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You make no friends in the pits and you take no prisoners. One minute, you're up half a million in soybeans, and the next, boom. Your kids don't go to college and they've repossessed your Bentley. Are you with me? The revolution starts now. Starts now. We have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it. Turn those machines back on. You are about to enter the Peter Schiff Show. Don't be divided. If we lose freedom here, there's no place to escape to. This is the last stand on earth. The Peter Schiff show is on. When they decided that they wanted to make a virtue out of selfishness. Your money, your stories, your freedom. The Peter Schiff Show. Welcome, everybody. Well, hopefully everybody got a chance to listen to the longest, I think, State of the Union address ever. At least the longest one I can remember watching. And, you know, it started even later for me here in Puerto Rico because we're an hour past east coast time. So the President started the talk at 10 o', clock, so it was beyond midnight by the time he wrapped it up. And anyway, I was particularly upset about the whole thing, not just because it was unnecessarily long. And I don't object to some of the medals that were awarded to some deserving people, although I don't know when that became part of the State of the Union. I don't know when they started. Like, I don't know if I even remember a State of the Union where they handed out these presidential awards. But what bothered me about the State of the Union was all the lies, the exaggerations that were told. I mean, it wasn't just spin. I mean, they're always trying to put a good spin on stuff, right? No matter, you know, who you are. You know, you always come out and say that the economy is doing good, the State of the Union is strong even when that's not the case. But the lies really are just over the top. I mean, not that everything that the President said was a lie, but I want to focus on those because there were a lot of them. And the ones that I'm most concerned about and the ones I'm going to discuss on today's podcast, are the ones that relate specifically to the economy. Because that's really, you know, my area of expertise, what I think is relevant to the audience, to my clients, is the economy. I mean, there were lies that had nothing to do with the economy, but I'm just going to let those slide. And I just don't really feel like discussing them all. I was writing down a bunch of notes as I was watching the address. And I'm just going to kind of discuss what I wrote down in the order that I jotted it down, which I suppose is the order in which the President spoke these things because I was writing them, you know, as I was listening. So one of the first things he started to talk about was housing. And he talked about housing several times during, during his, his talk. But one of the things he, he flat out came out and said, and he had mentioned this before, and I pointed out the absurdity of it before, and this is not a lie. This is just an example of really bad policy that he's advocating. Trump said his main goal is to keep housing prices high and to make sure they keep going up. Now how is that helpful to young families who want to buy a home? Why is preventing real estate from becoming more affordable, you know, a good objective for the President to have? You know, the first time home buyer now is 40 years old. That's the oldest. And I don't know when. But the reason people have to wait until they're 40 to buy a home is because it takes a lot more money to afford one. There may be some young families who would like to have a home in their early 30s. The best way to make that possible is for the price to go down. But Donald Trump said he doesn't want that. And he specifically said the reason he wants the people who own homes to be rich, to stay rich. He's very excited that people own overpriced homes. Now how do I know the homes are overpriced? Because they're not selling. There's a record now amount of unsold homes. Real estate transactions are collapsing because there's a big disconnect between the price and what people can afford to pay. Now, ultimately the market will correct that disconnect with a drop in prices. That, that's inevitable. That is the free market solution. When you have overpriced homes, the prices come down because home prices are worth what the buyer can afford to pay. Because at the end of the day, if you have to sell your house, you can only sell based on what somebody is willing and able to pay. Now if you don't want to sell your house, then you don't have to sell. But you can't just pretend that your house is worth, let's say, a million dollars. If you can't sell it for a million dollars, if you'd have to drop the price to 600,000 to sell it, then that's what it's worth. But what Donald Trump wants is for people to keep pretending that it's worth a million. He doesn't want them to have to deal with reality. He wants homeowners to live in fantasy land. But of course, you know, if they're in fantasy land, maybe he thinks they'll vote Republican or something if. If they think that their homes are still worth, you know, those high prices. But he wants to solve the affordability problem by forcing down mortgage rates. And he bragged about that, about having Fannie and Freddie buy mortgages. Now, one thing he didn't mention, for all you people who own Fannie and Freddie stock, it's one of the Trump trades. He didn't mention anything about any kind of Fannie and Freddie IPO or so. That obviously is not something that's on the President's agenda, because he would have laid it out in the