ISIS vs. Europe

Summary

The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: ISIS vs. Europe

Date: March 24, 2016
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Dexter Filkins

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Overview

This episode focuses on ISIS's expanding reach into Europe following recent terrorist attacks in Brussels and Paris. Dorothy Wickenden interviews New Yorker staff writer Dexter Filkins to examine ISIS’s evolving tactics, the propaganda war, failures in intelligence coordination, and the repercussions for both European and American politics. The conversation also delves into the unique challenges facing Muslim communities in Europe, the effectiveness of U.S. counterterrorism strategies, and the ongoing political debates around the response to ISIS.

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Key Discussion Points

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1. ISIS’s Shifting Tactics and Propaganda (02:18 – 04:24)

• Attacks in Europe: In the wake of the Brussels attacks that killed 34, Filkins explains that ISIS seems more active in Europe now, but this is less a new goal and more a reaction to losses in Iraq and Syria.
  • "I don't think they've changed. I do think that they're getting hit pretty hard in Iraq and Syria... They’ve lost a lot of territory, probably 20%... in Syria, as much as 40% in Iraq." — Dexter Filkins (02:48)
• Recruitment Power: ISIS has successfully attracted about 38,000 foreign fighters—7,000 of them Westerners, mostly from Europe. The recruitment relies heavily on propaganda and targeting isolated youths.
• Propaganda Strategy: The group's "evil genius" for propaganda attracts not only born Muslims but a significant percentage of converts.
  • "Estimates are that as many as 40% of the Europeans that have gone to Syria to fight are converts to Islam, which is kind of an interesting twist." — Dexter Filkins (03:59)

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2. Roots of Radicalization: Europe vs. the Middle East (04:24 – 06:05)

• Social Factors: Frustration and lack of opportunities among young men, particularly in places like Tunisia and parts of Europe, are identified as root causes for susceptibility to ISIS’s messaging.
• ISIS vs. Al Qaeda: Filkins draws a distinction between ISIS's state-building ambitions (actual territory) and Al Qaeda’s historically networked, stateless model:
  • "Their predecessor in Iraq was Al Qaeda... [ISIS's leader] said, I'm going to take territory, I'm going to hold it." — Dexter Filkins (04:38)
• Eclipsing Al Qaeda: With its strong propaganda machine and territorial control, ISIS has overtaken Al Qaeda in terms of influence and perception.

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3. Intelligence Failures and Isolated Communities (06:05 – 07:13)

• Belgian Networks: Connections between old jihadi networks in Belgium and radical groups in London have provided fertile ground for ISIS recruitment.
• Lack of Intelligence Sharing: European agencies often fail to share vital information—despite "chatter on the wire" and mass arrests, attacks still occur.
  • "I am struck... by just how little the intelligence agencies knew or how little information they shared with each other." — Dexter Filkins (06:32)

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4. Political Fallout: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the “Propaganda War at Home” (07:13 – 08:36)

• Exploiting Fear: Attacks are seized upon by politicians—Ted Cruz blames Obama and calls for patrolling Muslim neighborhoods, while Hillary Clinton swiftly rebuffs these ideas as counterproductive and dangerous.
  • "[Cruz] said... police here need to patrol Muslim neighborhoods before they become radicalized." — Dorothy Wickenden (07:13)
  • "When Republican candidates like Ted Cruz call for treating American Muslims like criminals... it's wrong, it's counterproductive, it's dangerous." — Hillary Clinton (07:13)
• Difference Between U.S. and Europe: American Muslim communities are more integrated than European ones, but fear-mongering nonetheless carries dangers.
  • "They're not radicalized. They're not even isolated. And when you hear presidential candidates talk about some of the measures that they're proposing, it's a little scary because you think that this is exactly the thing that's going to radicalize communities..." — Dexter Filkins (07:59)
• Consensus on Military Policy: Despite campaign rhetoric about “bombing more” or “torturing more,” none of the leading candidates advocate for U.S. ground troops in Syria.

