How Trump Brought Us to a “Rupture in the World Order”

Summary

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Podcast Summary: How Trump Brought Us to a “Rupture in the World Order”

The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Date: January 23, 2026
Host: Evan Osnos
Panelists: Jane Mayer, Susan B. Glasser
Guest: Carl Bildt (Co-chair, European Council on Foreign Relations; former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden)

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Episode Overview

In this episode, The New Yorker’s political team assesses the dizzying events of a week in which Donald Trump, now President again, threatened to seize Greenland, escalated rhetorical and policy conflict with core NATO and EU allies, and announced a fantastical "Board of Peace" inviting Vladimir Putin—while disinviting or omitting long-standing allies. With European analysts reeling, the podcast explores whether we are witnessing a fundamental rupture in the postwar order underpinning American and European alliances. Carl Bildt offers deep perspective on how Europe's leaders and publics are reassessing their relationship with an increasingly unpredictable United States.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Greenland Gambit and Breakdown with Europe

• Summary:
  The week began with Trump openly threatening to seize Greenland (a Danish, and thus NATO, territory), proposing tariffs on Denmark, and antagonizing traditionally close allies. Shortly after, he claimed to have reached a vague “framework” deal with NATO, which the panel describes as more magical thinking than reality.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Trump’s ability both to seize the world's imagination with some wacky scheme or another—we’re ten years into that—but this did feel to me like something different happened this week.” (Evan Osnos, 02:30)
  • “A European Union diplomat put it memorably... ‘Our American dream is dead—Donald Trump murdered it.’ That’s quite an image from a diplomat.” (Susan Glasser, 01:36)
• Timestamps:
  • [01:24-03:52] — Discussion of the chaos provoked by Trump’s threats to Greenland, Denmark, and NATO

2. America’s Allies—From Deer-in-the-Headlights to Open Alarm

• Summary:
  The panel notes a stunned and traumatized European diplomatic class, now openly questioning their shared reality with Washington after Trump’s performance in Davos and his sidelining of core allies while embracing countries with authoritarian leanings.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “At its core, honestly, what they said was—it’s clear to us that we do not share a perception of reality.” (Susan Glasser, 04:57)
• Timestamps:
  • [03:52-05:30] — Outlining the split between US and Europe, reactions from European diplomats

3. Carl Bildt Interview: Europe’s Strategic Reckoning

• Summary:
  Carl Bildt describes the cumulative shock experienced by European leaders—a sense that Trump has become “unhinged,” culminating in a barrage of threats and incoherent rhetoric. He explains that Europe now perceives the United States as unpredictable and unreliable, requiring a new strategy of “de-risking” from U.S. volatility rather than simply appeasing Trump.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “It looked rather unhinged, the entire thing... an extraordinary, incoherent and disturbing experience.” (Carl Bildt, 07:38-08:21)
  • “What we need to do as Europeans is to do our own thing, to be quite frank. We now have the United States that from our point of view is unpredictable... and that means it’s also unreliable.” (Carl Bildt, 09:54)
• Timestamps:
  • [06:07-11:48] — Bildt describes the reaction in Europe, new thinking about NATO, and “de-risking” alliances

4. The Age of Rupture: Mark Carney’s Vision and the End of Postwar Order

• Summary:
  Canadian PM Mark Carney’s keynote at Davos resonates: the world is undergoing a rupture, not a mere transition. Great powers weaponize economic integration, endangering middle powers and undermining the global system.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition... Nostalgia is not a strategy.” (Mark Carney, paraphrased by Susan Glasser and panel, 12:16-13:34)
  • “The Marconi speech is the thing that is going to be remembered after this Davos...” (Carl Bildt, 13:02)
• Timestamps:
  • [11:48-14:43] — Carney’s speech and its implications for Europe and the “middle countries”

5. Ideological Shift and Echoes of History

• Summary:
  Bildt draws parallels between the authoritarian-conservative ideology rising in Trump’s orbit and historical experiences in Europe, suggesting that while European societies are less polarized, their historical memory makes them more attuned and alarmed.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “It’s more sort of authoritarian, conservative, reactionary, I would say in a lot of different ways... Tolerance of minorities, that is not really things that are uppermost in their minds.” (Carl Bildt, 14:59)
  • “We are better functioning societies in Europe at the moment than the United States is.” (Carl Bildt, 16:03)
• Timestamps:
  • [14:43-16:34] — Distinction between US and European politics, echoes of history, and social polarization

