The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Mueller’s Indictments, Ryan’s Tax Plan and the Future of the Republican Agenda
Date: November 3, 2017
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: John Cassidy (Staff Writer, Political Columnist)

Episode Overview

This episode explores two dominant political developments shaping Washington and the Republican agenda in late 2017:

• The first criminal indictments in Robert Mueller’s investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, including the charges against Paul Manafort and the surprise guilty plea of George Papadopoulos.
• The unveiling of the Republican tax bill by Speaker Paul Ryan and its crucial significance for the GOP legislative agenda.

Dorothy Wickenden and John Cassidy examine the implications of these events for President Trump, the GOP, and the broader American political landscape.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Mueller’s Indictments: Scope and Signals

[01:16 – 07:15]

• First Charges and Their Message

  • Dorothy Wickenden opens by noting the significance and speed of Mueller's investigation:
    “It was expected that Manafort would be indicted, but Papadopoulos was a surprise. ... What message is Mueller sending?” [02:26]
  • John Cassidy responds:
    “He's sending the message that, you know, he's serious. The White House has been ... trying to dismiss this investigation ... Mueller is sending a message both to the White House and more importantly ... to other potential witnesses that they better cooperate with him or else.” [02:46]

• The Manafort and Papadopoulos Revelations

  • Cassidy highlights that while Manafort's indictment was anticipated, the surprise was Papadopoulos’s cooperation and plea agreement, revealing efforts to arrange meetings between the Trump campaign and Russians: “The more surprising one was the Papadopoulos ... he's cooperating with prosecutors ... he was at least trying to arrange meetings with Russian officials, including possibly a meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.” [03:15]
  • The White House’s attempt to portray Papadopoulos as a “minor figure” is contrasted with evidence of his involvement.

• Legal and Political Implications

  • Wickenden asks if there’s anything “legally problematic” about these contacts. Cassidy clarifies: “No, nothing legally problematic, I don't think yet. ... Weller isn't revealing everything he's got. ... This is a serious investigation. There are serious leads to follow up. And if we give you a call, you better cooperate.” [04:17]
  • The pair discuss Jeff Sessions’ possible perjury about knowledge of Russian contacts: “On the face of it, he seems to have told an untruth, a lie, a perjure, whatever you want to call it. He may be called back ... and we'll see what he says.” [05:20]

• Diversions and Counter-narratives

  • Cassidy addresses right-wing media fixating on the Uranium One story involving Hillary Clinton: “This Uranium One story has been around for years … on those two facts, the right wing are creating an enormous claim that this was bribery, conspiracy and corruption. ... if you're the White House, if you're the Republicans, you desperately need some sort of diversion here. So they've leapt upon that and tried to make that the story.” [05:51]

• Donna Brazile’s DNC Claims

  • The discussion turns to tension within the Democratic Party, following Donna Brazile’s claims in her book that the 2016 Democratic primary was “rigged” for Clinton: “Donna Brazil now written a book in which she basically confirms that story, says that basically the DNC was operating as an arm of the Clinton campaign...” [07:29]

2. The Republican Tax Bill: Stakes and Challenges

[09:27 – 13:41]

• Urgency for a Legislative Win

  • Wickenden explains the GOP’s need for legislative success after failing to repeal Obamacare: “Paul Ryan and Congressional Republicans really need to get some major legislation passed. ...They've put all of their remaining hopes into the tax bill.” [09:27]
  • Cassidy:
    “The Republican Party, of course, has had two central policies for years now. Get rid of Obamacare...number two, which has always been tax reform ...They finally rolled it out this week. ...They need some sort of legislative accomplishment to point to the voters next year when the 2018 midterms will take place.” [09:38]

• Key Components and Political Messaging

  • The plan centers on cutting the corporate tax rate from 35% to 20% and reducing business taxes, with the claim that the middle class will benefit.
  • Cassidy argues:
    “This isn’t really a tax cut at all. It’s just a giveaway to the corporations and to big businesses. ...It will end up benefiting people like Donald Trump a lot more than it ends up benefiting anybody in the middle class.” [10:23]