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5. The Intelligence Coordination Challenge (09:52 – 12:13)

• European Difficulties: Coordination remains a serious obstacle—numerous national agencies, limited information sharing.
  • "You have all these different intelligence agencies, whether they're in France or Belgium or Germany, and they don't share their information." — Dexter Filkins (10:11)
• U.S. Lessons: References to pre-9/11 failures illustrate that the U.S. has improved, but vulnerabilities persist.
• Illustrative Case: The story of Moner Mohammad Abusalh, an American who joined Al Nusra in Syria and carried out a suicide bombing, underscores the challenge of tracking foreign fighters.
  • "No one in the American intelligence agencies knew that he was over there until they saw his martyrdom video." — Dexter Filkins (11:14)

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6. The Future for Europe: Open Borders and Security (12:13 – 13:57)

• Schengen Under Pressure: The EU’s open internal borders are being seriously questioned; attackers' ability to move freely across national lines has become a major vulnerability.
  • "The whole principle of the European Union is open borders internally... I think that's one of the founding principles of the European idea, but... increasingly that is seen as no longer tenable." — Dexter Filkins (12:19)
• European Union Identity Crisis: The refugee crisis, terrorism, and economic troubles threaten the founding purpose of European unity.
• Historical Turning Point: Belgium’s PM is quoted: “We are being confronted with a new stage in the history of Europe.”

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7. The Syrian Deadlock and Global Paralysis (13:57 – 15:58)

• Syria as the Epicenter: No effective political or military plan exists among Western or Russian powers to end ISIS or resolve the conflict; debate persists on whether to keep Assad in power as a grim means to “stabilize” the region.
  • "Increasingly, it's hard to tell the difference between Putin's idea about Assad and the White House's idea, which I think is, we hate Assad... but to allow him to fall and ... the Syrian state to collapse would be... even more and greater chaos." — Dexter Filkins (14:43)
• Global Stalemate: Despite widespread agreement that both ISIS and Assad must go, there is no consensus or viable operational plan.
  • "Everybody can agree that ISIS is terrible and everybody agrees that Assad is evil, but then what? And nobody wants to send ground troops." — Dexter Filkins (15:28)
  • "It's the great tragedy of our time, and everybody's just staring at it, wondering what they can do." — Dexter Filkins (15:53)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ISIS's Draw for Young People:
  • "They look into their future, and they don't see much. And then they see Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in the desert saying, come and fight. Come and fight and be somebody." — Dexter Filkins (04:38)
• On European Disunity in Intelligence:
  • "They all but said, we knew this was coming and we couldn't figure it out. There was so much chatter on the wire... and they still couldn't get them." — Dexter Filkins (06:32)
• On American Political Rhetoric:
  • "It's basically a competition about, you know, who would bomb more and who would torture more." — Dexter Filkins (08:36)
• On the Syrian Stalemate:
  • "It's the great tragedy of our time, and everybody's just staring at it, wondering what they can do." — Dexter Filkins (15:53)

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Important Timestamps

• 02:18: Introduction to ISIS attacks in Brussels and the shift toward attacks in Europe.
• 03:29: Discussion on the scale of foreign ISIS recruits and their backgrounds.
• 04:24: Analysis of the appeal of ISIS to alienated young people.
• 06:32: Examination of intelligence failings in Europe.
• 07:13: American presidential candidates' responses to terrorism and their implications.
• 09:52: Intelligence agency coordination and illustrative case of an American fighter.
• 12:13: Consequences of open borders in Europe and pressure on the EU.
• 13:57: Reflection on whether Europe is entering a new historical phase.
• 14:43: Debate on the West's and Russia's positions regarding Assad.
• 15:28: Concluding on the global paralysis over Syria and ISIS.

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Summary

In this thoughtful, in-depth discussion, Dexter Filkins and Dorothy Wickenden dissect the complex factors behind ISIS’s infiltration into Europe, the enormous challenges of counterterrorism intelligence, and the global policy deadlock surrounding Syria. The episode critically assesses both the successes and failures of Western responses—military, political, and cultural—while highlighting the broader historical stakes for Europe and the world.

Transcript

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[Podcast Host]

This is the political scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about Politics. It's Thursday, March 24th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the.

[Dexter Filkins]

New Yorker, and this is yet another reminder that the world must unite. We must be together, regardless of nationality or race or faith in fighting against the scourge of terrorism. We can and we will defeat those who threaten the safety and security of people all around the world.

