Jill Lepore and Patrick Radden Keefe on the politics of gun control after the Newtown shooting.

Summary

Podcast Summary

The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Episode: Jill Lepore and Patrick Radden Keefe on the Politics of Gun Control after the Newtown Shooting
Date: December 22, 2012
Host: Dorothy Wickenden

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Main Theme

This episode features a conversation between Dorothy Wickenden (Executive Editor, The New Yorker), Jill Lepore, and Patrick Radden Keefe, focusing on the aftermath of the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Newtown, Connecticut. The discussion explores the historical and political context of gun control in the United States, the National Rifle Association’s (NRA) response to mass shootings, and the possibilities for policy change in the wake of national tragedy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Context: Sandy Hook and Recent Mass Shootings

• Dorothy Wickenden lays out a list of mass shootings since 2004, underscoring the frequency and severity of such events post-expiration of the federal assault weapons ban.
  • "In the last five years, Virginia Tech, Fort Hood, Texas, the shooting of Representative Gabrielle Giffords ... Aurora, Colorado and last week, of course, the massacre of 26 children and adults at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut." [01:31]

2. Political Reactions

• President Obama vows to advance efforts to prevent gun violence, recognizing the complexity but insisting on action.

  • Barack Obama: “We won’t prevent them all, but that can’t be an excuse not to try. It won’t be easy. But that can’t be an excuse not to try.” [01:59]

• NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre holds a highly publicized press conference, laying out the association's unchanged position:

  • Wayne LaPierre: “The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun... Will you at least admit it’s possible that 26 innocent lives might have been spared that day?” [02:24]

3. NRA Policy and Strategy

• Jill Lepore recalls her interview with David Keene (NRA president), noting the organization's steadfast refusal to comment on specific shootings, thus avoiding reckoning with individual tragedies.

  • Jill Lepore: “We refuse to reckon with atrocity. We refuse to enter into a conversation about an actual shooting, because this conversation cannot and should not ever be about guns. Shootings are about mental illness.” [03:19]

• The NRA’s post-Sandy Hook plan: creation of the “National School Shield Program”—armed, trained personnel in schools.

  • Lepore points out the contradiction between fearing a police state and proposing a quasi-military presence in schools. [04:34]

4. The NRA’s Organizational Strength

• Patrick Radden Keefe argues that the NRA’s effectiveness is paradoxically heightened when under perceived threat, real or imagined:

  • “The more embattled the NRA appears to its own membership, the more successful it becomes as an organization.” [05:45]

• Even in times of government inaction, the NRA mobilizes its base around the idea that restrictive legislation is imminent, fueling spikes in gun sales and membership.

  • “You end up with this ... perverse scenario ... after one of these big shootings ... you tend to get ... a spike in gun sales and a kind of doubling down on this very expansive view of Second Amendment rights by the gun lobby.” [07:15]

5. Evolution of the NRA

• Lepore explains how the NRA shifted from a marksmanship and hunting group to a political powerhouse advocating expansive gun rights.
  • “The NRA was founded in 1871 ... largely recreational ... It’s not until after the assassination of John F. Kennedy that the possession of private firearms comes to be the subject of federal legislation..." [08:00]
  • A leadership coup in the 1970s redirected the organization toward politics and single-issue advocacy for gun ownership, leading to its modern incarnation. [08:00–09:49]

6. Counterarguments and the Opposition

• Keefe and Lepore discuss the flaws in the “good guy with a gun” argument, referencing incidents like the Empire State Building and Columbine where armed personnel failed to prevent violence or caused harm.
  • Jill Lepore: “Another example, of course, is Columbine, where there were two armed guards.” [10:52]
  • The NRA's superior organization and ability to sustain energy contrasts with often fleeting public outrage after tragedies.
  • “The NRA's secret has been organization... They're playing a slightly longer game than the program gun control groups are doing.” [10:56]

