David Remnick and Masha Lipman on Vladimir Putin and Ukraine.
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This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about Politics. It's Friday, March 7th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. Last week, Russian troops took control of the Crimean Peninsula. And yesterday the Crimean Parliament announced that it would hold a refere on whether to join the Russian Federation. President Obama denounced the move.
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The proposed referendum on the future of Crimea would violate the Ukrainian constitution and violate international law in 2014. We are well beyond the days when borders can be redrawn over the heads of democratic leaders.
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Putin is trembling at the stage.
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Yes, I'm sure he is. David Remnick is here to talk about President Putin and the latest news from Ukraine. Masha Lipman is joining us from Moscow. So, David, a few weeks ago there was a protest movement in Kiev, now precipitated by Putin. The region's undergoing the biggest crisis since the breakup of the Soviet Union. What is Putin thinking?
D
That's what used to be called the $64,000 question. And it became even more worrying not only after the invasion or occupation of Crimea and the threatening gestures toward the eastern part of the country. But also he gave a press conference that was just bizarre. I mean, he made statements like, there are no Russian troops in Crimea. His entire affect and way of thinking and speaking at that session with reporters outside of Moscow was just this side of disturbing. On the other hand, we know exactly what he wants to do. But we should also acknowledge the complexity of the politics and history of Ukraine. Not by way of excusing an invasion by any means. It should be condemned. But this is an extremely complicated country in which you've had a back and forth of presidents who are deeply corrupt, whether they're supporting the nationalist west or the Russian speaking or ethnic Russian East. And it's a mess. And it includes Europe's desire to bring Ukraine toward it. And at the same time, Russia has always felt a deep, deep affinity toward Ukraine that we can't possibly take on board to the degree to which there are many Russians that don't even think of Ukraine as a real country. And those people range from Putin himself to the late Alexander Solzhenitsyn.
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Yeah, and talk about him a little bit. You've got a comment in the forthcoming issue where you start with Solzhenitsyn and his idea of Slavic union.
D
Well, in 1990, while he was still in exile in Vermont, he issued a very strange 19th century sounding essay called how to Revitalize Russia. And he surprised a lot of people by saying, well, we should break up the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union is an empire. We can't afford empire. But we must, must, must retain a Slavic Union with Russia, Belarus, northern Kazakhstan, and maybe most important of all, Europe, Ukraine. I doubt that he'd be in favor. Not that it matters, and not that, by the way, anybody would care what he would say about the invasion. I don't think he would favor it, but it gives you some sense of the intensity of the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, historically, linguistically, culturally. And that's what so deeply complicates it, and it's not particularly well understood here.
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Masha, do you have anything to add to that?
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Actually, what David was now remembering, this bizarre piece by Solzhenitsyn mentioned, among other, is Belarus in Kazakhstan. And an interesting turn of events is taking place just these days, yesterday and today. Putin apparently would like to get at least one more country on board to endorse what he is doing. And apparently, while the meeting between Putin and some of his allies, mostly the president of Kazakhstan and Belarus, was announced, there's been no news about the meeting, which is an indication that he failed to get a any of these presidents on board. This means that Russia stands absolutely alone in this. Not even its closest allies want to endorse Russia's current policy.
D
This could derail him. I can't imagine that this adventure and the isolation it's creating in the world community and Russia is now a member of the global economy. It can't live in isolation, certainly not when it's a resource economy. People are very wary and worried about this on a very emotional level.
B
And Masha, how do you see that playing out in Moscow? I know that there's been more internal cracking down by Putin.
