Michael Saylor's 11% Yield Is a Ponzi Scheme — Here's the Proof

Summary

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The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Episode: Michael Saylor's 11% Yield Is a Ponzi Scheme — Here's the Proof

Host: Peter Schiff
Date: April 25, 2026

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Main Theme / Purpose

In this episode, Peter Schiff tackles a mix of geopolitical tensions (particularly the ongoing war and its economic fallout), Federal Reserve politics, impacts of inflation, precious metals trends, and his central target: Michael Saylor’s 11% yield “Stretch” product, which Schiff labels a Ponzi scheme. Throughout, he unpacks the week’s financial news with his signature skepticism, critiques U.S. policy and institutions, and steers listeners toward hard assets like gold and select gold mining stocks.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. The War, Oil, and Economic Fallout

(00:06–15:24)

• War Timeline and Investor Sentiment:
  • Nearly two months in, the anticipated “quick end” to the war hasn’t come to pass.
  • Stock markets (S&P, NASDAQ) hit record highs, showing “not a lot of concern among stock investors” despite persistent geopolitical risk.
• Resource Depletion and Strategic Position:
  • “We have a lot fewer missiles and bombs left...if we keep doing this, we’re going to run out.” ([00:54])
  • War’s economic cost highlighted, with gains for military manufacturers but long-term strain and vulnerability for the U.S. as arsenals run low.
• Shift to Economic War and the Oil Blockade:
  • U.S. strategy has shifted from direct military action to closing the Strait of Hormuz, effectively blockading Iranian oil.
  • Schiff notes the “irony” that the U.S. demanded the Strait stay open, only to close it themselves.
• Political Implications:
  • “Winning an economic war is gonna be harder than winning an actual war.” ([03:50])
  • Trump and the Republicans face more immediate political risk than the entrenched Iranian regime, especially as U.S. consumers bear the brunt of price spikes.
• Inflation and Midterm Elections:
  • Peter forecasts that rising gas and food prices will be politically toxic for Trump and the Republicans, with midterm pressure mounting.
  • He expects attempted “stimulus” to backfire by pushing inflation even higher.

Quote:
“If the goal was to open the Strait of Hormuz and now we’re the ones that are closing it, maybe people have lost the irony here of where we are.” — Peter Schiff (08:08)

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2. Inflation, the Federal Reserve, and Powell’s Investigation

(15:44–29:13)

• Inflation’s Ripple Effects:
  • USPS hikes and stamp price increases are “par for the course.”
• Jerome Powell and the Fed:
  • Justice Department drops criminal investigation into Powell regarding the “absurdly expensive” Fed building remodel.
  • Schiff gives a history of the Fed’s perverse incentives: as the Fed’s expenses increase, its profit (and taxes paid to the U.S. government) go down, so the incentive is to “spend everything.”
• Fed Politics and Succession:
  • Kevin Walsh likely to replace Powell as Fed Chair, which Schiff finds contradictory given Trump’s criticism of Powell as “too hawkish,” yet Walsh is apparently even more so.
• Criminal Investigations and Media Leaks:
  • Schiff shares personal experience of being under DOJ investigation, contrasting how the government leaks investigations for political effect but never officially clears someone of suspicion, causing lasting reputational harm.

Quote:
“If I spend a million dollars fixing up my office and I’m in the 100% tax bracket, well I would have sent the whole million to the U.S. government, so I might as well spend it fixing up my office...” — Peter Schiff (18:07)

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3. Precious Metals and Bitcoin Market Wrap

(31:23–42:26)

• Market Movements:
  • Tech stocks and Bitcoin rose sharply, “some of the luster came off the precious metals” this week.
  • Gold closed at $4,708/oz, silver at $75.56/oz—down on the week but still historically high.
  • Schiff reiterates his long-term bullishness: “We’re just consolidating...getting ready for the big move up.” ([33:56])
• Gold Mining Stocks:
  • Newmont Mining reported stellar results: revenues up 46%, earnings per share up 132%, with huge profit margins (“their cost is 20% of their sell price!”).
  • Newmont’s buyback announcement: “Not only are investors buying Newmont, but Newmont is buying Newmont.” ([38:05])
  • Smaller stocks like West Red Lake Mines had a sharp pullback, which Schiff sees as a long-term buying opportunity.
• Investment Philosophy:
  • Advocates buying good companies “on bad news,” especially in gold, oil, and tobacco stocks.
  • Explains risk allocation: larger positions in established miners for safety, smaller bets on riskier exploration plays for upside.

Quote:
“Can you think of any business that has a margin that high where they mark it up five times? ...This is a phenomenal business.” — Peter Schiff (35:41)

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4. Critique of “Efficient Markets”

(50:59–51:39)

• Schiff denounces the idea that stock markets are fully efficient, arguing that consensus is “often wrong” and that in-depth analysis by good managers (like Adrian Day for the Euro Pacific Gold Fund) can outperform indexes.

Quote:
“The whole idea about this efficient market...it’s not efficient. The markets always reflect a perspective at a particular point in time—a consensus—and the consensus is often wrong.” — Peter Schiff (51:07)

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5. Michael Saylor’s “Stretch” Is a Ponzi Scheme

(51:44–57:27)

• Central Argument:
  • Schiff lays out his case—previously detailed on X—that Saylor’s “Stretch” product, offering 11% yield, is “exactly how a Ponzi scheme is financed.”
  • Funds to pay older investors come from new investors, not from underlying earnings: “We pay you a yield, but we don't earn the money to pay it to you—we get it from new investors.”
  • Claims “the only reason it’s not a Ponzi...is because they tell you how it works,” and that media/SEC are giving Saylor a pass due to Bitcoin’s influence.
• Fraud and Regulatory Inaction:
  • Schiff emphasizes the misleading advertising (“put all of my savings into Stretch—what does that imply about risk?”) and lack of regulatory scrutiny.
  • Points out that when speaking to shareholders, Saylor touts how the firm isn’t really obligated to pay anything.
• Closing on Investor Psychology:
  • Says some institutional buyers know it’s a Ponzi but expect to “get out before the music stops.”

