Hendrik Hertzberg and John Cassidy discuss the first debate.

Summary

The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Hendrik Hertzberg and John Cassidy Discuss the First Debate
Air Date: October 5, 2012
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: Hendrik (Rick) Hertzberg and John Cassidy

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Episode Overview

In this special post-debate episode, executive editor Dorothy Wickenden speaks with New Yorker writers Hendrik Hertzberg and John Cassidy about the first 2012 presidential debate between President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. The discussion centers on Romney’s strong performance, Obama’s lackluster showing, and the tactical dynamics at play. The trio dissect the impact on the campaign, the emotional undercurrents of the candidates, the strategic gaps in Obama’s replies, and the broader implications for the weeks ahead.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Immediate Reactions: A Bad Night for Obama, a Good Night for Romney

• Romney’s Performance Surprises
  • John Cassidy calls it “a very bad night for the president and a very good night for Romney” (01:53).
  • Romney appeared well-prepared, fluent, and avoided previous mistakes.
  • Obama seemed unprepared, passive, and disengaged.
• Emotional and Intellectual Dynamic
  • Rick: “This was as comprehensive a victory in a debate as any I’ve ever seen, really. And largely it was a matter of the body language, the debate on an emotional level, and weirdly on the intellectual level too.” (02:50)
  • Romney looked “like he was having a good time,” while Obama “looked tired, he looked anxious…he kept looking down at his notes.” (03:38)

2. Body Language and Missed Opportunities

• Romney vs. Obama on Stage
  • Romney was “not nervous, he was respectful…he managed to make his critique…without any kind of disrespect or anger.” (03:38)
  • Obama failed to seize clear openings to challenge Romney, prompting Rick to reference Chris Matthews: “What was he doing? Studying up for some future debate?” (03:38)
• Consequences for Democratic Morale
  • Rick raises concern about “a devastating effect on Democratic morale” following the debate (06:09).
  • John argues Democrats “always seem to be a bit over-pessimistic,” pointing out no single debate has historically been a decisive game-changer (06:41).

3. The “Bounce” and Electoral Implications

• Short-Term Gains for Romney
  • John: “I would imagine that Romney will get a bounce maybe two or three points in the national polls. But…what’s more important is what happens in the key marginal states like Florida and Virginia…” (04:52)
• Strategic Shifts in Battleground States
  • The true test will be whether opinion shifts in states crucial to Romney’s path, like Nevada or Wisconsin.

4. Fact-Checking and Framing

• Romney’s “Whoppers”
  • John: “Romney did say a few whoppers. I didn’t think [the deficit] was the biggest whopper…His biggest whopper…was saying that his health care [plan]…insurers won’t be able to stop people having insurance because of pre-existing conditions. That’s pretty much an outright lie…” (07:53–08:38)
• Obama’s Strategy of Restraint
  • Obama “clearly had taken a decision” not to attack Romney on Bain Capital, the 47% video, his 14% tax rate, tying him to the Bush administration, etc. (06:41, 12:35)

5. Romney’s Repositioning and Obama’s Weaknesses

• Bipartisanship and Flexibility
  • Rick: “Romney’s strength is he has no particular ideology. His core belief is that he should be president and that he would know what to do. The particulars? He has no particular belief one way or the other…” (09:14)
  • Romney’s self-portrayal as a bipartisan leader was “the most dangerous opponent that Obama could face.”
• Obama’s Inability to Tout Achievements
  • Rick criticizes Obama’s failure to “emphasize the fact that he’s a Democrat,” or defend his record on the economy, health care, and rescuing General Motors (10:39).
  • Dorothy: “It’s as if rescuing General Motors…” (11:13)

6. Policy Narratives and Missed Punchlines

• On Social Security and “Trickle Down Government”
  • Rick: “When Romney used the phrase ‘trickle down government,’ a brilliant attempt to turn a Democratic trope…to his own advantage, why didn’t Obama say, ‘What do you mean by that?...Social Security is something people earn over a lifetime of work…’” (11:35)
  • Obama instead said, “I believe we agree about Social Security,” failing to distinguish positions (12:04).

