Can Trump Make Peace with Kim Jong-Un?

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Can Trump Make Peace with Kim Jong-Un?
Date: March 9, 2018
Host: Dorothy Wickenden (Executive Editor, The New Yorker)
Guest: Robin Wright (Contributing Writer, The New Yorker)
(Non-content segments, advertisements, and cross-promos omitted)

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Episode Overview

This episode analyzes President Trump’s surprising announcement to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un—a move that startled even his own advisors. Host Dorothy Wickenden and guest Robin Wright explore the context and global repercussions of Trump’s ad hoc style of foreign policy, focusing on shifting alliances, the state of autocracy versus democracy, deepening Russia-Iran ties, and prospects for peace and denuclearization in Korea. The conversation is laced with skepticism, historic perspective, and sharp commentary on the complexities of diplomacy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Shock Announcement and Its Context

• Trump's abrupt acceptance of a meeting with Kim Jong-Un is seen as another example of his unpredictable approach to foreign policy.
• The announcement “served one of its immediate goals of distracting everyone from a blizzard of headlines” surrounding the Mueller investigation, steel and aluminum tariffs, and lawsuits. (01:16)

“The announcement is completely in keeping with Trump’s ad hoc foreign policy, especially when it comes to dealing with autocratic regimes.”
— Dorothy Wickenden (01:16)

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2. Erosion of U.S. Alliances and the Rise of New Partnerships

• Severed U.S.-Iran ties have pushed Iran into closer partnership with Russia, disrupting traditional balances in the Middle East.
• Robin Wright describes a notable shift:
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s comments in Moscow about fostering a “new paradigm” in the Persian Gulf, facilitated by Russian involvement. (03:40)
  • Noteworthy that a prior U.S.-Iran backchannel is now “on the qt.”
  • “The U.S…. has pushed us into the arms of the Russians,” quoting an Iranian analyst. (04:06)

“What’s happened instead as President Trump has opted to move away from the Iran nuclear deal, is that the Iranians have moved very close to the Russians.... The United States, whether intentionally or unintentionally, has pushed us into the arms of the Russians.”
— Robin Wright (04:06)

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3. The Syria War and the U.S. Absence

• Assad’s regime, propped up by Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, now controls most of Syria—defying earlier Western expectations. (06:59)
• The U.S. focus has narrowed to fighting ISIS, ceding broader influence to Moscow and Tehran over Syria's fate.
• Putin’s “victory declaration” is seen as solidifying autocratic control, with little U.S. resistance. (08:14)

“Because the US hasn’t been pushing back… by default the Russians and the Iranians are controlling the destiny of Syria.”
— Robin Wright (06:59)

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4. America’s Retreat and the Global Autocracy Trend

• Trump’s policy is described as “ad hoc and almost whimsical,” undermining alliances like the EU and NATO, walking away from TPP, and renegotiating NAFTA. (11:15)
• Notably, a global downturn in democracy is observed—more than a third of countries declining in civil rights (Freedom House, 2017) (10:42).
• The resulting vacuum enables autocrats to grow entrenched, challenging the momentum of liberal democracy post-Cold War.

“Some of the autocrats, have become so entrenched that the wave of freedom and the belief that liberal ideas of democracy were prevailing worldwide have now been totally put in doubt.”
— Robin Wright (11:15)

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5. Trump’s Approach to Diplomacy and North Korea

• Confusion reigns among allies and adversaries: "Does Tillerson speak for the government? Does Kushner? And then, you know, add to that the President's mercurial temperament…" (12:58)
• Skepticism abounds about Kim Jong-Un’s willingness to denuclearize and Trump’s capacity to negotiate such a deal.
• Wright draws on her firsthand visit to North Korea during prior talks, highlighting immense complexities:
  • The Iran deal took two years and produced a 159-page agreement, even though Iran lacked a weapon at the time.
  • North Korea possesses at least 20 nuclear weapons and advanced missiles.
  • Hasty, leader-to-leader diplomacy risks U.S. leverage and preparation. (13:50)

“The president has everything to lose. Kim Jong Un has everything to gain. He's got the most powerful leader in the world traveling to meet the world's most isolated man.”
— Robin Wright (13:50)

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6. Trump’s Historical Aspirations as a Nuclear Negotiator

• Trump’s self-image as a nuclear dealmaker dates to the late ‘80s:
  • He once lobbied to be Reagan’s START negotiator.
  • His negotiation tactic involved bluster: “I would have stood up and shouted, fuck you and walked out.” (16:17)
  • Lacked understanding of the issues, as evidenced when he had to ask aides about the START treaty post-inauguration (15:59)