Quote:
“The only reason that Stretch is not a Ponzi scheme is because they tell you it’s a Ponzi scheme...They describe to you how it’s financed and that’s exactly how a Ponzi scheme is financed.” — Peter Schiff (52:06)

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6. Tariff Refunds and Federal Budget Implications

(59:11–66:31)

• Tariff Refunds:
  • Rise of mass-tort law firms seeking tariff refunds for importers.
  • Clarifies that only those who paid tariffs directly can claim refunds; highlights how tariffs were always paid by Americans, not Chinese or Mexican entities.
• Fiscal Consequences:
  • Tariff rebates will further swell the national deficit.
  • U.S. national debt is $39.16 trillion, likely to surpass $40T before summer; forecasts reaching $50T before Trump leaves office.
  • Official deficit figures understate true debt growth due to unaccounted spending.

Quote:
“If you want to know how much the deficit was...look at the national debt when the year started and...ended. If the national debt rose by $3 trillion but the government says the budget deficit was $2 trillion, you know it’s a lie...” — Peter Schiff (64:17)

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7. Gold and War—Final Takeaways

(66:31–69:20)

• Military Spending and Gold:
  • Trump plans 50% increase in defense spending; Treasury intends to borrow/print rather than raise taxes (“War is good for gold because war means inflation...”).
  • Only “good thing” from WWI? The song "Over There".
• Investment Risk Philosophy:
  • Everything has risk, including vehicles sold as “ultra safe.”
  • Advises listeners: “Pick the risks you want; everything you do has risks—even stuff they tell you doesn’t.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Winning an economic war is gonna be harder than winning an actual war.” (03:50, Peter Schiff)
• “If the goal was to open the Strait of Hormuz and now we’re the ones that are closing it, maybe people have lost the irony here of where we are.” (08:08, Peter Schiff)
• “The only reason that Stretch is not a Ponzi scheme is because they tell you it’s a Ponzi scheme.” (52:06, Peter Schiff)
• “Can you think of any business that has a margin that high where they mark it up five times? ...This is a phenomenal business.” (35:41, Peter Schiff)
• “The markets always reflect a perspective at a particular point in time—a consensus—and the consensus is often wrong.” (51:07, Peter Schiff)
• “War is good for gold because war means inflation and you get into a war you never know where it's going to take you.” (66:34, Peter Schiff)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:06 — War, oil markets, and U.S. strategic positioning
• 15:44 — Inflation impacts, Fed politics, Powell investigation dropped
• 31:23 — Market wrap: gold, silver, bitcoin, mining stocks
• 37:41 — Newmont earnings breakdown
• 47:39 — Risk philosophy in investing, diversifying gold exposure
• 51:44 — Michael Saylor’s “Stretch” dissected as Ponzi scheme
• 59:11 — Tariff refunds, federal deficit ramifications
• 66:31 — Military spending, gold, and final investment thesis

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Tone and Style

Peter Schiff maintains his signature direct, critical, sometimes sardonic tone, mixing economic data analysis, personal anecdotes, and investment philosophy. He is combative on topics like regulatory capture, government economics, and crypto fraud, but also offers practical conviction about gold and portfolio strategy. Regular listeners will find the episode pointed, irreverent, and packed with actionable viewpoints for skeptics of the mainstream financial system.

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For listeners who missed the episode:
This summary offers a comprehensive tour through Peter Schiff’s latest macroeconomic and investment convictions, sharp-tongued take-downs of Fed incentives and crypto “yields,” and practical insight for hard-asset investors in turbulent times.

Transcript

[Peter Schiff]

you make no friends in the pits

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and you take no prisoners one minute

[Peter Schiff]