State of the Union. But his main concern is, is keeping mortgage rates as low as possible. And that probably means not doing anything with Fannie and Freddie, because anything he does with Fannie and Freddie is ultimately going to lead to higher interest rates. And he wants lower interest rates because he wants to enable people to overpay for homes by giving them cheap credit. But that is, again, the worst economic policy. We need higher interest rates. Interest rates are too low, and real estate prices are too high. And the reason that real estate prices are too high is because interest rates were so low. The solution to this problem is not to try to maintain artificially high home prices by suppressing interest rates even more and exacerbating both problems. The solution is to allow home prices to fall so that people can afford to buy them without borrowing so much money. So the mortgage is not as important. If the home price goes way down and you don't have to borrow as much money, you can still have lower monthly payments. But Trump wants to achieve home affordability by artificially suppressing the mortgage rate to make it easier for people to overpay for these homes. But this is horrible economic policy. You know, it's the type of economic policy that created the 2008 financial crisis. Yet this is the policy that Donald Trump is committed to pursuing. And all Republicans should be against this policy, but of course, they won't be, because they all follow Trump almost in lockstep. And then if you don't, you're gonna get vilified, you're gonna get primary. The President is gonna do everything he can to get back at anybody who doesn't Fall in line. You know, that's why it's not just Trump that is telling lies in the State of the Union. It's all the Republicans that are behind these lies and that repeat these lies and then make excuses for these lies. There are no excuses. I can't stand it when politicians lie, which is why I just can't stand politicians because that's pretty much all they do. And that's why I don't really have a career in politics, because I don't like to lie. Not only I don't like to be lied to and I don't like to lie. And so it just really bothers me when I hear this stuff. Anyway, so the next thing he started talking about, he started bragging about the stock market almost immediately into the State of the Union. He, he's bragging about 50,000 Dow when the Dow isn't even at 50,000 anymore. And in fact, I think as of maybe yesterday, the market was up a bit today, but The S&P 500 was actually negative on the year. So we were having a down year almost at the end of the first two months. But the Dow right now is about 49,400 and change because it was up well over 300 points today. But he's again he repeated, he said that we achieved 50,000 Dow four years ahead of schedule. First of all, what schedule was there? There was never a schedule about when the Dow is supposed to go anywhere. And of course the President's job is not to get the Dow to go up. That's not why we elect a president. He's not in charge of the stock market. The stock market's supposed to reflect the value of companies. It's not like the President has some kind of mandate to have the stock market hit a particular level. But according to Trump, we got to 50,000 four years ahead of schedule. But there was no schedule. But the reality is when he took office, the dow was at 44,000. He really thought that the schedule, the schedule was for the Dow to go up 6,000 points in four years. That have been like the worst four year period in the history of the Dow. I mean, other than maybe a major bear market like in the 70s or something. I mean, that would be nothing. That would be like an average of 3% a year on the Dow. That was the schedule. I mean, who thought that that was the schedule? I mean, everybody was way more optimistic than that. And he keeps trying to take credit for this miracle that he got the Dow to 50,000 in a year when that's only about 12% higher than it was when he took office. And that's much less than what the Dow went up during the first year of Biden. I mean, he talks about how Biden was the worst president in the history of the world, yet the Dow did better under Biden than it's doing under Trump. So, you know, if the Dow is the benchmark, we got a worse economy now than we had under Biden. Now, I don't think we had a good economy under Biden either, but we don't have one under Trump. And you certainly can't claim we have one based on the stock market. And again, I mentioned this in an earlier podcast. We've got, like the worst performing stock market in the world since Trump was elected. You know, my foreign stock funds were up. You know, I don't feel better than 10%, 11%, 12% gold fund, you know, up 25% or something this year. But my foreign funds are up double digit. The US Market is flat. So if you're going to base the economy on the stock market, how is he saying we got the hottest economy in the world? Which he said. Again, he repeated that we have the cottage economy in the world. Well, based on the stock market, we've got the coldest because we've certainly got the coldest stock market in the world. You could easily see that in the numbers. So if you're gonna grade our economy based on the stock market, which Trump wants to do, it's an F. Stock market performance is bad, but Trump just pretends it's great. Doesn't even matter what the truth is. He just, you know, repeats that lie. He just tells it loud and over and over again. And everybody just seems to accept it as if it's actually true. Anyway, we got a quick commercial break. We're coming right back. I got a lot more to talk about from the spin of the union, so don't go away. 