In Iowa, the Democratic Candidates Respond to the Conflict with Iran

Summary

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Podcast Summary

The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: In Iowa, the Democratic Candidates Respond to the Conflict with Iran
Date: January 13, 2020
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Eric Latch (reporting from Iowa)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores how the sudden escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions, triggered by the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, has upended the Democratic presidential primary campaign in Iowa. Host Dorothy Wickenden interviews The New Yorker’s Eric Latch, who has been following candidates and voters on the ground in the critical early-voting state. Together, they discuss candidate responses to Iran, shifting voter priorities, and the unique, sometimes chaotic, nature of the Iowa caucuses.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Iowa Campaign Experience

• Intimacy Amid Scale: Despite Iowa’s importance and growing event sizes, the campaign still feels personal compared to national rallies.

  • Eric observes that even a "big rally is still 800 people," and that many Iowans value personal connections:

    “The Iowa voters you meet tend to talk more about like, well, I've shaken this person's hand... and I'm gonna make my decision after I've shaken this other person's hand.” (03:06 - Eric Latch)

• Atmosphere: Campaign events have moved beyond coffee shops and diners to high school gyms and auditoriums as caucus day nears, but the "living room politics" ethos endures.

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2. Impact of the Iran Crisis on the Democratic Race (03:09–06:50)

• Sudden Shift: The killing of Soleimani abruptly shifted campaign focus from domestic policy to foreign policy and war, a change especially acute in Iowa, which holds deep historical memories of how war shaped previous races.

• Candidate Responses:

  • Joe Biden & Pete Buttigieg issued statements condemning Soleimani’s actions but questioning the Trump administration’s tactics and strategy—“a tactical critique.”
  • Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Yang focused on the anti-war message, positioning themselves stridently against a new Middle East conflict.
  • The split in messaging echoes earlier caucus dynamics about war and peace (notably 2008).

• Perceived Strengths:

  • Despite Biden's Iraq war baggage, polling and anecdote suggest voters see him as most “reliable” or trustworthy on foreign policy, based on experience rather than ideology.

    "It's less an ideological pitch than it is almost an emotional one... ‘Let me just worry about it.’" (05:21 – Eric Latch)

• Buttigieg’s Challenge and Opportunity:

  • His short military service provides credibility, but his framing—representing the “generation that filled the ranks post-9/11”—might resonate more than mere résumé points.

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3. Iowa Voter Uncertainty & Electability Focus (06:50–09:35)

• Dead Heat and Uncertainty:

  • Polls show Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg neck and neck; huge numbers of undecided voters remain.
  • Events feature attendees who, even at the candidate’s own rallies, are still weighing their options.

    "You go to a Biden event... Well, I'm just kind of still kind of weighing things... These are not 'low information' voters." (07:41 – Eric Latch)

• Caucus Chaos:

  • The caucus process is communal, public, and feels chaotic—a "voting melee," likened to "electoral musical chairs."

    “It’s this public kind of, like, almost voting melee or something.” (07:12 – Eric Latch)

• Electability vs. Values:

  • Early polling pointed to a shift: voters seek the candidate most likely to beat Trump, not the one who best matches their own values.

    “Polling early on this cycle was suggesting that people were looking for somebody who could just beat Trump.” (08:33 – Eric Latch)

• Subjectivity of Beating Trump:

  • Voters disagree on what “beating Trump” requires—some see Biden’s broad appeal as key; others believe Sanders’ passionate base or “ground game” makes him more viable.

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4. Campaign Visibility: Ground Game & Candidate Momentum (09:35–10:38)

• Visibility Indicators:

  • Warren and Buttigieg: Most visible yard signs.
  • Tulsi Gabbard: Unexpectedly, the most billboards, including large-scale banners on private lawns.

    “There’s these big banners that are like maybe 20ft long...” (10:02 – Eric Latch)

  • Gabbard may have low poll numbers, but clearly retains a passionate base.

• Elizabeth Warren’s Fade and Possible Comeback:

  • Media focus on Medicare for All and strategic difficulties handling its details may have hurt her; yet, polls remain volatile and debates could offer a rebound opportunity.

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5. Iowa’s Unique Democratic Process—Strengths and Weaknesses (11:10–13:21)

• Rich Tradition and Deep Memory:

  • Many voters recall past cycles and feel ongoing connection to the process; longtime engagement is common.
  • Iowa politics feels “close to the ground” but is also “the craziest way to run a railroad" (democracy)—deeply personal yet structurally strange.