6. Russia’s Alignment with Trump: Geopolitical Fallout

• Summary:
  With the U.S. drifting, Russia exploits the rupture. Trump’s rhetoric on Greenland echoes Putin’s justifications for Crimea. Bildt points out that Russia feels an “ideological affinity” with the Trump team and that U.S. support for Russian aims in Eastern Ukraine is “incomprehensible.”
• Notable Quotes:
  • “It’s hard to see the distinction, frankly, between the rationalization that the United States leader has used to take over Danish territory with Russia’s seizure of Crimea.” (Evan Osnos, 18:23)
  • “There’s a deep, deeper rapprochement between that Russia and that United States.” (Carl Bildt, 19:03)
  • “The US Position is trying to pressure Ukraine into that particular. They should not only accept what Russia has taken, but they should hand over even more... nearly incomprehensible.” (Carl Bildt, 20:07)
• Timestamps:
  • [18:23-22:56] — Russia’s response, Crimea parallels, current U.S. position on Ukraine

7. Europe’s Next Moves: From Appeasement to Countermeasures

• Summary:
  Having learned that flattery and appeasement don’t work with Trump, European leaders are now ready to consider hard economic consequences (“iron consequences”) to counter Trump’s threats—marking a clear evolution in strategy.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Now, when he came with the 10% [tariff] threat, you saw the reaction in Europe was very different from the spring. Everyone said, now we really have to make clear to them that we will take countermeasures.” (Carl Bildt, 22:18)
• Timestamps:
  • [22:18-23:43] — European leaders’ changing mentality on deterrence vs. appeasement

8. Irreversible Change in Transatlantic Relations

• Summary:
  Even if the U.S. elects a pro-NATO leader after Trump, Bildt doubts the relationship will return to its previous form. The breach of trust is seen, if not as irreparable, then as permanently altering the alliance.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “I don’t think anyone is under illusion that all of this would disappear.” (Carl Bildt, 23:43)
• Timestamps:
  • [23:43-24:30] — What happens after Trump; future of transatlantic ties

9. Conclusion: Europe’s Grieving, Uncertainty, and a New Path Forward

• Summary:
  The hosts reflect on the tone and content of the conversation. Bildt’s candor—calling the U.S. president “unhinged”—signals a new, more honest dialogue about American decline and the shifting world order. The sense is of a Europe grieving an old world—but also forced to move beyond nostalgia toward self-reliance and new coalitions.
• Notable Quotes:
  • “Europe is actively thinking about how to undertake, quote, de risking from the United States. This is... the difference between... admiring the problem and actually moving toward a world where you're going to be forced to take some actions.” (Evan Osnos, 28:44)
  • “This is not just about Trump. This is not a problem that is self-correcting in three years... the country that produced Donald Trump is the issue.” (Susan Glasser, 31:25)
  • “If your neighbor is out of control, then whether you have an open rupture with him or not, you know you're in a completely different place.” (Evan Osnos, 33:28)
• Timestamps:
  • [26:42-35:07] — Panel’s reflections, historical context, and the challenges of permanent insecurity

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Memorable Moments & Quotes (with timestamps)

• “What we saw this week is Donald Trump’s alternate reality goes to Davos, and the people who are living in reality reality say, no. What the hell?!”
  (Evan Osnos & Jane Mayer, 05:30-05:42)

• “It looked rather unhinged, the entire thing.”
  (Carl Bildt, 07:38)

• “Nostalgia is not a strategy.”
  (Mark Carney, cited by Susan Glasser, 13:34)

• “We are better functioning societies in Europe at the moment than the United States is.”
  (Carl Bildt, 16:03)

• “There’s a deep, deeper rapprochement between that Russia and that United States.”
  (Carl Bildt, 19:03)

• “Europe is actively thinking about how to undertake, quote, de risking from the United States.”
  (Evan Osnos, 28:44)

• “This is not just about Trump. This is not a problem that is self-correcting in three years... the country that produced Donald Trump is the issue.”
  (Susan Glasser, 31:25)

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Takeaways for Listeners

• Fundamental Shifts: Trump’s ongoing disruptions are now seen by both American and European leaders as signifying a rupture, not just a policy dispute or temporary setback.
• European Response: Europe, which has benefited from and relied upon U.S. leadership, is rethinking its defense, alliances, and economic strategy, moving toward autonomy and “de-risking.”
• Dangerous Precedents: Trump’s rhetoric about Greenland and NATO mirrors past authoritarian land grabs, with Russia taking ideological comfort and support in the U.S. President’s new foreign policy reality.
• Irreversible Change: Trust in the U.S. is eroding; even a “return to normal” administration would not immediately restore things.
• Emotional Undercurrent: There's a sense of mourning among traditional allies—for a world order and a set of shared values that may now be lost.

