The Political Scene | The New Yorker Episode: Does Diplomacy Have a Chance of Ending War in Ukraine? Date: August 30, 2023 Host: Tyler Foggatt | Guest: Keith Gessen

Overview

This episode dives deep into the ongoing debate about whether diplomacy and negotiations could realistically bring an end to Russia’s war in Ukraine. Host Tyler Foggatt interviews Keith Gessen, contributing New Yorker writer and author of the essay “The Case for Negotiating with Russia.” Drawing on Gessen's reporting and conversations with experts like Samuel Charap, the discussion explores both the practicalities and the moral dilemmas of seeking a diplomatic resolution, the shifting military and political landscapes, the complex role of the U.S., and the psychology of negotiation with Vladimir Putin.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. How the Prospects for War Termination Have Shifted (01:17–05:29)

• Last year, optimism surged in Ukraine and the West as Ukrainian counteroffensives reclaimed significant territory.
• Gessen explains that "war termination" studies suggest conflicts generally end when one side lowers its demands—but this hasn’t happened in Ukraine:

  "When one of the sides starts doing better, their minimum demands increase...what was happening last fall was the Ukrainian counteroffensive that was going incredibly well..." (03:18–03:52)

• Currently, Ukrainian advances have slowed, and negotiations are back in the policy debate.

2. Samuel Charap and the Korean War Armistice Model (05:29–06:58)

• Samuel Charap argues for a ceasefire similar to the Korean War’s armistice: fighting ends, but claims aren’t recognized.
• Charap’s logic: this freeze, while not ideal, would be better than ongoing high-intensity war.
• Gessen outlines the controversy: such an armistice might leave Russian-occupied areas as de facto Russian, even if not de jure.

3. Three Areas of Disagreement about Negotiations (06:58–12:23)

a. Does Negotiating Show Weakness?

• Fear that even discussing negotiations signals Western fatigue and emboldens Putin:

  “Does Putin see that as a sign of weakness?...Will Putin...interpret that in a way that's going to make him harder to deal with?” (07:34–08:14)

b. Can Ukraine Actually Win Militarily?

• Divergence among experts: some see stalemate, others believe continued Western support could deliver more gains for Ukraine.

c. Would Putin Comply with Any Deal?

• Deep skepticism over whether Putin would stop at current gains:

  “There’s a lot of evidence that he won’t stop...he will not stop until Ukraine is defeated.” (11:00)

• Charap’s proposed measures to discourage further aggression include monitored withdrawal zones, drone surveillance, and sanction snap-backs for violations.

• Gessen underscores the moral cost: “...in this scenario, you do leave parts of Ukraine occupied by Russian forces. And we have a great deal of evidence that what goes on...is really horrible. You know, it is torture chambers, it is deportations...It’s horrible.” (11:45–12:23)

4. Controversies around Territorial Concessions (12:23–15:21)

• The idea of freezing the front lines without Ukraine formally ceding territory remains deeply unpopular in Ukraine—though a minority argue for ending the war to save what remains.

• Gessen: “If we thought that Ukraine could take this land back...I don't think we'd be having this conversation at all.” (14:28–15:04)

5. U.S., Ukraine, and Divergent Interests (15:21–18:15)

• Charap frames U.S. and Ukrainian interests as overlapping but not identical.
• The U.S. has its own strategic imperatives—some believe Russia has already been “defeated” in strategic terms due to sanctions and global isolation.

  “...from the U.S. perspective, the Russian defeat has already taken place, like, optically.” (16:33)

• Risk that a prolonged war could turn Russia into even more of a rogue state.

6. War Momentum and Escalating Stakes (20:57–23:25)

• Foggatt and Gessen discuss how wars develop new reasons for their own continuation—compounding the difficulty of ending them.

  “...the regime has put a lot of eggs in this basket of this war and has begun to really mobilize the population for a kind of long term confrontation...” (20:57–21:24)

• Atrocities (like Bucha) have hardened Ukrainian attitudes against negotiation.

7. The Elusive March 2022 Peace Deal (23:25–25:15)

• Early negotiations in 2022, including a proposed Russian withdrawal and Ukrainian pledge not to join NATO, broke down over lack of Western security guarantees—today these offers look more attractive in hindsight, but their sincerity remains uncertain.

