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The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Bernard Avishai and John Cassidy on the violence in Gaza.
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Bernard Avishai and John Cassidy on the violence in Gaza.
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- [00:00]
Asma Khalid
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- [01:14]
Jeffrey Toobin
This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about politics. It's Thursday, July 31st. I'm Jeffrey Toobin, in this week for Dorothy Wickenden. On Wednesday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Israelis they have to be prepared for a prolonged army operation in Gaza. Over 1300 Palestinians and at least 59 Israelis have been killed so far, and there's no end to the violence in sight. To talk about it, I'm joined by John Cassidy, staff writer, and by Bernard Avishai, the author of the Tragedy of Zionism and the Hebrew Republic. He also blogs about Israel for the New Yorker's website. Bernie, let me start with you. What is the goal here for Israel? What do they hope to accomplish?
- [02:07]
Bernard Avishai
Well, I guess the first thing one has to say is that all political analysis here is equal parts information, dread and wishful thinking. But I think that Netanyahu's goal right now is to change the strategic equation, blow up the tunnels, reestablish, as Israeli intelligence people like to say, deterrence, which is another way of saying they understand they can't defeat us. They understand that we call the shots.
- [02:38]
Jeffrey Toobin
Is part of the goal to somehow force Hamas from power? And is there any way that's even possible?
- [02:44]
Bernard Avishai
That's the part of this that's wishful thinking. And it also creates a split within the Israeli government itself. Right now, there are people in the Israeli government who are doing to Netanyahu what Netanyahu did to Olmert in 2009, which is always to say, we've got to go to the end. The purpose of this is to go to the end. We can't justify our sacrifices if all we do is recreate the conditions that started this all over again. So he's caught in this trap where he's being told that, yes, you have to go to the end, but the truth is, I think he knows he can't. It would be too difficult. It would mean reoccupying a place like Fallujah and facing booby traps on every corner. And in order to get there, you'd have to basically make Gaza a ruin and call it victory, you know, which CNN and Al Jazeera would be reporting. And that has all kinds of tripwires across the Middle East. So it's very, very difficult to see how you get anything like the. The removal of Hamas.
- [03:50]
Jeffrey Toobin
John, you've written this week about the American government's reaction to what's gone on in Gaza. How has this operation affected American Israeli relations?
- [04:02]
John Cassidy
Well, it's clearly made them worse. It's not clear to what extent it's made them worse. I mean, the context of this is, of course, that relationship between President Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu had already more or less broken down. The famous incident in which Obama was heard criticizing Netanyahu on a mic that he didn't realize was there then. Netanyahu's more or less straightforward torpedoing of John Kerry's peace initiative earlier this year, you know, created a bad context. And now I think the administration just sees this as a terrible, you know, embarrassment to them. I mean, they do. They seem powerless. Obama goes out, you know, finally, after not saying very much for a couple of weeks, does come out publicly and calls Netanyahu on Sunday and demands an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. And in 24 hours later, Netanyahu steps up the attacks, you know, and blows up power stations and things. So on that level, I think it is a big breach. Now, how far does it go? You know, the Israelis just asked the Americans yesterday if they could resupply, which means can they use more American shells and more American ordinance to fire at Hamas. And Americans said yes. So the underlying defense treaty is still there, or the defense agreement. I'm sure America is sharing intelligence, as it always does. You know, Obama formally still supports Israel's right to defend itself, but I think there is great unease within the administration about what's happening.
- [05:25]
Jeffrey Toobin
Yet it seems like support for Israel in Congress is bipartisan and very strong.
- [05:33]
John Cassidy
Yeah, I mean, that is the amazing thing. I mean, I don't think any congressman yet has come out and criticized Israel. Even people like Bernie Sanders, who you might expect to at least say that it's going a bit too far. Or what about all the civilian deaths are just keeping quiet now. You know, you can interpret that in two ways. Number one, you could say, well, maybe they genuinely believe that Israel shouldn't just stand by while terrorist organization fires rockets into Israel. Or on the other hand, it's the sort of old idea that if you're an American politician, it's just not worth making the Israeli lobby irate. I think it's a bit of both.
- [06:05]
Bernard Avishai
There is one little curious wrinkle in relations between Kerry and the Israeli government. The Israeli government is really blaming Kerry for the fact that all of this has escalated. I mean, it's a strange kind of argument they're making.
- [06:21]
Jeffrey Toobin
Can you spell that out? Because it's certainly not obvious. How would all this be John Kerry's fault?