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GDP was up 2.4% during Trump's first year, 2025. Okay, well that's an example of a hot economy that has come back to life. What was the cold economy we had under Biden? Well, in 2024, Biden's last year GDP was up 2.8%. So the economy grew faster when it was dead than it did when Trump brought it back to life. So how are you supposed to say that the economy was dead in 2024 and now it's the hottest in the world when it actually grew more in 2024 than it did in 2025. Now, I don't know what it's going to be in 2026, but I know that the last quarter of 2025 or the estimate was 1.4% GDP growth. Or is that. Yeah, I mean, so the numbers are coming down. The economy is weak. Yes, it was weak under Biden, but it's still weak under Trump. This is all a fantasy that Trump somehow believes, or maybe he doesn't believe and it's just, you know, the art of the lie. I don't know. I don't know whether he believes it himself or this is just how he's promoting everything and then after he talked about that, about how we got this hot economy, he then started talking about how everybody keeps coming up to him and saying, sir, we're winning so much. Sir, I don't know how to handle all this winning. Can you please, please stop? I can't take it anymore. Can't we just win a little less often? We gotta lose once in a while. I mean, I can't handle this constant winning. Like we're winning all the time. I don't know what the hell he's talking about. Yeah, I know. We, you know we won the hockey game, right? We won that. I don't know if Trump's trying to claim credit for the hockey gold medal, but, yeah, we won a few things. But is anybody really coming to Donald Trump complaining about excessive winning, that we're just winning so much now that it's just ridiculous, that it's unfair, that we're just winning constantly? What exactly have we won? You know, nothing. Nothing. All of this stuff that Trump is talking about is just not happening. Now, he bragged about his tax cuts, and he said that we had the largest tax cuts in the history of the country. That's not true. I mean, we've had plenty of tax cuts that were bigger than the big, beautiful bill. Yes, it was a significant tax cut that was a problem because we cut taxes when we already had big deficits, so we couldn't afford a tax cut yet we got one anyway. So cutting taxes was not a good thing. Now, not that I am in favor of high taxes. I'm not. But I recognize that if we're not going to cut spending, then a tax cut is a lie, that the cost of government is not measured by what it collects in tax revenue, but by what it spends. So I want real tax cuts, which means you cut government so that government cost less money because we have to pay for government. Whether we pay for it through taxation or through debt and inflation, we're still paying for it. Taxation is actually the cheapest way to pay for government. Trump's way is even more expensive. The public is going to pay more for government because of these tax cuts than they would have paid had we not cut taxes. So he didn't do anybody any favors. But people think they got something right. But the fact that it's not even the biggest tax cut, he can't even be honest about that. Why doesn't he just say one of the biggest tax cuts? That would be true. I mean, I don't even think it was in the top five, but it's probably somewhere in the top ten, right? Maybe it's the sixth, the seventh, the eighth, I don't know. I mean, it's definitely a decent sized tax cut, but it's not the biggest. But you know, for Trump, everything has to be the biggest. And so if it's not, we just lie about it, right? Just, just say it's the biggest. And then he went over and said, you know, no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, which first of all is also a lie because there's still taxes on Social Security. A lot of people are paying taxes on Social Security, but there was a tax cut for some people on Social Security. But yes, it is no tax on overtime with certain limits and no tax on tips, again with certain limits. But none of that is good. That is not good economic policy. That is Keynesian pump priming. That is demand focused tax cuts. That increases aggregate demand. It doesn't increase supply. These are not supply side targeted economic growth tax cuts. These are tax cuts designed to stimulate spending. Which is the worst thing that you would do is if you're trying to fight inflation. Because fighting inflation means reducing spending, reducing demand, not goosing it with deficit spending. So it's bad economic policy. He also bragged about the tax deductibility of auto loans when you buy a car that's made in America. Now again, that's not a lie, that's the truth. But it's bad policy because it's stimulating demand for cars by allowing people to borrow more money than they otherwise could have borrowed and spend it on cars. So it's stimulating demand and it's accelerating inflation. Let's see, he talked about the Trump accounts. Now he claimed that he had nothing to do with naming them the Trump accounts. Somebody else just decided to call them the Trump accounts. But again, a bad idea because where does the government get the money for the Trump accounts? It has to borrow it. Well, who's gonna pay back the loans? Well, the very people that are supposedly getting these accounts. So we're running up the debt for the young kids that were supposedly setting aside these accounts for. They'd be better off if we just went after the debt now. Yeah, there are some private people, like Michael Dell is putting a bunch of money into these Trump