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Peter Schiff (2:14)
the Peter ship show. Well, it was not a good day today for inflation or for the Federal Reserve. But it was a very good day for gold and in particular for gold stocks. And I will get into that a bit later. First I want to talk about the bad news on inflation. And you know, I don't often say I told you so, but sometimes I just got to say I told you so. I have been warning on this podcast for over a year that inflation was going to get worse, that the Fed aborted the hiking campaign prematurely, that the Fed never got rates into restrictive territory, that despite the claim that they were fighting inflation, they continued to stoke the fire and that the Fact that we pulled back from 9% to, to, you know, two and a half or wherever. We got down to that. That was just a, a, a, a cycle, a temporary pullback that we had formed a base and that we were headed higher and that we were not going to get to 2%. We weren't on a glide path to 2%. We weren't even going to touch it, and that we would be heading higher. And today's inflation report came out hotter than expected. But I think what's even more maybe shocking to people than the number itself is the way the financial media reported about it, because they completely downplayed the significance of this report. In fact, it didn't even come up in today's Fed testimony. Powell was up on Capitol Hill for the second day today, this time with the House Banking Committee. I'm going to talk about the testimony a bit later in the podcast, but this topic didn't even come up, in fact, during the podcast or during the, the, the hearings, Powell continued to say that, you know, inflation is in a good pace. Excuse me, Inflation is in a good place. And that, you know, we're headed to 2%. You know, what is he talking about? You know, I guess he didn't even look at these numbers. But anyway, the number came out, the year over year number, which is the one that they seem to be focusing on, came out at 3% year over year. CPI gain January 2024 to January 2025, the expectation was 2.9. So the media is downplaying it as well. You know, it's not that bad. It was only 1/10 higher than we thought it was going to be. Well, I mean, that's still an important 10th when the Fed is counting on a glide path to two. And now you're up at three. But if you look at the year over year core, which they claim to be more important, that was higher by 2 10. It was supposed to be 3.1 and it was 3.3. So that's even farther away from 2%. But what's really more significant and what didn't get a lot of media attention was the month gain. It was 0.5. That's a lot higher than the 0.3 that they expected. I mean, it's 60% higher. That is a big miss or beat, you know, depending on your perspective, with higher inflation. Now, if you annualize 0.5. Right. If we got 0.5 every month, that's 6.2% inflation. That's three times the Fed's 2% target. This is a big deal. Now I know a lot of people will say, well, you know, it's one month. You know, we, we, we can't make a big deal about one month. It's not just one month. If you look at the last three months, the average is 0.4. That's 5% inflation. 4.95% inflation. That is a big deal. Three months is an entire quarter. How do you dismiss that? But also, if you go back another month, we have now had four consecutive months of rising inflation and higher than expected inflation. We went from point two to 0.3, from point three, 2.4, from point four to point five. So a two to three, three to four. Well, it's four months. I thought, why am I. Oh yeah, because it was point one before that. So went to point two, point three, point four and point five. Right. So we've had four consecutive months where inflation has gone up. Now to me that sounds like a trend. Right? How do you dismiss four months in a row? I mean, if inflation or CPI continued on this exact same trend where next month it was 0.6, then 0.7, then 0.8. Right. If it did that, I'm not saying it's going to do that. I mean, it probably won't be that bad. But if it did, we'd be looking at 13% for 2025. I mean, that's way worse than, than the worst year of Biden at 9.1, which I think was 2022 or 2021. So that is a big deal. But you know, I remember a year ago, or not quite when we were getting some lower inflation numbers, but we still had a higher headline number on the year over year, but we were getting some lower monthly numbers. Everybody was saying, oh, don't pay attention to that year over near year number. Look at the trend, look what's happened in the last quarter. This shows that we're making a lot of progress because inflation is coming down. Well, the same people who were saying, oh, we really got to focus on this short term trend when the trend was for lower inflation are completely ignoring the short term trend now when that trend is for higher inflation. So this is a bad report all around. The media didn't even come close to covering just how bad it was. Powell didn't acknowledge it. You know, I keep hearing him, you know, when they ask him a question in the hearings, you know, how are you going to react if Trump does this or Trump says this? He says, well, we're just going to keep our heads down and working Maybe that's the problem. Their heads are down. They can't see what's right in front of them. Right. Maybe they should look up, right, and take a look at the data. You know, I'm getting a little bit ahead of myself. But one thing he said yesterday when he spoke in front of the Senate, he said that inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2%. Well, what do you mean? On Friday, last week, and I spoke about it on this podcast, we had a huge surge in inflation expectations, the highest since 2008 at 4.1. So if consumers now expect 4.1% inflation, how is it that Powell is saying that the expectations are still well anchored at 2%? I mean, only Republicans think that inflation is going to be 2%. In fact, they think it's going to be zero. The Democrats, you know, think it's