Podcast Summary: "Evan Osnos and Jiayang Fan on the Hong Kong Protests"

The Political Scene | The New Yorker
October 14, 2019
Host: David Remnick
Guests: Evan Osnos, Jiayang Fan

Overview

This episode features a deep dive into the ongoing 2019 Hong Kong protests, the Chinese government’s response, and their international implications. Host David Remnick speaks with New Yorker staff writers Evan Osnos, just returned from Beijing, and Jiayang Fan, freshly back from Hong Kong, to shed light on the emotional landscape, political complexities, and global reverberations of Hong Kong’s demonstrations for greater autonomy and democracy. The episode also explores the differing perspectives in Hong Kong and Beijing, U.S. policy regarding China, and how leaders like Xi Jinping and Donald Trump shape the crisis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Emotional Tenor and Nature of Protesters (02:43–04:58)

• Who is protesting?
  • Jiayang Fan notes that about 80% of Hong Kong protesters are middle- or working-class people, ranging from 20 to 75 years old. Most support freedom in Hong Kong but are undecided on how far they’re willing to go.
  • The “frontline protesters” (those seen in Western media, dressed in black and sometimes using violence) make up a small minority.

“They feel just so strongly that they are there to support the freedom that they have understood to be part and parcel of Hong Kong society.” — Jiayang Fan (02:54)

• Evolution of demands
  • Protests began over a controversial extradition law but grew into broader demands, driven by accumulated anger after the failed 2014 Umbrella Movement and fear of Hong Kong becoming “just another mainland city.”

Beijing’s Framing of the Protests (05:01–07:55)

• Beijing’s Perspective
  • Evan Osnos describes the stark contrast: in mainland China, the protests are framed not as a fight for ideals but as a “separatist movement” aimed at breaking up Chinese territory, tapping into historical anxieties about national sovereignty.

“The subject of Hong Kong and its protests has nothing to do with idealism or with young people… It is described in Beijing consistently as a, quote, separatist movement.” — Evan Osnos (05:26)

• Possible futures
  • Osnos sees no indication that Beijing will accommodate protester demands. A Tiananmen-style crackdown is unlikely due to Hong Kong’s financial importance and China’s international image, but China will keep applying incremental pressure.

Fears of a Tiananmen Scenario and Protester Psychology (07:55–09:11)

• Some young protesters, especially on the front lines, see themselves as risking everything, even inviting international attention should a repressive military response occur.
• There’s widespread concern about the proximity of PLA (People’s Liberation Army) soldiers and the possibility of a violent crackdown.

Surveillance and Protest Tactics (09:11–10:50)

• High-tech repression
  • Protesters protect their identities meticulously, even covering their ears, fearful that advanced AI may identify them from physical features.
  • Osnos recounts how protesters attacked “smart lampposts”—symbols of China’s surveillance ambitions.

“These are the perfect expressions, the physical expressions of China’s future governance model.... Technology allows that now.” — Evan Osnos (09:50)

• Xi Jinping’s longevity
  • Osnos connects this surveillance culture to Xi’s drive to prolong the Communist Party’s rule, now surpassing the Soviet Union’s duration.

Xi Jinping’s Consolidation of Power (10:50–12:22)

• Cult of personality
  • Fan credits Xi’s anti-corruption campaign with building public support while eliminating rivals. Internal Communist Party factions are seen as his greatest threat. Xi has built a powerful mythology around himself as the only leader who can restore China’s stature.

“He has convinced the people that only, only he can lead the country into superstition, power status. The transition really from the century of shame...to a nation that will ultimately outdo the United States.” — Jiayang Fan (11:39)

Comparing Xi Jinping and Donald Trump (12:22–13:54)

• Osnos outlines the stark differences in background and leadership style. Xi is methodical, cautious, and distrusts Trump, whom he finds “utterly mystifying.”
• Trump’s unpredictability and disregard for established diplomacy have unsettled Chinese officials, who now approach the U.S. with “total and complete self-protection.”

