The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Episode: Jobs Report “Beat” Is Another Lie: 1.1 Million Jobs Erased
Host: Peter Schiff
Date: February 12, 2026

Overview

In this episode, Peter Schiff breaks down the January 2026 U.S. jobs report and its accompanying data revisions, arguing that so-called “beats” in employment numbers are misleading. He uses this occasion to scrutinize government data, market reactions, and the deeper health of the economy—asserting that the true state of employment and economic growth is far weaker than official numbers and political leaders claim. Schiff further explores the implications of these revelations for inflation, the U.S. dollar, global markets, debt, and the ongoing de-dollarization of the world economy. Later in the episode, he critiques the cryptocurrency market, advocates for gold and overseas investments, and warns of impending economic crises.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Dissecting the January 2026 Jobs Report and Massive Revisions

• [00:35] Schiff opens by labeling the latest jobs report as “meaningless,” noting its delayed release due to recent government shutdowns.
• The January report was “highly anticipated,” with expectations of 70,000 new jobs, but the government reported 130,000—nearly double expectations. Schiff lambasts the celebration of this figure.
  • Quote: “For the fact that expectations were so low, 130,000 jobs is nothing to celebrate… It’s all about expectations.” (01:14)
• The real story, he says, lies in the massive downward revisions: about 2.5 million jobs erased since 2019, with 1.1 million jobs removed from last year alone.
  • Quote: “The total number of revisions was about two and a half million jobs going back to 2019. The government now basically erased those jobs — never mind, they were never created.” (02:05)
• Breaking down the numbers:
  • 2025: 1.1 million jobs erased (~90,000/month).
  • 2024: Over 800,000 jobs removed.
  • Many “beats” reported in past months were actually misses.
• Schiff criticizes the narrative about strong labor markets from both the Trump and Biden administrations and claims government data was misleading all along.
  • Quote: “The Biden administration bragged about them… Powell kept saying how resilient our labor market was… Well, there was weakness… it just didn’t reflect in the government numbers, which were wrong.” (04:23)

2. How Flawed Data Misleads Markets

• [06:50] Schiff explains how market algorithms were programmed to buy dollars/sell gold on “strong” jobs reports, which were based on incorrect data; if markets had known the real figures, the opposite would’ve happened.
  • Quote: “The markets were reacting to data that was wrong.” (07:42)
• He singles out the “birth/death model” for fabricating jobs based on unproven assumptions about new business creation—a model recently revised downward, causing many of the erased jobs.
  • Quote: “A lot of the jobs were simply the result of companies that we have no idea whether they actually existed… It was more of a hunch.” (09:00)
• Schiff asks why markets, media, and the Fed still trust these numbers, saying they are “wishful thinking at best” and politically motivated.

3. Inflation, Oil Prices, and Asset Markets

• Schiff disputes Donald Trump’s claims of falling prices, pointing to rising oil prices (now up 20% from lows) and robust oil stocks—a sector he predicts will outperform as investors anticipate higher future prices.
  • Quote: “Oil is cheap. It’s not going to stay cheap.” (12:25)
• Gold and silver mining stocks are performing strongly “under the radar,” with mining stock indexes poised to hit new highs before the metals themselves do.
  • Quote: “I think the gold stocks will hit new record highs before gold hits $5,200.” (15:40)

4. U.S. Stock Market vs. Global Markets and Declining Dollar

• [20:41] Schiff takes issue with Trump’s celebration of Dow 50,000, calling it an “inflationary illusion” and noting that U.S. markets lag foreign markets in returns.
• In real money (gold), the Dow continues to fall; meanwhile, Schiff’s own foreign dividend fund has returned over 13% YTD after 62% in 2025, compared to the S&P’s meager gains.
  • Quote: “Foreign markets are on fire… If our economy is so much better than everybody else’s, why is our stock market so much worse?” (23:38)
• He predicts further dollar weakness, pointing to the dollar index’s technical vulnerability and stating that “the world is in the process of de-dollarizing.”

5. International Flows, U.S. Debt, and the Dollar’s Waning Power

• Schiff argues that contrary to political boasts, investment is leaving—not entering—the U.S., evidenced by a weak dollar.
  • Quote: “Money is coming out of the United States, it is not going into the United States. The world is in the process… of de-dollarizing.” (28:47)
• As foreign central banks pivot toward holding gold over dollars, U.S. economic power and military strength stand to decline.

6. Stagnant Retail Sales and the American Debt Trap

• Schiff touches on flat retail sales, highlighting massive credit card and student loan debt as a drag on consumption.
• Debunks the claim that “we owe the debt to ourselves” as a way to downplay risk, predicting instead that inflation—not default—will wipe out U.S. debt, devastating retirees and savers.
  • Quote: “The dollar is going to collapse. And all of the goods we take for granted… are going to be much less affordable in the future.” (36:20)
• Discusses the economic truism that supply, not demand, is what limits prosperity.

