The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: ISIS vs. Europe

Date: March 24, 2016
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Dexter Filkins

Overview

This episode focuses on ISIS's expanding reach into Europe following recent terrorist attacks in Brussels and Paris. Dorothy Wickenden interviews New Yorker staff writer Dexter Filkins to examine ISIS’s evolving tactics, the propaganda war, failures in intelligence coordination, and the repercussions for both European and American politics. The conversation also delves into the unique challenges facing Muslim communities in Europe, the effectiveness of U.S. counterterrorism strategies, and the ongoing political debates around the response to ISIS.

Key Discussion Points

1. ISIS’s Shifting Tactics and Propaganda (02:18 – 04:24)

• Attacks in Europe: In the wake of the Brussels attacks that killed 34, Filkins explains that ISIS seems more active in Europe now, but this is less a new goal and more a reaction to losses in Iraq and Syria.
  • "I don't think they've changed. I do think that they're getting hit pretty hard in Iraq and Syria... They’ve lost a lot of territory, probably 20%... in Syria, as much as 40% in Iraq." — Dexter Filkins (02:48)
• Recruitment Power: ISIS has successfully attracted about 38,000 foreign fighters—7,000 of them Westerners, mostly from Europe. The recruitment relies heavily on propaganda and targeting isolated youths.
• Propaganda Strategy: The group's "evil genius" for propaganda attracts not only born Muslims but a significant percentage of converts.
  • "Estimates are that as many as 40% of the Europeans that have gone to Syria to fight are converts to Islam, which is kind of an interesting twist." — Dexter Filkins (03:59)

2. Roots of Radicalization: Europe vs. the Middle East (04:24 – 06:05)

• Social Factors: Frustration and lack of opportunities among young men, particularly in places like Tunisia and parts of Europe, are identified as root causes for susceptibility to ISIS’s messaging.
• ISIS vs. Al Qaeda: Filkins draws a distinction between ISIS's state-building ambitions (actual territory) and Al Qaeda’s historically networked, stateless model:
  • "Their predecessor in Iraq was Al Qaeda... [ISIS's leader] said, I'm going to take territory, I'm going to hold it." — Dexter Filkins (04:38)
• Eclipsing Al Qaeda: With its strong propaganda machine and territorial control, ISIS has overtaken Al Qaeda in terms of influence and perception.

3. Intelligence Failures and Isolated Communities (06:05 – 07:13)

• Belgian Networks: Connections between old jihadi networks in Belgium and radical groups in London have provided fertile ground for ISIS recruitment.
• Lack of Intelligence Sharing: European agencies often fail to share vital information—despite "chatter on the wire" and mass arrests, attacks still occur.
  • "I am struck... by just how little the intelligence agencies knew or how little information they shared with each other." — Dexter Filkins (06:32)

4. Political Fallout: U.S. Presidential Campaigns and the “Propaganda War at Home” (07:13 – 08:36)

• Exploiting Fear: Attacks are seized upon by politicians—Ted Cruz blames Obama and calls for patrolling Muslim neighborhoods, while Hillary Clinton swiftly rebuffs these ideas as counterproductive and dangerous.
  • "[Cruz] said... police here need to patrol Muslim neighborhoods before they become radicalized." — Dorothy Wickenden (07:13)
  • "When Republican candidates like Ted Cruz call for treating American Muslims like criminals... it's wrong, it's counterproductive, it's dangerous." — Hillary Clinton (07:13)
• Difference Between U.S. and Europe: American Muslim communities are more integrated than European ones, but fear-mongering nonetheless carries dangers.
  • "They're not radicalized. They're not even isolated. And when you hear presidential candidates talk about some of the measures that they're proposing, it's a little scary because you think that this is exactly the thing that's going to radicalize communities..." — Dexter Filkins (07:59)
• Consensus on Military Policy: Despite campaign rhetoric about “bombing more” or “torturing more,” none of the leading candidates advocate for U.S. ground troops in Syria.