• Critiques of Demographics and Turnout:

  • Iowa is overwhelmingly white; caucus participation demands several hours at a set time, deterring turnout.
  • “Even in a really great year, turnout never tops 20%.” (12:38 – Eric Latch)

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6. Stakes for the Leading Candidates (13:21–14:13)

• Risks and Rewards:

  • Biden’s "electability" argument might be irreparably damaged by a third- or fourth-place finish.
  • Buttigieg, a new figure on the national stage, faces similar risks.
  • Four different winners in the four early states is plausible, suggesting Iowa’s lasting impact may be overstated.

  “Potentially, it’s plausible that four different candidates will win the four early primary states, and then Super Tuesday will come and nobody will remember what happened in Iowa anyway.” (14:07 – Eric Latch)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Intimacy of Iowa Politics:

  “The Iowa voters you meet tend to talk more about like, well, I've shaken this person's hand, and I'm gonna make my decision after I've shaken this other person's hand.”
  — Eric Latch (03:06)

• On the Debate’s Shift Due to the Iran Crisis:

  “That's clearly changed with the killing of Qassem Soleimani… How has Soleimani's death shaken up the Democratic primary so far?”
  — Dorothy Wickenden (03:22)

• On Biden’s Foreign Policy Appeal:

  “You can just count on me to just take care of it… It's less an ideological pitch than it is almost an emotional one…”
  — Eric Latch (05:21)

• On the Messiness of the Caucus:

  “It's this public kind of like almost voting melee or something…”
  — Eric Latch (07:12)

• On Iowa Turnout and Accessibility:

  “Caucusing means you have to go to a caucus site at a particular time on a particular night and be there for three-plus hours… that's daunting and tough... even in a really great year, turnout... never tops 20%.”
  — Eric Latch (12:44)

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Important Timestamps

• [02:24] — On following candidates and what the pre-caucus atmosphere feels like
• [03:36] — Analysis of candidate responses to Soleimani’s killing
• [05:21] — Biden's emotional pitch on foreign policy
• [06:50] — Buttigieg's positioning on foreign policy and generational military experience
• [07:41] — Iowa voter indecision and the nature of the caucus process
• [08:33] — Voter focus on electability
• [09:49] — Indicators of ground game strength, yard signs, and billboards
• [10:38] — Discussion of Warren’s campaign trajectory
• [12:38] — Iowa's turnout challenges and structural limitations
• [14:13] — Risks for candidates in Iowa and the possible fleeting impact of its results

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Conclusion

This episode provides a vivid picture of the Iowa campaign trail as foreign policy surges to the forefront of Democratic primary politics. The conversation underscores the peculiar intimacy, messiness, and uncertainty of the Iowa caucuses. Both veteran voters and candidates are navigating new terrain after Soleimani's death, and electability—now more subjective than ever—dominates caucus-goer concerns. With considerable uncertainty among voters and possible volatility in primary results, the podcast offers a nuanced, on-the-ground view of American democracy in action—warts and all.

Transcript

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

I'm Dorothy Wickenden. On today's Politics and More podcast, David Remnick talks with the New Yorker's Eric.

[Katie Drummond]

Latch, reporting from Iowa.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

They'll discuss how the Trump administration's killing of Qasem Soleimani has disrupted the Democratic presidential primary. If you've gotten sick of seeing presidential candidates on television, in debates or in commercials, you might want to visit Iowa. There you can find candidates in the grocery store, in diners, maybe even delivering the sermon at church on Sunday, or shaking hands and kissing babies like mad. We've been talking about the Iowa caucuses forever, it seems, and now it's just weeks away. The next debate among the Democrats is on Tuesday in Des Moines, and the New Yorker's Eric Latch has been covering the campaign, and he's stationed in Iowa. Eric I've been a journalist for a long time, but I've never had the pleasure of covering a presidential campaign, and I'm kind of jealous, to be honest with you. One thing is to watch it on television and read about it and so on. What's it like day to day Covering the weeks running up to the Iowa caucus. What do you do? Where do you go? What's it like?

[Eric Latch]

Yeah, so it's a combination of the candidates putting together little kind of tours, and you're trying to follow them and see what they're talking about and see what the rooms that they're in are like and talk to the people who go out to see them.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

But you're long past the living room and diner stage of campaigns. Right. I mean, now you're in high school gyms and auditoriums and things like that.

[Eric Latch]

Yeah. Although the scale with Iowa does not, you know, a big rally is still 800 people. It doesn't ever quite reach the kind of, like, arena size. The Iowa voters you meet tend to talk more about like, well, I've shaken this person's hand, and I've shaken this person's hand, and I'm gonna make my decision after I've shaken this other person's hand, rather than.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

That counts for everything.

[Eric Latch]

Yeah, that counts for a lot, I think.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Now, I gotta tell you, Eric, if you'd asked me a week ago, I'd have said that the coming Democratic debate would be like all the other Democratic debates, which concentrated on domestic issues, Medicare for All, climate, all. All those things.

