The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: "A Stark Warning About the 2026 Election, with Robert Kagan"

Date: January 16, 2026
Host: Susan Glasser with Evan Osnos, Jane Mayer
Guest: Robert Kagan, historian, author, and Brookings Institution Senior Fellow

Overview

In this urgent episode, The New Yorker’s political team speaks with Robert Kagan, noted author and long-time observer of American democracy, about his stark and prescient warnings regarding the direction of U.S. politics under Donald Trump. Drawing from his widely discussed 2016 essay, "This Is How Fascism Comes to America," Kagan revisits his predictions, assesses their accuracy, and delivers a chilling appraisal of the 2026 election and the health of American democracy. The conversation moves briskly through the failures of political and societal elites, the role of Trump’s movement, implications for foreign policy, and what average citizens can do in the face of mounting authoritarianism.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Why Kagan Saw It Coming (06:06–09:03)

• Kagan’s 2016 Essay: Susan Glasser reads from Kagan’s essay, highlighting its foresight and chilling accuracy.
  • Quote: "Does vast power uncorrupt? This, you concluded, is how fascism comes to America. Not with jackboots and salutes, but with a television huckster, a phony billionaire, a textbook egomaniac..." — Susan Glasser, quoting Robert Kagan (05:25)
• Roots of Trumpism: Kagan explains that Trump’s approach—seeking power for domination, not transactional goals—was clear from the start.
  • Quote: "[Trump] is about domination...He has managed to get pretty much the entire world, except for the leaders of the other two empires...to accept his domination." — Robert Kagan (06:32)
• Revival of Supremacist Movements: Kagan ties Trumpism to a continual, underlying current of white Christian supremacy in American history.
  • "He placed himself...in front of a movement that has always existed in America...about white Christian supremacy." — Robert Kagan (07:16)

2. Historical Perspective and Where We Stand (09:03–10:32)

• Longer Historical Timeline: Kagan argues that most Americans have a myopic view, mistaking the post-WWII period for normalcy, whereas the reactionary movement Trump leads seeks to overturn fundamental principles of the Founders.
  • "[They] want to return to the world of hierarchy that existed before the American Revolution." — Robert Kagan (09:36)
• Current Status: Kagan sees the process of democratic backsliding as "virtually complete." Only the absence of a final, overt act prevents full collapse.

3. Specific Warning for 2026 Election (10:32–12:20)

• Dress Rehearsal in Minnesota: Kagan points to federal intervention in Minnesota as both practice and prelude for using force to subdue Democratic states and seize control.
  • Quote: "What we're seeing in Minnesota is...an effort to desensitize the country to the idea of using overwhelming force..." – Robert Kagan (10:58)
• Inevitable Subversion: He predicts that Trump will not allow himself to lose in 2026, forecasting provocation of unrest to justify invoking the Insurrection Act and possibly seizing ballots.

4. The Response (or Lack Thereof) from the Majority and Elites (13:00–16:51)

• Majority’s Role: Kagan divides the public: 40% enthusiastically favor authoritarianism, another 30% are passive, disbelieving, or indifferent.
  • "40% of the country will say, yes, let's have a dictatorship led by Donald Trump...Another 30%...will be either disbelieving...or indifferent..." – Robert Kagan (13:03)
• Elite Failure: He is astonished at elite acquiescence—political, business, and foreign policy leaders have failed to resist, citing careerism and cowardice.
  • "The failure of the elite is, to me, the most astonishing thing. The founders would be in disbelief..." – Robert Kagan (15:43)
• The Supreme Court: Kagan is skeptical the Court would intervene to stop a slide into dictatorship, referencing history and recent actions.
  • "There's no indication of it so far...the court has frequently throughout history supported oppression..." – Robert Kagan (16:02)

5. Authoritarianism and U.S. Foreign Policy (17:58–29:41)

• "The Jungle Grows Back": Kagan argues Trump’s foreign policy signals a return to a 'might makes right' world. Trump's actions have shattered the post-1945 international order.
  • "We now have European countries...sending troops to defend NATO territory against possible aggression by the United States..." – Robert Kagan (19:48).
• Multipolar Chaos and War: Shift to a multipolar order will see "repeated major conflicts," analogizing to the turbulent 19th and early 20th centuries.
• Russia & Spheres of Influence: Russia’s vision of a multipolar world is coming true; spheres of influence include the Baltics, Poland, etc.
  • "Ukraine is the beginning of the restoration of the Russian sphere of interest..." – Robert Kagan (24:13)
• Domestic Authoritarianism Strengthened by War: Kagan fears foreign adventurism, like war with Iran or Venezuela, will be used to further militarize society and quash dissent.
  • "They are trying to make the military...his personal weapon...this militarization of American foreign policy has domestic purposes." – Robert Kagan (26:26)
• Historical Analogies: Kagan invokes Hitler’s use of war to toughen and regiment society, drawing a parallel to current U.S. trends.
  • "The wars and the domestic oppression were all one and the same. It's very much a model that I see playing out right now in this country." – Robert Kagan (28:47)
• MAGAs and War: The MAGA base’s allegiance to Trump will, Kagan predicts, override objections to any war—even as it contradicts supposed non-interventionist promises.