7. Prospects for Gun Control Legislation

• Keefe presents a “short menu” of conceivable legislative measures:

  • Reinstating federal assault weapons ban — considered an unlikely lift in the current Congress.
  • Banning high-capacity magazines — potentially more achievable.
  • Closing the federal background check loophole — significant support even among gun owners and NRA members.
  • “We don’t have real federal background checks for about 40% of the gun purchases in this country ... There’s support among gun owners and even NRA members for closing that loophole...” [12:17–14:07]

• Lepore highlights how far the Overton window has shifted—in politics, the judiciary, and culture—even Democrats and Obama campaigned on an NRA vision of Second Amendment rights.

  • “Frustratingly, we're pretty deep in a ditch ... even Obama during the campaign endorsed the NRA's vision of Second Amendment rights.” [14:09]

8. Political Realities and Future Prospects

• Both guests are skeptical of immediate major change, citing a lack of Republican willingness to cross party lines, and even some Democrats wavering only after immense public pressure.
  • Patrick Keefe: “If they haven’t come out in the last week, they’re not going to come out.” [15:27]
  • The sense that gun-rights advocates have withstood the latest intense wave of criticism, making subsequent change even less likely. [15:36]

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Obama’s Determination:

  • “We won’t prevent them all, but that can't be an excuse not to try.” – Barack Obama [01:59]

• The NRA’s Inflexible Dogma:

  • “The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun.” – Wayne LaPierre [02:24]

• Jill Lepore’s Insight on the NRA’s Logic:

  • “The Second Amendment grants us the right to bear arms, according to the nra, to protect ourselves from the tyranny of a police state, that we, in order to protect ourselves, from armed citizens.” [04:34]

• Keefe on NRA’s Paradox:

  • “The more embattled the NRA appears to its own membership, the more successful it becomes as an organization.” [05:45]

• Skepticism About Legislative Change:

  • “If they haven’t come out in the last week, they’re not going to come out.” – Patrick Keefe [15:27]

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Important Timestamps

• 01:14 – Introduction and context of the recent shootings
• 01:59 – Obama’s remarks on gun violence
• 02:24 – Wayne LaPierre’s press conference and NRA position
• 03:19 – Jill Lepore on the NRA’s traditional media strategy
• 04:34 – The “National School Shield Program” explanation
• 05:45 – Keefe on the paradox of NRA’s power
• 08:00–09:49 – Lepore on the history and transformation of the NRA
• 10:52 – Debate over efficacy of armed guards
• 12:17–14:07 – Possible gun control measures discussed
• 15:27 – Keefe on the lack of Republican support for change

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Tone and Language

The conversation is measured, analytical, and reflective, combining historical insight with current political analysis. Lepore and Keefe speak with authoritative knowledge and some frustration about the challenges of effecting policy change. Wickenden maintains a focused, journalistic tone, steering the dialogue to key issues and asking pointed questions.

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Summary Takeaway

The episode underscores both the entrenched power of the NRA and the formidable challenges of achieving gun control reform in the United States, especially after Sandy Hook. While public outrage and momentum for change spike after tragedies, the NRA’s deep organizational roots, ability to harness fear, and maintain a loyal base often stall or reverse potential progress. The path forward, according to the panel, would require not only public will but significant political coordination crossing party lines—a prospect viewed with cautious skepticism in the current climate.

Transcript

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about politics. It's Friday, December 21st. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. We're talking today about whether a tipping point has been reached on the issue of gun violence and gun control. Just for the record, since the expiration of the federal ban on assault weapons in 2004, this country has experienced the most concentrated and deadly series of mass shootings in American history. Let me just list them quickly. In the last five years Virginia Tech Fort Hood, Texas the shooting of Representative Gabrielle Giffords and others In Tucson Oakland, California Aurora, Colorado and last week, of course, the massacre of 26 children and adults at the Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut.