accounts. So I guess that doesn't cost the taxpayer anything. But the whole idea that the government should do this is wrong. And again, is coming from the Trump administration and the Republicans are behind it. You know, if Biden, the Democrats, came up with this plan, the Republicans would oppose it. They're all a bunch of hypocrites. Then Trump talked about the turnaround in the economy. He repeated himself. Right? That's one of the reasons that the State of the Union was so long is because the President kept saying the same stuff. He kept finding new ways to repeat what he had already said. But he said it was the biggest turnaround in history. So we had the biggest economic turnaround in history, meaning going from the worst economy to the greatest economy. And it was like the biggest turnaround ever. And again he fell back on the Dow hitting 50,000 four years ahead of schedule. Again, there was no schedule. And 50,000 was barely above where it was when he inherited it. But again, how is it the biggest turnaround when 2.8% GDP became 2.4% GDP? The economy grew slower during his first year than it did during Biden's last. What got turned around? Nothing. Nothing got turned around. Nothing got any better. This is all again, a fantasy. It's not even a turnaround. And if it were, it, it certainly isn't even close to the greatest turnaround in history. And he credits the turnaround, the reason we had this historic turnaround, according to Trump, the turnaround that, that doesn't exist. But the reason that we had this turnaround was because of his tariffs that were just, you know, struck down correctly by the Supreme Court. So he's saying we got this great turnaround that didn't happen because of his tariffs that were actually harmful. So the economy would have been better than it was. Not that it was great, but it would have been better than it was without the tariffs. Yet he's claiming the tariffs are the reason we had this non existent historic economic turnaround, which we did not have. Anyway, got one more commercial. So stick around, we're coming right back. You can't manage your heart health if you're missing half the info. Standard tests check the basics, but they skip over key markers that could change everything. It's National Heart Month and I've personally been thinking more about my heart health, especially longevity. What surprised me was how much I didn't know until I actually saw my lab results. That's what I like about function. It shows you what's actually happening in your body. Function is designed by world class physicians and trusted by hundreds of thousands of members. Health leaders like Dr. Mark Hyman, Dr. Andrew Huberman and Dr. Jeremy London support it. Because once you understand your health, everything changes. 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Now, the way the government measures it, that's certainly not true. The highest rate we got in any one year was 9.1. Now, we had plenty of years in the double digits in the 70s. Now, we used to measure inflation differently, more honestly. So I think had we measured inflation accurately, it is possible that we may have had the worst inflation that one year. But Trump didn't phrase it that way. He's just talking about the cpi. And so it wasn't the worst as far as modern economists would consider it. But he also didn't inherit 9.1% by the time Biden left office. During his final year, 2024, the CPI was 2.9. So what Trump actually inherited from Biden was a declining CPI that peaked out in 2022 and had been declining for a couple of years. So he inherited that downtrend. What Biden inherited from him was the uptrend. The big spike in inflation began in 2020 and went through 2021 into 2022. Biden inherited that from Trump. That that that started. The reason we had the big price increases was because of the monetary and fiscal stimulus of 2020 and 2021. So Biden inherited a big problem and helped make it worse. But he did inherit an inflation problem from Trump that was in fact bigger than the inflation problem that Trump inherited from Biden. What happened to inflation as measured by the CPI during Trump's first year? It fell to 2.7 from 2.9. Big deal. I mean, it probably would have been 2.7 anyway if, if Harris had won, wouldn't have been much different for 2025, now 2026. I bet that CPI measured inflation this year will be north of 3%. Three something, maybe four. So it's going to be worse. So inflation is no longer trending down, it's trending up. So how did Trump, you know, solve the inflation problem? Obviously he didn't. Now what he pointed to a lot later was these low gas prices. You know, he claimed that there was a station where it was A$85, I forget what state. No, it's not true. It's nowhere near that price. He talked more about A$99. Yes, gas prices are lower than they were when he took office, but they're not that much lower. And they're not going to stay lower, they're going to be higher. I think by the end of this year, prices for gas will be higher than they were when Trump took office. Now getting back to when he talked about the economy, after he talked about this record transformation in a turnaround, going from the worst economy in history to the greatest economy in history in a matter of months, he then went on to brag about how he got it right and how 22 Nobel laureates, right, Nobel Prize winners in economics got it wrong. Because nobody believed that he could turn the economy around the way he did. Well, you know what, maybe they're right because he didn't turn anything around because nothing has changed. It's all in the President's mind. But apparently he thinks he's this economic genius and