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For listeners: This episode offers a frank, historically grounded assessment of a seismic shift in the transatlantic relationship and the liberal world order. The tone is serious, candid, and at times somber—marked by surprise even from seasoned analysts at the scale of the rupture. If you want to understand why European leaders are alarmed, how Russia is capitalizing, and whether the U.S.-Europe alliance can survive, this discussion provides vital insights.

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Transcript

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[Susan Glasser]

See ahs.com contracts for coverage details, including limit amounts, fees, limitations and exclusions. Welcome to the Political Scene from the New Yorker, a weekly discussion about the big questions in American politics. I'm Evan usnos and I'm joined, as ever, by my colleagues Jane Mayer and Susan Glasser. Good morning, Jane and good morning, Susan.

[Jane Mayer]

Hey, Evan.

[Evan Osnos]

Hey there. Great to be with you.

[Susan Glasser]

Well, this just may be remembered as the week when some big American allies stopped pretending to get along with Donald Trump. In barely 100 hours, he swung from threatening to get Greenland and fight NATO to backing down, at least temporarily. So what's the net effect? Well, a European Union diplomat put it memorably to Politico, quote, unquote, our American dream is dead, adding Donald Trump murdered it. That's quite an image from a diplomat. So, Jane, Susan, what happened here for people who didn't follow every twist and turn?

[Jane Mayer]

Well, as we know, Trump has been fixated on Greenland, a Danish territory, and Denmark is a NATO ally, and he's threatened to seize Greenland and impose tariffs on Denmark. And on Wednesday, Trump pulled back, claiming he and NATO reached a framework for a deal.

[Evan Osnos]

Framework being a very broad.

[Susan Glasser]

Doing a lot of work.

[Evan Osnos]

He's doing a lot of work here.

[Jane Mayer]

Concept of a plan, right?

[Susan Glasser]

What was that?

[Evan Osnos]

It was concepts of a plan and Trump's ability both to sort of seize the world's imagination with some wacky scheme or another. We're ten years into that. But this did feel to me like something different happened this week. And having the president go to Switzerland, where all the world leaders are gathered, the CEOs, and essentially treat Europe like hostile territory, you had JD Vance. In fact, congratulating him for going into the lion's den and speaking hard truths. A remarkable statement from the United States. Trump chose to end his visit after brandishing these threats against Europe by convening this, quote, unquote, Board of Peace, this sort of make believe new league that's gonna have him as the chairman of the world and somehow displace the United Nations. Really remarkable scene. So you could have the President of the United States flanked by all of America's traditional allies, the great powers of Britain and France and Germany and all the countries of the European Union. Those are our friends, those are our allies. No, he's invited Vladimir Putin, the instigator of the worst war in Europe since World War II, to join his Board of Peace. And I think for me, that image sums up this crisis moment.

[Susan Glasser]

You're absolutely right. That that split screen is the thing that stays with me this week, because you had this moment when the countries that would be traditionally in America's intellectual camp, in our sphere of values, places like France, Norway, Sweden, Italy, all of them saying, no way, we're not getting involved in this Board of Peace. And instead, you have these other countries that are, let's call them what, tattered democracies like Turkey, or. They are outright authoritarian states. So there is a parting of blocks at the moment between countries that are, in a sense, being forced to choose to actually embrace the essence of.

[Evan Osnos]

Yeah, except that we're the leader of the Democratic bloc. That's the problem is. You know what, Evan? We're treaty allies with all of those countries.

[Jane Mayer]

Those are the lions in the lion's den. You know, the allies are. And meanwhile, of course, he's disinvited Canada.

[Susan Glasser]

Exactly.

[Jane Mayer]

And never did invite Denmark to join his peace group.

[Susan Glasser]

Yeah, I had this moment where I just by coincidence, happened to be meeting with a bunch of European analysts who were coming through town, and they all had the deer in the headlights expression, having kind of gone around Washington for a few days. And it was just fascinating to see that at its core, honestly, this was all unfolding right when we were seeing each other. At its core, what they said was, it's clear to us that we do not share a perception of reality. That's the term. That's a remarkable description of how far apart these two places are.

[Evan Osnos]

In a nutshell, that's what we saw this week is Donald Trump's alternate reality goes to Davos, and the people who are living in reality reality say, no. What the hell?

[Jane Mayer]

What the hell? No.