8. Can You Ever Trust Putin? (25:15–26:59)

• Gessen is unequivocal: “He has broken every deal that, you know, he has made, certainly with Ukraine...So, no, there is nobody that would want to rely on the good word of Vladimir Putin.” (25:15–25:49)
• Question becomes whether Putin can be swayed by “incentives and disincentives.”

9. Internal Russian Dynamics: Prigozhin’s Death and Regime Stability (26:59–29:53)

• Prigozhin’s mutiny and recent death indicate instability but also may consolidate Putin’s power.
• The U.S. and Russia both “wait for collapse” in the opposing camp—either regime change in Russia or a split in the Western alliance.

10. Ukraine Support and U.S. Politics: Realignment and Uncertainty (29:53–32:59)

• Growing partisan divide in the U.S. over Ukraine support:

  “It is a kind of a sort of rearrangement in American politics. Right. Where traditionally the Republicans during the Cold War were the more hawkish party...that really changed in 2016 with Russian interference...” (31:29–32:59)

• Trump’s association with Putin has deeply colored public and party attitudes.

11. Who Decides When to Seek Peace? U.S. Leverage and Agency (32:59–35:46)

• The key question: Does the U.S. hold the reins, or is the decision ultimately Ukraine’s?
• Gessen: “We are the most powerful country in the world...for us to pretend like we can't talk to Ukraine about how this war ends, that's disingenuous and kind of an abdication of our responsibility.” (34:35)
• Ultimately, Ukraine must decide—but U.S. encouragement or pressure may prove pivotal.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On War Termination:
  “One of the two sides has to change their demands, their minimum demands. And at the time that was not happening, the demands were too far apart.”*—Keith Gessen (03:14)

• On the Limits of Negotiation:
  "The distinction between an armistice and a peace deal is that you aren't making a permanent deal where you're saying, yes, these are Russian territories, you're saying, we will stop fighting, but, no, we do not acknowledge Russian dominion here because this is our land." —Keith Gessen (13:13)

• On Western Perspective:
  “From the U.S. perspective, the Russian defeat has already taken place, like, optically... there is a danger that Russia becomes even, even more of a rogue state than it now is...” —Keith Gessen (16:23–17:25)

• On Putin and Negotiated Peace:
  “I don't think anyone, no one that I talk to thinks, oh, you know, you could take Putin at his word, and that that would be the basis of a deal.” —Keith Gessen (25:15)

• On Atrocities and Public Opinion:
  "After the Russian army withdrew from the towns around Kiev, and Ukrainian forces and journalists went into those areas, Bucha, Irpin, and saw what had happened there, negotiations which had been taking place after that, they more or less broke down." —Keith Gessen (22:32)

• On U.S. Responsibility:
  “For us to pretend like we can't talk to Ukraine about how this war ends, that's disingenuous and kind of an abdication of our responsibility.” —Keith Gessen (34:35)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• How war termination theory applies to Ukraine: 02:24–05:29
• Samuel Charap’s negotiation framework and Korean comparison: 05:29–06:58
• Key debates: weakness, military prospects, Putin’s motives: 06:58–12:23
• Territorial questions and their controversy: 12:23–15:21
• U.S. vs. Ukrainian interests and consequence for Russia: 15:21–18:15
• Russian war aims, atrocities, and negotiation breakdowns: 20:57–25:15
• Early 2022 negotiation offers and breakdown: 23:25–25:15
• Trustworthiness of Putin: 25:15–26:59
• Russian internal instability and Prigozhin’s death: 26:59–29:53
• U.S. political realignment and polarization on Ukraine: 29:53–32:59
• Who controls the peace process—U.S. or Ukraine?: 32:59–35:46

Conclusion

The episode offers an unflinching look at the complex, often agonizing calculations behind calls for negotiation in Ukraine. Gessen carefully untangles the spectrum of policy positions, the evolving military dynamics, the moral costs of freezing conflict, and the tricky interplay between U.S. leverage and Ukrainian agency. While the answer to whether diplomacy stands a chance remains open, the conversation clarifies just how tangled—and consequential—the decision will be.