dollar's gonna go through the floor. Gold's gonna go through the roof. And so I think the sooner that you could buy. So again, as I've been saying, I know I didn't anticipate this big drop. But you know what? There's an expression about a gift horse and don't look this one in the mouth. Don't ask any questions, just take advantage of it. Because it won't be long before people realize what's happening here and how bullish this is for gold. And there may have been some countries or somebody that needed to sell some gold right away because they had a stock up on oil or I don't know what happened to drive a rush for liquidity. But the war was very disruptive right away. Nobody obviously expected it. Right. It was a surprise that we just started the war even though we had been building up our truth strength in the region. I don't think people were prepared for that. In fact, obviously we were in the middle of negotiations. So the Iranians probably thought it was just a show of strength while they were negotiating. And in the meantime, we just started bombing them. But this war is not gonna go the way the president plans. Just like nothing goes the way the president plans. I mean, I don't even know if they have a plan. I think they're just flying by the seat of their pants and they're just winging everything and they're just putting out posts on, on truth Social, like trial balloons, and they're seeing, you know, what happens to them. And the last one, right, went down like the Hindenburg. So I don't know how many more trial balloons they're gonna be floating there. But in the meantime, this is a great opportunity. It's a great opportunity to buy more gold and silver. It's a great opportunity to buy these mining stocks which had an even bigger pullback, a much better pullback. Now, I know that higher oil prices are going to be a negative for the gold mining stocks. I mean, but when oil was so cheap, it wasn't really a positive. The market never really credited the mining stocks for just how cheap oil was. So I don't think that they have anything to give back. Now that oil isn't cheap at $100 a barrel, but gold prices and silver prices are gonna keep on rising and the top line revenue is gonna be more important than that line item. Yes. All else being equal, it would have been better for gold stocks if oil was still $60. But even at $100, there's still a steal at the current prices. In fact, I think there's Still a steal at the prices they were at a month ago before we had this 30% pullback on the war. So again, take advantage of that too. Don't just buy gold and silver from shift Gold and don't forget about T gold. If you're a shift gold customer but you're not also a T gold customer, make sure and set up your account and buy a little T gold and start building up your account so you have some gold that you'll be able to use as money as a medium of exchange. Because in the years ahead when we have massive inflation and it becomes difficult to deal in dollars and more and more people don't want dollars, they want an alternative to the dollar. The number one alternative will be gold. And the most convenient way to trade in gold will be through online, through tokenized gold or through platforms where you can move the ownership of gold without moving the physical gold. You have the physical gold nice and safe in a vault. And all that has to change hands to have commerce is the ownership of that gold. And whether it's through a token or any other means, we have the technology to make engaging in commerce and paying and being paid in gold easier, more efficient than it's ever been in the past. See, people keep accusing me when I don't want Bitcoin. I like gold. Say Peter Schiff, you're living in the past. No, I'm not. I'm living in the future. Gold is the future. Soon Bitcoin is going to be the past. Bitcoin has no future. But gold does. It has a very bright future. So make sure and Also establish your TGOLD account and go to europack.com Talk to the representatives there about our strategies, our gold focused investment strategies in separately managed accounts. Or just pick up the gold fund. The Euro Pacific Gold fund can be bought no load at any discount broker. Epgix is the symbol for that fund. And you can download a prospectus and read all about it at my website@europack.com again have a great weekend everybody. Watch for the news coming out of Truth Social. I don't know how many people actually use Truth Social. I never actually use it directly. But whatever he posts is quickly reposted on X, which is the platform that I do pay attention to. So I'll be looking for a repost of whatever Trump decides to post, but again take it with a grain of salt. But if it produces a sell off, if somehow Trump posts something about escalating the war and the markets react, then he buy even more gold. Buy even more silver. Cuz either he's gonna reverse course or the market's gonna reverse on its own. Anyway, I don't know if I'm gonna do the podcast next Friday, the Shift Gold Market Wrap. I will be at sea in the British Virgin Islands. And so I may do one. I may do one from sea, depending on how big the week is. But if I decide not to record one, you'll know why. It's just because I'm on vacation. You know, it's Easter vacation. And of course the following Sunday will be Easter Sunday. The kids have time off from school, so we're not going to be coming back here to Puerto Rico until the Monday after Easter. School resumes, I think on that Tuesday. And so if I don't do one, have a happy holiday, everybody. Enjoy your Easter, your Passover. Passover is going to be starting on the boat, so we've already packed a bunch of matzah and we're actually going to have our Seda, the first ever Seder at sea on our boat. But anyway, again, don't forget I mentioned it once, but I'll mention it twice because it's important. Subscribe to this YouTube channel if you are not now a subscriber and you didn't subscribe 20 minutes ago when I told you to. Now, you can do it now and like it and tell your friends to watch. Listen to this podcast on this YouTube channel and also subscribe to the Schif Gold weekly market wrap. Bye for now.
- [42:27]
B
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D
What does leadership really look like? On the Power of Advice, a new podcast series from Capital Group. You'll hear from athletes, entrepreneurs and executives who've led on the field, in the boardroom and in their communities. It's not about titles, it's about impact. Discover what drives them and the advice they carry forward. Subscribe and start listening today. Published by Capital Client Group, Inc.
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A
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