you're up half a million in soybeans and the next boom your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your bentley are you with me the revolution starts now starts now we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it turn those machines back on you are about to enter the peter schiff show peterbotta if we lose freedom here there's no place to escape to this is the last stand on earth the peter schiff show is i don't know when they decided that they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness your money your stories your freedom the peter schiff show this is peter schiff and i'm doing this podcast live from puerto rico it is friday just after eight o' clock eight fifteen here in the east coast you know i'm not doing my shift gold friday market wrap today but this is going to satisfy that so if you're looking for the shift gold friday market wrap i will wrap up the week in precious metals on this podcast as i talk about other topics you know i think the big topic continues to be the war and you know we're almost two months in to the war now it started just at the end of february and we're pretty close to the end of april i mean not quite we still got maybe another week or so but you know it'll be two months into the war but when the war started the timer's not working when the war started people thought it would be over very quickly they were talking like two weeks to stop the spread right we were supposed to crush them really fast and they were gonna succumb we had this huge war machine and so it would be over very quickly and if you remember on the podcast i was casting a lot of doubt on this quick end of the war scenario but now the markets are starting to factor in that the war is kind of coming to an end i mean the dow didn't make a new high today but the s and p and the nasdaq are at new record highs so clearly there's not a lot of concern in among stock investors i mean oil prices were down a bit on the week but not that much i mean oil is still ninety four dollars forty cents something like that is about where it went off obviously prices could be a lot higher but this is still a much higher price we were you know we're fifty percent above where the price was before the war started but we're really no closer to winning this war now than we were two months ago and we have a lot fewer missiles and bombs left i mean we've blown through a tremendous percent of our arsenal and now we're in a position that i mean if we keep doing this i mean we're going to run out and at this point what are we going to be blowing up i mean are we going to be blowing up stuff that's less valuable than the bombs that we're dropping or the missiles that we're launching and it's going to cost us a fortune to reproduce these and obviously the companies that manufacture them are very excited about getting these orders but still it takes a lot of resources to be devoted to making these in the meantime the chinese are probably very happy to see us depleting our arsenal while theirs is you know just fully stocked maybe the russians are happy about it too but it seems like the war is kind of sidetracking now because of the extension of the ceasefire and again part of the ceasefire is we're running out of stuff to fire right so that probably serves our interest but trump is now casting the war as an economic war that we're just gonna wait it out because we've got this blockade now because remember it used to be about opening the strait of hormuz like we were trying to threaten iran in fact trump was going to level the entire country the civilization was gonna be destroyed never to return it was gonna rain down hell there were all sorts of threats about blowing up the power plants blowing up the bridges if they did not open the strait of hormuz where have we gone from there where now you won't open up the strait of hormuz fine we're gonna close it and that's where we are right so we've now closed what we were threatening to wipe iranian civilization off the face of the earth if they didn't open it we've now closed it on our own and what we're saying is okay iran let's see how long you can live without your oil revenue because before you are only letting certain ships go through now we're going to make sure that no ships go through now how is this a win because what we've done is ensured that the price of oil goes even higher right we're shooting ourselves if the goal was to open the strait of hormuz and now we're the ones that are closing it maybe people have lost the irony here of where we are but trump again is underestimating i think the iranians because obviously he underestimated their tolerance for being bombed and for threats threatening to wipe them out threatening to annihilate them they didn't back down they're still there and winning an economic war i think is gonna be harder than winning an actual war i don't think the iranians are going to blink i mean if they didn't blink at a threat of complete annihilation not just economically but they were gonna be blown off the face of the earth and they stood strong they'll find a way around the blockade of the strait and of course even if this causes some economic problems in iran the regime that's in power is going to survive it in fact they're going to have the support of the iranian people the iranian people will be willing to suck it up out of their own national pride or patriotism they'll stick together and they've been through tough economic times and sanctions but i think their morale they're standing up to the evil empire right and we are the aggressors in this war right it's pretty easy to see that so i don't think they're going to give up as easy as donald trump thinks they will and i think they have an easier time politically and as much as donald trump wants to talk about regime change the regime has not changed it is the exact same regime now yes we killed some of the people so there's new people but they're new people from the same regime so rearranging the deck chairs whatever i mean it's the same right they're just in a different position although i don't know that they're sinking like the titanic they seem to be floating but we haven't changed the regime and for all we know the regime that's there now is more hardline than the one that we wiped out i think that we are more vulnerable politically because the longer we keep the strait shut the higher the price of oil is gonna go maybe it didn't make a big move this week but we're going to head much higher than one hundred dollars a barrel if this continues and of course if we're not going to bomb them anymore if we keep extending the ceasefire but continue to blockade it's going to lengthen the war because why give in right the political pressure is going to be in the us we're the ones trump will have to blink because at some point if oil prices keep rising the stock market is going to roll over you know we had a big up week this week you know the dow's not back above fifty thousand i don't think but you know the dow is only up about half a percent s and p up seven ten but the nasdaq was way up on the week one point seven percent almost all those gains today led by intel which was up almost twenty four percent of course the government now has a stake in intel so i guess the taxpayers on paper anyway have got a gain but the market is very vulnerable to some bad news or reality but the economy is also very weak it weakened considerably in the fourth quarter i believe we're going to get the bad news on q one inflation is getting worse and it's going to continue to get worse and we're about to enter may so what june july august september october november six months from the midterms elections are coming up in the us they're not coming up in iran so who's going to feel the pressure trump does not want to lose the senate i mean i pretty much think that they've resigned themselves to the fact they're gonna lose the house but the senate is still in play and trump does not want to lose the senate cuz if he loses the house and the senate he's gonna spend two years trying to deal with an impeachment and there could be some other investigations that are going to be led by congress into who knows what so trump wants to keep the senate and so do i'm sure the republicans they want to be the majority so as the economy weakens because of high gas prices maybe even slips into a recession who is going to blink trump is going to have to do something now it's possible that they just say well we'll just have some big tax cuts some stimulus checks are going to be going out to help people afford these high gas prices let's stimulate the economy but that's just going to cause all prices to go up and i think the longer that trump waits to maybe find a graceful way out of this war a way to lose it yet still claim he won it which i'm sure trump could do i mean trump could pull that off that's you know very trumpian right doesn't matter whether you win or lose just tell everybody it's the greatest win in the history of the world and just say it every time you have a chance to talk right talk about how this is a win you know that you know like nothing we've ever seen but the longer he waits to you know to claim mission accomplished even if nothing of the mission is accomplished the harder it's gonna be and the more these problems are gonna get ingrained in the economy so again i think we lose the economic war trump you know trump doesn't think so but then that was the same thing they thought about the bombs and the missiles that that was gonna work it didn't work and the economic war will be even less successful but the bigger casualties will be here and we've got other economic problems high oil prices high food prices because that's also affected the fertilizer that we're blockading they're just another problem to layer on top of the problems that we already had so to use donald trump's expression we don't have the cards especially if there's a dollar dump because that's the real achilles heel is the dollar going down and taking the bond market with it and driving long term rates up cuz we don't have that emergency break the glass plan that hank paulson

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[Peter Schiff]

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[Peter Schiff]

before the big blast okay so you know speaking about in the effects of inflation pushing stuff up you know this is just part of it but i read a story today that the the us post office is now putting on an eight percent surcharge onto packages the stamp price is going up i already mentioned that on another podcast i forget by how much it was a pretty good five six percent jump you know we're gonna be at a dollar pretty soon for a postage stamp they used to be two cents you know postcards were a penny i forget i don't even know i don't know what the postcards cost now i haven't mailed one and god knows when but but you know this is going to be par for the course with these hikes but the big story i think of the day is that trump the justice department and obviously you know they're doing what trump wants here they dropped the criminal investigation against jerome powell now what was he being investigated for it was the fraud that went into the construction of the or remodeling of the federal reserve building which you know the federal reserve always had the most expensive building in washington even before they decided to remodel it and remember on my my last podcast i i really went into the federal reserve and a lot of people appreciate the history of the federal reserve so i'm going to throw in another point about the federal reserve because the federal reserve was created as a private banking syndicate it generates a profit like any other private enterprise and it pays a tax on to the us government now it doesn't pay the normal tax that everybody else pays it has a special tax regimen where the and there are shareholders there are banks that are the shareholders of the federal reserve but