he should have the Nobel Prize in economics because all the actual Nobel Prize winners got it wrong. And he's the only one, he's the only one that knew how great this economy was going to be under his leadership when, you know, it's only great in his dreams, it's not great in reality. Then he talked about the unfortunate ruling by the Supreme Court. It wasn't unfortunate, it was fortunate and it was correct. But he's, I guess, gonna try to blame, as I said, the Supreme Court for any problems in the economy. Cuz he claimed the tariffs were so great and so to the extent that the tariffs go away now, of course he's already illegally imposed some more tariffs, these 15% across the board tariffs that are also unconstitutional. The problem is how long is it gonna take for somebody else to challenge this? Right? But meanwhile they're only temporary. And how it took so long for the Supreme Court to rule on these unconstitutional tariffs, which it should not have done. The court should have given this ruling because it was so obvious and you know, they should have ruled it months and months ago before all these companies paid all these illegal tariffs. Because now, you know, we've got a problem of how do you refund the money and how are people going to, gonna put in for these refunds? And all the problems, you know, I got, unfortunately, I left my phone on the other side of the room and somebody keeps calling me, so I have no way to stop it from ringing. So hopefully they'll get tired of calling me. They've called me twice now, but I don't want to get up and walk to the other side of the room. But anyway, so, yeah, he's gonna be using the Supreme Court as a very convenient scapegoat. Then he talked about all the great deals that he had negotiated are gonna remain in place even though the Supreme Court did this unfortunate thing. Look, again, there are no great, great deals. I mean, nothing has really happened. You know, the trade deficits are pretty much exactly the same. I guess they didn't get much worse since he became president, but they didn't get any better either. It's about where they were, and that's with all the tariffs. So we haven't had any improvement. We haven't had a bunch of reshoring. We haven't brought manufacturing back. Manufacturing jobs have been lost. In fact, all of last year, we only gained about one hundred and something thousand jobs for the entire year. We barely created any jobs during Trump's first year. Yet he's bragging about, you know, this, this boom in hiring. Again, There is no way that you can replace the income tax with tariffs. It's impossible. That's the reason we don't rely on tariffs, because you can't raise the kind of money that the government spends with tariffs. That's the problem. The reason we could run on tariffs 100 years ago is because we didn't have Social Security, we didn't have Medicare, we didn't have Medicaid, we didn't have the Affordable Care act, we didn't have this massive defense. So if we're going to have all this stuff, then we're stuck with the income tax, because the only way you can afford this stuff is if you have an income tax. So if you don't like paying income taxes and you want to get rid of income taxes, then you got to accept the fact that we got to get rid of all those programs because they go together. You can't have the programs without a way to pay for them. And if the government wasn't taking money directly out of people's paychecks, there's no way they would get it. Now, personally, yeah, I want to get rid of the income tax. I also want to get rid of all those programs, those unconstitutional programs that the income tax is funding. But later in his speech, Donald Trump specifically said, we'll never cut Social Security, we'll never cut Medicare, we'll never cut Medicaid. I'm going to protect those programs. I'm going to make sure there are no cuts to those programs. Okay, well, then he's never going to be able to eliminate the income tax. It's impossible. We're going to have to have bigger deficits, we're going to have to have more inflation. Because Donald Trump refuses to cut any government spending. Yet somehow he calls Massie the Rhino. And he's supposed to be the true Republican who wants big government. And any Republicans who want smaller government, well, they're supposedly the Rhinos. Now, he also lied about prices. Right. He claimed how all the prices are so much lower than when he took office. Now he likes to talk about eggs, which had gone way up. I mean, the egg prices went way up. So then they came down. And there are some prices that are lower now than they were when he took office. But that's just cherry picking. And I have no idea what cherries cost. They probably went up. But if you go grocery shopping, even if some of the items in your cart are cheaper than they were a year ago, more items are more expensive. And when you go and check out, you're paying more money for food now than you were a year ago. It doesn't matter that some of the items are cheaper when on average, the prices went up. And so the President is not being honest when he's trying to claim that everything is cheaper now that he's president. They're not. And then he said this. He said, no one can believe how good the numbers are on falling prices. Yeah. You know why no one could believe it? Because it's not true. Right. That is. Obviously it makes sense. He says no one could believe our numbers on how much prices are falling. Exactly. Why would somebody believe fake numbers? Right. Anybody who's buying stuff knows that prices are going up, so why should we believe these numbers? Right. 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