[Eric Latch]

Yep.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

But that's clearly changed with the killing of Qassem Soleimani in Iraq and the retaliation that took place Tuesday night. How has Soleimani's death shaken up the Democratic primary so far?

[Eric Latch]

In the immediate aftermath of the killing of Soleimani, you had kind of two kind of ways that the candidates responded. On the one hand, you had Biden and Pete Buttigieg, most prominently, sort of issuing statements saying Soleimani was a bad guy responsible for all kinds of bad things in the world, and nobody should be sad that he's dead. But they were questioning the tactics and the timing and the administration's plan for moving forward. So it was a kind of tactical critique. Whereas what Bernie Sanders most notably did and Elizabeth Warren did, and even Andrew Yang is kind of come out and say, suleimani aside, what we're against, against is a war. You know, the polling suggests that voters think that Biden is the strongest candidate on foreign policy. And Sanders, I think, wants people looking for an anti war candidate to turn to him. The memory, I think, in Iowa of the 2008 cycle looms really large here. Right. That was a race that turned on the question of war versus no war. And here you've got, you know, a present day question, not even a sort of retrospective question, but A live question of whether we should get into another conflict in the Middle East.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

I would have thought that this issue be bad for Joe Biden, not good for Joe Biden in the sense that Hillary Clinton struggled to justify her vote for the war when she was a candidate, when she was running against Barack Obama, when she was running against Trump, she was saddled with her vote in 2003 on the Iraq war. Joe Biden, the same thing. Bernie Sanders voted the other way and can say that every single day on the stump. And yet you're telling me that Joe Biden gets the highest marks for foreign policy.

[Eric Latch]

And I think it plays into a pitch that Biden's been making all along, which is like, I'm the one who's been there. You can just count on me to just take care of it, sort of. It's less an ideological pitch than it is almost an emotional one in some way. It's just if you're looking at the current president and the current situation and you're anxious and nervous about it and you don't wanna feel that, let me just worry about it.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Pete Buttigieg served about a half a year in Afghanistan, and he makes this part of his stump speech all the time. And I've got to imagine that it's a big part of his rhetoric. When he discusses the conflict with Iran and Trump's handling of foreign policy, does it have any penetration with the voters in Iowa?

[Eric Latch]

I'll be curious to see how he talks about this at the debate, because that would seem to be his way of getting into a debate that otherwise is the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana. He otherwise might not be able to sort of get into, you know, the way that he's framed it. And I think the way that might be the most powerful way to talk about it in the context of the conflict with Iran isn't as this is my experience, I served in the military, but rather I'm part of the generation that made up the ranks of the military in the post 9, 11 wars. And that perspective, facing the prospect of another Middle east war might be a powerful way to sort of talk about the situation.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

I have to say, in my memory of the Iowa caucuses and the races in Iowa in years past, it's usually a little more sordid by now. You've got recent polls saying that Biden, Sanders, Buttigieg are in a kind of a dead heat. And then at the same time, I think you were telling me this on the phone the other day, there's a lot of undecided voters a month out.

[Eric Latch]

A lot. And, you know, everybody here, a lot of people are like, nobody knows what's going on. A lot of people are bracing for, you know, there's gonna be so many candidates represented on caucus night. You know, caucuses are not just going into a voting booth and voting by yourself. Right. It's this kind of, you know, it's this public kind of like almost like voting melee or something, you know, where it's like everybody gets into a room and has to go into the corner and support their candidate and then rearrange. And there's gonna be so many different competing interests.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Like electoral musical chairs.

[Eric Latch]

Exactly. So that part of it, people are bracing for something very messy. People are also. The polls show it. When I go to events and talk to people. You go to a Biden event, you say you're a Biden supporter. No. Well, I'm just kind of still kind of weighing things. I'm still kind of considering things. And these are not, quote, unquote, low information voters. These are veteran activists, veteran political people in the state who are saying, I'm gonna go into caucus night not knowing where I'm gonna go. And I think the reason for that, I mean, there's a few reasons for that, but I think there was polling suggesting that voters were more interested in electability than values. So traditionally, people look for candidates who share their values. And the polling early on this cycle was suggesting that people were looking for somebody who could just beat Trump.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

So that' crucial point, isn't it, that what voters are looking for more than anything, and I'm not saying all of them, but a lot of them, and they tell pollsters this is who can beat Donald Trump. And what are voters saying about what's necessary to beat Donald Trump? Because it varies wildly. Some people say I'm for Biden because he will have appeal in Michigan and Pennsylvania and Ohio and Florida and the rest. Some people say that Bernie Sanders has the best chance because he has the passion behind him. He has the best ground game, which we used to hear about Elizabeth Warren, but there's more juice behind him. Clarity of vision. How do you see it?

