The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode Summary:

A New Primary Calendar Changes the Race for the Presidency
Release Date: February 8, 2023
Host: Tyler Foggatt
Guest: Benjamin Wallace-Wells, staff writer at The New Yorker

Overview

This episode examines the Democratic Party's decision to overhaul the presidential primary calendar for 2024—moving South Carolina to the first position, ahead of the long-standing openers, Iowa and New Hampshire. Host Tyler Foggatt and guest Benjamin Wallace-Wells discuss what this shift reveals about the party’s evolving priorities, its implications for Black and working-class voter influence, and the broader effects on the primary process, regional politics, and candidate platforms.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Significance of Primary Order

• Why Iowa and New Hampshire Came First

  • The traditional primacy of Iowa and New Hampshire has rarely been questioned—seen as natural as "the capital's in D.C., Pluto is a planet" (B: 01:21).
  • Sentimentality exists among political reporters about the unique, intimate campaign environments these small states provide (C: 01:50).

• Why the Change Matters Now

  • Changing the order is "clearly" a move with consequences; it challenges the assumption that tradition alone should dictate the process (B: 01:36).
  • Quote (B):
    "I'm wondering if we could start out by just talking about why that sort of thinking is so naive... why should we not just take it for granted that this has been happening in Iowa for so long?" (01:36)

The Political Dynamics Behind Selecting South Carolina

• South Carolina’s Rising Role

  • Biden’s close alignment with Rep. Jim Clyburn, a central political figure in South Carolina, is a factor but not the sole explanation (C: 03:15).
  • Wallace-Wells: South Carolina’s process is viewed as "top-down," but Biden’s victory required grassroots support, mirroring Buttigieg's and Sanders' campaigns elsewhere (C: 04:10).
  • Quote (C):
    "The reason that voters in South Carolina wanted him may not have been so fleeting or particular... They may have been rooted in the fact that he had a reasonable idea for where the party needed to go." (04:10)

• Is This a 'Reward' for Political Support?

  • There is an element of "quid pro quo" in rewarding states that supported Biden in 2020, but the move also serves broader aims of recalibrating the party's representation (C: 05:45).

Re-centering Party Power: Race, Class, and Geography

• Giving Black Voters More Deciding Power

  • This change is “absolutely” intended to ensure the Democratic nominating process reflects America—diversity, especially Black voters, is at the center (C: 06:16).
  • Michigan’s earlier placement addresses working-class representation, not just race.

• Shift Toward Moderation

  • Moving key primaries to states like South Carolina, Georgia, and Michigan brings centrist, “median voter” issues forward, rather than the “liberal alliance” of California or Massachusetts (C: 06:16).

Impact on Campaign Issues and Tactics

• From Ethanol to Reparations?

  • Iowa’s fixation on ethanol subsidies influenced candidate platforms; Wallace-Wells predicts South Carolina and Georgia will mean more focus on racial justice and policing rather than entrenched local issues (B: 07:41; C: 08:28).
  • The hope is for more flexibility in the process—"it doesn't necessarily institute South Carolina as the kickoff state for all time... it can change things and move things around" (C: 08:28).

• Entrenched Local Politics vs. National Diversity

  • Rotation is suggested as an antidote to stale, place-bound campaigning and ossified “ways to win” (C: 08:28).

The Republican Context

• GOP Sticking With Tradition—For Now
  • Republicans have not signaled changes to their calendar, with Iowa still likely first—a reflection of their current focus on the "Trump-DeSantis dynamic" (B: 10:33; C: 10:42).

Voter Representation and Party Identity

• Debating 'Rural' as a Euphemism

  • The shift challenges the coded language of ‘rural’ and ‘working class’ as synonymous with ‘white’. As Wallace-Wells notes:
    "A ton of the American working class is not white. And as a party, it's essential that the Democrats appeal to those voters and sort of, not to be too jargony, but center them." (C: 13:50)

• Swing State Math

  • South Carolina is unlikely to vote Democratic in general elections, but its selection helps to highlight the fast-changing politics of the broader Southeast, including Georgia, North Carolina, and Virginia (C: 15:20).

