The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Clinton’s Rivals
Date: November 14, 2014
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: Ryan Lizza, Evan Osnos

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the brewing challenges facing Hillary Clinton ahead of a presumed 2016 presidential bid—examining her vulnerabilities both from within her own party and from Republicans. The discussion covers potential Democratic challengers, Clinton's policy record (particularly on foreign policy), and the domestic political implications of Obama’s climate agreement with China. The conversation also explores how issues such as jobs, the economy, and campaign financing may shape the 2016 race.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Hillary Clinton’s Political Vulnerabilities and Primary Prospects

(01:16 – 05:54)

• Democratic Crowdedness isn't a Given
  • While Clinton is the clear frontrunner, history shows open primaries always draw challengers. Anxiety exists on the Democratic left about her centrist politics.
  • "The conventional wisdom is that she is an inevitable nominee that will just march to the convention ... but that's never happened before when the Democrats have had an open primary." (Ryan Lizza, 02:41)
• Potential Challengers
  • Ryan highlights three possible contenders:
    • Martin O’Malley (former MD governor)
    • Jim Webb (former VA senator)
    • Bernie Sanders (VT senator, self-described socialist)
  • None seem, at this point, capable of building the required coalition to truly threaten Clinton.
  • Key elements needed to unseat Clinton: a powerful message, the ability to siphon off core Democratic constituencies, and a robust nationwide organization (03:54).
• Elizabeth Warren’s Role
  • Warren had the message and potential organizing power, but insisted she’s not running.
  • “The reason is looking at the criteria I laid out about how you could beat Hillary, Warren's got message ... perhaps Elizabeth Warren could take a big chunk of the female electorate." (Ryan Lizza, 05:09)
  • The consensus: A white male will struggle to beat Hillary due to lack of a distinct constituency.

2. Clinton’s Foreign Policy Record: Opportunity and Liability

(05:57 – 10:02)

• Baggage from Past Votes and Decisions
  • Clinton’s support for the Iraq war and Libya intervention remain liabilities.
  • Benghazi will haunt her campaign, serving as an easy partisan attack point.
  • "She is now saddled with the Benghazi disaster forever." (Dorothy Wickenden, 06:37)
  • Her recent efforts to distinguish herself from Obama—especially on Syria—at times align her with Republican foreign policy talking points.
  • "She has had to move herself into the position that she does not want to be in, which is that she effectively has to distance herself from her own accomplishments in office because that's where the American mood is." (Evan Osnos, 07:55)
• Foreign Policy Arguments in the Democratic Primary
  • Past primaries (like 2008) show foreign policy can be decisive when a challenger leverages it skillfully.
  • Consensus: It's unlikely a Democratic opponent could successfully challenge Clinton solely on her foreign policy record (e.g. on Burma).

3. The U.S.-China Climate Agreement and Its Political Ripples

(09:45 – 15:06)

• Significance of the Deal
  • Obama’s landmark deal with China signals, for the first time, a concrete Chinese commitment to cut carbon emissions, offering a “demonstration effect” for global action.
  • “But I don't think anybody anticipated that it would be the breakthrough which it is.” (Evan Osnos, 10:02)
  • The agreement sets the agenda for the upcoming Paris climate summit.
• John Podesta’s Involvement
  • Podesta, the deal’s key architect, may soon transition to chairing Clinton's campaign, spotlighting climate change as a central Democratic issue.
• Republican Backlash
  • Immediate Republican pushback, especially from leaders like Mitch McConnell, frames the agreement as economically damaging.
• Pressure on Clinton
  • The deal gives Democrats a meaningful achievement, but raises expectations for Clinton to "be bold on climate change," despite its tricky political terrain.
  • "This is going to put a lot of pressure on Hillary Clinton to be bold on climate change. And it's not going to be easy." (Ryan Lizza, 12:17)

4. The Politics of Climate Change in 2016

(13:38 – 15:21)

