George Packer, Adam Davidson, and Jill Lepore on Short-Term Thinking in America

Summary

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The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: George Packer, Adam Davidson, and Jill Lepore on Short-Term Thinking in America
Host: David Remnick
Date: November 26, 2018

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the roots and consequences of short-term thinking in American politics, economics, and society. Host David Remnick is joined by New Yorker writers George Packer, Adam Davidson, and historian Jill Lepore for a nuanced discussion connecting the 2008-09 financial crisis, climate change, the erosion of public trust, and the structural features of American democracy that encourage “short-termism.” The conversation interrogates the challenges of building meaningful long-term policy solutions in a system driven by election cycles, market pressures, and cultural skepticism of expertise.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. From Financial Crisis to Political Division

Participants: David Remnick & George Packer

• Connection of 2008-09 Crisis to Trump Presidency:
  • The financial crash undermined Americans’ faith in foundational institutions—government, banks, housing, job security.
  • Rising skepticism and the search for someone to blame ("Who took it away from me?") fueled anti-elite sentiment and political polarization.
  • Memorable quote:
    • "All the things that were like the basis of middle class security were gone almost overnight for a lot of Americans... Who took it away from me?"
      — George Packer [01:46]

2. Climate Change as a Partisan Issue

Participants: David Remnick & George Packer

• Why Climate Denial Works Politically:

  • Climate change became a proxy in the culture war, originating with high-profile advocates like Al Gore.
  • It presents a “no-win” scenario: requires sacrifice, lifestyle change, and massive investment.
  • Denial provides psychological comfort—pretending it isn’t real is easier than accepting painful solutions.
  • Notable moments:
    • "It just became in the tribal political world, we live in another way to bash them," George Packer on how climate change deniers see the issue as a way to 'stick it to liberals' [02:54].
    • "Wouldn't it be wonderful if you could just convince yourself that it was a hoax?" — Packer [03:36]

• Public Attitudes Outside Coastal Cities:

  • Example of Dean Price, a rural entrepreneur who supports some green ideas but views climate science with skepticism.
  • Even those open to innovation may resist the overwhelming implications of climate change.

3. The Limits of Political Action & Bipartisanship

Participants: David Remnick & George Packer

• Necessity of Broad Political Buy-In:
  • Highlighted Ryan Costello, a Republican acknowledging climate change, as evidence that bipartisan engagement is essential.
  • The deep divide means “single party” solutions are infeasible; collective action is necessary.
• Admission of Irreversibility:
  • Remnick: "It's too late in certain respects... what we could have done 20 years ago is now an opportunity lost." [06:19]
  • Anticipating adaptation, not prevention: moving communities, building seawalls, facing migration and eroded sympathies.

4. Conspiracy Theories and Erosion of Trust

Participants: David Remnick & George Packer

• The Contagion of Suspicion:
  • Climate change denial builds on the erosion of trust post-Iraq war and financial crisis; once expertise is discredited in one area, it spreads.
  • "Climate change might be the original conspiracy theory of our time...that kind of softened up the ground for all the others." — George Packer [07:47]

5. The Political System’s Structural Myopia

Participants: David Remnick & Adam Davidson

• Barriers to Long-Term Action:
  • The presidency is critical for large-scale change, especially on issues like climate.
  • There’s rarely a decisive "do it now or disaster" moment for slow-moving crises; the lack of urgency stymies action.
  • Contrast with Financial Crisis:
    • Adam Davidson: "Henry Paulson had something that we don’t have yet with the environmental crisis. He had a day...he was able to get everyone into a room and say, if you do X, Y, and Z, we will save the world. If you don’t, the world will end." [10:34]
    • Climate change lacks such "sharp and specific" urgency in the public eye.