7. Two Visions—Or Not?

• Competing Definitions of Government
  • Dorothy: “In the end, it really was about two starkly different visions about the role of the government in the lives of Americans…What is Obama’s view? Is this part of the problem that he is afraid to come out and just say what he believes?” (13:10)
  • Rick: “Everyone…said that these were two clearly articulated visions…Actually, Romney presented a very different view of the role of government from the usual right-wing palaver…he essentially presented himself as the liberal in the race, something he can afford to do because of the party he comes from. And he left Obama stranded out on a kind of technocratic crag, unable to climb down.” (13:31)

8. The Path Forward

• Obama Needs to “Act Like He’s Up for the Fight”
  • John: “Obama’s in a race now. He’s going to have to act like he’s up for the fight and prepare properly for the next debate and really look like he wants to be reelected…” (14:25)
  • Rick: “I think what Romney did was he prevented a catastrophe…That performance rescued his party. So…for whatever heresies he committed last night…he has rescued his party and they are going to be grateful and loyal to him for that.” (14:59)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• John Cassidy, On Debate Aftermath (01:53):
  “What we saw last night was a very bad night for the president and a very good night for Romney…Obama…just didn’t really seem up for the fight.”
• Rick, On Romney’s Debate Strategy (02:50):
  “This was as comprehensive a victory in a debate as any I’ve ever seen, really.”
• Rick, On Obama’s Body Language (03:38):
  “Romney looked like he was having a good time. Obama looked like he was having a bad time…He kept looking down at his notes.”
• John Cassidy, On the Bounce (04:52):
  “I would imagine that Romney will get a bounce maybe two or three points in the national polls…what’s more important is what happens in the key marginal states…”
• Rick, On Democratic Morale (06:09):
  “What worries me the most is that this will have a devastating effect on Democratic morale.”
• John Cassidy, On Obama Avoiding Attacks (06:41):
  “He clearly had taken a decision that Obama wasn’t going to attack Romney on things like Bain capital, the 47%, his 14% tax rate. He just didn’t bring any of those things up.”
• Rick, On Romney’s Ideology (09:14):
  “Romney’s strength is he has no particular ideology. His core belief is that he should be president…He has no particular belief one way or the other, except a generalized belief in business.”
• Rick, On Romney’s Liberal Presentation (13:31):
  “He essentially presented himself as the liberal in the race, something he can afford to do because of the party he comes from. And he left Obama stranded out on a kind of technocratic crag, unable to climb down.”
• John Cassidy, On the Road Ahead (14:25):
  “Obama’s in a race now. He’s going to have to act like he’s up for the fight and prepare properly for the next debate and really look like he wants to be reelected president.”
• Rick, On the Significance of Romney’s Rescue (14:59):
  “That performance rescued his party. So…for whatever heresies he committed last night…he has rescued his party and they are going to be grateful and loyal to him for that.”

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Important Timestamps

• 01:53 – John Cassidy’s immediate post-debate analysis
• 02:50 – Rick on the debate as a “comprehensive victory”
• 03:38 – Body language critique of both candidates
• 04:52 – John on Romney’s expected poll bounce
• 06:09 – Rick on the effect on Democratic morale
• 06:41 – Obama’s tactical choices and debate history
• 07:53–08:38 – Cassidy on Romney’s factual misstatements, especially on health care
• 09:14 – Rick on Romney’s lack of core ideology
• 11:35 – Missed opportunity on “trickle down government”
• 13:31 – The paradox of Romney presenting as a liberal
• 14:25 – John on the new campaign dynamic post-debate
• 14:59 – Rick on Romney's rescue of his campaign (and party)

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Summary

This episode delivers a sharp, measured dissection of a debate that re-energized the 2012 campaign. Romney's surprising command and Obama’s passivity shift both narrative and morale, leaving Democratic supporters anxious about momentum. The panel highlights not only the tactical missteps but also the importance of narrative framing and candidate posture. As both strategists and storytellers, Hertzberg and Cassidy offer listeners a nuanced understanding of political theater at a critical crossroads in the race.

Transcript

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about Politics. It's Thursday, October 4th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. President Obama and Mitt Romney met last night in the first of three presidential debates. Here's Romney on the role We're a.

