Podcast Summary: Dexter Filkins and George Packer on Obama’s Syria Dilemma

Podcast: The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: Dexter Filkins, George Packer
Date: August 29, 2013
Duration of Content: 00:01:14 – 00:15:17

Overview

This episode explores President Obama’s options and constraints as he faces mounting pressure to respond to the Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in Syria’s civil war. With a recent large-scale poison gas attack bringing the issue to the fore, The New Yorker’s Dexter Filkins and George Packer break down the grim choices before the administration, the complexities of both the Syrian conflict and American policy, and the broader implications for the region and U.S. interests.

Key Discussion Points

1. Obama’s Red Line and Chemical Weapons Use

• Background: Obama had warned Assad a year prior that using chemical weapons would cross a U.S. “red line.”
• Recent Attack: The latest attack, unlike the dozens before, killed hundreds (02:16–02:45).
  • Dexter Filkins:

    “You've had something along the order of 30 to 35 attacks already... But the total number of dead is only between 100 and 150. So he's been kind of flying under the radar. And so what makes this last attack so different is the size of it. Very big, very lethal, as far as we can tell. Hundreds of people dead.” (02:16)

• Obama’s Response: The attack is forcing Obama to address his own ultimatum, but the path forward is unclear.

2. The Complexity of Choices and the Syrian Opposition

• Options: None Good
  • The regime is backed by Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah.
  • The opposition is fragmented; the most effective group, Al Nusra, is affiliated with Al Qaeda (02:57–03:37).
    • Dexter Filkins:

      "On the other hand, what do you have? You have a very fragmented opposition that isn't doing very well. And the one group that's doing well, the Al Nusra Front... is basically a sister organization of Al Qaeda in Iraq." (02:57)

  • Al Qaeda’s affiliates now operate seamlessly across Syria and Iraq (03:37–04:15).
    • George Packer:

      “It feels like 2006, 2007... the border has dissolved and Al Qaeda no longer distinguishes between the two countries...” (03:37)

3. U.S. National Interests and the Limits of Intervention

• Abstract Interests
  • Obama must justify intervention when the U.S. itself isn't directly attacked (04:30–05:00).
    • Dexter Filkins:

      “This is not a case where, say, the United States has been attacked... This one's a little bit more fuzzy.”

• Operational Dilemmas
  • Striking chemical weapons sites is too risky (05:03).
  • Targeting the regime risks a power vacuum (05:03–05:50).
  • Limited options include striking military units responsible for chemical attacks, but their effectiveness is questionable.
    • "Boy, you know, this is the Middle East, and people don't take shots across the bow very seriously." (05:37)

4. The Role of Congress and International Legitimacy

• Reluctance to Seek Congressional Approval
  • Obama, though a proponent of institutional frameworks, has been hesitant to involve Congress or the UN (05:50–07:08).
    • George Packer:

      “The United nations is blocked up... Congress, I don't see the reason not to. It seems like he would get it through... Obama now seems to be ignoring [procedural channels]. And perhaps it's just what presidents do. They want to exercise power as freely as possible.” (05:54)

• Legacy of Iraq
  • The shadow of the Iraq War influences all decisions.
    • Dexter Filkins:

      "We're all waiting to see the case that the president makes and the intelligence that he's willing to release. And we all know what happened the last time that that happened." (07:08)

5. Deterrence, Law, and “International Norms”

• Justification for Force
  • With no clear strategic goal, the U.S. frames action in terms of upholding the norm against chemical weapons use (07:56).
    • George Packer:

      “It's an international norm that you don't gas people... is that really going to deter Assad and other monsters from doing this again? ... If these strikes don't have that deterrent effect, then to me they seem like a foolish, reactive effort...” (07:56–09:19)

6. The “Pinprick” Dilemma and Assad’s Motivation

• Effectiveness of Limited Strikes
  • What if a limited strike provokes Assad to escalate? (09:21–10:17)
    • Dexter Filkins:

      “Imagine if we do a kind of... slap on the wrist attack... and then Assad uses them again on a larger scale. What do we do then? It's terrible.” (09:21)

  • Why did Assad use chemical weapons when his position had stabilized?
    • Dexter Filkins:

      “That situation has totally changed in his favor... so it's puzzling.” (09:21)

  • George Packer: Suggests possible miscalculation or tactical overreach by Assad (10:17).

