The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Fire, Fury, and North Korea

Date: August 11, 2017
Host: Jeffrey Toobin
Guest: John Cassidy (New Yorker Staff Writer)

Episode Overview

This episode addresses the dramatic escalation of tensions between the United States and North Korea during the summer of 2017. After President Trump's warning of “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” New Yorker staff writers Jeffrey Toobin and John Cassidy break down what these statements mean for U.S. foreign policy, the risks of military conflict, and the broader implications for global security.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Parsing Trump's “Fire and Fury” Threat

[01:48–04:49]

• Trump's Statement: “North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.”
• Analysis:
  • Cassidy notes this marks a departure from longstanding U.S. policy, where past administrations ignored North Korean threats and focused on responding to actions.
  • Cassidy: “He seemed to be saying that the U.S. would, you know, launch nuclear attack just because it was threatened. And that was obviously, if he meant it, a huge change in policy.” [03:22]
• Ambiguity:
  • The phrase was not clear—did Trump mean nuclear retaliation merely for threats? This lack of clarity intensified global concern.

2. Mixed Messages from U.S. Leadership

[04:49–06:08]

• Official Clarifications:
  • Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Secretary of Defense James Mattis both released statements attempting to clarify and temper Trump’s comments.
  • Cassidy: “Mattis was, in a way contradicting Trump by saying that we're not responding to threats, we're responding to actual actions... the crucial distinction was that this U.S. counterattack would come in response to not just a verbal threat, but some actual action.” [05:30]
• Result: The administration appeared divided, with language oscillating between extreme and measured.

3. North Korea Responds – The Guam Threat

[06:08–07:14]

• North Korea's Retaliation:
  • After Trump's warning, North Korea threatened to launch missiles towards Guam, a strategic U.S. military base in the Pacific.
  • Cassidy explains Guam’s significance as a “big US Base... home to some B1B bombers, which the US uses to fly over the Korean Peninsula.” [06:27]
• Escalation: Rather than backing down, North Korea raised the stakes further with a specific and provocative military plan.

4. U.S. Policy: Pressure and Engagement

[07:25–08:56]

• Current Approach:
  • The Trump administration promoted a dual policy of applying economic pressure (sanctions) while leaving the door open for negotiation.
  • Recent U.N. sanctions gained support from China and Russia—a diplomatic win for the White House.
  • Cassidy: “There was a sort of olive leaf out there that if North Koreans agreed to halt their missile tests, there would be the offer of negotiations… That policy didn't seem to have much impact.” [07:25]
• DIA Assessment: Reports surfaced that North Korea had likely miniaturized a nuclear warhead for an intercontinental ballistic missile—intensifying U.S. concerns.

5. The Limits and Risks of Military Action

[08:56–09:25]

• Military Strike Risks:
  • Toobin: “Any sort of American military strike will be met with missiles and artillery raining down on Seoul with catastrophic casualties.” [08:56]
  • The calculus of “fire and fury” is thus complicated by the reality that a U.S. attack would likely result in catastrophe for South Korea.

6. The Role of Sanctions and Chinese Involvement

[09:25–10:27]

• Chinese Leverage:
  • China’s agreement to stricter sanctions was a significant development, as prior measures floundered without Beijing’s support.
  • Cassidy: “The Chinese play a key role here… What was new here over the weekend was… the Chinese and the Russians agreed to vote with the US in imposing stricter sanctions.” [09:25]
• Perception of Success Undermined:
  • Cassidy notes surprise and frustration in the region, given the progress on sanctions when Trump’s rhetoric upended diplomatic momentum.

7. Kim Jong Un’s Strategic Goal

[10:58–13:12]

• North Korean Calculation:
  • Kim Jong Un’s primary goal is regime survival through acquiring a credible nuclear deterrent.
  • Cassidy: “The idea is that they just kind of carry on their own way, do everything they can to get a limited nuclear arsenal… Most people think they've actually been pretty successful with this strategy.” [11:12]
  • Offers to denuclearize have failed; North Korea is likely to remain a nuclear state.
• Policy Choices:
  • The U.S. faces a hard decision—either accept North Korea as a nuclear power and manage it like other nuclear states, or risk catastrophic conflict in a bid to force denuclearization.