[Susan Glasser]

All right, well, to make some sense of this, we are fortunate guys that we have a guest today who has spent decades thinking about the relationship across the Atlantic, about power, about alliances. Joining us is Carl Bildt. He is co chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations and is a former prime minister and foreign minister of Sweden. And Carl joins us now. Carl, welcome to the show.

[Carl Bildt]

Thank you. A pleasure.

[Susan Glasser]

You've been watching this week's extraordinary events. I think, like all of us have been. Trump, as you know, gave this much anticipated speech in Davos. We're just gonna listen to a representative sample. And I should note at the outset for listeners that Trump refers repeatedly to Iceland here, but in fact, he seems to mean Greenland.

[Carl Bildt]

I'm helping Europe, I'm helping NATO. And until the last few days, when I told them about Iceland, they loved me. They called me Daddy. Right. Last time, very smart man, said, he's our daddy.

[Jane Mayer]

He's running it.

[Carl Bildt]

I was like, running it.

[Susan Glasser]

I went from running it to being a terrible human being.

[Carl Bildt]

But now what I'm asking for is.

[Susan Glasser]

A piece of ice, cold and poorly located, that can play a vital role.

[Carl Bildt]

In world peace and world protection. It's a very small ask compared to.

[Susan Glasser]

What we have given them for many, many decades.

[Carl Bildt]

But the problem with NATO is that.

[Susan Glasser]

We'Ll be there for them 100%.

[Carl Bildt]

But I'm not sure that they'd be there for us.

[Susan Glasser]

Carl, you've heard a lot of Donald Trump over the last 10 years. We all have. But why did this moment, this week feel so different to European leaders?

[Carl Bildt]

Because it was sort of a tornado of statements and threats and possible actions. I mean, it was a thing every day coming. It looked rather unhinged, the entire thing. And I think the speech that he gave more than an hour was rather sort of rambling and incoherent. And then I think he decided himself to add Greenland. He mixed it up with Iceland. The Icelanders were horrified. The Greenlanders were not particularly pleased to be called a piece of ice. And then what happened thereafter with Secretary Rutte, we learn more about that. But it was an extraordinary, incoherent and disturbing experience.

[Susan Glasser]

Just to be very clear, you've used the word that I think everybody has on their mind, which is unhinged. There was a cumulative effect that seems to be a man departing the plane of a familiar reality. Is that how it felt to people who were actually comprehending the impact on your own lives in Europe?

[Carl Bildt]

Yeah, roughly. And it wasn't just the speech in Davos, but it was everything that happened in the days preceding that. You see the escalation of the Greenland issue after Venezuela, where he seemed to have been after that, sort of intoxicated with his own powers. And we had sort of social media posties that were sort of strange in the extreme. We had Stephen Miller with statements. We had even Secretary Besset talking in distinctly insulting terms about Denmark. So it was one thing after the other coming.

[Evan Osnos]

You know, it's raised, of course, the issue that for 10 years Donald Trump has been saying worrisome, even dangerous, disruptive, unhinged things about Europe, about NATO. And there's been a circular logic to it.

[Jane Mayer]

Right.

[Evan Osnos]

What exactly, if anything, is Europe gonna do in a collective sense about it? Donald Trump used this language about daddy. You mentioned Secretary General Mark Ruta of NATO, who's the one who called Trump daddy. Where do you fall down on the kind of just appease Trump, make him feel better and everything will be okay, versus no, this actually is a decisive break and we need to act differently.

[Carl Bildt]

I think what we need to do as Europeans is to do our own thing, to be quite frank. I mean, we now have the United States that from our point of view is unpredictable. Probably from your point of view as well, by the way.

[Evan Osnos]

Yes.

[Carl Bildt]

And that means that it's also unreliable. And we certainly don't want to have any break with the United States, obviously neither desirable nor possible. But what we need to do, frankly is, and that's discussion going on, we need to have an element of de risking in our relationship with the United States all across the board, because we don't want to be subject to this sort of outburst of unpredictability and whatever it is that the White House is delivering at the moment.

[Evan Osnos]

So Sweden was one of two countries, along with Finland, that had resisted for years the idea of NATO membership. And then of course, after Vladimir Putin's full scale invasion of Ukraine during the Biden administration, joined NATO. So you're sort of the newest members of this alliance that Donald Trump is sort of now calling into question. Do you think that's causing any reconsideration in Sweden about the course of NATO integration? Or is it that you can envision now a future of NATO without the United States?