U.S. Response and Hong Kong Protesters’ View (13:54–16:16)

• American and British flags
  • Protesters wave these flags to attract U.S. attention, hoping for support. However, when asked about Trump’s lack of action, a protester tells Fan she’s focused on ensuring U.S. policymakers understand the situation’s urgency.

“All I need is for some of the politicians in Washington to see.” — Jiayang Fan quoting a protester (14:57)

• Trump’s silence and Beijing’s view
  • Hong Kong’s pro-Beijing camp appreciates Trump’s transactional approach, seeing his lack of interest in human rights as advantageous for their agenda.

Chinese and Russian Election Interference Contrasted (16:16–18:11)

• China’s restraint
  • Osnos explains that while China has hacked U.S. campaigns for intelligence, it hasn’t disseminated information or sown chaos like Russia, preferring stability in the U.S. over chaos that could generate backlash.

“China would be much happier to watch the United States go through its own paroxysms of political disorder than to risk the possibility of engendering some American backlash by actively intervening.” — Evan Osnos (17:59)

Who Does China Prefer in U.S. Elections? (18:11–19:42)

• Fan suggests China views Elizabeth Warren warily as firm on human rights, Bernie Sanders as more hands-off, and generally finds Biden familiar. The CCP historically prefers Republicans for their business orientation, but Trump’s unpredictability leaves Beijing uneasy.

“This Republican president has scrambled the circuits to such a degree in Beijing that they really don’t know.” — Evan Osnos (18:59)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the emotional reality in Hong Kong:
  “There was just this rising panic that Hong Kong was becoming like another mainland city utterly under the thumb of the Communist Party.” — Jiayang Fan (04:45)

• On Beijing’s historical narrative:
  “Any Chinese person will tell you that the country, over the course of history, has been invaded and has been carved up. And so by talking about it as an assault on Chinese territory, that’s tapping into a very deep political well.” — Evan Osnos (05:38)

• On the trade-offs of a violent crackdown:
  “If they went into Hong Kong today with tanks...this would devastate a financial capital that is very important to China’s economy...and more importantly, would devastate China’s effort to try to establish itself on the global stage as an alternative to American leadership.” — Evan Osnos (07:10)

• On Xi’s grip on power:
  “The greatest threat to a political leader is not actually the people protesting or...the economy, but other rivaling factions trying to topple him.” — Jiayang Fan (11:13)

• On U.S. protesters’ outlook:
  “In this war, there is no one who’s powerful enough to save Hong Kong, except possibly the US.” — Hong Kong protester, via Jiayang Fan (14:24)

• On Chinese election hacking:
  “It never weaponized the information...It really used it for intelligence gathering purposes.” — Evan Osnos (17:31)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:43] — The social makeup and motivations of Hong Kong protesters
• [04:01] — How protest demands broadened over time
• [05:24] — Beijing’s official narrative and anniversary context
• [06:40] — Assessment of Beijing’s response to the protests
• [07:55] — Fears (and limits) of Tiananmen Square-style escalation
• [09:11] — Protester strategies vs. Chinese surveillance
• [10:50] — How Xi Jinping consolidated and sustains power
• [12:36] — Xi vs. Trump: differences in leadership and diplomacy
• [13:54] — American/British flags at protests & U.S. reaction
• [15:28] — Pro-Beijing perspectives on Trump’s policies
• [16:37] — Chinese views on interference vs. Russia
• [18:11] — Beijing’s preferred outcomes for the 2020 U.S. election

Language and Tone

Throughout the conversation, both guests draw on personal experience and a sobering, analytical tone. Jiayang Fan conveys the tension and anxiety on the ground, while Evan Osnos gives a broad, geopolitical view. David Remnick’s questions are probing and reflective, maintaining a balance of empathy and intellectual rigor.

Conclusion

The episode provides a nuanced exploration of the stakes in Hong Kong, the rigidity of Beijing’s response, and the complexity of U.S.-China relations. It clarifies that the protests are both an intensely local fight for freedoms and a flashpoint in the geopolitical contest between China and the West, playing out against the backdrop of rising surveillance, political uncertainty, and shifting global power.