6. Historical and Structural Roots of Short-Termism

Participants: David Remnick & Jill Lepore

• Constitutional and Electoral Incentives:

  • Lepore argues only the Constitution is a true long-term plan; everything else is short-range and election-driven.
  • Lasting change (civil rights, lynching) usually comes from outside elected officials: activism, private sector, social movements, journalism.
  • "The nature of our public conversation about climate change really hasn't happened yet, but there's no reason it can't happen now." — Jill Lepore [14:18]

• Paths Forward:

  • Carbon tax seen as rational, possible without constitutional amendment—requires a shared sense of purpose and cross-partisan effort.
  • Example: federal income tax took decades, carbon tax could too but needs broad buy-in.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "All the things that were like the basis of middle class security were gone almost overnight for a lot of Americans... Who took it away from me?" — George Packer [01:46]
• "It just became in the tribal political world, we live in another way to bash them." — George Packer on the politicization of climate change [02:54]
• "Wouldn't it be wonderful if you could just convince yourself that it was a hoax?" — George Packer [03:36]
• "Climate change might be the original conspiracy theory of our time...that kind of softened up the ground for all the others." — George Packer [07:47]
• "There is no real solution without having an American president who embraces the necessity for that change." — Adam Davidson [09:35]
• "Only the Constitution is our really only long term plan. Everything else is running for office, Everything else is election driven. Everything else has an incredibly short time horizon." — Jill Lepore [12:35]
• "The nature of our public conversation about climate change really hasn't happened yet, but there's no reason it can't happen now." — Jill Lepore [14:18]
• "Common purpose and shared burden. If we leave you with any takeaways from this program today, let it be those." — David Remnick [15:27]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Linking financial crisis and Trump presidency: [01:16–01:46]
• Climate denial as politics & lived experiences of climate skepticism: [02:24–04:39]
• Consequence of inaction & adaptation vs mitigation: [06:19–07:23]
• Propagation of conspiracy thinking: [07:23–08:40]
• Barriers to solutions: presidency, urgency, and collective action: [08:43–11:23]
• Historical roots of short-term thinking, prospects for change: [12:00–15:27]

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Conclusion

The episode synthesizes a sharp critique: American democracy—by design and practice—too often encourages short-term thinking over the collective, long-term action needed for challenges like climate change. Economic shocks, political partisanship, and conspiracy thinking have eroded public trust in expertise and institutions. Facing these issues demands a renewed sense of shared purpose and an embrace of systemic solutions, drawing inspiration from social movements, private innovation, and bipartisan cooperation.

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Transcript

[A]

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[B]

This is the Politics and More podcast. I'm David Remnick. George Packer is the author of the book the Unwinding. He's thought as deeply about America and why we find ourselves divided so sharply and as anyone writing today. So George, you've spent a lot of time thinking about, reporting on, writing about the 2008, 2009 financial crisis. What is the link between that epochal event, the financial crisis, and the Trump presidency?

[C]

I think it's a fairly straight line because the financial crisis destroyed large numbers of middle class people's faith in government, in banks, in the housing market, in their retirement funds, in job security. All the things that were like the basis of middle class security were gone almost overnight for a lot of Americans. And it created a sense of what do I have to do to have a good life here I thought I was doing everything right and it's all been taken away. Who took it away from me?

[B]

George One of the things we're looking at is the connections between the financial crisis and climate change. Climate change is one of the irreversible aspects of the Trump presidency. He pulled us out of the Paris Accord. He has infused his party with disbelief in science and the conclusions of scientists. It's also an issue that Trump uses as a wedge. Why is climate change denialism a winning political issue for the party and for him?

[C]

I think for two reasons. One, it's a great way to stick it to liberals. Al Gore was the first major spokesman in politics sounding the alarm bell. What a great target for a Republican politician. And so it just became in the tribal political world, we live in another way to bash them. But it also is ideal because climate change is just an entire loser for everybody. It just means you have to give things up. It means you have to change your lifestyle. You can't drive the car you want. You can't use the amount of energy you want.

[B]

You have to spend trillions of dollars to ameliorate the situation.

[C]

Climate change. Exactly. To build climate change comes build seawalls, et cetera. Wouldn't it be wonderful if you could just convince yourself that it was a hoax?

[B]

Well, when you were traveling and it wasn't just in Florida, you were all over the country to report this book, and you've reported from all over the country for the New Yorker years. How do people talk about climate change that are not in Brooklyn or San Francisco or wherever you might be?