“He thought he had the skills to make a deal, but he didn’t really know the issue. And I think that’s what people are afraid of this time around.”
— Robin Wright (16:17)

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Memorable Quotes

• “The alliances… playing out in the Middle East has shifted dramatically, too.”
  — Robin Wright (04:06)

• “This is one of the most brutal, ruthless leaders anywhere in the world, responsible for the deaths of up to half a million people… creating one of the greatest humanitarian crises since World War II.”
  — Robin Wright on Assad (06:59)

• “He has challenged the basic foundations and alliances that have prevailed since the end of the Second World War…”
  — Robin Wright (11:15)

• “At the end of the day, they're supposed to talk about denuclearization… but it can be interpreted in a lot of different ways.”
  — Robin Wright (13:50)

• “The START negotiations, one of the most sophisticated set of negotiations ever conducted, took several years and did eventually lead to a nuclear agreement…”
  — Robin Wright (16:17)

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Important Timestamps

• Trump’s Threat to North Korea, UN Speech Recap: 01:16
• U.S.-Iran-Russia Realignment: 04:06
• Iran and Russia’s Role in Syria: 06:59
• Freedom House Democracy Decline, Autocracy Trend: 10:42
• Confusion in Trump’s Foreign Policy Team: 12:58
• Skepticism on Korean Denuclearization Talks: 13:50
• Trump’s 1989 Nuclear Negotiator Story: 15:59

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Conclusion

The episode delivers a sharply critical, deeply informed perspective on Trump’s foreign policy and its potential consequences—especially in the context of the announced summit with Kim Jong-Un. The hosts illuminate a picture of fraying alliances, resurgent autocracy, dangerous improvisation, and the gravity of complex nuclear diplomacy, raising essential questions about U.S. credibility and world order.

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For more coverage, visit newyorker.com.

Transcript

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about politics. It's Friday, March 9th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. Last August, President Trump threatened North Korea with fire and fury like the world has never seen. In September, in his first speech before the UN he threatened to totally destroy the country and ridiculed Kim Jong Un as rocket man. Yesterday, the White House announced, to the surprise of most of Trump's advisers, that he has agreed to meet with Kim Jong Un within the next few months. The news served one of its immediate goals of distracting everyone from a blizzard of headlines about developments in Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation, the tariffs Trump is imposing on steel and aluminum imports, and the lawsuit filed against him by a pornographic film star. But the announcement is completely in keeping with Trump's ad hoc foreign policy, especially when it comes to dealing with autocratic regimes. Last month, at the munich Security Conference, HR McMaster, the US national security adviser, said that the evidence of Russia meddling in the election was incontrovertible, and he talked about the threats posed by North Korea and those in the Middle East.

[Unnamed Narrator]

We know that Syria and North Korea are not the only rogue states developing, using, spreading dangerous weapons. Now is the time to address serious flaws in the Iran deal and counter Iran's destabilizing activities, including its development and proliferation of missiles and its support for terrorist proxies and militias that fuel destructive conflicts across the greater Middle East.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Robyn Wright joins me to discuss how the administration's slapdash foreign policy undermines American influence in the world. Robyn, welcome.

[Robin Wright]

Always great to be with you, Dorothy.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Let's start with the broader picture which inevitably takes us back to Russia. Last month you were in Moscow and Iran's foreign minister, Javad Zarif met with his Russia counterpart, Sergei Lavrov. Zarif had this to say about Iran's commitment to stronger diplomatic ties with the Kremlin.

[Javad Zarif]

I believe Russia has a sober strategic perspective towards our region. And I believe using the increasing influence of Russia in the region, it can play a fundamental role in making it possible for this new paradigm to emerge in, at least to be modest in the Persian Gulf region.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

What did he mean about a new paradigm?

[Robin Wright]

One of the most striking things to happen during the Trump administration has been this dramatic shift that has led to a closing off of relations between the United States and Iran. What's happened instead as President Trump has opted to move away from the Iran nuclear deal, is that the Iranians have moved very close to the Russians. And what was really striking to me sitting in Moscow in an audience where the Russian and Iranian foreign ministers were given keynote address, was the fact that just a few days earlier, Sarif had met with former Secretary of State John Kerry. That was a meeting with the Americans that was now on the qt. And these are two men that for two years talked with each other more openly and often than they talked with any other foreign leader. And now the situation has so dramatically changed that not only the nuclear deal is at stake, but the alliances, the configuration of partners playing out in the Middle east has shifted dramatically, too. And as one Iranian analyst who is also in the audience said to me later, the United States, whether intentionally or unintentionally, has pushed us into the arms of the Russians. And of course, Russians and Iranians have a long antagonistic history with the Russians having invaded and occupied parts of Iran and having taken parts of Iranian territory. So that was not necessarily a natural alliance to begin with, and now it is.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

So what are exactly Russia and Iran's shared interests here?

