Podcast Summary: The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: George Packer and Dexter Filkins on Diplomacy with Iran
Date: September 29, 2013
Host: Amelia Lester (in for Dorothy Wickenden)
Guests: George Packer, Dexter Filkins

Overview

This episode centers on a rare moment in U.S.-Iran relations: the first direct conversation between American and Iranian presidents since 1979. Following President Obama’s phone call with Iran’s President Rouhani and diplomatic developments at the UN, New Yorker staff writers George Packer and Dexter Filkins join Amelia Lester to analyze the significance of these diplomatic overtures, the internal dynamics of Iranian politics, and Iran's decisive role in the Syrian civil war. The discussion weaves through the prospect for a nuclear deal, the influence of Iran’s hardliners and the Revolutionary Guard, and the strategic stakes across the Middle East.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Diplomatic Breakthroughs at the UN

• Historic Phone Call:

  • President Obama and President Rouhani spoke by phone, signaling a potential thaw in U.S.-Iranian relations ([01:31]).
  • Secretary of State John Kerry met with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.

• Perceptions in the Room:

  • Dexter Filkins noted the optimistic and confident tone at Rouhani’s UN event:

    “He seemed very relaxed and very confident and optimistic... Javad Zarif... was buoyant. I mean, he could not have been. I mean, he was beaming... just kind of walking on air.” ([02:33])

  • Yet, Filkins expressed skepticism about real progress:

    “It left me slightly pessimistic about how far these things are actually going to go.” ([02:33])

2. Is Rouhani a True Moderate or a Rebranding?

• Rouhani’s Position:

  • Filkins distinguishes Rouhani from predecessors but says real power lies with the Supreme Leader:

    “There’s a great struggle between genuine reformers and the real hardliners... The supreme Leader... is basically going to make this call.” ([04:05])

  • Western sanctions have prompted Iranian leaders to seek relief, but Filkins doubts Rouhani's freedom to deliver substantive change.

• Packer on Rouhani’s Credentials:

  • Rouhani is described as a pragmatist and a dealmaker with moderate but not liberal credentials. He may have more trust from the Supreme Leader than past reformers like Khatami, offering a window for diplomacy:

    “This may be the best chance we’re going to get for a very long time... Khatami... turned out just not to have the authority... Rouhani may have more of the confidence of the supreme Leader...” ([04:51])

3. Iranian Domestic Politics: Pressures and Constraints

• Urgency for Results:
  • George Packer stresses Rouhani’s need to show results quickly:

    “He recognizes he has to start to get sanctions lifted... it’s the only thing he will have to show the hardliners... He’s giving up a lot, even just talking to Americans.” ([06:42])

  • The window for negotiation is small, dictated by Iranian internal politics.

4. Profiling Qasem Soleimani and the Quds Force

• Quds Force’s Role:
  • The Quds Force, led by Qasem Soleimani, is described by Filkins as a blend of CIA and Special Forces—tasked with executing Iran’s regional interventions ([08:09]).
  • Soleimani and his generation's worldview is shaped by the Iran-Iraq War, reinforcing Iran’s siege mentality and aggressive tactics:

    “The Iranians…were formed not merely by the revolution, but by the Iran-Iraq War... They see it as Iran vs. the West.” ([08:09])

5. Iranian Influence in Syria

• Turning the Tide for Assad:

  • Filkins details how Iranian military aid and direct involvement, orchestrated by Soleimani, have been decisive in bolstering the Assad regime amidst civil war:

    “There was a huge upturn, and you started seeing planes coming in again from Tehran full of Revolutionary Guard officers, Quds Force officers, weapons, ammunition, supplies, money, everything... that has really turned the tide for Assad this year.” ([09:44])

• Public Denial vs. Actual Involvement:

  • Despite Iran’s denials of involvement, Filkins underscores the contrast between official statements and their real actions:

    “Some Iranian officials were quoted as saying, all we have in Damascus are military attaches at our embassy. We don't have anyone else there.” ([11:03])

6. Will Iran Sacrifice Assad?

• Assad Not a ‘Red Line’:
  • George Packer cites a Rouhani ally suggesting Iran could “trade away Assad” if it suits their interests, especially in light of global condemnation over chemical weapons:

    “Assad may well become a burden not worth keeping, especially if his chemical weapons arsenal is truly secured...” ([11:19])

  • However, Iran’s core interests (notably supporting Hezbollah) mean it will not withdraw from Syria itself.