[Carl Bildt]

It's not leading to any reconsideration. There are no signs of that. But what is leading to is that we must face the fact that we are probably going to have a NATO with not without the United States, hopefully not, but with significantly less United States, and that we must adjust both ourselves and NATO to that particular fact. NATO membership, from our point of view, has a lot of advantages Irrespective of the United States, by the way, because the integration of our forces in Northern Europe in itself creates added strength. So even take the United States out of the picture, NATO membership has strengthened us or will continue to strengthen us quite a lot.

[Jane Mayer]

You know, when it comes to a vision of a different future, it seems that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who spoke at Davos the day before Trump arrived, really hit a note that resonated with many of the participants there about the power of the middle countries working together. I'd like to play an excerpt from that speech.

[Susan Glasser]

Let me be direct. We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy, and geopolitics have laid bare the risks of extreme global integration. But more recently, great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited. You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.

[Jane Mayer]

I'm curious, what did you take away from that, and does it give you a direction or some kind of path forward?

[Carl Bildt]

I think the Marconi speech is the thing that is going to be remembered after this doubles, because I think he expressed in very eloquent terms roughly what people have been thinking or the direction in which the thinking of people have been evolving in most of the other countries, call them middle countries or Europe or whatever. So that's a speech that's going to be talked about, that's going to be read, and a lot of people are going to see it, will see it as well, saying that's the way it is.

[Susan Glasser]

It's notable to me that one of the other things that Carney mentioned is, as he said, we know the old warder is not coming back. We shouldn't mourn it. And then this is the phrase that stays with me. Nostalgia is not a strategy that is orienting this relationship in a way that says, in effect, the trust, the faith, the understandings that came before are no longer operative, or at least not dispositive. Does that sound right?

[Carl Bildt]

I think that is right. If you take Trump out of the picture, because he's a rather unique personality, I don't see him as sort of particularly intellectually interesting. I mean, he is obviously in favor of tariffs and against windmills, but I don't see much of. Yeah, I don't see very much of coherence elsewhere. But if you take the JD Vance or the Stephen Millers, and the other crowd around. And that is really what we need to be aware of. They are engaged in a civilizational battle for the future of the United States and for the future of the Western world. And it's a completely different relationship.

[Jane Mayer]

Can I just ask you one follow up question about the dedicated ideology of people like J.D. vance and Stephen Miller? Is this an ideology that looks familiar to you as somebody in Europe? Have you seen it before?

[Carl Bildt]

That's a good question. Let's debate it, but let's not go down that particular route. But it's clearly a different concept of society. It's more sort of authoritarian, conservative, reactionary, I would say in a lot of different ways. I mean, they would describe it differently, but they're sort of what we have, the rule of the law, the sort of division of powers and those sorts of things. Tolerance of minorities, that is not really things that are uppermost in their minds, if I phrase it like that.

[Jane Mayer]

Just to press for one second more, I just am interested in the way this kind of leadership echoes in Europe. Europe has in a way, and at Davos stood up in a way that the United States has not in many ways to Trump. I mean, at least not the elected officials and not the Republican Party. And I do wonder if that's because there's an echo here of the history that Europe has experienced. Do you feel that maybe Europe is more sophisticated or more alarmed because of its history?

[Carl Bildt]

There could be a little bit of that, but I think there's more relevant factor that is we are less polarized societies. I mean, we are societies where there's pluralism and we disagree in politics and whatever. But the depolarization, nearly hatred that we find in different segments of US Society, we don't have that in Europe. We don't understand it. We see it as dangerous from that point of view. I would even go long and say we are better functioning societies in Europe at the moment than the United States is.

[Susan Glasser]

We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, we're going to look more closely at this rupture and what it means for Europe and geopolitics. The political Scene will be back in just a moment. If you've been enjoying the show, please leave us A rating and a review on the podcast platform of your choice. And while you're there, don't forget to hit the follow button so you never miss an episode. Thank you so much for listening. Come see Critics at large live on February 19th. We're gonna be at the 92nd Street Y in New York City for a conversation about Wuthering Heights. There's a new adaptation coming up starring Margot Robbie and Jacob Elordi, and we will certainly be getting into that, but we'll also do what we humbly I'll say what we do best. Returning to the text, we're gonna go deep on the gothic and and Emily Bronte. Join me, Vincent Cunningham and my co hosts Alex Schwartz and Nomi Frey for the discussion. And crucially, if you buy a VIP ticket, you'll join us for an after party, too. Go to 92ny.org for more information. That's 92ny.org hope to see you there. At Pit Pass by Discount Tire. We're changing the way tires should be bought so it's as easy as 1, 2 done. Buy and book online at discounttire.com pitpass today.