- [06:27]
Bernard Avishai
Well, on July 14, President Sisi of Egypt made a proposal for an unconditional ceasefire, which Netanyahu liked, worked for him, and he was prepared to accept it. The Hamas at that moment said, no way. We're not going to stop unless we have some kind of guarantee that Gaza will be rehabilitated, Kerry stepped in. After a week of exchanges of fire, in which Netanyahu had started a ground operation and civilian casualties were mounting to 1000, and finally called a meeting in Paris with supporters of Hamas, that is the Turkish government, and the government of Qatar. And the proposed ceasefire that came out of that meeting included talk about rehabilitating Gaza, paying civil servants, using Qatar money to build and open the crossings, and so on. And that sounded to the Israeli government as if, in effect, Kerry was siding with Hamas, and then blamed Kerry for encouraging Hamas, that if only he had used his leverage on Qatar to pressure Hamas rather than to adopt the language of rehabilitation, presumably Hamas would have cracked and things would have gone to a ceasefire then and there. I think this is a very flimsy argument, frankly. It's based on a very flimsy understanding of the psychology on the Other side, you could just as easily make the case that Hamas was in no position and no frame of mind to compromise on this issue after they had lost so many people on their own side. And so you have this tension, this friction between the Israeli government and Kerry over Kerry being sort of naive, which screwed up Israeli brinkmanship.
- [08:29]
Jeffrey Toobin
Talk a bit about Hamas. What were they trying to accomplish by sending the missiles when they did?
- [08:37]
Bernard Avishai
I think their view is that anything they can do to exact a price for the occupation is justified. They say that they're defending the Palestinian people against the forces of occupation. I think that's in a way translated into we're going to bring the Israelis down into the mud with us. If we can make the Israelis hurt, we can finally get them to. And that's where. Who knows how to finish that sentence? Because I'm not really sure they have a way of finishing the sentence. On the one hand, they say, you know, they want a caliphate that will be Sharia law and join with a kind of regional caliphate. On the other hand, they're saying that they would accept Abbas negotiation strategy with Israel and that if there's a negotiated agreement along the 67 border, which is put to a national referendum in Palestine, that they would accept it. So they're extremely ambiguous about what their own end goal is and their means are not clearly consistent with the ends of peaceful coexistence.
- [09:52]
John Cassidy
I think just going to on that, Jeff. I mean, I think they've got a more immediate goal as well, though. I mean, they're trying to break the blockade here. I mean, I think what a lot of Americans and outsiders don't realize is the extent to which, you know, Gaza has been sort of a bit of a loaded phrase, but a prison camp for the last few years. I mean, you can't go in and out. The Israelis blockade the coming and going of goods as a very severe economic blockade. The Egyptians have closed that border. So part of what Hamas is doing is trying to get Egypt to change its policies. They saw an opportunity here to try and break the blockade. And if you see it in response to all these ceasefire proposals, that's what they say. They say we won't agree to stop firing missiles until there's some change on that. And Israel is sort of saying it the other way around. You know, if you stop missiles, maybe then we'll talk about relaxing the blockade. But I think that's going to be whatever the end game is, I think that's going to be a big part of it.
- [10:45]
Jeffrey Toobin
John, look forward for us for A minute. Where do you see this going? Bernie thinks no occupation. I don't think anyone really thinks that Israel is going to move its troops back into Gaza. But how or when does this particular chapter end?
- [11:03]
John Cassidy
Yeah, I mean, I should start by saying I really have no idea. But I think a lot of it just depends on the internal politics of Israel. Well, about a week ago, when the first sort of ceasefire negotiation started, I sort of thought that maybe the Israelis at that point would take Kerry's intervention as a sort of excuse. They'd already destroyed quite a lot of tunnels. The civilian count was mounting, the international criticism was mounting. It was pretty clear if they kept going, they would, you know, get really crucified on the world sort of media stage, which is what has happened now. But I think largely because of internal politics, Netanyahu didn't take that opportunity. Seems to be almost universal support, not almost universal, but the opinion polls say 80, 90% are supporting Israel for continuing the operation. I mean, I think we often underestimate the extent to which sort of internal Israeli politics has changed. And Tom Friedman wrote a column a few months ago, I remember saying, this is not your grandfather's Israel. You know, the dynamic and the sort of initiative is with the, the sort of irreconcilable than the ride over there. And Netanyahu, far from worrying about sort of international criticism, is more worried about being outflanked on the right. I think so at this stage, I would imagine it'll go on for another week or two, but I wouldn't like to say for sure.
- [12:20]
Jeffrey Toobin
Bernie, here's a sort of simple minded question, but one of the metaphors you often hear about this operation about Israel and Gaza is this is mowing the grass, this is imposing a penalty on Hamas, recognizing that Hamas will keep doing what it's doing. Do you think, for example, that when this does end, whenever it ends, Hamas will just start building the tunnels again?