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the federal reserve is allowed to make

[Peter Schiff]

a particular return on its total capital investment and i forget what that return is off the top of my head i don't know everything i don't know it's five percent or i forget somebody could look it up but they're allowed to make a fixed return on their capital and everything above that return they pay to the us government so they are effectively in a one hundred percent tax bracket now think about what that means right if you're in a one hundred percent tax bracket what would you do and if you could write off everything because the fed writes off whatever it spends well if you could write off the expenditure and you're in the one hundred percent tax bracket just spend everything because whatever you don't spend just going to the government so if i'm a business and i'm in one hundred percent bracket i'm going to remodel my office it's going to be as fancy as i can possibly make it i don't even care what the cost is because i don't pay the cost the cost is paid by the government because if i spend a million dollars fixing up my office and i'm in the one hundred percent tax bracket well i would have sent the whole million to the us government so i might as well spend it fixing up my office because at least i got a nice office rather than sending the government a big check for the million dollars so

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

that's how the federal reserve operates those

[Peter Schiff]

are the incentives so whenever they had to fix up a building it was like well just spend whatever the hell we need because if we don't spend it we're just sending it to the us government which of course will waste it so the fed said we might as well waste it right let's waste our money instead of giving it to the us government to waste it but that's why the us government was getting all this money from the fed every year they were collecting taxes but you know the fed would reduce its income with high expenses that's why everything costs so much it was a perverse incentive either spend it or send it to the government and so this particular project though was so ridiculously expensive that trump was able to politicize it or use it to put the pressure on powell because remember normally and we got kevin walsh who's he's about to step in right next month he would become the next fomc or chairman chairman of the fed and the tradition is the guy that's there bows out and not only does he bow out well he has to bow out of the chairmanship but he leaves the fed altogether and what powell was threatening to do was stay on even if they confirmed walsh to be the new fed chair he was gonna stick out his term for a couple years because he wanted to stay there until the criminal investigation was over although they can always resume it just because they ended it doesn't mean they can't restart it but i guess this was an olive branch to try to get powell to just go gracefully into the night so not only would trump get to put walsh in but he gets to put somebody else in to take powell's place right really start stacking up the federal reserve now again a lot of people are talking about how you know this guy walsh wants to be even more independent than powell he's going to be more hawkish than powell well then why the hell is trump nominating him why is he so excited because his criticism of powell is that he's too hawkish so you're gonna put somebody even more hawkish than the guy you're criticizing for being too hawkish even though that's not the right word i would say less dovish than that you know and so why are you gonna put in a guy who's not as dovish as the guy that you wanna get rid of because he's not dovish enough right that's that's really what's going on but what's interesting too about dropping the criminal charges the justice department normally

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

they don't do that and i know

[Peter Schiff]

this from personal experience when they started investigating me a criminal grand jury right so the department of justice convenes a criminal grand jury to investigate me and not just me right me the president of the bank some of the other bank employees we're all being investigated criminally that investigation started in january of twenty twenty so over six years ago and the investigation of the bank actually started a couple years before that in the netherlands but it took a while before it moved to the united states now to this day nobody has come out from the us government says yeah we closed the investigation of peter schiff i mean it's pretty obvious to me that they closed it years ago but they don't come out and say that they just stop they don't issue you like hey we investigated you but you're looking good so no now normally if the process works the way it's supposed to nobody even knows you're being investigated they investigate you in secret confidentially and so if no one knows that you've been investigated then it makes no sense to tell everybody that an investigation nobody knew was underway was now closed and personally i would rather the public never think i was investigated and that would be you know most people because if an investigation is opened up and the government announces hey we're investigating peter schiff for child molestation let's say even if they come back a couple years later and say okay we cleared him we didn't find any evidence that he molested any children first of all there's been a lot of damage to my reputation that's been done between the time they announced they were investigating me and the time they announced that they didn't find any evidence but there's always gonna be people who once you say he's being investigated they're like oh schiff just did a good job of hiding the evidence or maybe he bribed the victims to keep quiet right i mean once this suspicion is out there it's like hey why did they investigate him i mean there must have been somebody tipping him off there must have been some some smoke there to suspect that there was fire

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so normally you don't even want to

[Peter Schiff]

say that there's an investigation because the mere hint of an investigation is going to taint the person but in my case right they leaked the investigation to the media and then the media said that there was an investigation the new york times said there was an investigation australia sixty minutes said i was being investigated which was immediately a problem because all of the counterparties that i was doing business with at my bank they just stopped doing business with me not because i was guilty but because i was being investigated and they didn't want to associate with somebody under investigation they didn't wait around to find out if i was innocent or guilty they were already going to be guilty by association and again all these banks