going to be 5%. But the average with the independents and all that was 4.1. So, you know, Trump is, I mean, Powell is just completely wrong. And, you know, of course, if you look at how, you know, the numbers came out, the Democrats jumped all over this to blame it on Trump. You know, Schumer called it Trumpflation. Hey, Trump, inflation is here. He looked at the January numbers to say it's Trumpflation. Well, Trump was only president for 10 days in January, right? Biden was president for 20. So how is it Trump's fault? In fact, none of the price increases in January have anything to do with Trump. I mean, there's always a lag. It's going to be Biden inflation for a long time. Eventually, it's going to be Trumpflation. Don't get me wrong, Trumpflation is coming. We just don't have it yet. But the Republicans are. I mean, the Democrats are already blaming it on Trump, and of course the Republicans are saying it's Bidenflation continuing. But at some point, they're gonna own it, right? They're gonna own this economy. They're going to own this inflation, which is going to be a big problem for Trump and the Republicans. And, you know, this is why it's so important to be critical of, of the Republicans and Trump when they deserve to be criticized. And I'm not saying that Donald Trump doesn't get stuff right. There's plenty of things that I like that he's doing, and I don't even have to bother to point those out because there's so many other people who are pointing out all the things that Trump is doing, correct? Like what's going on with Doge and what's going on with USAID and all this stuff is great that this is all happening. It's not enough to save us. I mean, it mitigates the problem somewhat. It shines a light on government corruption, which doesn't surprise me because, you know, the most corrupt people in any country always end up working for government. I mean, that's the way it is. You get power in government, and so corruption is drawn to power and power corrupts. So it's just, that's how it happens in the free market, is where you have, you know, honesty. Because people have to earn a living. They don't have power. They have to, you know, get people to voluntarily do business with them to make money. When you're in government, you use the force of government, people are stuck. You know, you sell your power and it's, it's, it's very corrupting in, in, in nature. But the problem is since so many, you know, Trump backers and Trump, they're talking about how great it's going to be, how great it's going to be, you know, it's a golden age of America. Everything's great when it doesn't turn out that way, right? Trump is going to get blamed, his policies are going to get blamed. The Republicans are going to get blamed. The Democrats are going to say, I told you so. You know, I've seen this movie before. I was a big critic of George Bush in 2005 and 6 and 7, all the years leading up to the housing crisis, and none of the other Republicans on television would criticize him. Now, at least back then, they still let me on the air to criticize Bush. And I said, look, you know, there's a financial crisis coming, there's a housing bubble. The Fed has, you know, made all these mistakes and we're headed for a crisis. And everybody else was talking about how great everything was because they didn't want to criticize a Republican president. Well, I did, but the problem was when everything collapsed, it was all then blamed on Republican policies. And that's how we got eight years of Obama. So maybe if more people had been critical of Bush, maybe we would have had a better candidate than John McCain, who might have been able to beat Obama. But that didn't happen. And Obama promised to do a lot of things differently, which, of course was a lie. He didn't. But the same thing is happening now. And I think the difference really is that networks like Fox, I mean, I get on there once in a while, but I used to be on all the time in 2005, 6 and 7, they had me on. I mean, I was on all the time criticizing Bush. I was on CNBC or all the time criticizing Bush, cnn, msnbc, none of those networks had me on at all. Except Fox has me on a little bit now. I still go on Newsmax or One American News, you know, but not, not really that much. And the thing is that the left stations completely don't want me on anymore. That's how polarizing. They used to let me come on and be critical of Democrats. Now they won't. Right. They don't want, they don't want my criticism at all. And neither do like Fox. They want people coming on cheerleading Trump. So if you have anything negative to say, well, you're not welcome there either. So I, you know, I'm not welcome anywhere in the mainstream media, really. I mean, so if you want to hear my perspective, which is the truth, you gotta listen to my podcast, you know, you, or you gotta listen to other people's podcasts where I'm a guest, right? There are plenty of people who have their own podcasts who invite me out. I go on other people's podcasts all the time, but I don't get the type of attention that I used to get. And that just shows you how much more polarizing the media is, where everybody just takes a side and you either got to be on one side or the other and there's no room if you're in the middle, which is where I am. I mean, I'm an equal opportunity quote critic. I criticize the Republicans when they are deserving of criticism, and I criticize the Democrats when they're deserving of criticism. And I tell the truth and I know what needs to be done. I know the real state of the economy. But that perspective is a lot harder to find, which is why there was nobody in financial media today pointing out how horrible these inflation numbers are and how they prove that the Fed is behind the curve on the wrong track. The Fed is cutting rates when it should be hiking rates. And I think the markets are just starting to figure that out. And I'm going to talk about the evidence of that on the other side of this break. So don't go anywhere. We'll be right back.