[Evan Osnos]

So let's talk about, you know, the Russians are celebrating, in effect, Donald Trump. I noted that Sergei Lavrov just the other day had a press conference and absolutely cited Donald Trump's threats to take over Greenland. It's hard to see the distinction, frankly, between the rationalization that the United States leader has used to take over Danish territory with Russia's seizure of Crimea. Some of the language that we've seen in recent days from President Trump is not only echoing Russia now, but some of what we heard in the 20th century. What does it mean for Russia to have the United States acting in this way?

[Carl Bildt]

They are, of course, happy, satisfied and supportive. I mean, that's it. If you see the social media post of Kyrie Dmytrov, who's the man who's now the point man towards the Trump team on Russia, on Ukraine. I mean, look at what he's posting. I mean, he's supporting all of this, applauding all of this coming out of the Trumps and the Millers and the Daily Bass, they feel sort of sort of ideological affinity with that kind of approach to politics. And that adds to all of the other sort of the war and the territorial issues and the disrespect for international law and the disrespect for territorial integrity. But there's a deep, deeper rapprochement between that Russia and that United States.

[Evan Osnos]

Do you see the United States and Russia in effect, working together now in these negotiations, such as they are, over the war? Do you believe there's any serious prospect of a negotiated peace at this point that would be fair to Ukraine?

[Carl Bildt]

Well, I would hope that would be. But what's surprising me is what I understand is the number One outstanding issue, the territorial, the rest of the remaining part of the Donetsk region that Putin has not been able to get his hands on, and he demands it. And what is surprising to me is that Trump supports it. The US Position is trying to pressure Ukraine into that particular. They should not only accept what Russia has taken, but they should hand over even more. That I think is nearly incomprehensible that the United States is on that particular position. But that's a fact, undeniable fact.

[Susan Glasser]

A question, Carl, about where this goes from here. We started the week, of course, with the United States, in effect, threatening harsh trade tariffs on European allies, the possibility of even military action in Greenland. Eventually, of course, Trump backed off, and it will be a story to be written about why. What worked? Was it the stock market? Was it in fact the threat of real repercussions from Europe, what was known as the trade bazooka, the idea of serious trade restrictions and investment restrictions. There is also a pattern emerging here, which is that when you're trying to understand what Trump responds to, you see that he changed after that idea was raised, this idea of harsh, call them, iron consequences. And we saw something similar when he threatened China and they responded by choking off critical minerals. All of a sudden, he rapidly evolved in his thinking. I'm beginning to hear from some people who say, well, it seems to be that the only thing he understands is the tool he uses himself, which is economic pain. Do you sense that there is an emerging clarity among European leaders that it is not enough to try to flatter him or move him along or pretend that you reached an agreement, that in fact, you do need to show some real willingness to undertake hard consequences?

[Carl Bildt]

Yes, that's clearly been an evolution of European thinking. If you go back to the spring, after the famous Liberation Day and all of the tariffs and all of his threats, there was a discussion in Europe, should we take countermeasures to him, or should we sort of try to have some sort of accommodation and be nice? And whatever. It ended up with the agreement in July between Roosevelt von de La and Trump, no countermeasures were taken, and we got that particular agreement. Now, when he came with the 10% threat, you saw the reaction in Europe was very different from the spring. Everyone said, now we really have to make clear to them that we will take countermeasures.

[Jane Mayer]

Carl, as you put it, Trump is a unique personality. He is only going to be with us as president, ostensibly for three more years. And there are, of course, people allied with him who could pick up the reins as you've mentioned, J.D. vance, is a possibility. But there's also the possibility that because the United States is very divided politically, a very different and much more pro NATO kind of leadership will take back power in the United States. Do you think Europe will welcome that and be prepared to fall back into its old relationship, or do you think that relationship has been in some ways irreparably ruptured, as Carney has put it?

[Carl Bildt]

I think it has been changed because go back a couple of years, we had the Trump one and we had, no question about it, enormous relief when there was Biden. But even that there was some lingering is it Biden or Trump is going to be the historical parenthesis and turned out to be Biden? And if so, Trump leaves in three years. Do we really know what lies ahead of us? And we also saw, by the way, with the Biden administration, it was a different one. No question about that. But there were quite a number of things that Trump 1 did that he didn't undo. So there was elements of continuity from Trump 1 into Biden and then we have this sort of big leap that Trump 2 is doing. But I don't think anyone is under illusion that all of this would disappear.

[Evan Osnos]

And let me just end on the note we began with this week, which is Greenland itself. I'm just curious, three years from now, do you think that Donald Trump will succeed in some way in taking over Greenland or changing the nature of its relationship with Denmark?