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

have their

[Peter Schiff]

own kyc requirements where they've got to look at all their customers and look for red flags well what's a big red flag a government investigation for money laundering and tax evasion you don't get any bigger and redder than that how can anybody ignore that right you have your anti money laundering program and one of your customers is now being actively investigated by the us government who for money laundering and tax evasion that guy's out of here i can't do business with that guy i can't wait to find out if he's innocent or guilty right but anyway but in my case the government didn't officially admit that they were investigating me but they leaked it to reporters who sold it but it was in june of twenty twenty twenty twenty two with the press conference that shut down the bank that the government finally admitted what they had already leaked to the media that my bank was under investigation now at the press conference when someone said well is peter schiff under investigation too they said well we're not at liberty to say who's under investigation and who's not under investigation well that's bullshit because they just said the bank was under investigation so if they're not at liberty to say who's under investigation why the bank but of course they also mentioned at the bank that i was the only shareholder so if my bank is under investigation for money laundering and tax evasion how can i not be what my bank is doing it all by itself right the one hundred percent owner of the bank is not being investigated but the bank itself is i mean how can my bank be laundering money and evading tax to help me on autopilot like it just decided or maybe just my employees said you know let's just do this money laundering let's make sure the owner of the bank doesn't know what's going on but we're just going to launder all this money and stuff on our i mean it doesn't even make any sense so clearly and even if that was the case even if the bank was laundering money behind my back even if some employees decided to set up a tax evasion money laundering you know deal that i didn't know about they would still investigate me they wouldn't know that yet obviously they're not going to investigate the bank without investigating me that's why when they first gave me the subpoenas they told me that i wasn't being investigated they lied to me they said they were investigating customers of my bank because had they told me they were actually investigating my bank well then i would have known that they were investigating me so they lied to me see you're not allowed to lie the government but the government's allowed to lie to you which i think is wrong the government shouldn't be allowed to lie to you but they lie to the public all the time but in any event so they announced that i was under investigation they've never come out and said that i'm not which i would appreciate at this point because it was out in the open that i was being investigated why don't they come out and say we close that investigation because you know otherwise people could think well the reason that you haven't been indicted is they're still they're still investigating you it's been six years the bank that i

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

owned that i supposedly used to launder

[Peter Schiff]

money has been closed for almost four years so if they haven't found anything cuz obviously i couldn't have done anything in the last four years cuz i don't have the bank anymore so if they haven't found the evidence of money laundering or tax evasion yet obviously they've moved on to something else but they won't admit that they won't give me a clean bill of health because that's the way they work they just kind of disappear and leave the impression out there that there's some ongoing investigation so my name never really gets cleared because people just say well the wheels of justice turn slowly and they're just building their case eventually they'll charge you right which is all a bunch of bs anyway look most people think their data

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

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[Peter Schiff]

all right now i i said at the beginning of the podcast of course that i was going to talk about gold and silver so i can include the shift gold friday market wrap in today's podcast so you know i guess with all of the enthusiasm for risk assets the big jump in tech stocks some of the luster came off the precious metals also had a move up in bitcoin this week although we've pulled back off the highs bitcoin almost got to eighty thousand i don't think it actually hit eighty thousand let me take a look at this chart i don't know if i saw it above eighty thousand but i know i saw it at seventy nine and change but if i could look at a chart i'll know if it actually got above there let me see no seventy nine thousand like three hundred and change so now we're about seventy seven point four but we're still up about three percent on the week so you know money coming into bitcoin and into tech stocks nasdaq semiconductor stocks have really been on fire money's been moving in there so i think that has kind of taken some of the interest away from the metals in this week and they were down silver was down four point five percent on the week or five five point four percent excuse me so gold closed about four thousand seven hundred and eight and silver closed at seventy five dollars fifty six cents but again these are still great prices this is all a consolidation of the breakout gold is at four thousand seven hundred a year ago it was three thousand so this this is a big move two years ago is two thousand right so four thousand seven hundred and silver even last year was still trading around thirty bucks before it really took off yes it's off the high of one hundred and twenty but it quadrupled to get there so we're just consolidating this is noise i think we're getting ready for the big move up and again remember i got the new app the shift gold app is now available at the app store you can download it and now you could just buy gold and silver right off the app on your phone the t gold app is coming don't have it yet but it's going to come where you can do the t gold online too and that's going to be ideal because eventually you'll be able to send and receive t gold to other t gold customers from your phone and use it to earn and pay and stuff like that and then eventually withdraw a token tokenized gold that's kind of where the t comes from in t gold although right now it's more about trade because you could trade your gold using t gold now the gold mining stocks were down gdx down four percent gdxj down five and quarter percent on

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

the week

[Peter Schiff]

but look at what happened today with newmont mining newmont mining was up eight point seven percent today it closed up six and a half percent on the week in a week where the gdx was down four percent and newmont is one of the biggest positions in that gdx and let me go over what happened with newmont because this is very important and i own a lot of newmont personally i have a big position in newmont i've known look i've owned it for a long time and a lot of my newmont i got just because newmont bought companies that i owned and they bought it with stock so i actually bought some newmont over the years because i've been buying newmont for over twenty years and i have never sold it so you can imagine i got a lot of it i got other stocks and we've owned it in our strategies we've owned it in our mutual funds and our separately managed accounts but newmont came out with its earnings and this is an idea of what is coming for gold stocks because they beat the earnings significantly but for the first quarter newmont's revenues grew by forty six percent their revenues are seven point three billion dollars revenue their earnings per share rose one hundred and thirty two percent they're earning two dollars ninety cents on the quarter right so what is that two hundred ninety times four times four that's eleven dollars and six cents and how much is newmont stock let me see if it's eleven dollars over dollar eleven in earnings and newmont is one hundred and twenty it's about ten times earnings right ten times earnings what is the us stock market trading at i mean more than double that about the s and p you've got like a fifty percent discount to the s and p is the s and p growing earnings like that or are their earnings up one hundred thirty two percent think about the margins on this company now they're all in sustaining costs to mine gold are now one thousand and twenty nine dollars an ounce that's their cost the product that they are selling cost them one thousand and twenty nine dollars to make their average sale price for the quarter was four thousand nine hundred dollars so basically five x margins right their cost is twenty percent of their sell price can you think of any business that has a margin that high where they mark it up five times it cost them twenty cents and they sell it for a dollar this is a phenomenal business and business is just going to get better because the demand for gold is gonna keep rising as the demand for dollars keeps falling more central banks are gonna buy gold the ones that are already buying it are gonna buy more the