[Barack Obama]

So I will use all the powers of this office to help advance efforts aimed at preventing more tragedies like this. We won't prevent them all, but that can't be an excuse not to try. It won't be easy. But that can't be an excuse not to try.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

That was President Obama at a news conference on Wednesday. Earlier today, Wayne Lapierre held a press conference to explain the NRA's position.

[Wayne Lapierre]

The only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun. What if, when Adam Lanza started shooting his way into Sandy Hook Elementary School last Friday, he'd been confronted by qualified armed security? Will you at least admit it's possible that 26 innocent lives might have been spared that day?

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Jill Lepore and Patrick Keefe, both New Yorker staff writers, are here to talk about guns and politics. Jill, last year, you interviewed David Keen, the president of the nra, for your New Yorker piece on the subject. You asked him, among other things, if any gun atrocity had ever given him pause, and he told you that it is the NRA's policy never to comment on a shooting. Tell us why and how the NRA addressed the school shooting in Newtown.

[Jill Lepore]

Well, it was really, I think, surprising to a lot of people that they addressed it at all, because this policy has been in place for a very long time and has worked so well for the nra. So it's an exceptional moment in the organization's history. I was thinking this morning, though, watching the press conference, I was reminded last spring, the day before I went down, I was going to fly down to Washington to meet David Keen and interview him. And I was so surprised that he had even agreed to be interviewed, because the NRA doesn't really talk to the press very often. And I happened to be standing outside my kid's elementary school with a whole bunch of other parents who were sitting around drinking coffee and gabbing and delaying going to work. Going to work. And I said, you know, I'm going to interview the head of the nra. What should I ask him? They all said, how will the NRA know when it has gone too far? Which is a question I put to David Keene and whose answer was more or less the same as the NRA's typical answer, which is, we can't comment on that. We refuse to reckon with atrocity. We refuse to enter into a conversation about an actual shooting, because this conversation cannot and should not ever be about guns. Shootings are about mental illness. Which is one of the messages that Wayne lapierre offered at this morning's press conference.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

The other thing he really outlined a pretty specific program focused explicitly on protecting our school children, as he put it. Talk a little bit about that.

[Jill Lepore]

Yeah. So the proposal is to essentially have the NRA help train a nationwide, essentially military force to occupy our schools. Armed former policemen and servicemen and emergency workers who would guard the Schools under a program called the National School Shield Program. The proposal was that it would be put in place as soon as the first day of school in January. There seem to be some plans in development ahead of the program, who's a former director of Homeland Security, is appointed to be in charge of its development. And the thing that's striking, of course, about all of this is the tangled logic. The Second Amendment grants us the right to bear arms, according to the nra, to protect ourselves from the tyranny of a police state, that we, in order to protect ourselves from armed citizens.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Patrick For 40 years, the NRA has been possibly the most impregnable political force in American politics. And I was struck listening to lapierre today about how this has come to be the statement that he made that Jill was just talking about and how they take a tragedy like this and turn it to their use politically. Could you talk a little bit about that?

[Patrick Keefe]

Sure. I mean, I think to some extent this all turns on a kind of a paradox, which is that the. The more embattled the NRA appears to its own membership, the more successful it becomes as an organization. So there's this strange sense in which even efforts to really hold its feet to the fire as an organization can kind of backfire by strengthening the lobby. I mean, you see this even in years when things are going fairly well for the nra. So, you know, for instance, before Obama took office, there was this suggestion that he was going to come in and institute all kinds of very stringent gun control legislation, but he didn't. And he came in, and during his first term, he really did nothing. He essentially capitulated to the NRA agenda. And yet even so, the NRA was able to kind of put the word out as the 2012 election approached that no, in fact, you know, he was really just biding his time. It's really going to kick in. The gun control's really going to kick in in the second term. And this worked. It actually managed to rally the base. It got people buying guns, it got people going out to the polls to vote against Obama. So to look at the press conference that lapierre just did, I mean, on the one hand, I think as an address to the nation, as a kind of broad based effort to make the case to a skeptical public that we don't need greater gun control measures, it was sort of farcical, right? I mean, it was just one strawman after another. But as an appeal directly to the membership of the nra, I think it was probably really effective. And we don't know. I mean, the numbers are just beginning to come out. But I saw some numbers earlier today suggesting that there's actually been a spike in membership to the NRA just since the shooting a week ago. We also know there's been a spike in gun. So you end up with this, to my mind, slightly perverse scenario, right, where you have one of these big shootings and what you tend to get afterwards is actually not new legislation. What you get is a spike in gun sales and a kind of doubling down on this very expansive view of Second Amendment rights by the gun lobby.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Let's go back to earlier in time. Jill, I want you to talk a little bit about how the NRA was once really chiefly a sporting and hunting association. That, as I recall you put it, even supported some gun control laws, which seems, you know, unbelievable. Now why and how did that change?

