← The Political Scene | The New Yorker
The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Ryan Crocker and John McLaughlin Talk to Robin Wright About Diplomacy in the Trump Era
00:19:00
Ryan Crocker and John McLaughlin Talk to Robin Wright About Diplomacy in the Trump Era
Loading summary
Transcript46 lines
- [00:00]
Mint Mobile Advertiser
As summer draws to a close and the kids go back to school, I know I'm going to want to keep in touch with my kids at a price I can afford. Back to school Shopping can be a hassle, but your phone plan shouldn't be. That's why I made the switch to Mint Mobile. For a limited time, Mint mobile is offering three months of unlimited premium wireless service for 15 bucks a month. So while other parents are sweating overage charges, I have a little bit more room in my budget for cool back to school threads. Say bye bye to your overpriced wireless plan's jaw dropping monthly bills and unexpected overages, Mint Mobile is here to rescue you. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. Use your own phone with any Mint Mobile plan and bring your phone number along with all your existing contacts. Dish overpriced wireless and get three months of premium wireless service from Mint Mobile for 15 bucks a month. This year, skip breaking a sweat and breaking the bank. Get this new customer offer and your three month unlimited wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month at mintmobile.com newyorker that's that's mintmobile.com New Yorker upfront payment of $45 required, equivalent to $15 a month limited time new customer offer for first three months only. Speeds may slow above 35 gigabytes on unlimited plan. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details.
- [01:17]
Lauren Good
I'm Dorothy Wickenden. On today's Politics and More podcast, New Yorker contributor Robin Wright talks to former Ambassador Ryan Crocker and former Deputy CIA Director John McLaughlin. Crocker and McLaughlin will talk about the challenges facing diplomats working under President Trump.
- [01:38]
Narrator/Host Introduction
Now the real life Trump presidency is all of three weeks old, and US Foreign policy seems to shift on an almost hourly basis from tweet to tweet, from eruption to eruption. One day the President is having tough conversations with longtime allies like Australia, and the next day he's backtracking on his own blustering rewrite of our official position on Israel and the settlements. Robin Wright has reported on foreign affairs for decades for the New Yorker and many other publications. She recently sat down with Ryan Crocker, a longtime diplomat who served in some very troubled and unstable countries, and with John McLaughlin, the deputy director of the CIA under two presidents.
- [02:20]
Lauren Good
Welcome to the show. I'm so delighted to talk to two men whose lives have intersected with mine now.
- [02:25]
Michael Colory
Thank you.
- [02:25]
Lauren Good
Since at least the 1970s, both of you have served eight presidents, one as one of America's finest diplomats and the other as one of the highest ranking intelligence officers. President Trump's doctrine appears to be based on America first. In the 21st century, in an era of globalization, is it possible to actually craft a foreign policy that is America first to the exclusion of others? What are the consequences of an America first foreign policy?
- [03:00]
Michael Colory
Well, America first interpreted literally just won't work. America first, if you mean think about what our interests are and advance them, sure. But America first interpreted literally won't work because every problem we have is one that crosses national boundaries. Problems, whether it's terrorism, proliferation of weapons, concerns about cyber, everything, everything is a problem for many nations. And they have to pull together policies that help everyone. So the whole idea of America first cuts against all of the trends that we are now seeing evident in the world.
- [03:43]
Lauren Good
Ryan, do you, when you look at the Trump administration's foreign policy and what's transpired so far, do you have a sense that the chaos that comes across is intentional? Is this lack of experience?
- [03:58]
Ryan Crocker
Well, I don't think anyone could deliberately produce chaos on this scale as a matter of policy. So I do think it reflects experience inexperience. I also think that it reflects the President's views that he needs to fulfill the promises he made in the campaign. That as you look at these various steps, I would hope as the extraordinary weight of that office settles in on him, he will take a broader view of those in government careers who are there to help him. Look, the President really needs the Foreign Service. We're a pretty small organization, but we're everywhere in the world. And, you know, an ounce of diplomacy up front may save an administration from having to deploy a 100,000 ton aircraft carrier for military solutions when diplomatic ones were possible. So I think they need to take a deep breath over there, sit under a tree for a while, contemplate the verities and consider how they actually run a government, because they're not running a government right now.
- [05:22]
Lauren Good
John, President Trump appears to have picked his first foreign policy fight with Iran. The National Security Adviser came out rather dramatically at a press briefing and said the Trump administration was putting Iran on notice. And the Treasury Department has slapped new sanctions on Iran for its ballistic missile test. And I'm interested in your reflections on how dangerous this is. President Trump tweeted, iran is playing with fire. They don't appreciate how kind President Obama was to them, not me. And so what do you think the intentions are? What's your sense of how policy might change? How confrontational is this administration getting with the Islamic Republic?
