The Peter Schiff Show Podcast

Episode: War, Oil, and Inflation Are Setting Up Gold’s Next Surge
Host: Peter Schiff
Date: March 13, 2026

Episode Overview

In this episode, Peter Schiff delivers an in-depth analysis of the interplay between war, rising oil prices, inflation, and the precious metals market, with a particular focus on the prospects for gold's next major rally. Schiff critiques mainstream market narratives, dissects recent economic data, and comments on the political discourse under the Trump administration, making the case that current developments are setting the stage for surging gold and silver prices rather than depressing them.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Precious Metals Market Update

• Gold and Silver Performance ([02:00])
  • Gold finished the week down about 1.8%, with a significant drop of over $50 on the day, but closed above $5,000 ($5,020).
  • Silver fell harder, losing 5.5% and closing just above $80.
  • Mining stocks took a steeper hit, down about 6% and are now more than 25% off their highs from weeks ago—technically in a bear market.
  • Schiff insists these pullbacks are buying opportunities:

    "Both metals I believe are great buys where they are right now given the explosive rally that I expect to begin almost any day." ([02:55])

Broader Market and Economic Indicators

• Stock and Bond Markets

  • Major US stock indices fell for the third week, with the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all down for the year.
  • Oil prices surged, closing at $98—a new high.
  • 10-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.28%, with the 30-year closing in on 5%.
  • The US dollar index rose to 100.5.

• Cause and Effect Logic in Markets ([04:30])

  • Rising oil prices are perceived as bearish for gold and stocks, due to fears of higher inflation and delayed Fed rate cuts.
  • Schiff argues this is short-sighted:

    "The war is very expensive. We have to pay for that war. ... The Fed is going to be cornered into monetizing this debt. ... That is bullish for gold and silver and it's bearish for the dollar." ([06:40])

On Stagflation, War, and the Economy

• War’s Impact

  • War spending increases deficits, leading ultimately to money printing and inflation—fuel for a gold rally.
  • Elevated oil and food prices will further harm the US economy.
  • Critiques Donald Trump’s shift on high oil prices:

    "You can't have it both ways. ... Make oil companies great again. We need higher oil prices so oil companies can earn larger profits. ... Average Americans are net losers when they have to pay a lot more for energy." ([08:30])

• US Economy Assessment

  • GDP growth for 2025 (Trump's first year this term) was a modest 2.1%—lower than any Biden year.

    "GDP was up 2.1%. That’s it. ... Trump did worse in his first year than Biden did in any of his four years." ([17:38])

  • Job creation under Trump has been weak: just 150,000 jobs in 2025, versus 2.2 million in Biden’s last year.
  • Budget and trade deficits are larger under Trump.
  • Schiff calls out the myth of an economic "miracle":

    “On what basis did he orchestrate a massive turnaround and a historic boom? Obviously it only exists in his mind.” ([18:50])

• Inflation and Rate Policy

  • Latest personal income and spending numbers show persistent inflation, with core PCE above the Fed’s target and poised to get worse with higher energy costs.
  • "Under Trump, inflation is going to rise with each consecutive year. ... Prices will rise more under Trump than they did over Biden." ([13:52])

Housing Market & Policy

• Housing Affordability Bill ([25:00])
  • Schiff predicts the new “housing affordability” legislation will make homes less affordable by restricting institutional buyers, reducing new construction, and pushing up costs.
  • Labor shortages due to immigration policy will also increase construction costs:

    "If they have to hire Americans and they gotta pay them a lot more money, well, that increases the cost of construction and that increases the price of a home." ([26:45])

  • Anticipates a “big drop in housing prices” which would trigger a reverse wealth effect and strain the banking system.
  • Points out government mismanagement:

    "Whenever Congress passes a bill, if you want to know what the effect... just look at the title. And it’s the opposite." ([25:19])

War Reception, Political Analysis & Economic Effects

• Skepticism of Official Narratives ([31:45])

  • Expresses deep distrust of government messaging on the war's progress:

    "I don't believe anything the government tells me about this war right now. ... But Trump lies about everything. ... How do you know when Trump is lying? His lips are moving." ([32:30])

  • Criticizes Republican and pundit echo chamber for repeating the “economic miracle” narrative despite weak data.