[C]

Well, I'll give you an example. One of the main characters in the Unwinding is a guy named Dean Price, who's a North Carolina biodiesel entrepreneur who really believed that the depressed rural economy of North Carolina would be brought back by making diesel fuel out of canola on former tobacco fields. So he had an environmental vision. But when we. When I asked him about global warming, he said, you know, maybe you're the one who believes in magic, because you don't. Do you understand the science of it? Are you enough of a scientist? And I had to admit, no, I'm trusting scientists who do have the credentials.

[B]

You didn't know how to get to the moon either.

[C]

Right, right. But I trust them that they know what they're talking about. And he was sort of impeaching me for being credulous about science. And I thought, well, Dean believes in science. Why is he making an exception on this issue?

[B]

Because it's exceptionally painful.

[C]

I think it's just too much for us to take in. And you and I don't really take it. I mean, if we lived every day of our lives thinking about this all the time, it would be so paralyzing, and we'd be so unable to turn a light switch on that life would be untenable.

[B]

When you look at the wreckage of 2008, 2009, and you look at our current politics and then head to what's in store for climate change nationally and globally. What's to be done in the real world of politics? What's the way out? Is there a way out?

[C]

So not long ago, I wrote a piece for the magazine about Ryan Costello, who's a Republican from Pennsylvania, retiring from Congress young, who, who's a conservative about many things, voted for the tax cut. But on global warming, he is quite adamant that we have to do something about carbon emissions, et cetera. I don't know all of his policy views, but for him this issue is crucial. And obviously for his constituents in suburban Philadelphia who know about it and who believe in it, Republicans like him need to get some foothold in their own party. We cannot have a single party addressing this issue. It has to be the whole country. And as you're telling me, 30 to 40% of Americans don't believe in man made climate change.

[B]

But what I'm also telling you, and it's a horrendous thing to say, is too late. Too late in certain respects. I mean, it's never too late to ameliorate the situation and to do better than we could. But in many ways, what we could have done 20 years ago is now an opportunity lost.

[C]

You're right. You're right. So we'll end up doing what? Moving communities away from the coasts, building seawalls, trying to find answers to hurricanes.

[B]

And facing problems of whether or not this country is still capable of or wants to help the poor in other.

[C]

Parts of the world, which is at this point unthinkable. I mean, we won't.

[B]

And that's a. Yeah, the worst.

[C]

And they will want to come here and to Europe, as they do now, but in greater numbers. And our sympathies will be even more corroded because we'll be struggling with things ourselves and our politicians will be telling us we can't afford it and we don't want them. And it's a pretty dark picture, George.

[B]

We've heard conspiracy theories having to do with the financial crisis, its origins, and the way we went about trying to fix it. We've heard now conspiracy theories for decades about the truth or falseness of climate change. Does one conspiracy theory feed on itself, lead to the next one? Does it erode matters?

[C]

Yeah, I think once you've assured yourself that the experts don't know what they're talking about because they got the Iraq war wrong and they got the economy wrong, and they got all kinds of things wrong, then, sure, why not? Everything, including the hardest thing, which is climate change. Climate change might be the original conspiracy theory of our time. Obviously, there have been legions in the past, but the original one of our time, that kind of softened up the ground for all the others, because it really did begin with the Republican Party under George W. Bush mocking Al Gore and the other ringers of the alarm bell. So that made it thinkable that everything else that the experts say might be wrong.

[B]

George Packer, thank you.

[C]

Thank you, David.

[B]

Politics, our economy and our environment, they're all interconnected. And what we're seeing here is that we can't fix any one of these things without tackling all three to some extent. Adam Davidson, our financial reporter, is with us. Adam, we have the president that we have at least for another couple of years, and whose attitude toward the financial system, whose attitude toward climate change is what it is, and it is unlikely to change. It's unlikely to change what can be done right now, whether it has to do with the financial system, which we've been discussing, or climate change and their interaction that could cause us to be setting a better course. And certainly without Trump in the picture, after two years, what could be done to set a better course? You mentioned, of course, carbon tax, what else?

