Podcast Summary:
The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Episode: An "Anger Olympics" Between Trump and the Rest of the 2024 Republican Field
Date: February 3, 2023
Host: Jane Mayer
Panelists: Susan B. Glasser, Evan Osnos
Main Theme
This episode dives into the early dynamics of the 2024 Republican presidential field, centering on Donald Trump’s continued dominance and examining the ambitions and strategies of key challengers like Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, and Mike Pompeo. The hosts explore why U.S. presidential campaigns are so lengthy, the impact of money and media on campaigns, and the Republican Party's internal struggles over ideology, personality, and its future direction. The overarching question: In a party fundamentally shaped by Trump, can anyone else break through?
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. The Perpetual Presidential Campaign in America
[03:38]
- Why so long? The hosts reflect on why U.S. presidential campaigns drag on for years, unlike the brief campaign periods in countries like Japan or the U.K. The answer: the enormous amounts of money required and the professionalization of politics (consultants, pollsters, TV, etc.).
- Susan Glasser: “...this is actually going to be a shorter campaign than the last couple presidential cycles.”
- Jane Mayer: “It's a whole profession of consultants and pollsters and TV stations that live off of the advertisements...”
2. Nikki Haley’s Entry and the Dance of the Enablers
[07:00]
- Profile: Former South Carolina governor/UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is discussed as a formidable campaigner but a figure known for shifting allegiances, especially post-January 6.
- Susan Glasser: “She was against Donald Trump ever so hesitantly... then she actually not only reversed herself, but she said, I will not run if Donald Trump is running... that is no longer an operative statement.” [07:00]
- Her narrative as the daughter of Indian immigrants and her historical significance in South Carolina (Confederate flag, appointment of Tim Scott) are noted.
- Glasser delivers a widely cited take: “She’s out there first in the very heated campaign to run for vice president.” [08:22]
- Viability: Skepticism about whether the current GOP would elevate a woman of color, given ongoing culture wars, and recognition that she enjoys substantial backing from traditional, big-money GOP donors (e.g., the Adelson family, Paul Singer).
3. Ron DeSantis as Trump’s Real Rival
[11:58-16:07]
- Described as “the one that everybody is waiting for right now,” DeSantis rose because of his pro-Trump strategy in 2018. Trump’s grievance that DeSantis "would be nothing without me" has some truth.
- Susan Glasser: “[DeSantis] rebooted his gubernatorial candidacy... and not winning until he decided to become the over the top pro Trump candidate.” [12:16]
- DeSantis’s identity as a “fighter” is interpreted as an attempt to channel Trump’s antagonism, but “without all the baggage.” Yet, he’s seen as lacking warmth/charisma.
- Evan Osnos: “He’s trying to pull out this one string... I can be the fighter that Trump was without all of the baggage...” [14:28]
- DeSantis’s culture war tactics, such as attacks on Black history curriculum and his migrant flight stunt, are seen as going even further than Trump—and seem to work in Florida, where he won big in 2022.
- Susan Glasser: “You could say he’s Trump without the chaos, but he also might be Trump without the charisma.” [16:07]
- Highlight: Media, particularly the Murdoch empire, has played a strong role in building DeSantis’s national profile.
4. The Problem of a Divided Field
[18:28]
- Establishment efforts to consolidate behind one challenger aim to avoid splitting the anti-Trump vote as in 2016.
- Discussion of other possible candidates like Mike Pompeo, who is seen as unlikely to make a real impact.
- Susan Glasser: “Mike Pompeo is a classic example of the Trump cabinet in that he never, in any other administration, Republican or certainly Democrat, would have had the positions that he had.” [19:14]
5. The "Anger Olympics" and Tone of the Race
[21:14]
- Pompeo's Role: Not a major contender, but indicative of the "who can be angrier" dynamic—the “anger Olympics”—dominating the GOP primary discourse.