[Jill Lepore]

It changed beginning in the 1960s. The NRA was founded in 1871 chiefly as a marksmanship organization to improve shooting skills and was largely recreational. It was also for hunters. But that's the NRA for the first century, really, of its history. It's not until after the assassination of John F. Kennedy that the possession of private firearms comes to be the subject of federal legislation in somewhat of a different sort. And the NRA was really just a kind of political arm of the growing conservative movement. It became clear to people like David Kean, who was an important player in national conservative politics beginning in the 1960s, that there were a number of voters who cared a lot about gun ownership and were concerned about gun legislation that was being debated by Congress in the 1960s and who could be mobilized to single issue voters and could be kind of converted to the cause of conservatism as a whole and sort of essentially produce kind of an army for a political movement that did not have large numbers in the late 60s and early 70s. So the movement was really taken over by a group of people who came from outside the movement. There was a coup in the middle of the 1970s where the old leadership of the NRA, which had decided in fact to move the organization's headquarters to Colorado. They were going to buy this huge tract of land and set up a sort of huge recreational range for shooters and really retreat from politics altogether. That old guard of the NRA was pushed out in a coup. It was essentially an overnight coup. And the new guard came in and decided, insisted that the organization retain its headquarters in Washington, D.C. that they changed the motto. The earlier motto was about hunting. The new motto was about the right to bear arms as a political right, and that's the NRA we know today.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

So, Patrick, we heard the NRA position. It was absolutely clear, and it has been, as lapierre put it, the only thing that stops a bad guy with a gun is a good guy with a gun. And they believe the answer is that schools should be supplied with armed good guys. Do the opponents have a simple strategic answer to that?

[Patrick Keefe]

There are a number of fairly logical, empirical answers to that. The notion that a good guy with a gun stops a bad guy with a gun is actually. I mean, it's generally raised as a counterfactual by the NRA and. And their surrogates. And in many instances, it's not true. I mean, one case that people have been talking about quite a bit is the shooting just a few months ago at the Empire State Building, where you actually had not. Neighborhood watch type, I think they called them, watchdog dads of the sort that lapierre was suggesting. But actually, members of the NYPD who drew their guns and started shooting in a crowded area trying to stop a single shooter. And you had nine bystanders shot, actually, by the NYPD who were trained, one would assume, to use their weapons in these types of situations.

[Jill Lepore]

Another example, of course, is Columbine, where there were two armed guards.

[Patrick Keefe]

Right. So I think that there are a number of kind of logical arguments you can make. I think it will come down to two issues. I mean, one is organization, and then two is how long this spirit of widely held public outrage can be sustained. The NRA's secret has been organization. I think what we saw today in some ways was organization. They are speaking to their base. They are kind of playing a slightly longer game than the program gun control groups are doing. And the second question really is, you know, in terms of all of these citizens who have responded angrily to this, will they be there a week from now, a month from now, giving money? You know, not just signing petitions, but actually out there advocating? And I think that really remains to be seen.