- [06:15]
Michael Colory
Well, you know, we can all have complaints about Iran on various levels, so let's not pretend that they're doing everything we like. But here's the point. The administration has to be careful here for a number of reasons. First, having drawn this line of sorts, let's call it that if you're put on notice, you are drawing a line of sorts. I would bet anything that Iran will now launch other missiles. That's what they will do. It's virtually certain they will do it again. So does the administration know what they will do then? And if they're intending, and if they don't, then they've just drawn a line that will ultimately come to haunt them. And if they do wish to get into a fight with Iran. One thing I've learned in my government career is when you inflict violence, you don't know where it's going. Even if it's justified, you don't know where it's going. So you have to be prepared for that. You have to be prepared for retaliation, because Iran, if it's in a fight, is not going to sit there. It's going to do something, either through proxies or directly, and their proxy Hezbollah is quite capable. And the final thing is, some weeks ago, I wrote an article said, can we handle the truth about isis? And one of the truths I put on the table awkwardly is that one of the few other countries fighting ISIS is Iran. So it's a complicated world. It does not yield well to tweets, and I think they need to be a little careful and just think it through. It's not to say that Iran is our pal, but think it through before we get in a fight.
- [08:00]
Lauren Good
Ryan, your very first posting was in Iran in the 1970s, and you were the one who actually started the first dialogue with Iran when you were ambassador in Baghdad. This was a tentative dialogue that ultimately led to sporadically, erratically, a kind of discussion and two years of torturous diplomacy that produced the nuclear deal. What is the danger that the process that you helped launch begins to unravel?
- [08:30]
Ryan Crocker
Well, that follows right on to what John said. The world is a very complicated, messy place, and no part of it is more complicated than Iran. So. And there is no country in the Middle east we know less about than Iran, because we haven't been on the ground there since 1979. I started the conversation with the Iranians right after 911 in Geneva.
- [09:01]
Lauren Good
Over Afghanistan.
- [09:02]
Ryan Crocker
Over Afghanistan. And we were getting some stuff done, including a turnover of some Al Qaeda operatives, and then we had State of the Union 2002, Axis of Evil. That pretty well finished the dialogue.
- [09:22]
Lauren Good
The President has openly advocated for taking Iraq's oil. He said that at the CIA. He's said that torture works. He's advocated what some people think are war crimes. How alarmed are you by this rhetoric, John?
- [09:42]
Michael Colory
I think he's not aware of what he's saying yet. I think this is just stuff that's popping out because he speaks extemporaneously and he's still caught to some degree in campaign mode. So I'm not particularly alarmed. When I think about a statement like let's take Iraq's oil, I have always thought that that is beyond stupid. In other words, I don't even know what it means. Try and operationalize that. Does that mean sending troops to surround oil wells while you pump it out and then transport it out of the country, or does it mean something else? I have no idea what he's talking about, so I assume it won't happen, so I'm not worried about it.
- [10:29]
Lauren Good
Ryan, there was a dissent communication by something over 1,000 diplomats. Put this in context. Was this a big deal? Was this unusual? And what impact do you think it might have?
- [10:42]
Ryan Crocker
Well, Robin, it's a huge deal. And normally the way it works is you file your dissent, it is completely ignored, and then six months later, you will be given an award for dissent. So it's an institution. It's part of the fabric of the Foreign Service and the State Department. But never have we seen anything on this scale. I guess the highest we may have gone on signatures before maybe 50, 60. This is over 1,000.
- [11:13]
Lauren Good
And what does that reflect about sentiment in the State Department right now about the Trump administration?
- [11:19]
Ryan Crocker
Well, clearly a lot of angst there. Secretary Tillerson will. Will need to grapple with that. I frankly think he was a good choice. There were a few good choices for that Cabinet. I'm delighted that Jim Mattis is our Secretary of Defense, and John Kelly for Homeland Security.
- [11:45]
Michael Colory
These are all good people.
- [11:46]
Ryan Crocker
They are great people. I know them all.
- [11:49]
Lauren Good
What would you say to young foreign or old foreign policy officers when they have to make this decision? They dissent from policy. Should they quit or should they continue to serve, hoping that they can help craft policy in a different direction?
- [12:04]
Ryan Crocker
There is always the option to resign on a matter of principle. It is very seldom done in any of the services. Not in the Foreign Service, not in our military, not in the CIA. So my advice would be, look, this may be the time your country needs you the most to provide your analysis. Your recommendations, steps forward based on your experience and judgment in the Foreign Service, the government spends a lot of money to give you the language skills and all of the other training that you need to be a professional diplomat. So the bar would have to be pretty darn high, I think, before I would support anyone taking the step of resignation.
- [13:00]
Lauren Good
Prediction is the low form of journalism. But every president eventually confronts a foreign policy crisis. Where and when do you see that first crisis happening?