• Deficit Concerns and Political Irony

  • Wickenden raises the issue of deficit hawks.
  • Cassidy comments:
    “They basically only exist when the Democrats are in power. Once the Republicans are in power, they go on vacation for a few years.” [11:16]
  • Cassidy continues:
    “Republicans are basically saying that [the deficit] doesn’t matter. It’s much more important to get growth, jobs, et cetera, actually making the same arguments that Democrats make when they’re in opposition.” [11:24]

• Historical Parallels: Voodoo Economics

  • Wickenden references George H.W. Bush’s critique of supply-side economics.
  • Cassidy notes:
    “Well, it does borrow [from supply-side theory] to some extent in that we’re talking about a big cut in the corporate tax rate ... Reagan also slashed personal taxes by a lot more than Trump is doing here. In fact, he slashed them by so much that he had to come back ... and agree to a tax increase because the deficit was just exploding.” [12:15]

• Prospects for Passage

  • Cassidy observes considerable resistance, especially from Republicans in high tax states whose constituents might be harmed by limits on property tax and mortgage deductions. “As the bill stands, it’s going to hurt a lot of middle class, particularly upper middle class people in these blue states ... Democratic activists ... think they only have to flip another 10 or 15 more and they can defeat this.” [12:49]

3. The Future of the Russia Investigation and GOP Strategy

[13:41 – 16:34]

• Ongoing Shadows and Political Calculations

  • Cassidy forecasts that the Mueller investigation will continue to cloud the Trump presidency for the foreseeable future: “I think what we learned this week is basically that the Mueller investigation is going to hang over the Trump administration for a long time, at least until the middle of next year. I would say ... most special counsel inquiries last at least a year.” [13:51]
  • He interprets the quick prosecutions as a move to “put pressure on people to cooperate, to flip,” with prosecutors “building up from the outside and moving towards the center. And of course, Trump is at the center.” [14:34]

• Potential White House Responses

  • Wickenden asks about possible strategies, including firing Mueller.
  • Cassidy warns: “Problem with firing Mueller is I think there'd be such a big outcry that Congress, even the Republicans, would probably react by appointing another special prosecutor... Before they go to that stage, they'll try and stymie Mueller by various ways…appointing a special prosecutor on the Uranium One story and claiming that because Mueller was the FBI director when that FBI investigation ... was going on, he's part of that investigation. ... So it seems to be an idea that White House is at least considering quite seriously.” [15:30]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Mueller’s approach:
  “Mueller is sending a message both to the White House and more importantly ... to other potential witnesses that they better cooperate with him or else.”
  — John Cassidy [02:46]

• On Jeff Sessions and perjury:
  “On the face of it, he seems to have told an untruth, a lie, a perjure, whatever you want to call it.”
  — John Cassidy [05:20]

• On Republican deficit hawks:
  “They basically only exist when the Democrats are in power. Once the Republicans are in power, they go on vacation for a few years.”
  — John Cassidy [11:16]

• On the tax bill’s effect:
  “It will end up benefiting people like Donald Trump a lot more than it ends up benefiting anybody in the middle class.”
  — John Cassidy [10:23]

• On the investigation’s impact:
  “Mueller investigation is going to hang over the Trump administration for a long time, at least until the middle of next year. ... This is an attempt to put pressure on people to cooperate, to flip.”
  — John Cassidy [13:51, 14:34]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 01:16–05:10: The Mueller indictments and implications
• 05:10–07:15: Right-wing Uranium One narrative and Donna Brazile’s DNC allegations
• 09:27–13:41: Republican tax reform: content, politics, and obstacles
• 13:41–16:34: The ongoing Mueller probe and likely scenarios for the administration’s response

Tone & Style

The conversation is incisive yet conversational, with Cassidy offering clear-eyed analysis mixed with dry wit and historical context. The hosts maintain a focus on facts, skepticism toward political spin, and a willingness to call out hypocrisy from both parties.

This summary captures the main arguments, key details, and memorable exchanges from the episode, providing a comprehensive understanding for listeners and readers alike.