[D]

So, first of all, I think that the American presidency is a uniquely powerful office, and there is no real solution without having an American president who embraces the necessity for that change. There's some opportunities to build coalitions between the U.S. and civil society and Europe and China, and the citizens have to take this on ourselves, and not just by marching, although marching is not a problem, but by really fleshing out the tangible solutions. We've seen that in other areas. We've seen that in the civil rights struggle. We've seen that in the gay rights struggle. We've seen that in a million areas.

[B]

Where the frustration, of course, is in the civil rights struggle. You had a president who was susceptible to pressure, that the march on Selma happened, the violence in Selma happened, and it affected Lyndon Johnson, and Lyndon Johnson was able to leverage that in Congress. You don't have that political situation now.

[D]

To me, the fundamental difference between the financial crisis and the environmental crisis comes down to that. With the financial crisis, Henry Paulson had something that we don't have yet with the environmental crisis. He had a day, it was a Thursday morning, where he was able to get the. The leaders of Congress he was able to get everyone into a room and say, if you do X, Y and Z, we will save the world. If you don't, the world will end. Your call. And it was sharp and specific, and the pressure was unimaginable.

[B]

The difference is that when we see hurricanes in Florida, when we see the southern tip of Manhattan practically underwater, we can somehow. Or if the politicians are like Donald Trump, they can somehow flip it around and say that this has nothing to do with climate change.

[D]

Yeah. And by then it's too late. I mean, I think a lot of people see the recent UN report, a lot of people see the hurricane season as we're there now, we are getting the message, it's time, but not enough people are getting that. And it's not gonna come down to this decision on this day. And what we seem to know is politicians and lots of people are not good at taking important action about the future unless there is that kind of signal. Do it today or we all die.

[B]

Adam Davidson is a staff writer at the New Yorker. We've been looking at the financial crisis of 2008, the ongoing climate crisis, and how those things are somehow connected. Now, to get the long view on this, the really long view, we turn to Jill Lepore. Jill is a staff writer at the magazine and a historian at Harvard University, and she's just written a big excellent history of the United States. These truths, in Jill's view, this kind of short term thinking that we've been talking about and complaining about is no accident. It's actually baked into our democracy.

[E]

The federal Constitution is our really only long term plan. Everything else is running for office, Everything else is election driven. Everything else has an incredibly short time horizon. When there has been more long term planning, it's come from people who don't hold elected office. So thinking about maybe, you know, Alexander Hamilton's economic planning in the 1790s, which is a kind of blueprint for economic development in the new nation that is going to take decades to really see results. Long term planning comes from other sources. It can come from party strategists, it can come from cabinet members, it can come from social movements. Think about the campaign to end lynching takes decades and decades and decades and decades. And it takes change coming from all quarters. It takes muckraking journalism, it takes rallies, it takes marches, it takes legislative act after legislative act, but it also takes a very big public conversation and a reckoning with the costs and a sense of what it does to all of us to live in a world of violence and that kind of stirring, massive political change. The nature of our public conversation about climate change really hasn't happened yet, but there's no reason it can't happen now. But with climate change, you know, as Adam suggests, if there isn't a single moment, an hour of a particular day on a calendar year where the disaster is suddenly witnessed and illuminated and the urgency is suddenly manifest, then really, I think you're maybe looking to sources of change that are outside of federal government. I mean, I guess reform within the private sector would be the place where you can most easily imagine long term planning in the national interest that also happens to align with the interests of every corporation making some headway. So a carbon tax is a really important proposal for addressing climate change. A very rational proposal. And you can consider the federal income tax. A graduated federal income tax was a very rational idea that took decades to earn the support that it needed to go to Congress and then to go to the states for education required a constitutional amendment. Carbon tax doesn't require a constitutional amendment. It requires a sense of common purpose and it requires reaching across different political constituencies so that people can understand our shared, if unequal, burden.

[B]

Common purpose and shared burden. If we leave you with any takeaways from this program today, let it be those. Jill Lepore is the author of these A New History of the United States, and she's a staff writer for the New Yorker.

[A]

America is changing, and so is the world.

[B]

But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[A]

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[C]

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