7. Regional Repercussions and Refugee Crisis

• Spillover Across Borders
  • The civil war is engulfing Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, and Iraq (11:04–11:40).
    • Dexter Filkins:

      "The concern... was, we can't have this war go on another year. If it goes on for another year, then the consequences for the region are going to be catastrophic... these countries are being overwhelmed." (11:04)

8. Iran’s Calculus and U.S. Negotiations

• Impact on Diplomacy
  • Striking Syria could complicate U.S.-Iran negotiations over nuclear issues (11:40–12:24).
    • George Packer:

      “What will that do to President Rouhani's ability to bring hardliners along in serious negotiations? Is that going to set it back a couple of years? Is it going to poison the atmosphere from the very start of his administration?” (11:40)

  • Iran’s support for Assad is seen as existential despite sanctions (12:24–13:11).
    • Dexter Filkins:

      “Iran... is under severe economic pressure... And nonetheless, they are all in and they are massively helping Assad.” (12:24)

9. Humanitarian Intervention and the Limits of Power

• Moral Dilemmas
  • When and how do you intervene to stop atrocities? (13:11–15:17)
  • George Packer references Samantha Power’s writings and summarizes the administration’s predicament:

    “We're not going to stop a humanitarian disaster, and we probably aren't even going to be able to stop the use of chemical weapons... there's probably a serious argument going on inside his administration... haunted by two different specters. One is the specter of Iraq... and the other is the specter of genocide and what happens when dictators are not stopped... Obama is kind of trying to have it neither, nor to split the difference... I'm not sure it's a very satisfactory one.” (13:25–15:17)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the futility of limited strikes:
  “Boy, you know, this is the Middle East, and people don't take shots across the bow very seriously.”
  — Dexter Filkins (05:37)

• On U.S. procedural reluctance:
  “Obama now seems to be ignoring [procedural channels]… perhaps it's just what presidents do. They want to exercise power as freely as possible.”
  — George Packer (06:56)

• On the double haunting of Iraq and genocide:
  “Haunted by two different specters. One is the specter of Iraq... the other is the specter of genocide... Obama is kind of trying to have it neither, nor to split the difference...”
  — George Packer (13:25–15:17)

• On Assad’s calculations:
  “That situation has totally changed in his favor... so it's puzzling.”
  — Dexter Filkins (09:21)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• President Obama’s “red line” and chemical attacks: 01:28–02:45
• Nature of opposition in Syria: 02:57–03:37
• Al Qaeda’s influence across Iraq and Syria: 03:37–04:15
• U.S. national interests and limits of military options: 04:30–05:50
• Congressional and UN process issues: 05:50–07:08
• Legacy of Iraq and its shadow on decisions: 07:08–07:56
• Airstrikes and deterrence discussion: 07:56–09:19
• The “pinprick” dilemma and Assad’s calculations: 09:21–10:50
• Regional spillover and refugees: 11:04–11:40
• Iran's involvement and negotiation dynamics: 11:40–13:11
• Humanitarian crisis and Obama's quandary: 13:11–15:17

Tone and Language

Throughout, the conversation is frank, analytical, and concerned—mixing sober assessment with moments of skepticism and moral seriousness. Both Filkins and Packer draw on deep reporting and historical parallels (notably Iraq, 2006–7), highlighting the insolubility and gravity of Obama’s Syria dilemma.

Summary by:
The Political Scene Podcast Summarizer – August 29, 2013