[Carl Bildt]

I don't think he will succeed to make it a part of the United States. I think that's very difficult to see. Then exactly how this evolved. We haven't a clue. That could be a social media post in two minutes from now. Well, it could be where we have a new policy and the sort of framework that they discussed. Evidently, Mark Rutger and President Trump in Davos yesterday didn't touch the key issues. So exactly where we had. I think we are going to have further drama on it, but I doubt he will succeed.

[Evan Osnos]

But at least Iceland is probably safe.

[Carl Bildt]

I would hope so. I would hope so. But Icelanders really got nervous.

[Evan Osnos]

Yeah, well, when he said it four times, I mean, that was the part that really got me.

[Susan Glasser]

Well, Carl Bildt talking to us from Zurich, there are a lot of people who would have liked to talk to you this week. We're grateful for your time and we hope you'll come back on another occasion. Hopefully we won't be talking about Iceland.

[Carl Bildt]

Thank you. All the best.

[Evan Osnos]

Thank you so much.

[Jane Mayer]

Thanks so much.

[Susan Glasser]

All right, We're Going to take a quick break. The political scene will be back in just a moment. Right now, we are living through some.

[Jane Mayer]

Of the most tumultuous political times our.

[Evan Osnos]

Country has ever known.

[Jane Mayer]

I'm David Remnick, and each week on the New Yorker Radio Hour, I'll try to make sense of what's happening alongside.

[Evan Osnos]

Politicians and thinkers like Cory Booker, Nancy.

[Jane Mayer]

Pelosi, Liz Cheney, Tim Waltz, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Newt Gingrich, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Charlamagne, tha God, and so many more. That's all in the New Yorker Radio Hour, wherever you listen to podcasts.

[Evan Osnos]

Well, that was bracing, I would say.

[Susan Glasser]

I think that is the word. You know, what comes through very clearly. I'm curious what you guys took from this, but you hear about a man on a tightrope, you hear him describing a world in which Europe does not want to have, as Carl said, a break with the United States. But it is also coming to the very harsh conclusion that the world that used to exist no longer does.

[Jane Mayer]

And his shock that the United States would be helping or taking Russia's side in Ukraine. I think it's just so much for Europe to try to grapple with. At this particular point. I was also struck just with his tone. It's the old world tone. A diplomat, a leader who sounds careful, thoughtful, cautious about what he's trying to say so that he doesn't cause offense or collateral, collateral damage. It's so different.

[Susan Glasser]

But also a person who's grieving. I mean, who is grieving, clearly, for the world. That has been the defining modus operandi of his professional career.

[Evan Osnos]

Well, and again, if you listen right, the tone is so much more measured than the kind of hate speech that's casually thrown around now in the United States. At the same time, the actual words are pretty straightforward, unvarnished, not super diplomatic. Saying the president of the United States is unhinged, unhinged. A decade ago, we would have been really blown away. And in fact, actually a decade ago, I did an interview with Carl for my then Politico podcast, and it made headlines when he talked about how people in Sweden thought that Trump had gone bananas when he started saying crazy, unfounded allegations. When he talked about Donald Trump's brutal and vulgar campaigning, lack of civility, and, and the fact that he had caused a gulf to open up between us. People really took note of it then. That was already 10 years ago.

[Susan Glasser]

That was the young and crystalline thinking. Donald Trump.

[Evan Osnos]

Well, I think it is a measure of where we are to go from this to being able to Say very straightforwardly, the president of the United States appears to be unhinged. Europe is actively thinking about how to undertake, quote, de risking from the United States. This is, I think, the difference between sort of, as Barack Obama used to say, admiring the problem and actually moving toward a world where you're going to be forced to take some actions. That being said, I thought he was quite cautious about. There are some people in Europe who say the day of appeasement is over. We have to be tough. This is the end of NATO as we know it. What we heard from him was something different, which is we do need to find a way to keep the United States in NATO, even if it's a reduced presence. And it will be very likely a reduced presence. And so to me, that actually probably represents the kind of middle right now. But I also, I'm curious what you guys think, because I was thinking about how to write about all this for my column this weekend. I was struck by just Trump was so unhinged and such a flood of words. And in seeing things from anyone else, he literally went to Davos in Switzerland and said that he imposed tariffs on Switzerland because he didn't like the fact that the prime minister, quote, a woman had been annoying to him. But the Europeans seem to be less inured to Trump at this point than we are. And they're saying he's unhinged, he's crazy, he's out of control. And I don't know, maybe we need to take a lesson from the fact that they are kind of considering the problem anew and saying, wait a minute, America, your leader is out of control.