• Unpopularity of the War

  • Notes the war is unpopular with Democrats and independents, though Republicans support Trump.
  • Warns war will become less popular as it drags on and prices rise:

    "As the war continues and gas prices continue to move up ... the war is gonna be a lot less popular." ([35:44])

  • Predicts the war will not end quickly, to America’s further detriment.

• Macro Implications

  • Spiraling national debt (nearly $40 trillion) and rising borrowing costs are unsustainable.
  • Companies reluctant to claim tariff refunds due from government, fearing Trump reprisals:

    "Companies are afraid to ask for a tax refund that they are legally entitled to because they're afraid of retribution by Donald Trump." ([39:25])

  • Condemns US drift to “banana republic” governance:

    “That is not a free market economy. That is not capitalism.” ([40:24])

Investment Outlook and Market Strategy

• Gold, Silver, and Commodities

  • Schiff maintains gold and silver are poised for a major breakout as the implications of war and deficits become apparent.
  • Other commodities are rallying as well, with gold taking a temporary breather.

• Bitcoin

  • Notes bitcoin’s temporary spike above $73,900, attributing strength to persistent buying by Michael Saylor and traditional gold traders reallocating part of their holdings.
  • Expects the next gold rally to trigger a significant downward move in bitcoin (“dead cat bounce”) ([44:32]).

• Practical Advice

  • Encourages listeners to take advantage of current pullbacks to accumulate precious metals:

    "If I was underweight gold and silver mining stocks I would be adding to my position right here. And if I didn't have any, oh I would be a big buyer, right. ... If you wait a couple more months, who knows how much higher prices could go." ([45:16])

  • Recommends his own Euro Pacific Gold Fund for exposure.

• Dollar Outlook

  • Sees the US dollar's brief rally as unimpressive, arguing the safe-haven crown has shifted to gold:

    "I think the dollar's reign as the primary reserve currency, as the safe haven is over. I think the crown has been passed to gold." ([46:15])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Mainstream Analysis
  "The markets have got this wrong. ... This is bullish for gold. It is not bearish. And in fact, it is bearish for the dollar." ([06:50])
• On Trump’s Economic Boasting
  "On what basis did he orchestrate a massive turnaround and a historic boom? Obviously it only exists in his mind." ([18:50])
• On Housing Policy Irony
  "Whenever Congress passes a bill, if you want to know what the effect of the bill is going to be, just look at the title. And it's the opposite." ([25:19])
• On US Political-Economic Drift
  "That is not a free market economy. That is not capitalism. ... This is like Banana Republic style, where everybody's palm's gotta get greased." ([40:24])
• On Gold vs. Bitcoin
  "I think the catalyst for the next leg down in bitcoin, and it should be a big leg, will be the move up in gold and silver. And I expect that almost any day." ([44:40])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Precious Metals Market Recap – [02:00]
• Oil, Rates, and War Analysis – [05:40]
• Inflation & GDP Numbers – [13:45]
• Disputing Trump’s Economic Claims – [17:38] and [18:50]
• Housing Market and Legislation – [25:00]
• War Skepticism and Republican Narrative – [31:45]
• Long-term Investment Outlook in Precious Metals – [45:16]
• Dollar vs. Gold Safe-Haven Status – [46:15]

Summary

Schiff’s tone is emphatic, combative, and analytical. He urges listeners to see through the short-term noise surrounding rate hikes, war, and inflation. He believes current market conditions and poor fiscal policies are deeply bullish for precious metals and negative for the dollar. Despite volatile pullbacks, he presses the case for buying gold and silver now, dismisses the strength in Bitcoin as temporary, and denounces the present US administration’s economic self-congratulation and policy choices as either delusional or dishonest.

Listeners interested in macroeconomic trends, contrarian investing, and hard-hitting political critique will find this episode particularly relevant as global instability continues to upend conventional wisdom about markets and money.