[Podcast Host]

That was President Obama on Tuesday speaking about the ISIS attacks that day in Brussels in which 34 people were killed. Dexter Filkins is here to discuss ISIS in Europe and the propaganda war. Not long ago, the west didn't really worry so much about isis. It was seen as a movement focused on building a caliphate in the Middle East. Then, of course, came the attack in Paris four months ago and the bombings in Brussels this week. Have ISIS's goals changed, or did we just misread their intentions?

[Dexter Filkins]

I don't think they've changed. I do think that they're getting hit pretty hard in Iraq and Syria. It's hard to notice, but they've lost a lot of territory, probably 20% of the territory they had in Syria, as much as 40% in Iraq. And I think it's easy for them to hit Europe because, you know, there are large Muslim communities there across the continent, and so they can tap that pretty easily. But I wouldn't go as far as to say this is a measure of their desperation, but I do think that it's connected. This was not an original goal of theirs, but I think it's in retaliation for as hard as they're being hit.

[Podcast Host]

They'Ve lost something like 10,000 men and need to, of course, continue bringing in new recruits.

[Dexter Filkins]

That's the thing. I mean, the numbers are really extraordinary. Isis, since they were born in the desert, you know, only four or five years ago, they've drawn about 38,000 foreigners to come and fight with him. I mean, think of that. 38,000 people. About 7,000 of those are Westerners, most of them from Europe.

[Podcast Host]

Talk about that a little bit. ISIS really has an evil genius for propaganda, and obviously they use attacks like this to lure in more recruits.

[Dexter Filkins]

They do. I think what this speaks to is first, the isolation of some of the Muslim communities in Europe and how isolated an individual can become sitting on his computer in the Internet. But I was just interviewing somebody yesterday, actually, and, you know, the estimates are that as many as 40% of the Europeans that have gone to Syria to fight are converts to Islam, which is kind of an interesting twist. I'd never heard that.

[Podcast Host]

George Packer wrote recently in the magazine about Tunisia, which was, of course, the heart of the Arab Spring, and how vulnerable teenage Tunisians are to the message of jihad. Why aren't we winning the war of ideas with young people?

[Dexter Filkins]

I mean, Tunisia is different than Europe, but I think these are frustrated young men sitting around without anything to do. And they look into their future, and they don't see much. And then they see Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in the desert saying, come and fight. Come and fight and be somebody. One thing that looms, I think, over all of this ISIS's. Their predecessor in Iraq was Al Qaeda. They always shunned the idea of holding territory. And Abu Bakr al Baghdadi said, I'm going to take territory, I'm going to hold it. I'm going to be a state. And so here's this place the size of Wyoming, where people can actually go and they can actually visualize it, and there's a government and there's a state, and I think that's very, very attractive.

[Podcast Host]

And where is Al Qaeda in all of this?

[Dexter Filkins]

Well, they're kind of sitting on the sidelines. Sitting on the sidelines. Certainly in Europe, in Syria, they've been relegated to this group called Jabhat al Nusra. And they fight ISIS in Syria. They rarely get together, even though ostensibly they're both fighting to topple the regime of Bashar al Assad. And then there's still remnants of Al Qaeda all across the Middle east and South Asia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen. But they've really been decimated over the years. I mean, their ranks have been very, very thinned. And I think as ISIS has gotten stronger and as they've cranked up this really extraordinary propaganda machine that they have, you're seeing Al Qaeda really being eclipsed. At least I think, in the terms of perception, they're being eclipsed in numbers, too, actually.

[Podcast Host]

Help us understand a little bit about Belgium itself. Ben Taube wrote for the magazine not so long ago about the connection between Belgium's pre ISIS jihadi networks and a radical group in London that provides ideological training for potential jihadis. It's kind of remarkable. For all of the money and arms that have gone into exporting democracy into the Middle east, the west seems to be losing the propaganda wars. Isn't this a key part of intelligence work?