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

ones that haven't been buying it are

[Peter Schiff]

gonna start yes there have been some banks some countries have had to sell some gold recently of course that's what it's there for it's a rainy day fund it's a reserve you get into trouble right oil prices shoot up you've got a problem you need some liquidity yeah sell some gold that's why it's there and the reason you could sell some gold is there's plenty of buyers who want it right and so the

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

price is going to keep rising this

[Peter Schiff]

is a phenomenal business in fact not only do they you know do they have their dividend but they stepped up their share buyback they're going to be buying back two point four billion or that's how much they bought back they've purchased two point four billion in shares since their last earnings release but they're stepping up the stock buyback so not only are investors buying newmont but newmont is buying newmont right so this is very good news the markets are kind of ignoring this right now but i also mentioned that there's been some acquisitions recently some of the smaller stocks that we've owned have recently been bought by bigger companies aem bought one of our stocks a week ago and this really good news going on in the mining sector although not all mining stocks got good news a sponsor of my podcast my first gold company sponsor i guess it was bad timing although i don't actually look at it as bad timing because i just started talking about the company so most people probably haven't bought it yet but west red lake mines dropped today seventeen point five percent down to eighty four cents it's almost back down to where i bought it i bought it for lower than this but the fifty two week high is one dollar forty nine cents so this is a nice pullback it went down because they had a guide a little lower but they're just ramping up their production this is an early stage company that's just transitioned from exploration and development to production this is where the company has been de risked significantly from when it started and it's in the transition phase to becoming a much more valuable producing company obviously during that stage there's gonna be some bumps but i think these are opportunities to buy these pullbacks in fact i'm probably gonna buy some more and in fact a lot of the gold stock positions that i have over the years i've accumulated a lot of my stock on big pullbacks i wait for that when there's bad news i buy into it because i know how mining works you get bad news sometimes you get good news and other investors are very fickle they're very short term focused their momentum they get a little bit of a bad news in fact one of my favorite bad news sell offs to buy in is something that slows down production something that delays production there was an accident at the mine they have to close it for six months or something happens to push back something and the market tanks i love that because what that means is they're not gonna sell the gold now they're gonna sell that gold later because the gold's still in the ground they're just digging it out later and the reason i like digging it out later is because i know that when they dig it out later they will get more money for it when they sell it so i don't care i love those opportunities to buy i do the same thing with tobacco stocks whenever there's bad news somebody's suing somebody the fda comes out surgeon general says something right the stocks tank philip morris international british tobacco just buy i mean you're gonna it's gonna come back and in the meantime you get great dividends there's some of the best dividend payers out there because people don't stop smoking right i mean they know it causes cancer and they smoke anyway right so they're they're stuck right if you know something causes cancer and you do it anyway that's a good customer right that customer's sticking around so they're good businesses i mean we own some of these stocks too something same thing happens to oil companies sometime there's bad news stocks go down i i love buying good companies on bad news that's how you get a break right so all of a sudden people are scared they're selling so i think that's what's happening with west red lake in fact i don't know when they have another commercial going but they trade in toronto but i don't want to give out the wrlg vancouver is the symbol i always buy it with limits though all these stocks i buy with limits you know and sometimes i put them below the market i like to do that did you know fast growing

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today offer is valid for a limited time terms and conditions may apply look i sit through a lot of conversations interviews client calls strategy sessions research discussions a lot and here's what i've noticed the moment you stop paying attention to take a note you miss something every time because you can't do both and then that insight or that number or that line of reasoning that was actually worth remembering it's gone that's the problem that plaud ai solves plaud spelled p l a u d is a hardware and software system built around one idea capture the conversation completely so you can be fully present in it the device records the ai transcribes and then it does something genuinely useful it generates a structured summary key points decisions action items not just a raw transcript dump but actual structure you can search past conversations ask questions about what was said pull up a meeting from three months ago and find exactly what you need in seconds i do a lot of recorded content 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[Peter Schiff]

body actually needs but you know the way i look at it i've got a much bigger position in newmont than i do in a stock like west red lake mining because it's significantly less low over over time whereas in west it could lose money but on the other hand the upside is far greater now you say well why if the upside is so much greater in west red lake why do i have a bigger position in newmont and that's because there's less downside see i don't want to lose a lot of money so i'll have a smaller position in in a stock that can go way up but i'll have a bigger position in a stock that's less likely to go way down and of course every once in a while it's like shit why didn't i have more money in that i have one stock that i own that i got almost one hundred times my money in and i keep saying why didn't i have more money in that one i made a small investment now it's not a small investment something goes up one hundred x even if you put a little bit of money in it becomes a big investment but when i made the investment it wasn't that much now it's not a mining stock it's an ai stock although when i bought it i didn't even know what ai was and neither did anybody else because i've owned a damn thing for ten twenty years but it didn't really start moving up big until i don't know four or five years ago and then it got you know got caught and i'm not telling other people to buy because it's gone up so much but for all i know it'll keep going up because i haven't sold it right i don't want to get off this train but we'll see you know and every time you know it's been pretty volatile but but west red lake yeah it's got a lot more risk but it's not a lot of upside you put less money into it and i own a lot of companies like this so i spread my chips around on these higher risk companies but i have much bigger positions individual positions in companies like newmont and franco nevada and wheaton precious metals and el nigo eagle and barrick right those are very big positions because i'm not worried about losing money there i have no fear at all i just want to get out of the dollar i want a solid stock but again most people the best way to diversify just buy my gold fund then you get everything simple easy peasy you buy the europe pacific gold fund go get the prospectus yes there's risk there but we diversify a lot of the company's specific risk away in fact pretty much all the company specific risk is diversified out when you've got a big pool but what we don't do is just buy an index because i have confidence that adrian day who manages my gold fund that trusting his judgment who've been doing this for forty years i'd rather have him just buy the good stocks the stocks he thinks are good and ignore the ones that he thinks are bad than just buy everything because everything's not good there's some bad stuff in there now most people aren't smart enough to know the difference so they just buy the index