[Robin Wright]

Well, Russia and Iran, first of all are standing up together against US Influence in the Middle East. And that's what we were trying to prevent. We were trying to wean Iran away from kind of its militant positions, its support of Syria. We wanted to make it a player in solving, not exacerbating, the horrendous military and humanitarian situation in Syria, now marking its seventh year of war. And they are becoming close partners when it's looking at what are their interests, not only in the Middle east, but also in South Asia, which Iran also borders, and the Caucasus, Central Asia. So this is an important rearrangement and one of the real geostrategic shifts since President Trump took office.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

So I do want to talk about Syria, because in the endless news coming out of the White House, some of these bigger issues tend to be almost overlooked. And there's been just horrendous news from Syria in recent weeks. I wonder if you could talk about Russia and Iran and the role that they are playing in determining the outcome of the war in Syria.

[Robin Wright]

Iran and the Russians have been very involved since 2015 in helping President Assad re exert his control of the country. And over the past year, they have helped him knit together large patches of territory. So Assad has re exerted control over the majority of the territory, and that means he's around to stay. And this is one of the most brutal, ruthless leaders anywhere in the world, responsible for the deaths of up to half a million people, the displacement of over half the population, whether it's inside the country or fleeing to neighboring countries, creating one of the greatest humanitarian crises since World War II. Again, because the US hasn't been pushing back, we've only been focused on the ISIS element of the conflict inside Syria. We haven't wanted to get involved in taking on Assad again by default. This has left the Russians and the Iranians controlling the destiny of Syria.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

What did Putin mean? Several months ago, he declared victory in Syria. But as we've just been discussing, the war has been escalating since. What did Putin mean and what's happening there?

[Robin Wright]

Well, I think the Russians, backed by the Iranians and their Hezbollah allies from Lebanon, believe that they have now ensured that Assad will stay in power. And there was, you know, this longstanding belief that Assad could not survive this extraordinary campaign where you had the west and some of the rich Gulf countries lined up against him. And now the reality is that Assad will be around. And the Trump administration has even indicated that it's willing to let Assad stay until at least his presidential term ends. And that's not until 2021, because the challenge of holding an election would be so difficult. And the reality is that there are very few opposition figures who've emerged as a viable alternative.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And what about Trump's famous attack on Obama during the campaign for drawing the red line in Syria and then not acting? You said at the time that he should have crossed the red line because horrible acts against humanity took place, including gas. And now it seems that there are more attacks taking place, including gas.

[Robin Wright]

Well, President Trump has escalated the rules of engagement of American troops on the ground, but that really is just to deal with the ISIS component. And that has been largely successful in pushing back ISIS into small corners along the Iraq Syria border. But the truth is that the Trump administration has not taken but one single action for the use of chemical weapons very early in the administration by bombing a Syrian airfield.

[Katie Drummond]

I'm Katie Drummond. I'm Wired's global editorial director. I'm Michael Kollory, Wired's director of consumer, Tech and culture.

[Robin Wright]

And I'm Lauren Good. I'm a senior correspondent at Wired. And our show, Uncanny Valley, is about the people, power, and influence of Silicon Valley.

[Katie Drummond]

And right now, Silicon Valley and Washington have never been more intertwined. So each week, we get together to talk about a big story, often at the intersection of tech and politics. Right. So whether we're talking about Trump, Coin, Doge, or Elon Musk, we will always explain how these Silicon Valley forces are affecting Washington and how they affect you. Make sure you're following Uncanny Valley in your podcast app of choice so you don't miss an episode.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

All of this is symptomatic of a worldwide trend, and everyone's talking about this now. After the Cold War, it seemed that totalitarianism was a thing of the past, and it had been defeated by the forces of democracy. But there are a number of new books out, and Freedom House recently reported that more than a third of the world's total number of countries saw declines in political rights and civil liberties in 2017. The effect of what Trump is doing seems to be to further that rather than curtail that.