[Dexter Filkins]

It is. I am struck, I think everybody's struck by just how little the intelligence agencies knew or how little information they shared with each other. I mean, if you look at some of the statements of Belgian and French officials after these attacks, they all but said, we knew this was coming and we couldn't figure it out. There was so much chatter on the wire about people talking, people moving, and they've arrested hundreds of people and they still couldn't get them. And again, I think that that sp speaks to the neighborhoods in Belgium where these guys hatch their plot. I think they're really cut off. They're really isolated. And when the police come in there and start asking questions, nobody cooperates.

[Podcast Host]

All right, we have to turn to the presidential race because the Brussels attacks, obviously are now a big Part of that, Ted Cruz blamed Obama, unsurprisingly, the weakness and appeasement, as he put it, of the Obama administration for fueling isis. And he also said that police here need to patrol Muslim neighborhoods before they become radicalized. Then Hillary Clinton had a rapid response. So when Republican candidates like Ted Cruz call for treating American Muslims like criminals and for racially profiling predominantly Muslim neighborhoods, it's wrong, it's counterproductive, it's dangerous. So what about the propaganda wars at home, Dexter? I mean, fear mongering works. We've seen that with Donald Trump's campaign. That's what it's all been about.

[Dexter Filkins]

It does work. But I think that there's a big difference between Europe and the United States. Europe has a real problem dealing with its Muslim communities. I mean, we've seen that. We haven't had historically the same problems in the United States. The Muslim community here, they're completely mainstream. They're not radicalized. They're not even isolated. And when you hear presidential candidates talk about some of the measures that they're proposing, it's a little scary because you think that this is exactly the thing that's going to radicalize communities and it's going to push people into the shadows.

[Podcast Host]

Trump's talking about waterboarding terrorism suspects.

[Dexter Filkins]

Yeah, I mean, it's basically a competition about, you know, who would bomb more and who would torture more. But I think what's notable about all these candidates is that not one of them is suggesting putting troops on the ground in Syria, combat troops. No one is suggesting fighting. So what can they talk about? They can talk about dropping more bombs, or they can talk about torturing people. But there is no public support in the United States for going into a ground war in Syria and Iraq, which, you know, would conceivably at least could eliminate the problem, but nobody wants to do that. So in a way, there's actually quite a consensus across the board. I think the only candidate who suggested putting troops on the ground was Lindsey Graham. And, you know, I think he polled, like, at 1%, and he's now back.

[Podcast Host]

Ted Cruz.

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But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

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Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story.

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[Podcast Host]

So what about actual intelligence gathering? The CIA used to rely heavily on human intelligence abroad, and the FBI had its own role here. They were really hampered by their unwillingness to work together. Now we have this vast counterterrorism structure. How well does it seem to be coordinating information?

[Dexter Filkins]

We should start off by just talking about Europe's coordination. I think that there's just an enormous frustration in Europe that you have all these different intelligence agencies, whether they're in France or Belgium or Germany, and they don't share their information. And they're supposed to share their information, and they don't. And you can say, wow, that's really remarkable. Why don't you just share your information? It's hard for intelligence agencies to do that. And we know that from our own experience in the months before 9 11. It's one of the great scenes in our colleague Larry Wright's book, the Looming Tower. The Looming Tower. The CIA knew that two really bad guys who had been at a meeting of terrorists in Malaysia had entered the United States. And two of these guys ultimately were involved in the 911 attacks. And they didn't tell the FBI that they were here. And the FBI was begging the CIA for more information, and they wouldn't share the information. So we've seen this problem before, and we've seen it at home. I think the intelligence sharing in the United States is much better. But I think that if you look at. There was a young man from Sebastian, Florida, named Monor Mohammad Abusalh, who had recently graduated from high school. He flew to Syria. He joined the Al Nusra Front, which is the Al Qaeda franchise there. He trained with them. He came back to the United States. He played basketball with his friends, hung out for a while, went back to Syria, carried out a suicide bombing and killed 140 people. And no one in the American intelligence agencies knew that he was over there until they saw his martyrdom video. You know, that's how hard it is to track people. Although I want to jump back, because in the papers this morning, the Turkish President Erdogan was quoted as saying that they had turned back one of the men who eventually became one of the bombers. He was trying to cross from Turkey into Syria, and they picked him up and they deported him. This is last year, they deported him back to the Netherlands and said, here's a bad guy. We think he's a terrorist. You should detain him. And nothing happened. So somebody clearly dropped the ball.