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

adrian is smart enough that's why i

[Peter Schiff]

hired the guy because i know he's smart enough and the whole idea about this efficient market they say oh well there's no point in trying to beat the market because it's efficient it's not efficient the markets always reflect a perspective at a particular point in time a consensus and the consensus is often wrong

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

and so yes the market is efficient

[Peter Schiff]

at pricing stuff but based on a

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

lot of bad information if a lot

[Peter Schiff]

of people think something is valuable and they want to buy it then the

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

market's going to price it higher but they could all be wrong and i

[Peter Schiff]

like to bet against the consensus most of the time

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

right now there's a

[Peter Schiff]

consensus i wanted to get more into this i did a whole spaces on it you know on strat on strategy one of the reasons that bitcoin popped up last week was because michael saylor was able to spend another two and a half billion buying it because he unloaded so many shares of his ponzi scheme known as stretch and you know

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

i talked about it i did a

[Peter Schiff]

special x you could go to my x account and go look at i did it you know was it two nights ago or one night ago i forget i just did it but i challenged people to prove to me that stretch was not a ponzi i mean the only reason it's not a ponzi technically is because if you're running a ponzi scheme you'd never tell people it's a ponzi scheme they think it's legitimate investment now normally the only sign of a ponzi scheme is gee that's too good to be true and it usually is when something seems too good to be true it's because it's not true right but the only reason that stretch is not a ponzi scheme is because they tell you it's a ponzi scheme now they don't say it's a ponzi scheme but they describe to you how it's financed and that's exactly how a ponzi scheme is financed the way it's financed is we pay you a yield but we don't earn the money to pay it to you we get it from new investors who we sell the same security to and now we get money from them and we give to you and how do we get money from those new guys well then we find another guy to give us money to give it to them and to give it to you and we keep on doing it until we run out of fools and then we just stop right strategy is actually telling you this if you pay attention if you read the fine print which most mom and pops don't do they just buy it because there's a picture of a beautiful girl sipping a mai tai poolside how she's retired and living off of stretch because she put all of her savings this is what this ai gal is saying i put all of my savings into stretch now if somebody puts all of their savings if you're running a commercial showing somebody says i put all my savings all of it that implies there's not a lot of risk there you don't roll the dice with your retirement money you don't put all your retirement savings into one thing unless that one thing is really safe and so what saylor is trying to imply with his ad is this is a safe eleven percent yield that you can put all of your retirement money in now i mean if i ran something like that the sec would be all over me finra would be all over me i don't know how saylor gets away with this in fact i think i do know how it's hands off at the trump sec because they don't want to stop what saylor's doing because he is probably single handedly propping up the bitcoin market and they don't wanna do anything to stop that because the bitcoin guys control that presidency they're all over it so sailors gotta pass to commit this kind of fraud and try to con people into buying this now some people say it's not a ponzi scheme because legally he doesn't have to pay he could just stop of course he could just stop same thing with any ponzi scheme you can always stop paying but here he's legally can stop paying that's why you know when when strategy talks about stretch what he says about it depends on his audience so if he's talking to investors who would be buying stretch this is the greatest invention ever you're getting eleven percent we've de risked it we've taken all the volatility out this is a brand new game it's going to suck up all the capital out of the bond market out of the preferred market everybody's going to buy this because it's the best yield you can find right talks about how safe it is and how great it is and then when he talks to strategy shareholders oh yeah these things are great we don't really have to pay anybody anything we can they can never call it they can never force us into bankruptcy because we don't actually have to pay them anything we can stop paying whatever we want so he tells the equity investors how crappy they are and tells the stretch investors how great it is and it's the same thing but he is right strategy doesn't have to pay the only time that they have to pay is in bankruptcy so if strategy goes bankrupt and you're holding the preferred you've got a residual claim that's superior to the common on the estate of strategy but in the meantime they can stop paying the dividends you don't get a nickel and the only thing you could do is sell your shares but once the music stops once the ponzi collapses and there's no more yield what's it worth but saylor is incentivized to keep this thing going because this is the only thing that's providing him with money now he used to be able to buy bitcoin by selling strategy at a premium but that game is over so now he had to invent this conversation and now people are dumb enough to give him money for this eleven percent yield there are actually institutions that are buying it these guys probably know it's a ponzi but they don't even care because they figure they're smart enough to get out before the music stops in the meantime they're goosing the yields on their portfolios with an eleven percent trust and will is an

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[Peter Schiff]

