The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Dexter Filkins and Amy Davidson discuss Iraq and Syria
Date: August 30, 2014
Participants: Amelia Lester (Host), Dexter Filkins (Staff Writer, reporting from Erbil), Amy Davidson (Executive Editor, The New Yorker’s website)

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the rapidly evolving crises in Iraq and Syria in summer 2014, particularly the rise of ISIS (also referred to as ISIL), the American response, regional dynamics, and the immense challenges facing President Obama’s foreign policy team. Filkins shares direct insights from Erbil, Iraq, while Davidson provides context from New York. Together, they explore the tangled political, military, and humanitarian ramifications of ISIS’s ascendance, U.S. decision-making, and the fragility of the region’s states.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Situation in Erbil and Kurdish Iraq

[02:15–04:01]

• Immediate Context: Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region, was recently threatened by advancing ISIS forces.
  • Filkins describes Erbil as a modern, wealthy oil city, outwardly calm despite its close proximity (just 40 miles) to ISIS-controlled territory.
  • He’s skeptical that Erbil would have fallen, noting ISIS's pattern of targeting regions with local Arab support — lacking in Erbil, a predominantly Kurdish city now sheltering displaced Arabs and Christians.
• Frontline Reporting: Filkins traveled to Makmur and a frontline village recently retaken by the Kurdish Peshmerga.
  • The Peshmerga were “embarrassed” by recent ISIS gains and “eager to get back” lost territory, reflecting local tensions and Kurdish determination.

2. Composition and Tactics of ISIS

[04:01–05:10]

• Origins: While Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was dominated by foreigners, ISIS is “led by Iraqis… but there are a lot of foreigners, even Americans and Europeans.”
  • Foreign fighters are typically regarded as the most zealous and often serve as suicide bombers.
• Military Tactics: ISIS employs a brutal, systematic approach—artillery bombardments, followed by waves of suicide bombers, then ground assaults.

3. Distinguishing Al Qaeda from ISIS

[05:10–06:07]

• The contrast is partly one of “turf”—ISIS’s ambitions are regionally focused (establishing a caliphate), whereas Al Qaeda’s are more global.
• However, both are “full of psychopaths who like to kill people” and pose serious threats beyond the region, especially given the presence of Europeans and Americans among ISIS ranks who could potentially “come home anytime.”

Memorable Quote:

“If there’s one thing that’s keeping people awake in Washington, it’s that.”
— Dexter Filkins [05:54]

4. The Obama Administration’s Dilemma

[06:07–08:03; 08:14–09:42]

• Strategic Uncertainty: President Obama had just stated “we don’t have a strategy yet” regarding ISIS, particularly concerning potential airstrikes in Syria versus Iraq.
  • Davidson explains that while a strategy for Iraq exists, Syria remains unresolved—a distinction difficult to sustain given intertwined realities.
• Complex Balances: Targeting ISIS in Syria could inadvertently strengthen Assad’s regime, which the U.S. opposes. Yet Assad also fights ISIS.
  • Filkins bluntly calls it a “zero-sum game” — airstrikes against ISIS benefit Assad, an “absolute butcher,” raising profound ethical and strategic quandaries.

Memorable Quote:

“I can’t imagine that President Obama is going to find himself sidling up next to Assad.”
— Dexter Filkins [09:15]

• Moderate Rebels: The U.S. has increased support for so-called moderates, but these groups “have been pretty well marginalized.”
  • Filkins sees the search for a “third force between extremes” as a recurrent—and sometimes illusory—feature of American foreign policy.

5. Assessing the Syrian Opposition

[09:42–10:51]

• The moderate opposition “have been hammered. I think they’ve been weakened.”
  • As civil wars drag on, “the more extreme people become.”
• The opposition, aside from ISIS and Assad, is “really atomized... tiny little groups, some of whom are fighting each other.”
• White House deliberation centers on whether these groups are “salvageable,” acknowledging how murky and confusing the situation remains on the ground.

6. Political Realities in Iraq

[10:51–12:32]

• The U.S. hopes for a broad coalition government uniting Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds, but Filkins is skeptical, calling it “American wishful thinking.”
• Kurdish officials argue, “Iraq only exists in the minds of the Americans. You know, it doesn’t exist anymore.”
• The U.S. is confronted with “not one failed state, but two”—Iraq and Syria—while ISIS forms an emergent, functional “new state.”
• There is little real governmental structure left to work with, only Assad, “a genocidal murderer,” and a “broken beyond repair” Iraq.

Memorable Quote:

“We’re dealing now with not one failed state, but two. And so you have a failed state in Syria and a failed state in Iraq... Out of these two failed states has come the new state, which is not failed, it’s thriving—the Islamic State.”
— Dexter Filkins [11:58]

7. Obama’s Foreign Policy Challenges Ahead

[12:32–13:38]

• Beyond Iraq and Syria, Obama faced urgent crises in Ukraine, Gaza, and even the domestic unrest in Ferguson.
• Davidson warns the Russian situation requires “serious diplomacy,” even as ISIS dominates headlines.
• Congressional politics and looming midterms will soon crowd the agenda.

Notable Exchange:

“There’s a certain sense of urgency everybody has about ISIS because they’re on the move… And dare we mention Gaza?”
— Amy Davidson [12:51–13:40]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On ISIS’s appeal and threat:

  “ISIS has come to represent the very worst elements in the region that we have to deal with collectively.”
  — Dexter Filkins [01:25]

• On the complexity of U.S. policy options in Syria:

  “It’s a zero-sum game on the ground inside Syria... If you try to destroy ISIS, then you inevitably will strengthen Assad.”
  — Dexter Filkins [08:14]

• On the illusion of Iraqi unity:

  “Iraq only exists in the minds of the Americans. You know, it doesn’t exist anymore.”
  — Kurdish officials via Dexter Filkins [11:31]

Important Timestamps

• 01:25: Defining ISIS's threat and Obama's "no strategy yet" moment.
• 02:15: Filkins describes conditions in Erbil, Kurdish Iraq.
• 03:22: Eyewitness reporting from frontline towns recently contested by ISIS.
• 04:06: Discussion of ISIS’s composition and tactics.
• 05:10: The distinction between ISIS and Al Qaeda, and foreign fighters’ danger.
• 06:07: Obama’s strategic dilemma, especially regarding potential blowback in Syria.
• 08:14: Options for airstrikes in Syria and their consequences.
• 09:45: The weakened state of Syrian moderates.
• 10:59: The faltering dream of a unified Iraq and rise of “two failed states.”
• 12:51: Obama’s overloaded foreign policy agenda, including Ukraine and Gaza.

Tone and Takeaways

The conversation is frank, wary, and tinged with urgency. Both guests underscore the immense difficulties facing the U.S.—a landscape of failed states, uncertain allies, and terrible choices wherein every move carries high risks and moral ambiguity. The episode captures the confusion, complexity, and high stakes of U.S. policy in Iraq and Syria at a pivotal moment in 2014.