[Eric Latch]

Yeah, I think it's just a really hard thing for voters to wrestle with because it's not just asking them to vote on how they feel or how they think of themselves ideologically. In other words, look inward. It's like they have to look outward. They have to make a kind of tactical choice. And, like, how is somebody supposed to sort that out? For themselves. It's hard.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

When you were driving around east of Des Moines, west of Des Moines, north and south and all around the state, who's got the most signs on the front lawn? Who's got the best ground game? That's evident to you?

[Eric Latch]

Warren and Buttigieg are kind of the most ubiquitous. I think the yard signs, it's a tough measure. Who's got the most billboards in the state? Tulsi Gabbard.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Why would that be?

[Eric Latch]

It's just a particular choice that her supporters made. She's also got these, rather than these like little lawn signs, you know, the kind of like two foot by one foot little things that you just stick in with two little stakes. There's these big banners that are like maybe 20ft long that you see around that people are putting up in their front lawns on too big, like almost like tetherball poles or something with these giant Tulsi signs. I mean, Gabbard has her die hard supporters here. They might not be numerous by the polls, but there's definitely people who have given over their front lawns to Tulsi Gabbard for the better part of a year here.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Why has Elizabeth Warren faded?

[Eric Latch]

Yeah, it's a good question, and it's a question I'm asking a lot of people here. The media's focus on Medicare for All and her navigating of her Medicare for All plan, you know, that's one theory that said, you know, the polls are still kind of moving around. And this morning a poll came out and she was kind of back up nationally. And it's hard to say. This upcoming debate here in Des Moines is a chance for her to remind her folks that she's still very much in it.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

When people come away from covering the Iowa caucuses, they either come back thinking this is the craziest way to run a railroad, meaning a democracy imaginable, or they come back with their hearts singing about how wonderful and close to the ground this is and it's the embodiment of American democracy. How do you feel about it?

[Eric Latch]

Both. Yes is my answer. You know, these cycles have happened long enough in Iowa that it's not only that people are coming out to see the candidates this time, but that people have very long memories of past campaigns. And that's interesting and exciting and kind of admirable to talk to people who remember 2004, remember 2008, remember the 80s, the 90s, and are participating in a process that means a lot to them over the long term. That said, why did the Democratic Party just spend a year campaigning in Iowa for the polls to more or less be at the same place they were at the beginning of the year. Why is the first state to vote a place that is overwhelmingly white? The caucuses are a very romantic and interesting process, but it's a tough process to participate in. And even in a really great year, turnout, you know, never tops 20%. So it's still a kind of. It's a.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

But hang on. That Turnout never tops 20% of registered Democratic voters.

[Eric Latch]

No, I mean, it's a. You know, it's. Caucusing means you have to go to a caucus site at a particular time on a particular night and be there for three plus hours and navigate all of these complicated rules. And that's daunting and tough for people, you know, and it's like investment.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Yeah.

[Eric Latch]

Yeah. I mean, I've talked to many people who are caucusing for the first time or for the first time in a while this year. And when you say why, they say, well, our kids are in college now. You know, our kids were growing up. You know, we couldn't go caucus. We were little kids.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Who could really lose big in Iowa and come out of it really damaged among the front runners. And who stands to gain the most?

[Eric Latch]

You can imagine a scenario where if Joe Biden, with his electability pitch, essentially comes in third or fourth, that's gonna be tough to kind of explain moving forward. And you could imagine Pete Buttigieg is a kind of unproven and new face. You know, if he comes in fourth, that's also gonna be kind of tough to move on from. At the same time, potentially, it's plausible that four different candidates will win the four early primary states, and then Super Tuesday will come, and nobody will remember what happened in Iowa anyway. You know, so it's just kind of. It's just kind of like nobody knows. That's the thing.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

What a mess. Eric, we'll be reading you in newyorker.com and hearing from you soon. Thank you so much.

[Eric Latch]

Thanks, David.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Thanks. Eric Latch is covering the primary campaign, and you can find his reporting from Iowa and other [e-mail].

[Katie Drummond]

What the hell is going on right now, and why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis. And maybe you are, Katie. I'm Katie Drummond, the global editorial director of Wired, and I'm hosting our new podcast series, the Big Interview. Each week, I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big Interview conversations are fun.

[Eric Latch]

I want a shark that that eats.

[Katie Drummond]

The Internet, that turns it all off, unfiltered and unafraid.

[Eric Latch]

So in a lot of ways, I try to be an antidote to the unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online. To the best of my ability.

[Katie Drummond]

Every week we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of our times meaning and context. True or false? You, Brian Johnson, the man sitting across from me, one day, at some point, as of yet undefined in the future, you will die. False. Tell me more. Listen to the Big Interview right now, in the same place you find WIRED's Uncanny Valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.

[Eric Latch]

From.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

PRX.