fact that the sec allows this to happen why do i've said this i've done episodes before get rid of the sec i mean i'm being audited by the sec right now they're watching my podcast in fact i know i'm gonna have to make some changes to my podcast because they're giving me some shit you know it's not finra this time it's the sec who's auditing me right now in fact i'm being audited by the irs and the sec at the same time yet i'm still criticizing the government right so i got some chutzpah and i don't know if it's a coincidence that i'm being audited by two government agencies at the same time that's the first time that that that has happened but they're asleep at the switch there at the sec guys you know while you're auditing me you know complaining about my podcast why don't you look at these strategy ads for stretch right complain you know that that's the fraud right not what's going on over here so a couple other things i wanted to point out i saw for the first time ads from the mass torture real estate guys i mean lawyers and i got a lot of mass tort lawyers living in my community here but i saw my first ad for tariff refunds it's now you know people are now starting to apply for tariff refunds anybody who paid a tariff if you directly paid the tariff it doesn't apply if you indirectly paid it so if i bought something and the price was higher because the guy who sold it to me had to pay a tariff i'm sol i don't get any money but if you are the business that imported the stuff and you wrote the check to the us government you get your money back all of it now you don't need you know to sign your claim to one of these guys that's running commercials i don't know what their take is what percentage they take of your refund but if it's not that high maybe it's easier than doing it yourself because obviously you know you just can't write the government a letter and they're not going to send you a check right there is a legal process to sue for your refund and so you can either do it yourself or you can just sign on to one of these things and they're already doing it for people but now you've got a cottage industry that's been created to help people get their refunds but what this also provides evidence of which we didn't even need because it was obvious to everybody except the president and all the idiot republicans that are afraid to criticize him it's not the chinese who are going to get these tariff refunds it's not the mexicans it's not the canadians it's not they're going to americans because it's americans who paid the taxes now if there's a chinese company with a us office and their us subsidiary paid the tariff then they'll get it back cuz it was their us company that paid the tariff but the companies outside america never paid a nickel of those tariffs they were all paid for by us companies now for some of these companies this could be a real windfall because if they did pass on the tariff to the customers when they get the tariff refund they're not obligated to go find those customers and write them a check no it's just extra money money that they didn't expect to have now in some cases they might not have passed on all of the tariff they might have eaten some of it and so now they're going to they're going to get that back now if you are an individual who directly imported stuff and you paid a tariff then you can also get a refund right now if it's a small amount right you paid one hundred dollars two hundred dollars it may not be worth the effort right you know to to get it back and i don't think these customer these mass tort lawyers are going to take a claim that small it's too much paperwork for nothing so there the government will probably get away with keeping it right if it was a small amount but all of this is going to be a burden on the federal budget so we expect to see the deficits increasing as the government is no longer collecting as much tariff revenue they still got some tariffs so the government's still getting some tariff revenue but they're also paying back a lot of tariffs that they collected in the past the national debt now is thirty nine point one six trillion we will be forty trillion probably before the summer and then when we get into the next recession things are really going to start to spiral out of control as i said i think we're gonna see fifty trillion deficit before trump leaves office that is a big number a big number you know the us government only collects about five and a half trillion only it's still a lot five and a half trillion a year in taxes and they spend about seven point two trillion officially unofficially they spend a lot more than that right the official spending numbers don't account for a lot of spending that's why the reported budget deficits every year are so much smaller than the actual increase in the national debt see that's why i don't pay attention to the official numbers if you want to know how much the deficit was in any given year just look at the national debt when the year started and look at the national debt when the year ended if the national debt rose by three trillion but the government says the budget deficit was two trillion you know it's a lie because there's three trillion more debt now than there was when the year started so if you added three trillion in additional debt that you didn't have right well you must have run up three trillion in new debt otherwise the debt wouldn't go up by that but they have all these expenditures that they don't count because they say well you know they're non recurring except they happen every year you know and it may not be the same thing like disaster relief right that's non recurring oh yeah well we're not going to have that particular disaster every year yes but every year there are going to be disasters and if

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

every year you just don't count the

[Peter Schiff]

spending because it wasn't specifically budgeted but you know it's gonna happen every year it happens and there's all kinds of things that they don't count because they say they're not we don't officially include it as a line item of expenditure but it just happens so the whole thing is dishonest but the deficit is soaring and the war the war is gonna make it worse and trump has said he wants to increase military spending by fifty percent he wants to take the budget up to one point five trillion i remember when his secretary of

[Podcast Sponsor/Advertiser]

the treasury

[Peter Schiff]

was asked on national television meet the press how are you going to pay for this are you going to raise taxes he laughed it off and then said what a stupid question of course we're not going to raise taxes right we're just going to borrow the money we're going to print the money we're going to have more inflation and that's why gold's going up war is good for gold because war means inflation and you get into a war you never know where it's going to take you it always goes to places that you never intended right the war is already taking on a whole new dimension god knows how long we're going to be there just like iraq just like afghanistan trump was right to criticize our involvement in in iraq he was right to criticize our involvement in afghanistan and he was right to warn us not to get involved with iran he was wrong to start a war with iran that's the problem and he still claims that well you know i didn't start this war they started it fifty years ago okay then why didn't you say that when you ran for office right why didn't you why wasn't your campaign slogan vote for me and i'm gonna kick some iranian ass i'm going to get these guys for what they've been doing no that wasn't the campaign slogan and again i talked a lot about wars on the last podcast i thought world war one world war but i wanted to mention i forgot to say the only good thing that came out of world war one because the worst thing that came out of world war one was world war two but the only good thing to come out of it was a good song that was it right the recruitment song over there right george cohan i don't know if you haven't heard that song go listen to it i mean that was a great song apparently he wrote it in like half an hour it's a fantastic song they used it in world war two as well but it's probably the best military song ever and that's basically what we got for the war is a nice song that sold a lot of sheet music and then a lot of records which we don't have anymore but anyway i'm starting to drift off into various tangents here as i'm coming to the end of this podcast i'm looking at the timer now in fact my timer stopped working for a while so i'm probably already over an hour but anyway so again make sure to and i should have said this at the beginning i say this every time at the end and a lot of people don't even stick around to the end of these podcasts but make sure and subscribe to my channel both this channel and the schiff gold youtube channel give it a like and a thumbs up and a comment get the engagement going just in case i could get out of my shadow ban or something whatever's going on with youtube and my channel you know before the next breakout in gold and silver buy yourself some get some t gold look at these gold stocks go to my website euro pacific asset management europath dot com get the prospectuses understand the risks right obviously everything can go down everything can lose money but you're gonna lose money no matter what you do and even if you don't lose money your money is gonna lose value so you got to pick the risks that you want to take and then decide how you want to play this game because everything you do has risks even stuff they tell you doesn't have risk has a lot of risk and sometimes the stuff that they tell you is ultra safe is in fact very risky once you understand where the risks are i know where the risks are in my mind and i avoid the risks that i think are the best threat anyway that's it for now have a great weekend and i'll be back again next week with more podcasts so i'll see you then

[Trust & Will Narrator]

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