Political Stakes for Biden

• Solidifying Biden’s Position

  • With Democratic success in the midterms and Biden’s unchallenged primacy, the calendar change raises fewer concerns about favoritism or strategy for Biden.
  • "To me, the stakes are a little lower... Does this calendar kind of weight the presidential nominating contest towards Biden? Probably a little bit. Will that matter now? Probably not, because he probably won't have serious opposition..." (C: 17:20)

• Setting Up for Other Leaders?

  • Speculation about helping Kamala Harris’s prospects if Biden steps aside is dismissed; changes are more about long-term coalition building than individual benefit (B: 18:14; C: 20:06).
  • New generation leaders such as Raphael Warnock are seen as likely future central figures (C: 20:06).

Effects on State and Local Politics

• Media, Narrative, and Storytelling

  • The biggest effect may be on what places and people campaign coverage focuses on, and thus whose stories shape the national political conversation (B: 21:35; C: 21:50).
  • More time in Detroit, Flint, Atlanta, and rural Georgia will change the issues candidates address.
  • "There will be a subtle but interesting change in what stories are told at the outset of the presidential campaign..." (C: 21:50)

• Early Primaries as the Most Dynamic Phase

  • Early, localized campaign events are the "most hopeful, but also the most dynamic parts" of any cycle. Changing the scene is seen as refreshing for the process (C: 23:34).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Tradition and Naivety:
  • "The first primary’s in Iowa, the capital's in D.C., Pluto is a planet—like, you know, next." (B: 01:21)
• On Clyburn and Biden:
  • "Clyburn has sort of gotten Biden to do a lot. This might be, like, an extension of that." (B: 03:47)
• On the Need for Change:
  • "It's good for the party. It would be good for the Republican Party, too, to shake it up a little bit." (C: 08:28)
• On Rural Voters and Racial Politics:
  • "'I represent rural voters, too.' Which to me, sort of implied... pushing against this idea of rural almost as a euphemism for white working class voters." (B: 13:26)
• On Shifting Narratives:
  • "The basic importance of this choice is just its narrative. It's just what we see, what we talk about at the beginning..." (C: 21:50)
• On Refreshing the Process:
  • "At least, you know, we won’t have all these videos of candidates crowding together at the same inn in Iowa City drinking those pie milkshakes. Yeah, I'm ready to see what South Carolina has to offer." (B: 24:17)
• On Local Color:
  • "Let's do some barbecue." (C: 24:35)

Important Timestamps

• [01:21] – Opening discussion on the "naturalness" of Iowa as the first primary state.
• [02:47] – The significance of South Carolina being moved to first.
• [03:15] – Discussion of Biden's relationship with Jim Clyburn and South Carolina.
• [05:45] – The broader attempt within the Democratic Party to rethink who its "kingmakers" are.
• [06:16] – Shifting the party toward greater racial and working-class representation.
• [08:28] – Hope for party nomination processes to stay flexible rather than ossified.
• [13:50] – On how the Democratic party is "centering" nonwhite working-class voters.
• [15:20] – Analysis of swing states and the implications for Democratic victories.
• [17:20] – Assessment of Biden’s strong position and the stakes of calendar changes.
• [20:06] – Discussion of Kamala Harris and generational leadership transitions.
• [21:50] – The narrative impact and local focus of the new primary order.
• [23:34] – Reflection on the hopefulness and dynamism of early campaign phases.
• [24:35] – Light-hearted anticipation of the new South Carolina campaign setting.

Conclusion

This episode provides a nuanced breakdown of the Democratic Party's move to reorder the presidential primary calendar, highlighting both its short-term political calculations and its long-term signals about demographic priorities. The conversation underscores how central questions of race, working-class identity, and regional politics are to the evolving face of the party, while noting that these changes—while important—are less likely to affect the 2024 outcome due to Biden’s strong standing. The episode paints a vivid picture of how a seemingly procedural calendar decision can reshape American political storytelling at the outset of the presidential campaign.