Podcast Summary

The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: In Iowa, the Democratic Candidates Respond to the Conflict with Iran
Date: January 13, 2020
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Eric Latch (reporting from Iowa)

Episode Overview

This episode explores how the sudden escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions, triggered by the killing of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, has upended the Democratic presidential primary campaign in Iowa. Host Dorothy Wickenden interviews The New Yorker’s Eric Latch, who has been following candidates and voters on the ground in the critical early-voting state. Together, they discuss candidate responses to Iran, shifting voter priorities, and the unique, sometimes chaotic, nature of the Iowa caucuses.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Iowa Campaign Experience

• Intimacy Amid Scale: Despite Iowa’s importance and growing event sizes, the campaign still feels personal compared to national rallies.

  • Eric observes that even a "big rally is still 800 people," and that many Iowans value personal connections:

    “The Iowa voters you meet tend to talk more about like, well, I've shaken this person's hand... and I'm gonna make my decision after I've shaken this other person's hand.” (03:06 - Eric Latch)

• Atmosphere: Campaign events have moved beyond coffee shops and diners to high school gyms and auditoriums as caucus day nears, but the "living room politics" ethos endures.

2. Impact of the Iran Crisis on the Democratic Race (03:09–06:50)

• Sudden Shift: The killing of Soleimani abruptly shifted campaign focus from domestic policy to foreign policy and war, a change especially acute in Iowa, which holds deep historical memories of how war shaped previous races.

• Candidate Responses:

  • Joe Biden & Pete Buttigieg issued statements condemning Soleimani’s actions but questioning the Trump administration’s tactics and strategy—“a tactical critique.”
  • Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Andrew Yang focused on the anti-war message, positioning themselves stridently against a new Middle East conflict.
  • The split in messaging echoes earlier caucus dynamics about war and peace (notably 2008).

• Perceived Strengths:

  • Despite Biden's Iraq war baggage, polling and anecdote suggest voters see him as most “reliable” or trustworthy on foreign policy, based on experience rather than ideology.

    "It's less an ideological pitch than it is almost an emotional one... ‘Let me just worry about it.’" (05:21 – Eric Latch)

• Buttigieg’s Challenge and Opportunity:

  • His short military service provides credibility, but his framing—representing the “generation that filled the ranks post-9/11”—might resonate more than mere résumé points.

3. Iowa Voter Uncertainty & Electability Focus (06:50–09:35)

• Dead Heat and Uncertainty:

  • Polls show Biden, Sanders, and Buttigieg neck and neck; huge numbers of undecided voters remain.
  • Events feature attendees who, even at the candidate’s own rallies, are still weighing their options.

    "You go to a Biden event... Well, I'm just kind of still kind of weighing things... These are not 'low information' voters." (07:41 – Eric Latch)

• Caucus Chaos:

  • The caucus process is communal, public, and feels chaotic—a "voting melee," likened to "electoral musical chairs."

    “It’s this public kind of, like, almost voting melee or something.” (07:12 – Eric Latch)

• Electability vs. Values:

  • Early polling pointed to a shift: voters seek the candidate most likely to beat Trump, not the one who best matches their own values.

    “Polling early on this cycle was suggesting that people were looking for somebody who could just beat Trump.” (08:33 – Eric Latch)

• Subjectivity of Beating Trump:

  • Voters disagree on what “beating Trump” requires—some see Biden’s broad appeal as key; others believe Sanders’ passionate base or “ground game” makes him more viable.

4. Campaign Visibility: Ground Game & Candidate Momentum (09:35–10:38)

• Visibility Indicators:

  • Warren and Buttigieg: Most visible yard signs.
  • Tulsi Gabbard: Unexpectedly, the most billboards, including large-scale banners on private lawns.

    “There’s these big banners that are like maybe 20ft long...” (10:02 – Eric Latch)

  • Gabbard may have low poll numbers, but clearly retains a passionate base.

• Elizabeth Warren’s Fade and Possible Comeback:

  • Media focus on Medicare for All and strategic difficulties handling its details may have hurt her; yet, polls remain volatile and debates could offer a rebound opportunity.

5. Iowa’s Unique Democratic Process—Strengths and Weaknesses (11:10–13:21)

• Rich Tradition and Deep Memory:

  • Many voters recall past cycles and feel ongoing connection to the process; longtime engagement is common.
  • Iowa politics feels “close to the ground” but is also “the craziest way to run a railroad" (democracy)—deeply personal yet structurally strange.

• Critiques of Demographics and Turnout:

  • Iowa is overwhelmingly white; caucus participation demands several hours at a set time, deterring turnout.
  • “Even in a really great year, turnout never tops 20%.” (12:38 – Eric Latch)

6. Stakes for the Leading Candidates (13:21–14:13)

• Risks and Rewards:

  • Biden’s "electability" argument might be irreparably damaged by a third- or fourth-place finish.
  • Buttigieg, a new figure on the national stage, faces similar risks.
  • Four different winners in the four early states is plausible, suggesting Iowa’s lasting impact may be overstated.

  “Potentially, it’s plausible that four different candidates will win the four early primary states, and then Super Tuesday will come and nobody will remember what happened in Iowa anyway.” (14:07 – Eric Latch)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Intimacy of Iowa Politics:

  “The Iowa voters you meet tend to talk more about like, well, I've shaken this person's hand, and I'm gonna make my decision after I've shaken this other person's hand.”
  — Eric Latch (03:06)

• On the Debate’s Shift Due to the Iran Crisis:

  “That's clearly changed with the killing of Qassem Soleimani… How has Soleimani's death shaken up the Democratic primary so far?”
  — Dorothy Wickenden (03:22)

• On Biden’s Foreign Policy Appeal:

  “You can just count on me to just take care of it… It's less an ideological pitch than it is almost an emotional one…”
  — Eric Latch (05:21)

• On the Messiness of the Caucus:

  “It's this public kind of like almost voting melee or something…”
  — Eric Latch (07:12)

• On Iowa Turnout and Accessibility:

  “Caucusing means you have to go to a caucus site at a particular time on a particular night and be there for three-plus hours… that's daunting and tough... even in a really great year, turnout... never tops 20%.”
  — Eric Latch (12:44)

Important Timestamps

• [02:24] — On following candidates and what the pre-caucus atmosphere feels like
• [03:36] — Analysis of candidate responses to Soleimani’s killing
• [05:21] — Biden's emotional pitch on foreign policy
• [06:50] — Buttigieg's positioning on foreign policy and generational military experience
• [07:41] — Iowa voter indecision and the nature of the caucus process
• [08:33] — Voter focus on electability
• [09:49] — Indicators of ground game strength, yard signs, and billboards
• [10:38] — Discussion of Warren’s campaign trajectory
• [12:38] — Iowa's turnout challenges and structural limitations
• [14:13] — Risks for candidates in Iowa and the possible fleeting impact of its results

Conclusion

This episode provides a vivid picture of the Iowa campaign trail as foreign policy surges to the forefront of Democratic primary politics. The conversation underscores the peculiar intimacy, messiness, and uncertainty of the Iowa caucuses. Both veteran voters and candidates are navigating new terrain after Soleimani's death, and electability—now more subjective than ever—dominates caucus-goer concerns. With considerable uncertainty among voters and possible volatility in primary results, the podcast offers a nuanced, on-the-ground view of American democracy in action—warts and all.