[Susan Glasser]

Yeah, I think what's so interesting to me, and by the way, did you notice that Steve Bannon called Trump's speech the greatest speech since Pericles in Athens? So I guess it all depends on where you stand. Look, that was one of the most bizarre displays by a public official that we've seen whose last name is not Castro. I mean, the kind of, the length, the completely sort of unguided missile quality, you had no idea that he had any sense of where he was going. But I think what is really notable, both in the reaction that's been coming out of the week and then also in the comments that we heard today from Carl, is that this is not just about Trump. This is not a problem that is self correcting in three years where they get to say, okay, we're back to normal, that there is a feeling that in a sense that the country that produced Donald Trump is the issue.

[Jane Mayer]

And his Understanding, as he said. He said Trump is not intellectually that interesting to him, but that he sees that there's an ideology of the people around him. And I thought that was very interesting and that that ideology has taken hold to some extent in this country. And the other thing he spoke of was the extent to which a kind of a hot hate exists in the United States that doesn't exist in Europe, and they see that as a pathology. I mean, this was the. Honestly, I think when many people question Trump's sanity, and Susan caught it in her column, in many ways, it was not just you wrote about his logaria. He's speaking in an unhinged and incredibly lengthy way. That's different. And the letter to the Prime Minister of Norway where Trump wrote, considering your country decided not to give me the Nobel Prize, Peace Prize for having stopped eight wars plus, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace. This was so stunning. That is, I think if there was a turning point, it might have been that. Note that document, at least in my inbox, I'm getting questions from people about his mental health in a serious way that not just fringe people are asking about.

[Susan Glasser]

I mean, it's a little bit like if you're an American ally, you've had this big house living next door to you for a long time with this big kind of boisterous, slightly obnoxious guy who lives in it. And for years you've thought, well, at least he's on my side, so it's okay if he then announces someday, well, you know what? Actually, I like your backyard. And I think I might just take it for myself. I have a psychological need to feel successful by taking it. And then, you know, 100 hours later, he says, actually, you know what, forget it, you can keep your yard. I just want a little bit of it, or something like that. Do you ever forget that? No. And you begin to change your behavior.

[Evan Osnos]

Of course, if your neighbor is out of control, then you know, whether you have an open rupture with him or not, you know, you are completely in a different place. And I will tell you, reading pieces this week where senior European leaders, the kind of people who are measured, rational, calm, are saying, our future is. We're caught between Scylla and Charybdis. We've got Russia out of control, having unleashed the largest, most deadly military conflict since the end of World War II on one end of Europe. And our entire security umbrella has now said, oh, actually, we're the problem. And that is European caught between two adversarial great powers. That's just a completely different planet than anyone remembers because that's basically dialing back the clock, as our great guest Bob Kagan told us last week to not only Pre World War II, but really it's a pre 20th century view of the world and it means a recipe for a lot more conflict, for a lot more insecurity. I would say it's a world of permanent insecurity that we're looking at.

[Jane Mayer]

I mean, I guess the question remains whether these middle countries, as Carney called them, can group together in mutual self defense and unite their economies. Europe's economy, if united, it is larger than the United States. Or if, as he said, if you're not at the table, you're on the menu. And whether they're on the menu, well, we'll see.

[Susan Glasser]

Donald Trump tells us, as he so often does, that the details will all emerge in wait for it. Two weeks, two weeks, two weeks.

[Evan Osnos]

We'll see. We'll see.

[Susan Glasser]

We will be back in two weeks. As a matter of fact, I think we're, we're gonna be off next week, but it is wonderful to be back with you guys and thanks as ever for your time and your insights.

[Jane Mayer]

Great to be here.

[Evan Osnos]

That was great. Thank you so much.

[Susan Glasser]

This has been the political scene from the New Yorker. I'm a, I'm Evan Osnos. We're off next Friday and we're back on Friday, February 6th. In the meantime, be sure to check out some great conversations here by our colleagues David Remnick and Tyler Foggit. We had research assistance today from Alex d'. Elia. Our producer is Nora Richie. Mixing by Mike Kutchman. This episode was edited by Rhiannon Corby. Steven Valentino is our executive producer. Our theme music is by Alison Layton Brown. Thank you so much for listening. At Pit Pass by Discount Tire, we're.

[Jane Mayer]

Changing the way tires should be bought.

[Susan Glasser]

So it's as easy as 1, 2. Done. Buy and book online at discounttire.com pitpass today.

[Evan Osnos]

From PRX.