• Shifting Public Opinion
  • While climate action is popular among young, female, and Latino voters, it’s still deeply unpopular in coal-dependent red states.
  • "It's an issue ... like same sex marriage ... easy to overlook until it bursts into the open and all of a sudden it's just a fact of life." (Evan Osnos, 14:11)
• Relative Priority
  • Despite activist energy, climate change ranks low compared to bread-and-butter issues like jobs and the economy.
  • "I hate to say it, but it ranks really, really low." (Ryan Lizza, 14:54)

5. Economic Messaging and Clinton’s Ties to Wall Street

(15:21 – 18:30)

• Democratic Messaging Gaps
  • Jim Webb and others critique Democrats’ anemic economic messaging, focusing on small-bore issues like the minimum wage rather than a big-picture vision.
  • "They just didn't have an overarching view of what's wrong with the economy." (Ryan Lizza, 15:40)
  • After eight years of Obama, median wages remain lower, fueling left-leaning frustration.
• Clinton’s Wall Street Vulnerability
  • Clinton’s extensive Wall Street associations present a genuine vulnerability when running a populist campaign.
  • The paradox: Any challenger needs immense funding to mount a campaign—potentially implicating themselves in the same Wall Street entanglements.
  • Two paths to funding: “a national small donor network ... or the super PAC option” (Ryan Lizza, 17:35).
  • "Maybe it doesn't beat Hillary Clinton, but it tortures her for a while." (Ryan Lizza, 17:46)
  • Democrats face their first open primary in the “super PAC” era—potentially changing the dynamics.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Clinton’s inevitability:
  "That's never happened before when the Democrats have had an open primary. And I think for a whole set of reasons, it's unlikely to happen this time as well."
  — Ryan Lizza (02:41)

• On Warren’s strengths and constraints:
  "Perhaps Elizabeth Warren could take a big chunk of the female electorate. The sort of conventional wisdom is that a white guy can't beat Hillary Clinton because there's just no constituency that he's going to be able to steal from her."
  — Ryan Lizza (05:09)

• On Clinton's foreign policy bind:
  "She has had to move herself into the position that she does not want to be in, which is that she effectively has to distance herself from her own accomplishments in office because that's where the American mood is."
  — Evan Osnos (07:55)

• On the U.S.-China climate deal:
  "Now it's fixed a point on the calendar and said that they will begin to fall after that point ... this now gives permission to other countries to be more ambitious in their own targets."
  — Evan Osnos (10:02)

• On campaign financing dilemmas:
  "That's the big unknown in 2016 because, remember, the Democrats have not had an open primary since the post Citizens United world, since the emergence of super PACs and the ability of donors to spend unlimited amount of money on campaigns."
  — Ryan Lizza (17:46)

Important Timestamps

• 01:16 — Show opens; overview of Clinton's position and context
• 02:41 — Discussion of Democratic primary history and challenger dynamics
• 03:54 — Why Obama succeeded against Clinton in 2008
• 05:00 — Why Elizabeth Warren isn't in the running
• 05:57 — Foreign policy: Clinton's vulnerabilities and Benghazi
• 07:55 — Clinton’s balancing act concerning Obama’s record
• 09:45 — The US–China climate agreement and its significance
• 11:23 — John Podesta's role and implications for Clinton
• 12:34 — Republican resistance; Congressional rollbacks
• 14:11 — Public opinion shift on climate change
• 15:06 — Economic issues as primary voter concern
• 15:40 — Critique of Democratic economic messaging
• 16:57 — Clinton’s Wall Street problem and campaign financing issues
• 17:35 — How a challenger might realistically finance a campaign

Final Thoughts

This episode presents a nuanced portrait of the hurdles, dilemmas, and shifting political context facing Hillary Clinton ahead of 2016. It highlights both the formidable advantages she enjoys and the deep particular vulnerabilities that could be exploited—by the left and right alike. The episode also captures the emergence of new Democratic Party dynamics in the wake of Citizens United, and the increasing salience of issues like climate change, even as economic concerns continue to dominate.