Podcast Summary: "Evan Osnos, David Remnick and Joshua Yaffa on Trump and Russia"

Podcast: The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Date: February 27, 2017
Host: David Remnick
Guests: Evan Osnos, Joshua Yaffa

Overview

This episode delves deep into the byzantine relationship between the United States and Russia at the dawn of Donald Trump’s presidency. Editor David Remnick hosts New Yorker staff writers Evan Osnos (in Washington) and Joshua Yaffa (in Moscow) to analyze shifting moods in the Kremlin, anxieties in Washington, and the swirl of scandals—particularly Russian election interference and the resignation of national security advisor Michael Flynn. The episode dissects how both superpowers are adjusting to unexpected chaos, what’s known about Russian meddling, and where Trump’s greatest vulnerabilities may lie.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Initial Reaction in Russia to Trump’s Election

Timestamp: 01:29 – 03:07

• Euphoria in the Kremlin: Initially, Trump’s win was celebrated by Russian state media and officials as a victory that could serve Kremlin interests, including on issues like Syria, Ukraine, and the relief of US sanctions.
• Official Narrative: The Kremlin nonetheless avoided overt triumphalism, maintaining official deniability about any involvement (“this was officially and technically not Russia's victory at all” - Joshua Yaffa, 02:21).

2. The End of the Honeymoon: Russian Apprehension about Trump

Timestamp: 03:07 – 05:37

• Growing Wariness: The unpredictability of Trump—contrasting Putin's preference for stability—has made the Kremlin uneasy.
  • “Vladimir Putin seems to me to be a political figure who prizes stability...Donald Trump does not offer stability and predictability” (Evan Osnos, 03:07).
• Strategic ‘Win-Win’ for Russia: If Trump is conciliatory, Russia benefits openly; if Trump brings chaos to US policy, that too serves to destabilize America, serving Russian interests (David Remnick, 03:54).

3. Russian State Media’s Shift Post-Flynn

Timestamp: 05:37 – 06:27

• Pullback in Coverage: After Flynn’s resignation, Russian media toned down their overt celebration of Trump.
  • “Let’s cool it on Trump. Enough with the celebration” (Evan Osnos, 04:56).
• Significance of Flynn's Ouster: Seen in Russia as a pivotal event, undermining expectations that Trump could push through a pro-Russian agenda unimpeded (David Remnick, 05:37).

4. The American Intelligence and Investigation Landscape

Timestamp: 06:27 – 10:23

• Evidence of Russian Hacking: US agencies (FBI, CIA, NSA) agree on Russian interference—including hacking and disinformation—but the public declassified report lacks detailed evidence (“the picture looks quite different” from Iraq WMDs, says Joshua Yaffa, 07:18).
• Investigatory Independence: Initial skepticism about whether agencies would thoroughly investigate, but Flynn’s resignation galvanized congressional Republicans to take the inquiry more seriously, especially those who “regard themselves as institutionalists” (Joshua Yaffa, 08:44).

5. Trump’s Vulnerabilities and Investigation Focus

Timestamp: 10:45 – 13:01

• Unknowns about Financial Ties: Trump’s refusal to release his tax returns keeps many questions alive.
• Shifting Rhetoric: Trump has become increasingly legalistic about denying Russian contacts as scrutiny grows (Joshua Yaffa, 11:09).
  • Notable quote: “[Trump] started off by being very sort of flippant… Later, he began to realize… as there was more attention on this subject, he began to be a little bit more judicious” (Joshua Yaffa, 11:09).
• What’s Legally Troubling: Contact with Russians isn’t illegal; lying about such contacts or being vulnerable to blackmail is where legal and political peril lurk (Joshua Yaffa, 12:31).

6. Russian Perception of US Investigations

Timestamp: 13:01 – 14:38

• Evolving Attitude: Russians once dismissed US hacking claims with “eye rolling” but are now more apprehensive.
• Steele Dossier’s Role: Highly publicized but not entirely credible—has fueled a farcical atmosphere, but some claims are being checked out by US intelligence (David Remnick and Evan Osnos, 14:04–14:54).

7. What’s Actually True in the Steele Dossier?

Timestamp: 14:54 – 15:56

• Emerging Nuance: Initial skepticism is giving way to serious inquiry, with intelligence officers saying “the more they chase down some of the leads, the more that some of this is bearing out” (Joshua Yaffa, 14:54), although the most salacious allegations remain unproven.

8. How Will This End for Trump and for Russia?

Timestamp: 15:56 – 17:18

• Unintended Consequences for Putin: Sustained scandal in the US has made things uncomfortable for Putin—what was meant as an operation to undermine Clinton has spun into greater-than-expected scrutiny on Russia itself (David Remnick, 16:04).
  • Notable quote: “Things are now getting specific and real and durable. And that's, I think, exactly what Putin didn't want and didn't expect.” (David Remnick, 16:04)

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Trump-Putin Paradox:
  “Either [Trump] follows through on his campaign promises… and Putin is happy, or he brings a measure of turbulence and disorder to US politics, weakening and distracting the US political system.”
  – David Remnick (03:54)

• On Intelligence Community Confidence:
  “The difference here is that in 2002 and 2003, there was a deeply divided intelligence community. This time around, the picture looks quite different.”
  – Joshua Yaffa (07:18)

• On Congressional Investigation Shift:
  “This is really unusual that a national security advisor was having these kinds of contacts and then not being truthful...it has given a lift to these other processes outside the executive branch.”
  – Joshua Yaffa (08:44)

• On Russian Official Attitudes:
  “Russian officials and people close to the state... didn’t even really want to give those claims the time of day. And in a way, the dossier...almost added to the circus like atmosphere.”
  – David Remnick (13:22, 14:18)

• On Putin’s Realization:
  “You hear pretty uniformly from people in the Russian political class that the Kremlin expected Clinton to win...Trump, and therefore the sustained attention...is something they didn’t expect, bet on, or want. And now that bill is coming due.”
  – David Remnick (16:04)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Russian reaction to Trump’s win: 01:29–03:07
• Kremlin’s changing mood, Trump unpredictability: 03:07–05:37
• Flynn resignation & impact on Russian state TV: 05:37–06:27
• The US intelligence and investigation outlook: 06:27–10:23
• Trump’s personal vulnerabilities: 10:45–13:01
• Russian view of US probes and Steele dossier discussion: 13:01–15:56
• How might it end for Putin and Trump?: 15:56–17:18

Final Thoughts

This episode offers a nuanced, multi-angle look at the US-Russia relationship in early 2017, showing the erosion of Russian optimism, the seriousness with which US institutions are taking the investigation, and the uncertain terrain ahead for both Trump and Putin. The hosts’ measured, analytical tone underscores the ambiguity and gravity of the events as they unfold, making the episode a valuable resource for understanding the roots of the Trump-Russia controversies.