- Evan Osnos: “It’s a kind of anger Olympics, really. And he is sort of trying to be the one who is most merciless about Democrats... or about America’s opponents.” [21:14]
- China as the new enemy: Candidates are seeking to out-hawk each other, especially against China, a theme flagged by party insiders (Steve Bannon’s analysis).
6. Is the GOP Still Trump’s Party? The Cult of Personality
[23:49]
- Trump’s Enduring Base: Despite establishment hopes, Trump retains a solid “floor” of hardcore support (~28-30% of GOP voters).
- Evan Osnos: "...Trump is this permanent piece of the furniture when it comes to attitudes. There’s in effect, this kind of floor that support will never go before, basically 28 to 30% of Republican primary voters.” [24:05]
- Multi-candidate fields advantage him—same dynamics as 2016.
- The risk of a Trump third-party run is discussed, paralleling Teddy Roosevelt’s 1912 campaign which handed the election to Wilson.
7. Can the Trump Phenomenon Fade?
[27:06]
- Trump’s current campaign is described as "dull and overlooked" compared to previous cycles. The media is more restrained.
- Evan Osnos: “...the weird thing about Trump’s candidacy right now is how dull and overlooked it is... the lightning that he was able to capture the first time he ran is just exhausted now." [27:06]
- Fundraising is sluggish -- he’s raising vastly less money than in previous cycles.
- Jane Mayer: “He’s raised very little since he got into this presidential race... One Republican consultant described him as having driven a Ferrari last time, and now he's stuck running around in a lawnmower engine.” [28:23]
8. The Democrats’ Hope—and a Warning
[29:14-30:18]
- Democrats quietly cheer for Trump as the nominee ("God’s gift to Democrats"), yet the panel cautions against underestimating him (2016 déjà vu).
- Jane Mayer: “But when it comes to sort of praying for Trump again to be the front runner, all I can say is remember 2016. That's what the Democrats were hoping for then, too. So... be careful what you wish.” [30:03]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Nikki Haley's shifting stances:
Glasser: “I don’t know what to think about Nikki Haley because she changes her mind so often... She’s been one of the most fascinating case studies of what I call the dance of the enablers.” [07:00] -
On the contest’s tone:
Osnos: “It’s a kind of anger Olympics, really.” [21:14] -
On DeSantis’s appeal:
Osnos: “He’s trying to pull out this one string... I can be the fighter that Trump was without all of the baggage...” [14:28] -
On Trump’s permanent base:
Osnos: “Trump is this permanent piece of the furniture when it comes to attitudes. There’s... this kind of floor that support will never go before, basically 28–30% of Republican primary voters.” [24:05] -
On the risk of Democratic optimism:
Mayer: “Be careful what you wish.” [30:03]
Timestamps of Important Segments
| Segment Topic | Timestamp | |-----------------------------------------------|---------------| | Start of substantive conversation | 02:14 | | Why U.S. campaigns are so long | 03:38 | | Nikki Haley profile and viability | 07:00 - 10:02 | | Ron DeSantis’s rise, strengths & weaknesses | 11:58 - 16:07 | | DeSantis & media amplification | 17:25 | | On a divided field and kingmaking | 18:28 | | Pompeo and the “anger Olympics” | 21:14 | | GOP’s Trump dilemma & polling | 23:49 - 26:33 | | How cults of personality end, Trump’s weakness| 27:06 | | Trump’s fundraising struggles | 28:23 | | Democrats’ calculations on Trump | 29:14 - 30:18 | | Conclusion | 30:28 |
Episode Takeaway
The 2024 GOP primary is shaping up as a contest of personalities, populist anger, and a struggle over the very identity of the Republican Party. Trump’s hold, though somewhat diminished, remains powerful, and the party’s future may be determined less by new policies or visions for the country and more by who can channel the anger, media presence, and personal cult that characterized Trump’s rise. Meanwhile, the specter of a splintered party and Democratic overconfidence loom in the background, setting up a high-stakes, unpredictable campaign cycle.