- [12:46]
Bernard Avishai
I think it's sinking in, in Israel that sometimes you mow the lawn and you hit some rocks that kind of bend your blades. And in the back of Israelis minds all along, I think was this facile idea that, well, you know, we can always retake Gaza if we have to. I think it's starting to sink in that that's actually not on and that's going to have political penalties. Right now the war is extremely popular. And by popular I don't mean that people have a kind of war fever. I think one of the things we don't understand about Israel in the west is that for them, you know, taking civilian casualties, awful as that is, is kind of force. But putting their sons in harm's way and taking 50 deaths, you know, these are our kids. These are people we're taking out of their books and their hookups and their trips to Nepal. And we're saying, you know, you have to defend us right now. And putting them in harm's way for something that isn't a clear strategic goal is going to exact a price from Netanyahu in the end. And people are going to start asking questions about why did you take our kids and have this war? And you didn't succeed at anything, you didn't create anything, why did you put our kids in troop carriers that aren't sufficiently armored? I mean, that's the kind of thing Israelis carpet carry. But they're going to start carping at each other pretty soon. I think that Netanyahu will ride this for a while, but he's already lost the right wing of the Likud, ironically. So it's going to be very interesting to see what political realignment comes out of this.
- [14:36]
Jeffrey Toobin
John, before we wrap up, do you see any prospect for any significant shift in American policy towards Israel as a result of this operation?
- [14:47]
John Cassidy
That's a very good question, Jeff. I think that ultimately will come down to Obama, who has been the sort of offstage character in all this. I mean, up until now, throughout his administration, he's sort of shied away from the Arab Israeli conflict, maybe thinking that, you know, it just wasn't worth spending so much political capital there because it was unsolvable. He's never really explained, but he clearly has just sort of. In the first term, he didn't do anything much at all. In the second term, he sort of shunted it onto John Kerry's plate. I think history shows that the only time anything really happens is if an American president, not the Secretary of State, puts his own credibility on the line and gets involved. And I think that's the big question for Obama now. When this eventually shakes down, is he willing to get involved personally and put his own credibility on the line, or. Or will he just continue to make the odd speech, but basically not get involved and not make it a sort of personal mission for himself.
- [15:39]
Jeffrey Toobin
Bernie, what do you think about that American policy towards Israel? You see any changes on the horizon?
- [15:45]
Bernard Avishai
Well, I think the one interesting and perhaps hopeful idea is that if you start to talk about demilitarizing Gaza and demilitarizing it with some kind of quid pro quo for opening up the place to Trade, et cetera. You're, in effect, talking about internationalizing it. You're talking about troops on the ground. You're talking maybe about NATO forces or UN forces monitoring, standing on the ground and making something new happen. Once you have that and you have an American administration enforcing something like, what was it, you know, a disengagement of forces that Kissinger offered Israel and Egypt back in the 70s. Once you have that kind of disengagement of forces and you have American prestige and force on the ground, it does provide a kind of opening, I think, for something I've been longing for, which is that Kerry would then use it as an occasion to articulate a plan for peace that the international community can rally to. A plan for peace that really would come out of the negotiations that he presided over. Once you have that, I think we begin to have a political process that's much more hopeful. So keep your eye on this word demilitarization and see what the ceasefire says. If we start to have that kind of promise, you start to have international intervention, which is, I think, long overdue.
- [17:28]
John Cassidy
Really. Bernie, do you think Netanyahu is going to allow UN troops in Gaza? I mean, hasn't he said all along that there won't be any international troops anywhere near?
- [17:36]
Bernard Avishai
No, I think he will not want troops and Gaza. But the question is, can he just call the shots? I mean, now we're going back to this kind of mowing the lawn thing. If Israel thinks that it can simply tolerate this as a kind of cyclical thing, I think this war is proving that mistake. But I said before, there's a certain amount of dread and wishful thinking in the analysis.
- [18:02]
Jeffrey Toobin
I think we have to leave it there. And I will say thank you to both of you. John Cassidy is a staff writer who blogs frequently for the New Yorker's website. Bernard Avishai is a visiting professor of government at Dartmouth and also a frequent blogger on the New Yorker website. This has been the political scene from the New Yorker. I'm Jeffrey Toobin.
- [18:21]
Bernard Avishai
You can subscribe to this podcast and other free New Yorker podcasts in the itunes store. The weekly audio edition of the magazine is available@Audible.com New Yorker subscribers can access the digital edition for tablets and phones at no extra charge from the App Store or from Google Play.
- [18:41]
Asma Khalid
America is changing, and so is the world.
- [18:46]
John Cassidy
But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.
- [18:54]
Asma Khalid
I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.
- [18:56]
John Cassidy
Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global story.
- [19:00]
Asma Khalid
Every weekday, we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.
- [19:06]
John Cassidy
Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts from.
- [19:14]
Bernard Avishai
PRX.