6. Possible Pathways Out and Citizen Action (31:14–36:43)

• No Easy Historical Precedents: Glasser and Kagan reject analogies to McCarthyism or normalcy after crisis; the scale of elite failure is unprecedented.
  • "I'm not really willing to go out that far...it's too far for most people to imagine...that what's at risk right now is literally our democracy..." – Robert Kagan (32:18)
• Democratic Weakness: Kagan criticizes Democrats for timidity, particularly on issues like defunding ICE, due to outdated political fears.
  • "They're afraid of these issues...the one thing that could be done right now...would be to defund ICE..." – Robert Kagan (33:41)
• What Can Citizens Do? Press elected officials, protest, and add grassroots pressure—the basics of citizen action, but now more urgent.
  • "Do what you would do if you were upset that your property taxes were being raised..." – Robert Kagan (35:04)
  • "Everybody can do [something]. It's utterly obvious. And they've done it a million times when they actually cared and weren't afraid." (36:32)

7. Personal Toll and Closing Reflections (36:43–38:52)

• The Cassandra Role: Kagan admits isolation as a persistent, public critic but remains focused on trying to offer clarity.
  • "I've become a fairly solitary person...just trying to do my work and say what I need to say..." – Robert Kagan (37:14)
• No Comfort: Kagan does not wish listeners to sleep easy—urgency, not complacency, is called for.
  • "I don't want anybody sleeping well. This is not a time to be." – Robert Kagan (38:41)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the authoritarian temptation:
  "This...is how fascism comes to America. Not with jackboots and salutes, but with a television huckster, a phony billionaire..." — Robert Kagan, as quoted by Susan Glasser (05:25)
• On elite acquiescence:
  "The failure of the elite is, to me, the most astonishing thing. The founders would be in disbelief, quite honestly." — Kagan (15:43)
• On the 2026 election:
  "There is no chance in the world that Donald Trump is going to allow himself to lose in the 2026 elections..." — Kagan (11:22)
• On militarization and war at home:
  "This militarization of American foreign policy has domestic purposes..." — Kagan (26:51)
• On citizen responsibility:
  "Do what you would do if you were upset that your property taxes were being raised. Contact your elected officials." — Kagan (35:04)
• On his legacy as a Cassandra:
  "I'm just trying to do my work and say what I need to say when I think it's appropriate to say it." — Kagan (37:14)
• On urgency:
  "I don't want anybody sleeping well. This is not a time to be." — Kagan (38:41)

Important Segment Timestamps

• 05:25 – Glasser reads from Kagan’s 2016 essay predicting Trumpism as incipient authoritarianism
• 06:06 – Kagan on Trump's personality and movement roots
• 10:58 – Kagan warns of federal “dress rehearsal” for invasion of Democratic states in Minnesota
• 13:03 – Breakdown of how much of the public supports or acquiesces to authoritarianism
• 15:43 – Elites' and Republican leaders' complicity
• 16:02 – Supreme Court’s likely failure to check executive overreach
• 19:36 – Kagan's analogy of the jungle returning, international order breakdown
• 24:13 – How Russian, Chinese ambitions will reshape the world
• 26:24 – How war advances domestic oppression and personal rule
• 32:18 – Why there’s no clear historical answer for how this crisis ends
• 35:04 – What citizens can concretely do
• 37:14 – Kagan on life as a “Cassandra”
• 38:41 – "Don’t sleep well" — the warning as the episode closes

Tone and Takeaways

• Unapologetically sober and direct in language, Kagan and hosts refuse false optimism; instead, they demand wakefulness and immediate civic engagement.
• Historical analogies serve to illuminate both the gravity and uniqueness of the current moment.
• The central unifying message: American democracy is in real and immediate peril, and extraordinary action, both at the citizen and elite level, is required.

For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode, more than a typical policy roundtable, is a clarion call. Kagan’s standing warnings—long dismissed by many as alarmist—are not just re-examined but affirmed by recent events. The hosts intermittently inject moments of astonished agreement, but the overall effect is intentionally discomforting. The conversation’s purpose is not to reassure, but to incite action and reflection in a moment of legitimate crisis.