[Hendrick Hertzberg]

Nation that believes that we're all children of the same God, and we care for those that have difficulties, those that are elderly and have problems and challenges, those that are disabled. We care for them.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Hendrick Hertzberg and John Cassidy are here to talk about the debate and the coming weeks of the race. John the public saw a different Mitt Romney last night than they did even a few weeks ago. How has he reshaped his message?

[John Cassidy]

Well, I think what we saw last night was a very bad night for the president and a very good night for Romney. However you cut it, the debate on both sides seems to be whether it was a bad night for Obama, a very bad night, or an outright disaster. I'm sort of in the middle. I think it was a pretty bad night for him, but not necessarily fatal. Romney did a lot better than expected. Clearly he'd put a lot of effort into preparation. You could tell that throughout it seemed whatever subject Jim Lehrer brought up, Romney had a set of responses prepared. But he prepared them so well that not all of them sounded canned. Obama, on the other hand, seemed to me as if he hadn't prepared very well for it at all. He didn't seem as if he had command of the issues like he usually does. He didn't have the ability to come back at Romney when Romney made some pretty outrageous statements. And he generally just didn't really seem up for the fight. So, you know, I think you do have to say it was a good night for Romney and a bad one for the President.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Rick, I assume you agree with that.

[Rick]

Alas, I do, yeah. This was as comprehensive a victory in a debate as any I've ever seen, really. And largely it was a matter of the body language, the debate on an emotional level, and weirdly on the intellectual level too.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Just to interrupt you for a second, what do you mean on the emotional level? Because one thing I thought was that both of them reinforced people's impressions of them as removed, sort of dry, intellectually removed from the concerns of average voters. You know, Romney was out there with his PowerPoint presentation, perfectly prepared, crisp delivery, and you know, Obama was, you know, sort of checking off his points and desperately trying to answer Romney's charges. But both of them, to me, the emotion was absent.

[Rick]

Well, Romney looked like he was having a good time. Obama looked like he was having a bad time. Romney was not nervous, he was respectful. He managed to make his critique of Obama without any kind of disrespect or anger. Obama looked uncomfortable. He, he looked tired, he looked anxious. What he didn't look at was his opponent. He kept looking down at his notes. As Chris Matthews said later. What was he doing? Studying up for some future debate?

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Yeah. Or cramming for an exam. Belatedly well.

[Rick]

And it's a sign that his mind isn't fully engaged, that he's. You can't both make notes and listen to what your opponent is saying at the same time. And as a result, he missed opportunity after opportunity to come back. If he had been on his game, this would not have been one sided. But it was.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

John, just yesterday everyone was saying that it would be very hard for Romney to bounce back given his somewhat lackluster campaign throughout and a few very bad weeks for him. Today, of course, everyone, including you guys, are talking about how Obama will recover. Is this just the usual postmortems by the punditry or are we going to see something quite different in the coming weeks?

[John Cassidy]

I actually said I thought Romney might have a good night. I wasn't just being contrarian. I think the whole event was set up for Romney in the sort of expectations game. He's had such a terrible two or three months that even a reasonable performance would have been seen as a success. And he gave a pretty, you know, a good performance, maybe a very good performance. He was very fluent. He didn't make any obvious errors and as Rick said, he didn't come across as hectoring, which is often the mistake. You know, people who go over the top and it's debate makes so, you know, can Obama bounce back? Before we answer that question, I think we need to see what the impact of the debate is. It is only one debate. The instant polls showed that Romney won pretty easily but obviously they won't be polling on the overall effect of it for, you know, several days. I would imagine that Romney will get a bounce maybe two or three points in the national polls. But at this stage what's more important is what happens in the key marginal states like Florida and Virginia and some of the states which have been leaning more heavily to Obama, which Romney needs to win, like Nevada or Wisconsin. If they start to shift as a result of this debate, then obviously it's a very big deal. But before we all start suggesting that the Obama campaign should panic, we need to wait a bit for a couple of days and see what happens.

[Rick]

I think the big question here is not so much whether the generals that General Obama and General Romney can repeat what they did this time or avoid repeating it as the case may be, but the effect on the armies. The narrative, to use the vogue word of the moment of this campaign since the conventions was the recovery of Democratic morale and the decline of Republican morale. And I think what worries me the most is that this will have a devastating effect on Democratic morale.

