Podcast Summary: "Bernard Avishai and John Cassidy on the Violence in Gaza"

The Political Scene | The New Yorker | August 7, 2014
Host: Jeffrey Toobin
Guests: Bernard Avishai & John Cassidy

Overview

This episode delves into the escalating violence in Gaza as of late July 2014, exploring its causes, the goals and dilemmas on both sides, and the implications for Israeli, American, and regional politics. Staff writer John Cassidy and Israel expert Bernard Avishai join Jeffrey Toobin to discuss the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, the deteriorating U.S.–Israeli relationship, divisions within Israeli politics, and the uncertain prospects for peace.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Israel’s Goals and the Reality on the Ground

• Netanyahu’s Strategic Aims:
  • Bernard Avishai highlights that Israel, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is focused on "changing the strategic equation"—destroying Hamas tunnels and restoring deterrence, rather than any realistic end to Hamas’s rule.
    • "Netanyahu's goal right now is to change the strategic equation, blow up the tunnels, reestablish, as Israeli intelligence people like to say, deterrence." (Bernard Avishai, 02:06)
• Limits of Military Action:
  • Avishai stresses that fully removing Hamas is wishful thinking, as outright occupation would be disastrous:
    • "In order to get there, you'd have to basically make Gaza a ruin and call it victory..." (Avishai, 02:43)
  • Israeli leadership is split over whether to pursue this impossible goal—some are pressuring Netanyahu to "go to the end" (02:43).

2. American-Israeli Relations

• Strained Leadership Ties:
  • John Cassidy notes a severe deterioration in Obama-Netanyahu relations, compounded by Netanyahu undermining U.S.-led peace efforts, and disregard for American calls for ceasefire:
    • "Obama goes out... publicly and calls Netanyahu... and demands an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. And in 24 hours later, Netanyahu steps up the attacks..." (Cassidy, 04:01)
• Underlying Bipartisan U.S. Support:
  • Despite White House unease, Congressional support for Israel remains unwavering:
    • "I don't think any congressman yet has come out and criticized Israel... even Bernie Sanders... just keeping quiet now." (Cassidy, 05:32)
• Blame Placed on John Kerry:
  • Avishai details how some in the Israeli government blame Secretary of State John Kerry for allegedly encouraging Hamas by including rehabilitation of Gaza in ceasefire talks (06:04–08:29).

3. Hamas’s Motives and Gaza’s Situation

• Ambiguous Objectives:
  • Avishai claims Hamas wants to exact a price for the occupation, but their end goals are contradictory—ranging from advocating for a caliphate to being open to negotiations:
    • "They're extremely ambiguous about what their own end goal is..." (Avishai, 08:37)
• Immediate Goal: Breaking the Blockade:
  • Cassidy emphasizes the devastating blockade on Gaza and Hamas's attempt to change this reality:
    • "Gaza has been... a prison camp for the last few years... I think that's going to be a big part of it." (Cassidy, 09:52)

4. Internal Israeli Politics and Prospects for Peace

• Popularity of the Offensive and Internal Dynamics:
  • Cassidy and Avishai discuss the high level of Israeli public support for the operation, driven by security fears and a rightward political shift:
    • "...opinion polls say 80, 90% are supporting Israel for continuing the operation." (Cassidy, 11:02)
• The ‘Mowing the Grass’ Metaphor:
  • Avishai uses this phrase to describe the Sisyphean cycle of periodic conflict and limited military objectives:
    • "...sometimes you mow the lawn and you hit some rocks that kind of bend your blades." (Avishai, 12:45)
• Growing Public Doubts:
  • Avishai predicts that, as casualties mount without strategic success, public questioning in Israel will rise:
    • "For something that isn't a clear strategic goal is going to exact a price from Netanyahu in the end." (Avishai, 12:45)

5. Potential Shifts in U.S. Policy

• Will Obama Intervene Personally?
  • Cassidy suggests meaningful change in the U.S. approach would require direct presidential involvement, rather than delegating to the Secretary of State:
    • "...the only time anything really happens is if an American president... puts his own credibility on the line..." (Cassidy, 14:46)
• The ‘Demilitarization for Opening Gaza’ Proposal:
  • Avishai proposes that international, possibly UN or NATO, involvement in Gaza's demilitarization—traded for opening the blockade—could create the opening for renewed peace negotiations:
    • "Once you have an American administration enforcing something like... disengagement of forces... that really would come out of the negotiations..." (Avishai, 15:45)
  • He admits this would be a radical and difficult shift, given Israeli resistance to international troops on the ground (17:27–17:35).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Israeli objectives:

  • "All political analysis here is equal parts information, dread and wishful thinking."
    (Bernard Avishai, 02:06)

• On U.S.–Israeli relations:

  • "[The White House] seem powerless... they do. Obama finally... demands an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. And 24 hours later, Netanyahu steps up the attacks..."
    (John Cassidy, 04:01)

• On the Gaza blockade:

  • "Gaza has been... a prison camp for the last few years... Israelis blockade the coming and going of goods as a very severe economic blockade."
    (John Cassidy, 09:52)

• On internal debates in Israel:

  • "For them... taking civilian casualties, awful as that is, is kind of force. But... taking 50 deaths, you know, these are our kids... for something that isn't a clear strategic goal is going to exact a price from Netanyahu in the end."
    (Bernard Avishai, 12:45)

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Topic | |---------------|--------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:14 | Introduction & Context | | 02:06 | Israel’s goals & limits of military objectives | | 03:49 | Impact on U.S.–Israeli relations | | 05:32 | Bipartisan support for Israel in U.S. Congress | | 06:04 | Israeli government’s criticism of John Kerry | | 08:29 | Hamas’s objectives & ambiguity | | 09:52 | Gaza blockade’s humanitarian and political implications | | 11:02 | Internal Israeli politics and sustained support | | 12:45 | ‘Mowing the grass,’ casualties, and potential public backlash| | 14:46 | Prospects for a shift in U.S. policy, need for presidential engagement | | 15:45 | Demilitarization and international involvement as a peace opportunity| | 17:27 | Obstacles to international presence in Gaza |

Summary Tone

The episode is sober, informed, and at times deeply pessimistic about the prospects for near-term resolution but does not shy away from exploring possible openings for longer-term change. The language is analytical yet accessible, with frequent reminders of the emotional and political stakes for all sides.

Concluding Thoughts

The conversation provides critical insight into how local politics, military realities, and international relations shape the Gaza conflict’s trajectory. Both guests ultimately suggest that absent a major new initiative—likely requiring direct U.S. presidential engagement—little fundamental change is likely. However, the concept of “demilitarization for access” and greater international involvement offers a faint glimmer of hope for moving beyond the cycles of violence.