The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode Title: Ready or Not
Date: July 23, 2015
Host: Dorothy Wickenden (Executive Editor, The New Yorker)
Guests: Kathryn Schulz (Staff Writer), John Seabrook (Staff Writer)

Episode Overview

This episode explores America's readiness—or lack thereof—for natural disasters, with a particular focus on the looming threat posed by the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. Returning to lessons from Hurricane Sandy on the East Coast, the panel discusses the intersection of disaster preparedness, societal denial, climate change, and infrastructure policy. Kathryn Schulz discusses her alarming feature on the Cascadia fault, and John Seabrook provides insight into coastal infrastructure and adaptation, particularly in the aftermath of Sandy. Together, they examine what it will take to overcome societal inertia and truly prepare for inevitable catastrophes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Cascadia Subduction Zone: A Hidden Catastrophe

• Awareness Gap
  • Inside the Pacific Northwest, there's relatively high awareness but limited action regarding the risk of a massive earthquake and tsunami. Nationally, the threat remains "a sleeper crisis."
  • Kathryn Schulz (02:24):
    “Within the region in the Pacific Northwest, there really is quite a lot of awareness of this issue. Outside of the region...it’s kind of a sleeper crisis.”
• Late Discovery
  • The Cascadia Subduction Zone's potential for devastation was not widely recognized until the mid-1990s, much later than the San Andreas Fault. Plate tectonics as a field is young; the quietness of Cascadia delayed detection.
  • Kathryn Schulz (03:06):
    “Plate tectonics...is a very young field...A curious thing about the subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest is that it is kind of eerily silenced. And so no one really looked into it until very late in the game.”
• Potential Impact
  • Two main earthquake scenarios:
    • The “small” (yet magnitude 8+), more common type
    • The “big one”—a full rupture causing a magnitude 9, affecting nearly everyone west of the Cascades and triggering a highly destructive tsunami for the coastal zone.
  • Kathryn Schulz (03:52):
    “In that case we’re looking at at least a magnitude 9 earthquake. That’s big and it’s bad...within that region, that long 700 mile strip of the Northwest coast, the devastation will be essentially complete.”

2. Post-Sandy Mindset Shift & Infrastructure Response

• Moving from Armoring to Living with Water
  • Sandy catalyzed a philosophical shift in flood defense: moving away from “hard structures” (seawalls, jetties) to “soft structures” (dunes, berms, green roofs) that absorb or redirect water.
  • John Seabrook (05:20):
    “The big thing in terms of mindset change that Sandy caused was...it really was the final nail in the coffin of this old notion that we can armor the coastline...The new philosophy is the water is going to come in and the best thing we can do is manage that.”
• Cost & Politics of Dunes & Coastal Defense
  • Dunes provide significant but temporary relief; rebuilding them is costly and increasingly controversial, as inland taxpayers foot the bill for affluent coastal communities.
  • John Seabrook (06:40):
    “Communities in the east coast benefit from these dunes, but the whole country pays for them. And so politically, that could become an increasing problem as they get more and more expensive.”

3. Climate Change, Policy, and Political Will

• Political Reluctance to Address Climate Change
  • Amid Sandy’s devastation, Republican leaders, including Chris Christie, avoided linking the storm’s severity to global warming—a trend seen nationwide.
  • John Seabrook (07:45):
    “He [Christie] was asked about climate change and he just wouldn’t answer the question...a lot of Republican governors...have similar feelings about climate change.”
• Policy Shifts within FEMA
  • FEMA has begun integrating climate change into disaster preparedness planning. As of 2015, states must plan for climate impacts or risk losing federal funding for disaster preparation.
  • Dorothy Wickenden (08:20):
    “This past March...FEMA required states plan for the effects of climate change or their share of annual funding for disaster preparedness programs will be cut.”
• Operational Improvements Post-Katrina
  • FEMA improved response systems after Katrina, empowering them to act before receiving a state invitation and streamlining aid distribution.
  • John Seabrook (08:32):
    “FEMA is now authorized in advance of a hurricane to go in and start doing what they do...the way the money gets from the federal government to the affected homeowners has really been streamlined.”

