The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Can Trump Survive?

Date: May 12, 2017
Host: Dorothy Wickenden (Executive Editor, The New Yorker)
Guest: Evan Osnos (Staff Writer, The New Yorker)

Overview

This episode examines the political and legal fallout of President Donald Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey, who was leading an investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia. Dorothy Wickenden and Evan Osnos discuss the unfolding crisis inside the White House, questions of presidential integrity, obstruction of justice, Republican responses, and the larger implications for Trump's presidency, including the specter of impeachment and the 25th Amendment.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Firing of James Comey and Shifting White House Explanations

• White House Narrative Changes

  • Initially, the administration blamed Comey’s firing on recommendations from the Attorney General and Deputy Attorney General. Trump later contradicted his aides, linking his decision to dissatisfaction with the Russia investigation (02:24–03:55).
  • Quote:
    “He [Trump] said, when I decided to just do it, I said to myself, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story.”
    —Evan Osnos, quoting Trump (03:33)

• Credibility Crisis

  • The abrupt contradiction between Trump and his spokespeople, including Vice President Pence, has led to what Osnos describes as a "crisis of credibility" for the administration (04:37).
  • Trump undermined his own press team's validity through tweets asserting they shouldn’t be expected to have accurate information about his actions (04:37–05:11).

2. Legal and Political Risks: Obstruction of Justice?

• Comey Firing as a Legal Concern

  • Potential case for obstruction of justice discussed, with references to Nixon and differing expert opinions (Alan Dershowitz vs. Larry Tribe). Obstruction doesn’t require just illegal acts, but also actions to impede fair adjudication (05:54–07:11).
  • Quote:
    “It can also be this much larger category in which you are trying to impede the fair adjudication of a matter of public interest. And that, after all, was the first article of impeachment against Richard Nixon.”
    —Evan Osnos (06:41)

• Trump’s Tweet Threatening Comey (“Tapes”)

  • Seen by Osnos as legally significant, possibly amounting to a threat against a likely witness (05:11–05:19).

3. The Role of Attorney General Jeff Sessions

• Sessions’ Recusal Questioned
  • Sessions had publicly recused himself from the Russia investigation after undisclosed meetings with the Russian ambassador but was reportedly involved in Comey’s firing (07:11–09:03).
  • Osnos suggests further scrutiny is likely, especially if Democrats gain control in Congress.

4. Trump’s Claim of Not Being Investigated

• Three "Assurances" from Comey
  • Trump referenced being told on three occasions he wasn’t under investigation. Osnos notes it’s ambiguous and underlines the problematic nature of the President seeking such reassurances from the FBI Director (09:03–10:23).

5. Pattern of Firing Officials Investigating Russia Links

• Notable Dismissals
  • Beyond Comey, Acting Attorney General Sally Yates and US Attorney Preet Bharara—both investigating Trump associates’ Russia ties—were fired (10:23–11:57).
  • Quote:
    “There is a pattern here. And now the question will become whether or not those actions, in and of themselves, the firing of these three constitutes an offense of its own.”
    —Evan Osnos (11:38)

6. Impeachment and the 25th Amendment: How Close Are We?

• Impeachment as a Real Possibility

  • Osnos notes that Trump's unpopularity and the growing number of investigations have increased speculation about impeachment (12:18–14:23).
  • The Cook Political Report recalculated the odds of Democrats regaining the House at 50%, increasing pressure on Republicans to distance themselves from Trump (13:37–14:23).

• Republican Pressure & Independent Investigations

  • Growing pressure for independent investigations: select committee or special prosecutor (15:08–16:16).
  • Public opinion seen as key to shaping Congressional Republicans’ stances.

• Historical Lessons from Nixon & Clinton

  • Maintaining public support is crucial during scandals—something Clinton’s team grasped but Nixon’s did not. Clinton’s approval rose during impeachment due to perceptions of unfair targeting (16:16–18:21).

7. The Role of the Press and Public Perception

• Trump Losing Narrative Control

  • Coverage and headlines focusing on “obstruction of justice” and “cover-up” are shaking Trump’s hold on his supporters (18:21–18:53).

• Process and Pace of Political Scandal

  • Comparisons to Watergate and Clinton: such crises often unfold slowly, wearing down a president’s support over time (18:53–19:27).

8. The President’s Mental State & the 25th Amendment

• Discussion of Instability and Isolation
  • Trump’s increased withdrawal and avoidance of dissent compared to other presidents (23:43–25:27).
  • Details on the 25th Amendment, considered as a remote but possible tool for removal if the president is judged unfit by Cabinet and Congress (21:12–23:43).
  • Quote:
    “There are now people in Congress, members of Congress, who are talking about the president’s mental health in very serious terms.”
    —Evan Osnos (22:59)

9. Legislative Paralysis & the Reality of Presidential Survival

• Trump’s Stalled Agenda
  • Health care (“Trumpcare”) stalling, the border wall and travel ban blocked; legislative prospects look grim (25:27–25:40).
  • Historically, most presidents serve full terms; Osnos highlights that "the forces that are arrayed to keep Trump in office are substantial," but notes Trump’s uniquely risky behavior (25:40–27:14).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Contradiction on Comey Firing:
  “When I decided to just do it, I said to myself, you know, this Russia thing with Trump and Russia is a made up story.”
  —Donald Trump, via Evan Osnos (03:33)

• Obstruction of Justice Explained:
  “It can also be this much larger category in which you are trying to impede the fair adjudication of a matter of public interest.”
  —Evan Osnos (06:41)

• Pattern of Firings:
  “There is a pattern here. And now the question will become whether or not those actions, in and of themselves, the firing of these three constitutes an offense of its own.”
  —Evan Osnos (11:38)

• On Press Discipline and Public Perception:
  “When all of the headlines that people are seeing, undemocratic contempt for the law, obstruction of justice, cover up, that's when Trump's voters are going to begin to lose faith.”
  —Dorothy Wickenden (18:41)

• Presidential Isolation:
  “He is operating in what one of his advisors described to me as, ‘fortress Trump.’”
  —Evan Osnos (25:00)

• Perspective on Removal:
  “Any fair reading of history tells us that the president is likely to serve his full term. ... The forces that are arrayed to keep Trump in office are substantial.”
  —Evan Osnos (25:52–26:27)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Comey’s Firing and Narrative Changes: 02:24–04:37
• Crisis of Credibility & White House Press Undermined: 04:37–05:11
• Trump Threatens Comey, Legal Implications: 05:11–05:54
• Obstruction of Justice: Legal Context: 05:54–07:11
• Attorney General Sessions’ Contradictions: 07:11–09:03
• Trump’s “Not Under Investigation” Claim: 09:03–10:23
• Pattern in Firing Russia Investigators: 10:23–11:57
• Impeachment and Changed Calculations: 12:18–14:23
• Independent Counsel/Commission Debate: 15:08–16:16
• Historical Precedents: Nixon & Clinton: 16:16–18:21
• Press, Public Perception, and Pace of Scandal: 18:21–19:27
• 25th Amendment and Mental State Concerns: 21:12–23:43
• Trump’s Isolation and White House Culture: 23:43–25:27
• Legislative Gridlock and Survival Odds: 25:27–27:14

Episode Conclusion

The episode provides a timely, in-depth analysis of the rapidly unfolding crisis within the Trump administration following Comey’s dismissal. Osnos and Wickenden weigh the political dynamics, legal risks, and historical precedents, leaving listeners with a sober assessment of both the gravity of this moment and the systemic inertia that often protects presidents—even embattled ones—from removal.