[Podcast Host]

So what do you think going forward? First of all, just in Europe what changes are likely to be made?

[Dexter Filkins]

In the past, there have been suggestions and laws and even a sort of tiny agency to gather and share intelligence better. And so I think we're going to probably see a lot of that. The whole principle of the European Union is open borders internally. So if you're in Germany, you can go to France without a visa and you can go to Italy without a visa. But I think these terrorist attacks are putting that whole regime, that whole idea in question. All these guys, most of the bombers had traveled to Syria and back, and they essentially migrated. And once they got into Europe, they were able to move freely anywhere else in Europe. And so if you look at the Paris attacks, they were hatched in Paris, they were planned in Belgium. They came back, they went to Syria, they came back to France and to Belgium. They can just move freely anywhere they want. And I think that's one of the founding principles of the European idea and the European Union. But I think that increasingly that is seen as no longer tenable.

[Podcast Host]

And is this under discussion in the eu?

[Dexter Filkins]

Absolutely. You know, no one wants to go there. The creation of a united Europe is one of the great accomplishments of the 20th century, you know, and we can see now that it's under threat not merely because of the financial crisis and all the problems that they're having, but also from the massive refugee crisis they're having, and now the terrorism problem, which has kind of grown out of that.

[Podcast Host]

What you're saying reminds me that actually John Cassidy wrote this in a blog, I believe, this week for the New Yorker. Last year, Belgium's PR said, after a New Year's plot was uncovered in Brussels, he said, I believe that we are being confronted with a new stage in the history of Europe. Do you agree with that?

[Dexter Filkins]

I think so. It's hard to imagine that they're not going to start to check visas at the border. I think the larger problem here is what to do in Syria and Syria and Iraq. This is the source of the problem, really, ultimately. And it's a black hole in the Middle East. It's getting bigger. It's flooding Europe with refugees. Ultimately, the world is going to have to figure out a way to bring the terrible civil war in Syria to an end.

[Podcast Host]

And no one, no one has any idea how to do it.

[Dexter Filkins]

No. Except that the Russians decided that the best way to stabilize things was to keep Bashar al Assad in power, who, you know, would be indicted for war crimes tomorrow if he landed in Europe.

[Podcast Host]

What do you think about that choice?

[Dexter Filkins]

I got into an argument last night with a former official in the Obama administration about this. But increasingly, it's hard to tell the difference between Putin's idea about Assad and the White House's idea, which I think is, we hate Assad. He's a terrible human being. He's probably guilty of genocide. But to allow him to fall and to allow the Syrian state to collapse would be a prescription for even more and greater chaos and more terrorism than we have until now. So what do we do? So we're stuck with this kind of terrible human being that the Russians have decided to keep in power.

[Podcast Host]

Well, and that'll be a question that'll come up during the general election campaign here. Let's say it's Trump versus Hillary, which seems likely at this point. Do they have different assessments of that?

[Dexter Filkins]

I don't think anybody knows what to do here. So everybody can agree that ISIS is terrible and everybody agrees that Assad is evil, but then what? And nobody wants to send ground troops. And so this is why the world is stuck. You know, we're in year five, a half million people dead, something like nine million people homeless, either refugees or displaced internally, and nobody has any ideas about how to fix this. It's the great tragedy of our time, and everybody's just staring at it, wondering what they can do.

[Podcast Host]

Thanks so much, Dexter. Dexter Filkins is a staff writer and the author of the Forever War. This has been the Political Scene from the New Yorker. This podcast is produced by Alex barron. For new yorker.com, i'm Dorothy Wickenden.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

You can subscribe to this and other New Yorker podcasts in the Itunes store. You can find past episodes of the New Yorker out loud, the Political Scene and the New Yorker's fiction and poetry [e-mail] podcast the weekly audio edition of the New Yorker is [e-mail] what the hell is going on right now and why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis, and maybe you are, too. I'm Katie Drummond, the global editorial director of Wired, and I'm hosting our new PODC podcast series, the Big Interview. Each week I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big Interview conversations are fun.

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