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Episode: Robert Gallucci Talks to David Remnick About Negotiating with North Korea

Date: June 12, 2017
Host: David Remnick
Guest: Robert Gallucci (Former U.S. chief negotiator for North Korea, 1994 Agreed Framework)

Episode Overview

This episode features David Remnick in conversation with Robert Gallucci, a leading expert on North Korea and the chief U.S. negotiator during the 1994 nuclear crisis. Their wide-ranging discussion explores the current state of the North Korean situation under Kim Jong Un, the Trump administration’s policy responses, the role of China, and the broader questions of nuclear deterrence, negotiation, and regime survival. Gallucci provides historical context, firsthand insight into diplomatic dynamics, and sober analysis of potential policy paths forward.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What North Korea Wants (02:46)

• Regime Survival & Grand Strategy:
  • North Korea’s primary objective is regime survival, motivated by fears of U.S.-led regime change, informed by recent examples like Iraq and Libya.
  • While unification of the Korean peninsula under their rule is a stated long-term goal, it is not considered a near-term realistic objective.
• Quote:
  • “What North Koreans have told me flat out on more than one occasion, what they worry about most is an American attempt to change their regime.” — Robert Gallucci [02:59]

2. U.S. Rhetoric & Policy: Comparisons and Concerns (03:37)

• Historical Parallels with Iraq:

  • Remnants of the preemptive “mushroom cloud” rhetoric from 2003 are influencing present-day conversations.
  • Discussion of Secretary Mattis's statements about North Korea’s capabilities possibly justifying preemptive military action.

• Trump Administration’s Approach:

  • The administration’s policy, Gallucci argues, is unclear and inconsistent, oscillating between openness to negotiation and aggressive posturing.
  • Quote:
    • “I have tried very hard to figure out what it is the leadership in this administration thinks about the plausibility of negotiations… and I can’t tell.” — Robert Gallucci [05:38]
    • “It’s not yet coherent.” — Robert Gallucci [06:24]

3. Deterrence, Sanctions, and China’s Role (06:34)

• Sanctions:

  • Sanctions’ effectiveness hinges on China’s willingness to exert real pressure, something Gallucci says Beijing is unwilling to escalate beyond a certain threshold.

• China’s Calculus:

  • China desires North Korea’s regime stability and limited provocations, favoring negotiations but reluctant to risk regime collapse.
  • Quote:
    • “They’d like it to be less provocative… willing to let some pressure be applied… but not enough that the leadership feels real pain.” — Robert Gallucci [07:19]

4. Understanding North Korea Today (07:59)

• Pyongyang’s Transformation:

  • While Gallucci has not visited North Korea, he relays recent reports of construction, increased cars, and restaurants in Pyongyang.
  • The elites are largely insulated from sanctions’ effects, underlining the regime’s focus on self-preservation.

• Totalitarian Structure:

  • The nation operates as a totalitarian system, with a predominant cult of leadership and little tolerance for dissent, complicating negotiation prospects.

5. Nuclear Weapons as Deterrence: Lessons from Libya and Iraq (09:50)

• Misconceptions About Disarmament:
  • Remnick probes whether U.S. interventions in Iraq and Libya have taught other states (like North Korea) that nuclear weapons are worth pursuing.
  • Gallucci clarifies Libya never had nuclear weapons, only a nascent program.
  • Quote:
    • “The description is rough, crude and wrong… Libya never had nuclear weapons.” — Robert Gallucci [10:14]
  • Underlying Point:
    • U.S.-led regime changes have made adversaries value nuclear deterrents for survival.

6. Cautioning Against Use of Force (11:16)

• Advice for Current Leaders:

  • Gallucci cautions against military enthusiasm, citing deterrence’s success with far larger nuclear threats from the Soviet Union.
  • Quote:
    • “Be cautious about your enthusiasm for the use of force to deal with the threat from ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons.” — Robert Gallucci [11:16]

• Rationality of North Korean Leadership:

  • Asserts that North Korea is not undeterrable or irrational; assuming suicidal intent is not justified by evidence.
  • Quote:
    • “Unless your proposition is that they are insane or suicidal… deterrence should work.” — Robert Gallucci [12:14]

7. Engagement vs. Containment—The Path Forward (13:04)

• Necessity of Direct Engagement:
  • Gallucci believes face-to-face negotiations are essential and criticizes the Obama administration’s “strategic patience” as inadequate.
  • Quote:
    • “A policy of engagement where we, in fact, don’t have preconditions… I don’t think that’s the way to go.” — Robert Gallucci [13:04]
• Rejecting Preconditioned Talks:
  • Talks should not be treated as rewards, and unnecessary preconditions only enable North Korea’s nuclear advancements.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Regime Survival (Robert Gallucci) [02:46]:
  • “What they worry about most is an American attempt to change their regime… they point to Iraq and to Libya as recent cases.”
• On the Dangers of Escalation (Robert Gallucci) [05:38]:
  • “I have tried very hard to figure out what it is the leadership in this administration thinks… and I can’t tell.”
• On the Logic of Deterrence (Robert Gallucci) [12:14]:
  • “Unless that’s your proposition — that [the North Koreans] are insane or suicidal — deterrence should work.”
• On Past Policy Failures (Robert Gallucci) [13:04]:
  • “I was something of a critic of President Obama's North Korea policy. I thought the phrase strategic patience was an enormous mistake…”

Timestamps for Important Segments

• North Korea’s Motives and Fears: [02:46]
• Historical Iraq Comparisons & U.S. Rhetoric: [03:37–05:20]
• Trump Administration’s North Korea Policy: [05:20–06:34]
• Effectiveness of Sanctions & China’s Role: [06:34–07:59]
• Inside North Korean Society & Elite Resilience: [07:59–09:50]
• Lessons from Libya & Nuclear Deterrence: [09:50–11:16]
• Deterrence vs. Use of Force: [11:16–12:58]
• Need for Direct Talks and Policy Recommendations: [12:58–14:04]

Summary

This episode offers essential context on North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and long-standing motivations, rooted in regime survival and lessons from recent history. Gallucci warns against militaristic escalation, emphasizing the continued viability of deterrence, and calls for direct, unconditional engagement as the only hope for resolving current tensions. His historical perspective, diplomatic candor, and willingness to critique past and present U.S. policy make this a crucial listen for anyone seeking to understand the ongoing conundrum on the Korean peninsula.