5. The Intelligence Coordination Challenge (09:52 – 12:13)

• European Difficulties: Coordination remains a serious obstacle—numerous national agencies, limited information sharing.
  • "You have all these different intelligence agencies, whether they're in France or Belgium or Germany, and they don't share their information." — Dexter Filkins (10:11)
• U.S. Lessons: References to pre-9/11 failures illustrate that the U.S. has improved, but vulnerabilities persist.
• Illustrative Case: The story of Moner Mohammad Abusalh, an American who joined Al Nusra in Syria and carried out a suicide bombing, underscores the challenge of tracking foreign fighters.
  • "No one in the American intelligence agencies knew that he was over there until they saw his martyrdom video." — Dexter Filkins (11:14)

6. The Future for Europe: Open Borders and Security (12:13 – 13:57)

• Schengen Under Pressure: The EU’s open internal borders are being seriously questioned; attackers' ability to move freely across national lines has become a major vulnerability.
  • "The whole principle of the European Union is open borders internally... I think that's one of the founding principles of the European idea, but... increasingly that is seen as no longer tenable." — Dexter Filkins (12:19)
• European Union Identity Crisis: The refugee crisis, terrorism, and economic troubles threaten the founding purpose of European unity.
• Historical Turning Point: Belgium’s PM is quoted: “We are being confronted with a new stage in the history of Europe.”

7. The Syrian Deadlock and Global Paralysis (13:57 – 15:58)

• Syria as the Epicenter: No effective political or military plan exists among Western or Russian powers to end ISIS or resolve the conflict; debate persists on whether to keep Assad in power as a grim means to “stabilize” the region.
  • "Increasingly, it's hard to tell the difference between Putin's idea about Assad and the White House's idea, which I think is, we hate Assad... but to allow him to fall and ... the Syrian state to collapse would be... even more and greater chaos." — Dexter Filkins (14:43)
• Global Stalemate: Despite widespread agreement that both ISIS and Assad must go, there is no consensus or viable operational plan.
  • "Everybody can agree that ISIS is terrible and everybody agrees that Assad is evil, but then what? And nobody wants to send ground troops." — Dexter Filkins (15:28)
  • "It's the great tragedy of our time, and everybody's just staring at it, wondering what they can do." — Dexter Filkins (15:53)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On ISIS's Draw for Young People:
  • "They look into their future, and they don't see much. And then they see Abu Bakr al Baghdadi in the desert saying, come and fight. Come and fight and be somebody." — Dexter Filkins (04:38)
• On European Disunity in Intelligence:
  • "They all but said, we knew this was coming and we couldn't figure it out. There was so much chatter on the wire... and they still couldn't get them." — Dexter Filkins (06:32)
• On American Political Rhetoric:
  • "It's basically a competition about, you know, who would bomb more and who would torture more." — Dexter Filkins (08:36)
• On the Syrian Stalemate:
  • "It's the great tragedy of our time, and everybody's just staring at it, wondering what they can do." — Dexter Filkins (15:53)

Important Timestamps

• 02:18: Introduction to ISIS attacks in Brussels and the shift toward attacks in Europe.
• 03:29: Discussion on the scale of foreign ISIS recruits and their backgrounds.
• 04:24: Analysis of the appeal of ISIS to alienated young people.
• 06:32: Examination of intelligence failings in Europe.
• 07:13: American presidential candidates' responses to terrorism and their implications.
• 09:52: Intelligence agency coordination and illustrative case of an American fighter.
• 12:13: Consequences of open borders in Europe and pressure on the EU.
• 13:57: Reflection on whether Europe is entering a new historical phase.
• 14:43: Debate on the West's and Russia's positions regarding Assad.
• 15:28: Concluding on the global paralysis over Syria and ISIS.

Summary

In this thoughtful, in-depth discussion, Dexter Filkins and Dorothy Wickenden dissect the complex factors behind ISIS’s infiltration into Europe, the enormous challenges of counterterrorism intelligence, and the global policy deadlock surrounding Syria. The episode critically assesses both the successes and failures of Western responses—military, political, and cultural—while highlighting the broader historical stakes for Europe and the world.