8. U.S. Diplomatic Shortcomings

[13:12–13:34]

• State Department Vacancies:
  • No assistant secretary for East Asia, no U.S. ambassador to South Korea, and the top Beijing diplomat had resigned.
• Concerns:
  • Cassidy: “I think in the US Government as a whole, there are still a lot of people who understand what's going on here… The larger question is whether, you know, who's Trump listening to?” [13:34]

9. Trump’s Motivations and Style

[14:44–16:25]

• Why Such Inflammatory Language?

  • Reports suggest Trump’s remarks may have been off-the-cuff, not carefully coordinated with advisers.
  • Cassidy: “That was one of the bizarre things about this incident. He gave this very bellicose, militaristic statement at a summit on opioid addiction during his summer vacation, seated next to his wife and the Secretary of Health and Human Services, which made the whole thing look sort of surreal.” [15:13]
  • Trump later said his statements might not have been “tough enough.”

• Distraction from Russia?

  • Toobin raises speculation about whether Trump’s statements were intended to shift attention from the Russia investigation.
  • Cassidy: “If he was aiming to do that, he certainly was effective. But it only worked for a day…” [16:25]

10. What Happens Next?

[17:14–18:59]

• Upcoming Flashpoints:
  • North Korea’s announced plan to launch missiles near Guam, U.S.–South Korea military exercises set for the coming weeks.
  • Concern about possible escalation if North Korea fires missiles over Japan.
• Military Response:
  • Japan has signaled it may try to intercept missiles.
  • Cassidy: “These anti missile systems are still basically in the testing stage, so it could be that the US fire up these anti missile missiles and they miss and that would be seen as a great victory for Kim Jong Un and the North Koreans…” [18:07]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Changing U.S. Policy:
  • “He seemed to be saying that the U.S. would, you know, launch nuclear attack just because it was threatened…if he meant it, a huge change in policy.” —John Cassidy [03:22]
• On Diplomatic Confusion:
  • “The crucial distinction was that this U.S. counterattack would come in response to not just a verbal threat, but some actual action on behalf of the North Koreans.” —John Cassidy [05:30]
• On Risk of Escalation:
  • “Any sort of American military strike will be met with missiles and artillery raining down on Seoul with catastrophic casualties.” —Jeffrey Toobin [08:56]
• On Kim Jong Un’s Aims:
  • “Most people think they've actually been pretty successful with this strategy and they've succeeded a lot more rapidly than most Western analysts thought.” —John Cassidy [11:12]
• On the Uncertainty of Trump's Intentions:
  • “That's the problem with Trump. You never know for sure. He's actually come out again on Thursday afternoon and defended his own statement in another press available at the White House, saying maybe the problem with it was it wasn't tough enough. So, you know, he never admits that he's wrong.” —John Cassidy [15:18]
• On Consequences of Failure:
  • “Problem is it might not work. These anti missile systems are still basically in the testing stage, so it could be that the US fire up these anti missile missiles and they miss and that would be seen as a great victory for Kim Jong Un and the North Koreans...” —John Cassidy [18:07]

Timeline of Important Segments

| Time | Topic/Quote | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------| | 01:48-04:49 | Parsing Trump's “fire and fury” threat | | 04:49-06:08 | Tillerson/Mattis responses, official policy confusion | | 06:08-07:14 | North Korea’s Guam threat | | 07:25-08:56 | U.S. pressure-and-engage policy | | 08:56-09:25 | Military options and risks explained | | 09:25-10:27 | Sanctions, China's role | | 10:58-13:12 | Kim Jong Un’s goals and North Korea’s strategy | | 13:12-13:34 | State Department vacancies and policy impact | | 14:44-16:25 | Trump's motivations and communication style | | 17:14-18:59 | What’s next: Guam, Japan, risk of escalation |

Summary

This episode highlights the volatility of U.S.–North Korea relations during a period of brinkmanship, focusing on the uncertainty introduced by Trump's rhetoric, the danger of misunderstandings, the enduring risks of military action, and the ongoing challenge of constraining North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. With strong analysis and clear-eyed context, Toobin and Cassidy deliver a sober warning about the risks of escalation and underscore the difficulties facing U.S. policymakers as they try to navigate these perilous waters.