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Oh, very much so, and especially in these past days. There was a tiny anti war demonstration in Moscow just a few days ago. Just over 1,000 people. People were roughed up, several hundred of them, in fact 360 out of just over 1 were detained today. And this shows that probably the Kremlin is getting desperate. And I would really pay attention to what David just said about maybe Putin has overplayed his hand. Maybe we will not see this promptly, but maybe in the longer run. Today there are two demonstrations in Moscow just as we speak. One is a demonstration of people who are pro war. Of course nobody would say they are pro war, but they are for the Russian policy and they are for the people of the Crimea. And we know for a fact there is a leak of a document allergedly from Moscow city authorities ordering city municipal services to allocate a certain number of people like utilities, service people should provide 9,000 demonstrators. And people know this even if they come, even if they do not say no, but they know this is not a genuine expression of how they feel. There's also an anti war demonstration today. This one is allowed. But it seems that such a rally is an act of desperation. Another sign of desperation comes from the Crimea where a referendum was called by the local authorities. First scheduled for May 25, then March 30, now March 16. This seems to be a totally unlawful thing to do. A referendum in which people of the Crimea are supposed to vote for becoming part of Russia. This is one of the two questions. Do you want to be part of Ukraine? Do you want to become part of Russia? And in Russia the parliament is hastily putting together legislation that would simplify the procedure, legal procedure needed to basically annex to include a part of a foreign territory into Russia.
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You know, Dorothy, and it's also, since we're an island country practically, let's talk about us. The bizarre American reaction to this. I don't mean in The White House, but let's be very particular in the Republican Party is just extraordinary. Lindsey Graham and John McCain, who are the inevitable guests on Meet the Press to represent foreign policy opinion in the gop, have been calling the Obama administration feckless. Lindsey Graham has had one bizarre statement after another. I think anybody over a certain age in the Senate should be taken away from Twitter. It does them no good.
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He said it all sprang from Benghazi.
D
Yeah, the relationship between Benghazi and Crimea escapes me, but it apparently doesn't escape Lindsey Graham. And this is just crazy demagoguery that's been going on in the Republican Party.
B
They've turned it into a referendum on Obama's presidency. Have they said anything specific about what they would do?
D
No, they don't. But, you know, McCain just gets up in front of AIPAC, which is already a fraught atmosphere, and just tries to get the red meat out on the floor. And in the meantime, what's the administration done? It's organized in conjunction with Germany and European allies, economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and I have to say, as opposed to our experience in Syria, which is just a disaster, this pressure seems to have some impact.
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But, Masha, let me ask you about that specifically about Germany, which plays a very central role in all of this because of its strong economic ties to Russia. And Putin has been closer to Angela Merkel than she has been to other European leaders. She has said that the US proposal to push Russia out of the G8 is counterproductive. Yet she also pointed out, as David did at the beginning of this podcast, that Putin seems to have lost touch with reality. What is going on there?
E
Well, the relations between Russia and the US Are different from those between Russia and the European Union. In fact, the trade and economic relations are much closer between Russia and the European Union. And Russia remains the largest provider of gas to Europe. And this is a factor, and this is how it is easier, in a sense, for the United States to impose sanctions on Russia than it is for the European Union. And now that the sanctions have already been imposed by America, which in itself I think is amazing. It looked like this would never happen. And we're talking here about asset freezes for people responsible somehow. We are also talking about travel ban. These same measures, if joined by the European Union, should be much more painful for the Russian elites. However, Europe is not in a rush to impose sanctions. What we see these days, I think, is a very dangerous brinkmanship. Putin seems to be ready to go at any length. Just today, it was announced that Russia would stop Providing gas for Ukraine. Just stop. No gas for Ukraine. Ukraine receives 60% of its gas from Russia.
D
Boy, the Olympics seem a long time ago, Dorothy. I mean, let's roll the film back here. What did Putin want to do with the Olympics on a pop culture level at the price of $51 billion? He wanted to have a big symbolic re coming out party. We are back. We are strong. Don't diminish us. We are capable of putting on an event of the highest caliber on a world scale. Here we are now, just a few short weeks later, we see, on, not the pop cultural level, but on the military and geostrategic level, Russia behaving in a way. Not that it's alone in history in its bluster, not that it's alone in its foolishness of invading a sovereign country, God knows. But here we are today, looking at Russia, and it's getting no support. And the only support that it can get is support that it pays for or can gin up with pressure. Yes, it is absolutely capable of, in cold countries, shutting off the gas and having people cold at night or driving up gas prices. But it has overstepped, miscalculated in a way that is horrendous for, by the way, for the Kremlin, but also for Russians and for the region.