7. Global Economic Realignment

• Schiff insists the world will thrive without U.S. consumption as global purchasing power shifts, especially to emerging markets with strengthening currencies.
  • Quote: “If America did not exist… the only difference would be who the final consumer would be.” (40:16)
• Predicts future prosperity outside the U.S. as investment flows are redirected into domestic production elsewhere.

8. Asset Bubbles Popping: Crypto as a Bellwether

• [46:30] Schiff uses Bitcoin’s crash (down 50% in four months) as a signal of greater asset deflation ahead.
  • Quote: “The whole damn thing is a bubble. It’s all nonsense.” (54:30)
• Rips into Michael Saylor’s dismissals of risk, skepticism in crypto circles, and financial media’s uncritical promotion of crypto narratives.

9. Tokenization, Gold, and the Digital Age

• As crypto enthusiasm wanes, Schiff sees growing interest in tokenized gold as a practical digital money solution, contrasting the speculative nature of Bitcoin with tangible, trusted assets.
  • Quote: “If the token is an ounce of gold, you’ve got to spend $5,000 to get the ounce of gold and then sell it for just a little bit over $5,000. So it’s a low-margin business, but it’s a great product.” (56:47)
• Believes new digital tools make gold more usable and relevant than ever, asserting the world is naturally returning to a gold-backed monetary system.

10. Preparing for Crisis

• Schiff urges listeners to take personal steps, including buying gold, diversifying into foreign assets, and not being fooled by inflated U.S. stock valuations.
• He anticipates steady gains in precious metals and especially junior mining stocks, warning that bubbles will soon pop across the U.S. market.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “The total number of revisions was about two and a half million jobs going back to 2019. The government now basically erased those jobs — never mind, they were never created.” (02:05)
• “Every single jobs report that we got in 2025 that was originally heralded as being better than estimates was actually lower. Right? All these beats were misses.” (03:11)
• “The markets were reacting to data that was wrong.” (07:42)
• “Oil is cheap. It’s not going to stay cheap.” (12:25)
• “Foreign markets are on fire… If our economy is so much better than everybody else’s, why is our stock market so much worse?” (23:38)
• “Money is coming out of the United States, it is not going into the United States. The world is in the process… of de-dollarizing.” (28:47)
• “The dollar is going to collapse. And all of the goods we take for granted… are going to be much less affordable in the future.” (36:20)
• “If America did not exist… the only difference would be who the final consumer would be.” (40:16)
• “The whole damn thing is a bubble. It’s all nonsense.” (54:30)
• “If the token is an ounce of gold, you’ve got to spend $5,000 to get the ounce of gold… So it’s a low-margin business, but it’s a great product.” (56:47)

Important Timestamps for Reference

• [00:35]: Opening thoughts on the jobs report and government “expectations game”
• [02:05]: Deep dive into downward jobs revisions and what they imply
• [07:42]: How flawed data propagates wrong market reactions
• [15:40]: Gold/mining stocks versus physical gold/silver price moves
• [23:38]: U.S. stock market underperforming foreign markets
• [28:47]: The reality of capital outflows and de-dollarization
• [36:20]: Inflation, debt destruction, and the collapsing dollar
• [40:16]: Global demand, supply, and who benefits from a weaker dollar
• [46:30]: Bitcoin as a warning sign for other asset bubbles
• [54:30]: Critique of crypto hype, media, and systemic bubble
• [56:47]: Tokenized gold and practical digital money
• [60:22]: Final warnings and actionable investment advice

Tone & Style

Schiff’s commentary is forceful, critical, and seasoned by years of skepticism toward official data and Wall Street narratives. He combines direct warnings, economic history lessons, and pointed critiques, maintaining his trademark confidence and urgency throughout.

Summary Takeaways

• The jobs report “beat” is illusory—U.S. employment growth is far weaker than claimed, due to politically motivated misreporting and subsequent revisions.
• Asset markets have been misled for years by faulty data, affecting everything from gold pricing to U.S. dollar strength.
• America’s stock market lags behind a global rally, contradicting claims of domestic economic superiority—capital is fleeing, not entering.
• Debt and inflation loom as twin crises, with the U.S. dollar’s role and value eroding amid global de-dollarization.
• The crash in crypto markets, especially bitcoin, is a sign of wider asset bubbles ready to deflate.
• Schiff urges personal preparation: own gold, diversify overseas, and don’t be misled by rising nominal stock prices or government data—those “beats” may be tomorrow’s misses.

For deeper insights, recommended listening: [Peter Schiff Show, February 12, 2026, “Jobs Report ‘Beat’ Is Another Lie: 1.1 Million Jobs Erased”]