[John Cassidy]

Democrats always seem to be a bit over pessimistic to me. I mean they always think they're going to lose because in the past they've, they have, they have lost a lot. So you know, there's a tendency on the Democratic side to say you're just one sort of slip up away from defeat. You know, I don't think we can ignore what's happened in the last six months. If you look back at history, it is quite hard to look at debates which completely swung things around, which is what would be needed in this case. And it's not one debate. Remember, there are three presidential plus a vice presidential debate. It's inconceivable to me that Obama will be as listless as he was in this debate. I mean, they clearly had taken a decision that Obama wasn't going to attack Romney on things like Bain capital, the 47%, his 14% tax rate. He just didn't bring any of those things up. Those are obvious things to do and I'm sure he'll do it, you know, in debates two and three. People are going to be expecting more of Romney in those debates as well because it turns out he is a good debater. And remember, he was actually a pretty good debater in the GOP primaries too. So it's a good day for Romney. But you know, it doesn't mean he's now heading for the Oval Office, I don't think.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And does it matter, John, when these candidates don't tell the truth? You know, I was struck by Romney's statement about the deficit doubling under the president. How off is that?

[John Cassidy]

Well, it depends. You know, obviously they fudge the facts. Romney did say a few whoppers. I didn't think that was the biggest whopper. He said he did say the deficit had doubled. It depends how you count it.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

So what was his biggest whopper?

[John Cassidy]

I think his biggest whopper specifically was saying that his health care. I mean, that was one of the amazing exchanges.

[Hendrick Hertzberg]

I like the way we did it in Massachusetts. I like the fact that in my state we had Republicans and Democrats come together and work together. What you did instead, taxes 19 times. What would you do as president? As president, I will sit down on day one. Actually, the day after I get elected, I'll sit down with leaders, the Democratic leaders as well as Republican leaders and continue as we did in my state.

[John Cassidy]

First of all, I think Governor Romney is going to have a busy first day because he's also going to repeal.

[Hendrick Hertzberg]

Obamacare, which will not be very popular.

[John Cassidy]

Among Democrats as you're sitting down with him. Romney came out and said, look, under my health care plan, insurers won't be able to stop people having insurance because of pre existing conditions. That's pretty much an outright lie. He has got a proposal which is meant to address that, but there's nowhere in his proposal where he just says to the insurance companies, you, you can't ban somebody because they've got a pre existing condition.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Well, John, in addition to that, and Rick, you too. One of the things that was going on in that exchange was Romney presenting himself as A great bipartisan leader. Rick, were you struck by that and Obama's inability to come back?

[Rick]

I was. And I think this was what has made Romney all along the most dangerous opponent that Obama could face. For a long time it looked like a weakness to a lot of people because when he was running in the Republican primaries, he had to run away from that. He had to run away from that record. Record. He had to run away from being a moderate. He had to run away from having cooperated with Democrats. He had to run away from his own health plan. Now he, as of last night, he's fully embracing all of that. He's exactly the candidate the Democrats feared all along and had deluded themselves into thinking that Romney had transformed himself into a kind of Jim DeMint. Romney's strength is he has no particular ideology. His core belief is that he should be president and that he would know what to do. The particulars. He has no particular belief one way or the other, except a generalized belief in business and that the business of America is business.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Rick, this gets at something that we've been talking about for almost four years now, which is Obama's inability to really clearly lay out what he has succeeded in doing. He didn't do that last night. He didn't do it very well in his convention speech. Bill Clinton did. Did Obama learn nothing from the way that Clinton was able to run down all of the accomplishments that the Democrats have had on the economy, among other things under Bill Clinton?

[Rick]

He was unable to do that. He didn't do that. It's as if he had decided in advance not to emphasize the fact that he's a Democrat, not to emphasize that there are profound differences between Democrats and Republicans, and not to defend the most important aspects of his own record, such as preventing a Great Depression, bringing the United States through this global financial horror better than Europe or any other place in the world, covering 40 million new people under medical care.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

It's as if rescuing General Motors.

[Rick]

Where was that?

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And Rick, what about energy? Romney made the statement, by the way, I like coal. And then he said clean coal. And then of course he hit, predictably, he hit Obama on Solyndra and some of the other government funded clean energy initiatives. Why didn't Obama have a good answer on that?