B
Is he likely to send troops further into Ukraine?
D
To be honest with you, Dorothy, if you had told me two weeks ago that he would have done this, I would have been very surprised. You know, the psychology of Putin is not, at this point, very hard to discern. He is sick of moralism and lectures from the West. He is freaked out and has been for years and years by the eastward expansion of NATO, which is a very real thing, and wants to assert his interests, what he sees as Russian interests or greater Russian interests. But it's come a cropper on this, Masha.
B
Earlier, David indicated that this time Putin may really have gone too far. Do you agree with that?
E
You know, on the one hand, it's hard to imagine. He actually has a popularity of almost 70%. His popularity has gone up over the past couple of weeks. The effect of the Olympics reinforced by the effects, I think, of Russia's assertiveness, the way it's presented to the Russian people. He has absolute loyalty of the Russian elites. What David was talking about, the expansion of NATO, this is an extremely important thing to him. He feels an existential threat. His desire, his intention, is to secure Russia by not allowing the west, whether the European Union or NATO, to come still closer to the Russian borders. To him, what happened in Ukraine when the government of President Yanukovych fell and people who are more pro Western and more nationalists coming from Western Ukraine came to Kyiv, the capital. The prospect of Ukraine becoming closer to the European Union with a prospect of integration, maybe a member of NATO, is the ultimate nightmare. There was a time in spring 2008 when NATO was ready to offer a membership action plan for both Ukraine and Georgia. Putin said it was a red line. The membership action plan did not happen at the time. The war in Georgia in some way can be looked at yet another step by Putin to be sending a Signal reckon with us.
D
Masha's as usual, 100% right. And I should also remember the depth of this resentment. Mikhail Gorbachev claims that he was told by George H.W. bush that he had no intention of pressing for the expansion of NATO east of Germany. If that promise was ever given, it was certainly betrayed. And Gorbachev feels this sense of resentment, but not so deeply, not even remotely as deeply as somebody like Vladimir Putin, considering his background, his psychology and who he is.
B
Okay, thank you both very much. David Remnick is the editor of the New Yorker, and Masha Lipman is a contributor. This has been the Political Scene from the New Yorker. Dorothy I'm Dorothy Wickenden.
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Right now, we are living through some of the most tumultuous political times our country has ever known. I'm David Remnick, and each week on the New Yorker Radio Hour, I'll try to make sense of what's happening alongside politicians and thinkers like Cory Booker, Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney, Tim Waltz, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Newt Gingrich, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Charlamagne, tha God, and so many more. That's all in the New Yorker Radio Hour. Wherever you listen to podcasts.
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From prx.
Episode: David Remnick and Masha Lipman on Vladimir Putin and Ukraine
Date: March 8, 2014
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: David Remnick (Editor, The New Yorker); Masha Lipman (Contributor, The New Yorker, from Moscow)
This urgent episode dissects the unfolding crisis in Ukraine in early 2014 as Russia moves to annex Crimea. Host Dorothy Wickenden convenes David Remnick and Masha Lipman to analyze Vladimir Putin’s motives, the historical and political complexities of Ukraine, the international response, and the Kremlin’s position domestically and abroad. The conversation illuminates the roots of Russian-Ukrainian tensions, the importance of the West’s actions, and the realism behind Putin’s geopolitical goals.
On the surreal nature of Russian official posturing:
On the fabricated mass rallies in Moscow:
On the Republican reaction:
On the European dilemma:
The conversation is urgent, analytical, and often laced with dry wit—especially as Remnick dissects American political grandstanding. Both Remnick and Lipman integrate deep historical context, frank criticism, and a sense of realism, counterbalancing official narratives and laying bare both Russian and Western strategic anxieties.
This episode offers a penetrating look into the roots of Russia’s invasion of Crimea, the delusions and fears of the Kremlin, and the challenges facing Western leaders in a newly revived confrontation with Moscow. Remnick and Lipman provide listeners with the history and context vital to understanding today’s headlines, while not letting any side off the hook for its part in creating this dangerous moment.