7. Strategic Stakes: Hezbollah, Regional Balance, and Sunni Jihadism

• Axis of Resistance:

  • Filkins and Packer explain Iran’s strategy to maintain a land corridor through Iraq and Syria to support Hezbollah in Lebanon:

    “Hezbollah is basically an aircraft carrier, an Iranian aircraft carrier that sits off the coast of Israel…” ([13:22])

• Containment of Sunni Jihadist Groups:

  • Packer highlights the Iranian regime’s fear of a failed Syrian state being overrun by Sunni extremists, which is both a threat and a rare point of common interest with the United States:

    “For them to allow Syria to devolve into chaos… is just inconceivable. And that’s a place where we and they have a common interest.” ([14:30])

8. Iran's Internal Divide and the Prospect for a Deal

• Will Rouhani Overcome the Hardliners?

  • The panel agrees Iran’s split leadership could be a dealbreaker:

    “There seem to be these two distinct camps. How are we going to be able to tell if Rouhani is actually making headway with the hardliners...?” ([16:27])

  • Packer compares the situation to the failure at Camp David, suggesting the process may fail if internal consensus is absent:

    “That moment may come very soon because the solution of the nuclear problem isn't a mathematical puzzle… It's been a problem of the will on both sides.” ([16:45])

• What’s at Stake for Obama:

  • Packer positions a nuclear deal as a legacy-defining achievement for Obama and Kerry:

    “This would be a major achievement... Obama and Kerry are going to do everything in their power to make it happen. The ball really is in Iran’s court on this...” ([16:45])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the change in Iranian leadership style:

  “All you have to do is think back to the year after year of Ahmadinejad’s carnival coming into town and realize that something has changed pretty dramatically in Iran’s posture toward the world.”
  — George Packer [05:43]

• On Rouhani's room for maneuver:

  “Clearly Rouhani has been given some kind of authority to make some kind of deal. And I think the reason for that... is because the Western sanctions on Iran have been so painful.”
  — Dexter Filkins [04:05]

• On Soleimani's worldview:

  “The Iranian worldview of the people who run that country now was formed not merely by the revolution, but by the Iran-Iraq War... one of the bloodiest wars of the 20th century.”
  — Dexter Filkins [08:09]

• On possible outcomes:

  “The solution of the nuclear problem isn't a mathematical puzzle. Everyone knows how to solve the problem. It's been a problem of the will on both sides.”
  — George Packer [16:45]

Important Timestamps

• 01:31 – President Obama’s phone call with President Rouhani discussed
• 02:33 – Dexter Filkins describes the atmosphere at Rouhani’s UN appearance
• 04:05 – Is Rouhani a genuine moderate?
• 06:42 – Why Rouhani is pushing for a quick nuclear deal
• 08:09 – Explanation of Quds Force and Soleimani’s significance
• 09:44 – Iranian military support’s impact on the Syrian civil war
• 13:22 – Iran’s “axis of resistance” and core regional strategy
• 14:30 – Threats to Iran from Sunni jihadism and failed states
• 16:45 – The test of Rouhani’s ability to manage hardliners and implications for a nuclear deal

Conclusion

This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s complex internal and external politics at a rare diplomatic crossroads. The nuanced discussion explores both the fleeting possibilities for nuclear diplomacy and the deeply entrenched regional and ideological realities that may undermine it. For listeners keen to understand the stakes and challenges of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as well as the entwined fates of Syria, Hezbollah, and the broader Middle East, this episode is densely informative, offering clear-eyed skepticism balanced with recognition of the historic moment.