[Rick]

Why didn't he have a good answer on anything? I mean, when Romney used the phrase trickle down government, a brilliant attempt to turn a Democratic trope to. To his own advantage, why didn't Obama say what do you mean by that? Is that what you think Social Security is? It's something that trickles down from government. No, sir. That Social Security is something people earn over a lifetime of work. Is that what you think Medicare is? Trickle down government? Well, and instead, what do you mean by that?

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And instead? Didn't Obama say, I believe we agree about Social Security?

[Rick]

He tossed that issue into the dustbin. Yeah, he said we basically agree. And in a sense there's some truth to that. Social Security can be fixed with a few tweaks. Everybody knows that. But the Republican Party has a decades long record of opposition to Social Security beginning with the establishment of Social Security and going right up to George Bush's attempt to privatize Social Security, an attempt that was fully endorsed by the Republican Party and Paul Ryan and for all I know by Mitt Romney.

[John Cassidy]

Well, certainly by some of Mitt Romney's economic advisers. I mean, that was another big failure. He didn't make any attempt to tighten Romney to Bush. I mean, there are so many areas in which he can do it. You know, a lot of his foreign policy staff are all the neocons. A lot of his economic staff are the people who put together the Bush tax cuts. And as Rick says, you know, we're involved in the 2005 idea to privatize Social Security. Romney himself seems to have weighed back from that a bit. But you know, you can tie it to him. Paul Ryan is certainly in favor of it. There's plenty of material there if you're a skillful politician, to make life awkward for Romney. And Obama didn't use very much of it at all.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Rick, clearing away all the details they were discussing. In the end, it really was about two starkly different visions about the role of the government in the lives of Americans. We heard Romney at the top of the program articulating his view. What is Obama's view? Is this part of the problem that he is afraid to come out and just say what he believes?

[Rick]

That's part of the problem. But I'd say this too. Everyone, including yourself just now said that this were too clearly articulated visions of the role of government. Actually, Romney presented a very different view of the role of government from the usual right wing palaver. At every point he essentially pictured himself as the defender of big compassionate government, the defender of Medicare, the defender of not cutting taxes for the rich. This was probably the most kind of jaw droppingly audacious part of his whole approach to this. He essentially presented himself as the liberal in the race, something he can afford to do because of the party he comes from. And he left Obama stranded out on a kind of technocratic crag, unable to climb down.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

John, any final words?

[John Cassidy]

I think certainly the idea that Obama was going to cruise home and he could just sort of win on autopilot, that assumption has certainly been thrown out. I think, you know, Obama's in a race now. He's going to have to act like he's up for the fight and prepare properly for the next debate and really look like he wants to be reelected president. Last night he just didn't give. I think Rick's right about the body language. He just didn't get the impression from Obama that he was very keen to be there, he was keen to be reelected, you know, and he just would do anything to be the next president.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

It was his anniversary. He wanted to be with Michelle.

[Rick]

I think what Romney did was he prevented a catastrophe. Romney prevented what would have been a complete collapse, not only of his own campaign, but of all the down ticket races too. That performance rescued his party. So that for whatever heresies he committed last night, for example, saying that his idea of a good health plan was the same as Obama's, essentially, whatever heresies he committed, he has rescued his party and they are going to be grateful and loyal to him for that.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Thank you so much, both of you. We're going to have to leave it there. Hendrick Hertzberg is a senior editor and political essayist. John Cassidy is a staff writer who also blogs frequently about politics on newyorker.com this has been the Political Scene podcast from the New Yorker. I'm Dorothy Wickenden.

[Hendrick Hertzberg]

You can subscribe to this and other free New Yorker podcasts in the itunes store. The weekly audio edition of the magazine is available at audible.com subscribers can read the magazine [e-mail] and also in the tablet edition on the iPad and the Kindle Fire.

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America is changing and so is the world.

[John Cassidy]

But what's happening in America isn't just.

[Hendrick Hertzberg]

A cause of global upheaval.

[John Cassidy]

It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

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I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. hi.

[John Cassidy]

I'm Tristan Redman in London and this is the Global Story.

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Every weekday we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Hendrick Hertzberg]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

[John Cassidy]

From.

[Rick]

PRX.