[Jill Lepore]

What lapierre's speech did today was take the outrage felt by NRA members. It's, of course, no less great than the outrage felt by everybody else. And give it a rationale, give it a place to go with this, you know, impassioned embrace of the need for us to protect our children as well as we protect the money in a bank or the First Family is protected by security guards. So that outrage on the part of NRA members, which I think could go another way, has, I think, probably been very successfully marshaled.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Patrick, what do you think? Just on a very simple level, what are, what are several measures that could be taken and conceivably could be passed in this Congress?

[Patrick Keefe]

Well, I mean, it's actually a fairly short menu of things that you would do. How they would look in implementation is where you get the real range. But one issue is a ban on assault weapons. And personally, I think that's going to be a really steep climb in terms of finding enough support in the House to actually ever make that a reality. And I wonder what it'll look like if they can get it through. So say you do pass a ban tomorrow on assault weapons, probably that'll be a prospective ban. So it won't happen. Actually deal with the weapons that are out there. Maybe you could come up with some kind of gun buyback program. But the trouble is that whenever you actually start suggesting that you might go and take or even buy back weapons that are already in private possession, you again, sort of fuel the NRA and that sense of persecution and a kind of fear that the government is coming to take your guns away. Another measure that is closely associated with that is the ban on high capacity magazines here. I think that you might actually see more progress. I think it might be an easier one around which to build a consensus which would essentially ban any of the types of magazines that we've seen used in many of these different mass shootings. So that would be another plan. Another thing, and this is something that the Bloomberg folks have been pretty active on, is trying to you often hear about closing the gun show loophole, but it's actually a kind of more expansive problem than that, which is essentially that we don't have real federal background checks for about 40% of the gun purchases in this country now, an estimated 40%. So closing that much broader loophole, which would deal with not just gun shows but also Internet sales and a variety of other sales, and that's something where there's actually a great deal of support. Jill wrote about this in her piece, but there's support among gun owners and in fact, even among NRA members for closing that loophole, essentially saying that you want to have a screen of some sort that would prevent a criminal from buying a gun.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Jill, anything to add to that?

[Jill Lepore]

I guess I would just say, frustratingly, we're pretty deep in a ditch in terms of what we've what have been conceded by people who you might otherwise expect to have endorsed gun safety measures, judicially, legislative, politically, culturally. You know, even Obama during the campaign endorsed the NRA's vision of Second Amendment rights. There's a lot of work to be done to change the nature of the political conversation. I think that when you have this massive grassroots political organization that has grown over decades on the back of an argument that is full of flaws that people have simply not stood up to argue against, that's just going to take a lot of effort to argue back against it now.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And you don't think that Obama, if he really, really came out and just hammered on this relentlessly, that that would. And he's pretty good at organizing the grassroots, too.

[Patrick Keefe]

I think it would, but I think it would be, I think only after he had a conversation with his advisors in which they said, okay, forget immigration. I think it would have to be a big lift. It would be like healthcare. I think that if they really organize around it, there's a great deal they could do, but I'm just not sure they're ready to do that.

[Jill Lepore]

He's got to have some really powerful Republican allies to make that work. He's got to have some switchers.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Yeah. And we haven't seen, have we seen any Republicans switch yet?

[Jill Lepore]

We've seen the pro gun Democrats say, oh, maybe I was wrong.

[Patrick Keefe]

Well, and I guess. And the point that I've been trying to make, which I. And I hate to make it, but I mean, if they haven't come out in the last week, they're not going to come out.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Yeah.

[Patrick Keefe]

The urgency for them to do so I think is kind of already gone in a way. If they could survive this, whatever pressure they might have experienced in the last seven days, I don't see that, you know, I don't see Republicans suddenly deciding they're going to switch it come January.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

All right, we're going to have to leave it there. This has been the political scene from the New Yorker. We're off next week, but we'll be back the first week in January. I'm Dorothy Wickenden.

[Wayne Lapierre]

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[David Remnick]

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[Jill Lepore]

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