[Robin Wright]

Well, President Trump, his allies, will say his foreign policy is unconventional but imaginative. His critics will say it's ad hoc and almost whimsical. And the reality is that he has challenged the basic foundations and alliances that have prevailed since the end of the Second World War, whether it's supporting Brexit and encouraging and saying other countries may want to leave, too. And Europe, of course, was decreed. European Union was the creation of the post Cold War world to prevent Europe from fighting each other. He challenged NATO and challenged whether it was worthy of US Support or was doing its duty. He walked away from the Trans Pacific Partnership, which was the most important trade relationship brokered, arguably ever largest number of territory. He's now trying to renegotiate nafta. So he's also been very crude in his perspective on the world when he referred to countries in Africa as shithole countries. You know, this is a man who walked away from not only certain kinds of relationships or certain kinds of goals, but has undermined the alliances and foundations that have created a rules based order. And one thing that I keep hearing when talking to diplomats who've long served in senior position is the fact that there is a real vacuum and that as a result, some of the emperors, as you noted, some of the autocrats, have become so entrenched that the wave of freedom and the belief that liberal ideas of democracy were prevailing worldwide have now been totally put in doubt.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

In one of your recent pieces, you quoted a Middle east expert who talked about how utterly confused people around the world are. You know, does Tillerson speak for the government? Our government does. Kushner. And then, you know, add to that the President's mercurial temperament and his tendency to shift positions almost day by day in some cases. That brings us back to this moment with Kim Jong Un and his overture to Trump. We know that Trump has a very peculiar fondness for some of the most autocratic leaders in the world. But how plausible is it that this totalitarian, who killed his half brother with a nerve agent and who sees his nuclear weapons program as key to his nation's security is. Is willing suddenly to give up his bombs and missiles with Donald Trump.

[Robin Wright]

I think that any of us who know North Korea are asking the same question. I actually went to North Korea on the only trip made by a senior US official when Madeleine Albright went in 2000 to try to broker a deal with Kim Jong Il that would have led to a trip by President Clinton, and that would have been the first meeting between a North Korean and American heads of state. At the end of the day, they're supposed to talk about denuclearization. Well, it sounds simple. That means getting rid of the nuclear weapons. But it can be interpreted in a lot of different ways. The problem with this kind of hasty approach to diplomacy is that there's no time to invest in detailing what that means. We're talking about very complicated arrangements. It's not just tearing down facilities, surrendering bombs or long range missiles. You know, the Iran deal was 159 pages, took two years. Hundreds of US diplomats, intelligence officials, nuclear physicists, and Iran didn't even have the bomb or a ballistic missile. And what we're talking about is a country now that has at least 20 nuclear weapons, has a hydrogen bomb as well, has dozens of ballistic missiles and some capable of hitting the United States. And there are a lot of skeptics in Washington about whether this would ever work under any circumstances, and most of all whether it will work given the current format. President Trump is very quickly, you know, leaving Washington, giving credibility to Kim Jong Un, which is, you know, the president has everything to lose. Kim Jong Un has everything to gain. He's got the most powerful leader in the world traveling to meet the world's most isolated man. This is a very strange arrangement.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Robin Trump actually had early aspirations to be a negotiator on nuclear weapons. I think it was back in 1989. Could you tell us about that?

[Robin Wright]

Well, it's an extraordinary story. This was at the time that his book the Art of the Deal was a bestseller. And Donald Trump lobbied very hard with the administration of George H.W. bush to be the negotiator with the Soviet Union to deal with its nuclear arsenal. What became the START talks. And the administration instead gave the job to Richard Burt, who was an ambassador to West Germany, a long standing expert on political and military affairs. And the two men happened to be at a society wedding in New York shortly after the appointment. And as I was told, the Donald Trump then walked up to Richard Byrd and said, well, let me tell you what I would have done if I'd been appointed. I would have gotten the Soviets in the conference room. I would have made sure they were all comfortable. And then I would have stood up and shouted, fuck you and walked out. And what's so striking about that is that the START negotiations, one of the most sophisticated set of negotiations ever conducted, took several years and did eventually lead to a nuclear agreement between Washington and Moscow. Shortly after his inauguration, Vladimir Putin offered to extend the START agreement for another five years. And Trump had to ask his aides about the START agreement. It was a reflection of the fact that he thought he had the skills to make a deal, but he didn't really know the issue. And I think that's what people are afraid of. This time around.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

We're going to end there, but I'm going to ask you to come back in a couple of months, Robin, to talk about this again.

[Robin Wright]

I look forward to it, Dorothy.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Robin Wright is a contributing writer for the New Yorker and the author of Rock the Rage and Rebellion across the Islamic World. This has been the political scene from the New Yorker. You can subscribe to this and other New York podcasts by searching for the New Yorker in your podcast app and find more political analysis and commentary on new yorker.com Feel free to rate and review the political scene on Apple Podcasts. This podcast is produced by Alex Barron and Hannah Wilentz. For newyorker.com I'm Dorothy Wickenden.

[Robin Wright]

America is changing and so is the world. But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere. I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story.

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Every weekday, we'll bring you a story.

[Robin Wright]

From this intersection where the world and America meet. Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts from. PRX.