- [13:13]
Michael Colory
There's so much to watch. I think if you were trying to think of the things that will come and hit the administration in the face early, it's a long list and probably something that I won't think of is on it. Typically, at the beginning of an administration, the thing that surprises you and shocks you and creates the first crisis is something you haven't thought of. For example, in the bush administration, in 2001, when a hotshot Chinese pilot nipped one of our planes in the Pacific and sent it down on Hainan island, we had about a month of crisis with China over what happens to that plane. No one anticipated that. A fruit seller ignites himself in Tunisia and you have the Arab Spring. People knew there were pressures building in the Middle east, but no one anticipated that that would be the spark. So right now I'd say watch North Korea. I've been watching North Korea's missile program since the mid-90s. I am pretty confident that within the term of this president, North Korea will acquire the ability to send an ICBM across the Pacific to us with a nuclear weapon on it. And we will probably detect that development in advance. And the question will arise, what are you going to do about that.
- [14:32]
Lauren Good
Ryan? What are you watching most closely now?
- [14:36]
Ryan Crocker
Well, again, my entire experience has been in the Middle east. So I am sure my favorite region in the world will distinguish itself by once again producing a White House level crisis. You know, whether it will be with Iran, whether it'll be in Syria, whether it will be someplace none of us have thought of yet. We are looking at a critical moment in world history. The international order established after World War II persisted for 60 odd years. That order was designed and led by the U.S. i think we're at a moment now when the U.S. isn't really sure it wants to lead anymore. And frankly, that didn't start with Trump. That started with President Obama when he referred to our NATO allies as free riders. That's a term that President Trump would be very comfortable with. I would simply caution with a world order now over seven decades that has prevented a major war in Europe before you throw it over to the side, you better have a plan for the coming order. Or if we think the chaos in the White House has been significant, we'll see it on a global scale if we and our allies do not work together either to endorse an order that has stood as well or to fashion a new one before we walk away from it.
- [16:12]
Michael Colory
You know, we talk about global order. It's not an abstract concept. Global order is very concrete. It consists of allies we've made, alliances we've made, coalitions we've built. It consists of rules that we all follow. One of the rules is that borders are inviolable, and yet Putin has broken at least three different treaties invading Ukraine. Are we going to accept that? We could, but if we did, it would have consequences for global order. You would have thrown away that rule. So here's the problem. No one else aspires to lead the world, really. They aspire to follow their own interests and secure them. And even though US Leadership is often criticized, it's hard for me to imagine a better circumstance, because the United States, for all of its flaws and all of its mistakes, still leads with the interests of others in mind, as well as its own interests, and leads in a way that advances values, not just narrow interests. And I think that would be a terrible thing to lose, and the world would. That's the story of the 20th century. That is the story of the 20th century. That's why the 20th century was the low point in human violence and Second World War, the largest single event in human history.
- [17:45]
Ryan Crocker
So.
- [17:47]
Michael Colory
That'S what global order loss looks like.
- [17:52]
Lauren Good
Ryan, if you had one piece of advice to give the Trump administration, what would it be?
- [17:57]
Ryan Crocker
Engage. With whom I, for some years, have been the dean of the Bush School of government and public service at Texas A&M. That is Bush 41. Take a page from President Bush's notebook. Start to build relations. As soon as he got to the Oval Office, he was making calls, not because there was a crisis to solve, but just to build relationships. That paid off for us in the first Gulf War, where Syria and Egypt each sent a division to be part of the action there. This only happens if you've got a president who is engaged. Sadly, President Obama, who's a remarkably a remarkable individual at every level, wasn't very good at engagement or wasn't very interested. So I hope President Trump and Secretary Tillerson in particular, Secretary Mattis is already out doing diplomacy and with our East Asian allies, that they understand that to make America work, you got to make the world work. And that doesn't come from just tweeting at the world. You've got to build relations. And I hope very much the president and his key aides take that step.
- [19:24]
Lauren Good
John.
- [19:26]
Michael Colory
I would say think about the difference between tough and tough minded. You know, everyone in Washington likes to beat their chest and show how tough they are. Tough minded is harder. Tough minded is hard government. Tough minded means put your heads together, think hard about the secondary and tertiary consequences of what you're thinking about doing. That's a lot harder than acting tough.
- [20:06]
Lauren Good
That was Ryan Crocker and John McLaughlin talking to Robin Wright.
- [20:16]
Katie Drummond
I'm Katie Drummond. I'm Wired's global editorial director.
- [20:19]
Michael Colory
I'm Michael Colory, Wired's director of consumer Tech and Culture.
- [20:22]
Lauren Good
And I'm Lauren Good. I'm a senior correspondent at Wired. Our show, Uncanny Valley, is all about the people, power and influence of Silicon Valley.
- [20:31]
Katie Drummond
At Wired, we're constantly reporting on how technology is changing every aspect of our lives. So each week on the show, we get together to talk about one of the biggest stories in tech.
- [20:41]
Michael Colory
Right?
- [20:41]
Katie Drummond
So whether we're talking about privacy, AI, social media, or a major tech figure.
- [20:47]
Michael Colory
We will always explain the Silicon Valley forces behind these stories and how they affect you.
- [20:52]
Katie Drummond
Make sure you're following Uncanny Valley in your podcast app of choice so you don't miss an episode.
- [21:02]
Ryan Crocker
From prx.