The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Picking Up the Pieces
Date: October 14, 2016
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: Adam Davidson, Evan Osnos

Overview

In this episode of "The Political Scene," executive editor Dorothy Wickenden is joined by contributing writer Adam Davidson and staff writer Evan Osnos to unpack the state of the Republican Party and American democracy in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. The discussion explores the party's institutional collapse, the future of key Republican leaders, the impact of demographic changes highlighted through Virginia's political transformation, and the potential long-term consequences of Trump’s rise for both parties and the nation.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Republican Party's Institutional Breakdown

[02:20–04:27]

• Collapse of Party Institutions:
  • Osnos details how the traditional organizing institutions of the GOP failed to block Trump, despite the party’s attempts to support more established candidates.
  • Quote—Evan Osnos [02:44]:

    "This was the utter collapse of the institutions of politics that used to organize the way that this very strange process worked … every turn in the road, the voters themselves managed to thwart the will of the party."

• "The Party Decides" Thesis in Shambles:
  • The prevailing political science notion that party elites can essentially “decide” the nominee no longer holds.
  • Quote—Evan Osnos [03:26]:

    "That idea, it’s sort of been left in shards on the floor and Donald Trump is standing over it sort of gleefully."

2. Implications for Republican Leadership

[04:27–09:48]

• Deflections & Rationalizations:
  • Davidson predicts that, even after a likely Trump loss, party leaders will construct narratives to avoid reckoning with the root causes of their defeat.
  • Quote—Adam Davidson [04:27]:

    "The institution of the Republican Party … will construct a narrative. Mike Pence and Reince Priebus, and certainly Paul Ryan's already halfway there to dismiss this … figure of Donald Trump."

• Party Resilience & Short-Term Recovery:
  • Davidson claims parties are robust and will weather the Trump storm without fundamental reform, foreseeing a strong Republican position in future elections.
• RNC Leadership Dynamics:
  • Osnos points to the party’s internal process for choosing leadership, suggesting that even those blamed for disaster may stay in power due to party structures.
  • Quote—Evan Osnos [06:47]:

    "The choice of the next chairman of the party will not be made by a president ... If not, it's made by the members of the committee. And the committee itself … are the absolute die hards."

• The Paul Ryan Paradox:
  • Discussion on whether Ryan will suffer for his perceived cynicism or escape scrutiny much like previous leaders have after political damage.
  • Davidson remarks on Ryan’s potential and ability to recover, despite current criticism.

3. The Dynamics of Congressional Power and Clinton’s Potential Presidency

[09:01–09:48]

• Paul Ryan’s Predicament:
  • Ryan may have a personal inclination toward bipartisan compromise, but party dynamics incentivize obstruction against Clinton.
  • Davidson warns that the more House Republicans block Clinton, the better they fare politically, even if no progress is made.
  • Quote—Adam Davidson [09:11]:

    "He would love to work with Hillary Clinton. They're not that far apart on corporate tax, on immigration reform. The more antagonistic the Republicans are, the better it is for them."

4. Demographic Transformation & the Virginia Example

[10:36–12:52]

• Political Shifts in Virginia:
  • Osnos recounts how demographic change remade Virginia’s politics, reflecting broader national trends.
  • Quote—Evan Osnos [10:52]:

    "Historically, Virginia was as red as can be … And then something profound changed … By 2008, the population of the state had grown and many of the new arrivals—Asians, Latinos, people from northern states—managed to transform the political complexion."

• Resentment and Identity:
  • The Democratic celebration of “Old Virginie is dead” signaled progress for some but alienation and insult for others, a precursor to today’s division.

5. The Danger of Trump’s Future Influence

[12:52–16:37]

• Potential as a Spoiler:
  • Davidson paints scenarios in which Trump could either formalize a new “America First” party or destabilize GOP governance as an outside influencer, notably via social media.
  • Quote—Adam Davidson [13:30]:

    "All eyes need to shift to what does Trump become in America after this election? … He could become the voice and even create an organization around that resentment and have it be either a formal new party…"

  • Risks to governance: Trump’s influence could undermine necessary bipartisan action in crises (e.g., government shutdowns, debt ceiling fights).
• Long-Term Party Split?
  • Osnos references GOP strategist Steve Schmidt’s prediction that the party may split into an alt-right faction and a center-right conservative core.
  • Quote—Evan Osnos [14:27]:

    "You'll end up with something like an alt right party, you know, a white nationalist party, whether it's led by Trump or by Steve Bannon or whoever. And then you'll have the room for some kind of center right conservative party."

• Glimmers of Optimism:
  • Potential for bipartisan cooperation if moderates prevail; practical obstacles for Trump and Bannon in creating lasting organization.
  • Davidson and Osnos both note Trump’s and Bannon's lack of organizational discipline and the possibility of scandal reducing their future impact.

6. The Question of Trump’s Longevity in Politics

[18:20–19:37]

• Comparisons with Sarah Palin:
  • Osnos likens Trump’s possible post-election trajectory to that of Sarah Palin—initially potent, but ultimately self-destructive.
  • Quote—Evan Osnos [18:20]:

    “…Sarah Palin, who was in 2008 an enormous figure … centrifugal force of her own craziness ... eventually consumed her, and so she's now irrelevant.”

  • He suggests that the larger concern is Trump’s potential heirs—more disciplined populists who could solidify a lasting movement.

Notable Quotes

• Adam Davidson [03:59]:

  "I worry ... about what happens in January. I feel now comfortable saying when Hillary Clinton is inaugurated ... I think there's a lot of narratives that the Republican Party can tell themselves that will allow them to learn no deep lessons about this election."

• Evan Osnos [12:24]:

  “For part of the Republican electorate in Virginia, that statement [‘Old Virginie is dead’] was an insult. I think that was a precursor to the sensibility that we're now confronting ...”

• Adam Davidson [16:37]:

  "This is the sloppiest organization ... you just imagine there's a lot more there. So it's very easy to imagine a scenario in which Trump is not this potent force we're afraid of…"

• Evan Osnos [19:20]:

  "The real question ... is not what Trump does, but what Trump's heirs and successors do, because there will be more disciplined, smarter figures who try to pick up some of Trump's message and stitch it together into a more durable frame."

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:16] — Episode introduction; framing Trump’s “Final Meltdown.”
• [02:44] — Osnos on institutional collapse of GOP
• [06:13] — Osnos explains how RNC leadership might remain intact despite disaster
• [08:03] — Davidson on Paul Ryan’s perceived cynicism and likely political survival
• [10:52] — Osnos details Virginia’s demographic transformation
• [12:52] — Davidson hypothesizes Trump’s potential future as a spoiler
• [14:27] — Osnos outlines Steve Schmidt’s GOP split scenario
• [18:20] — Osnos compares Trump’s future to Sarah Palin
• [19:37] — Episode wrap-up and guest credentials

Memorable Moments

• The episode’s mix of historical perspective and real-time uncertainty added urgency and gravity.
• The Virginia story (Osnos) served as a microcosm of shifts taking place nationwide, tying demographic change to cultural and electoral backlash.
• Cautionary optimism surfaced: While Trump’s organizational failures and legal jeopardy could diminish his power, the threat may shift to future, more savvy political heirs.
• Davidson and Osnos’s frank, occasionally wry tone provided both depth and accessibility, making complex political mechanics meaningful for longtime observers and newcomers alike.

This summary captures the episode’s core arguments, standout quotes, and key structural moments, providing a comprehensive overview for those looking to understand the 2016 Republican meltdown and its reverberations in American politics.