4. Human Psychology: Temporal Parochialism & Denial

• Difficulty Grasping Slow or Rare Risks
  • Earthquakes, unlike hurricanes, are nearly impossible to predict, making proactive measures less likely because of what Schulz calls "temporal parochialism."
  • Kathryn Schulz (10:51):
    “They are really the only absolutely unpredictable natural disaster of that scale...it’s very, very hard to figure out how to confront and proactively address a problem that we have really no lived experience of...”
• Denial and Fatalism
  • Even after disasters, denial persists. Seabrook shares how buyers didn’t inquire about his flood-damaged apartment, indicating collective denial. Schulz notes fatalism as a response in the Northwest.
  • John Seabrook (11:58):
    “No one asked. So I think...we’re still very much in a state of denial about what actually can happen when a natural disaster hits...Sandy was a wake up call, but maybe it’s going to take one more before people finally say, okay, I don’t want to live on the beach.”
  • Kathryn Schulz (13:01):
    “There’s also kind of the flip side of denial, which is fatalism. People do know it’s going to happen...They just...feel like it’s so huge and overwhelming that there’s nothing to be done about it.”

5. Unprepared Infrastructure & Moral Dilemmas

• Schools, Hospitals, and Vulnerable Populations
  • Thousands of schools and vital facilities in the Pacific Northwest are not seismically sound; retrofitting and large-scale preparedness lag alarmingly behind.
  • Kathryn Schulz (13:01):
    “About 5,000 schools in the Pacific Northwest...are effectively going to collapse...and the real question is...why isn’t anything happening?”
  • The cost to seismically retrofit schools is comparatively small versus rebuilding beaches:
    Kathryn Schulz (13:59):
    “You could seismically retrofit a whole lot of elementary schools for that amount of money, and we aren’t doing it...”
• Wealth & Inequality in Preparedness
  • Wealthier communities (e.g., New Jersey shore) can defend themselves, but poorer, vulnerable regions (such as much of Louisiana) lack resources and political clout for adaptation.
  • John Seabrook (16:47):
    “At least in New Jersey shore, the community is relatively wealthy...But when you’re talking about the poor communities, how much will, how much political will, how much economic capital can you raise?”

6. A Parable for Climate Change

• Both guests see parallels between our failures in seismic and climate risk preparedness: prosperity built on fragile ground, denial, and daunting reconstruction; Schulz calls her Cascadia piece "a parable about climate change."
  • Kathryn Schulz (17:12):
    “This story about the Cascadia Subduction zone was effectively a parable about climate change...We’re talking about what do you do when you’ve built up an entire infrastructure and society in a way that leaves you profoundly vulnerable to natural disasters.”

Notable Quotes

• “To my mind, in a way, these are all the same story.”
  — Kathryn Schulz (17:29)

• “Maybe it’s going to take one more [disaster] before people finally say, okay, I don’t want to live on the beach.”
  — John Seabrook (12:27)

• “You could seismically retrofit a whole lot of elementary schools for [the $3.7 billion we’ve spent on beaches], and we aren’t doing it.”
  — Kathryn Schulz (14:03)

• “Armoring the coastline...the new philosophy is the water is going to come in and the best thing we can do is manage that.”
  — John Seabrook (05:22)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Introduction & Obama Quote on Preparedness: 01:26
• Cascadia Subduction Zone Discovery & Risk: 02:24–04:52
• Post-Sandy Coastal Adaptation and Infrastructure: 04:52–07:19
• Climate Change, FEMA, and Political Will: 07:19–09:24
• Human Psychology & Risk Denial: 10:35–12:44
• Schools, Infrastructure, and Unaddressed Risk: 12:44–14:43
• Sea Level Rise, Coastal Development, and Inequality: 14:43–17:12
• Final Reflections on Vulnerability & Parables for Climate Change: 17:12–17:35

Memorable Moment

• Unsettling Parallels:
  Schulz and Seabrook converge on the idea that America’s struggles to prepare for earthquakes and hurricanes are both “parables” for our collective vulnerability to climate change, rooted in denial, inertia, and misplaced priorities.
  • Kathryn Schulz (17:12):
    “We’re talking about what do you do when you’ve built up an entire infrastructure and society in a way that leaves you profoundly vulnerable to natural disasters. So to my mind, in a way, these are all the same story.”

Episode Takeaways

• America’s coastal and seismic catastrophe risks remain far more severe than most realize—especially in the Pacific Northwest.
• Human psychology, political reluctance, and economic inequality consistently hinder attempts at meaningful preparedness.
• A major adjustment in thinking (and spending priorities) is overdue if society is to adapt wisely to both acute threats and the inexorable challenges posed by climate change and natural disasters.