The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: "Ryan Crocker and John McLaughlin Talk to Robin Wright About Diplomacy in the Trump Era"
Date: February 13, 2017
Host/Moderator: Robin Wright

Episode Overview

This episode features a deep discussion about the state and challenges of U.S. diplomacy in the early Trump administration. Veteran diplomat Ryan Crocker and former CIA Deputy Director John McLaughlin join New Yorker contributor Robin Wright to analyze the administration’s approach to foreign policy, the implications of “America First,” concerns over rhetoric and decision-making, and the critical importance of alliances and global order.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Viability and Consequences of "America First" (02:25–03:43)

• John McLaughlin: Asserts that a literal "America First" foreign policy is unworkable in the 21st-century context, given global interconnectedness.
  • Quote (03:02):
    “America first interpreted literally just won't work...every problem we have is one that crosses national boundaries. Problems, whether it's terrorism, proliferation of weapons, concerns about cyber, everything, everything is a problem for many nations. And they have to pull together policies that help everyone.”
• Consensus: Genuine progress requires cooperation, not isolationism.

2. Perceptions of Chaos in the Trump Administration (03:43–05:22)

• Ryan Crocker: Attributes perceived chaos to inexperience, not intentional policy.
  • Quote (04:00):
    “I don't think anyone could deliberately produce chaos on this scale as a matter of policy. So I do think it reflects inexperience...”
• Emphasizes need for Trump to utilize experienced Foreign Service professionals, stating diplomacy is a cheaper, more effective first resort compared to military action.
  • Quote (04:32):
    “An ounce of diplomacy up front may save an administration from having to deploy a 100,000 ton aircraft carrier for military solutions when diplomatic ones were possible.”

3. Confrontation with Iran and Hasty Moves on Foreign Policy (05:22–07:59)

• John McLaughlin: Warns that rhetoric like "putting Iran on notice" could escalate unpredictably, urging caution and strategic thinking.
  • Quote (06:36):
    “One thing I've learned in my government career is when you inflict violence, you don't know where it's going. Even if it's justified, you don't know where it's going. So you have to be prepared for that.”
  • Emphasizes complexity: Iran, despite being adversarial, also opposes groups like ISIS.

4. Historical Perspective on Diplomacy with Iran (07:59–09:21)

• Ryan Crocker: Shares first-hand experience starting tentative dialogues post-9/11 and frustration at lost opportunities.
  • Quote (08:47):
    “There is no country in the Middle East we know less about than Iran, because we haven't been on the ground there since 1979.”

5. Alarm over the President's Rhetoric (09:21–10:28)

• John McLaughlin: Downplays literal concerns over statements like ‘taking Iraq’s oil’ but criticizes their recklessness.
  • Quote (09:48):
    “When I think about a statement like let's take Iraq's oil, I have always thought that that is beyond stupid. In other words, I don't even know what it means.”

6. Unprecedented Dissent Among Diplomats (10:28–11:49)

• Ryan Crocker: Notes the significant scale and symbolism of over 1,000 diplomats’ formal dissent.
  • Quote (10:41):
    “It's a huge deal...never have we seen anything on this scale.”
• Expresses some confidence in appointees like Tillerson, Mattis, and Kelly.

7. On Serving vs. Quitting in the Face of Policy Dissonance (11:49–12:59)

• Ryan Crocker: Advises officials to stay and engage rather than resign, arguing professional perspectives are most needed now.
  • Quote (12:20):
    “This may be the time your country needs you the most to provide your analysis...The bar would have to be pretty darn high, I think, before I would support anyone taking the step of resignation.”

8. Anticipating the Next Foreign Policy Crisis (12:59–14:36)

• John McLaughlin: Cites unpredictable nature of early-administration crises, flags North Korea as a major concern.
  • Quote (13:42):
    “Watch North Korea...within the term of this president, North Korea will acquire the ability to send an ICBM across the Pacific to us with a nuclear weapon on it...”
• Ryan Crocker: Expects a crisis in the Middle East; warns about the U.S. potentially relinquishing its global leadership role.

9. Reflection on U.S. Leadership and Global Order (14:36–17:51)

• John McLaughlin: Details the concrete nature of international order and dire consequences if the U.S. retreats from global leadership.
  • Quote (16:12):
    "Global order is very concrete. It consists of allies we've made, alliances we've made, coalitions we've built. It consists of rules that we all follow..."
  • Challenges of countries like Russia breaking rules (Ukraine invasion) and implications for world stability.
  • Quote (16:55):
    “For all of its flaws and all of its mistakes, [the U.S.] still leads with the interests of others in mind, as well as its own interests... And I think that would be a terrible thing to lose, and the world would.”

10. Advice to the Trump Administration (17:51–19:23)

• Ryan Crocker: Urges Trump to 'engage' and build relationships, noting diplomacy’s past successes.
  • Quote (17:56):
    “Engage. Take a page from President Bush's notebook. Start to build relations. As soon as he got to the Oval Office, he was making calls, not because there was a crisis to solve, but just to build relationships.”
• John McLaughlin: Encourages the administration to be “tough-minded, not just tough.”
  • Quote (19:26):
    “Everyone in Washington likes to beat their chest and show how tough they are. Tough-minded is harder. Tough-minded means put your heads together, think hard about the secondary and tertiary consequences…”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the impossibility of "America First" isolationism:
  “America first interpreted literally just won't work... every problem we have is one that crosses national boundaries.” - John McLaughlin (03:02)
• On chaos in the administration:
  “I don't think anyone could deliberately produce chaos on this scale as a matter of policy.” - Ryan Crocker (04:00)
• On hastiness and unintended consequences:
  “One thing I've learned in my government career is when you inflict violence, you don't know where it's going.” - John McLaughlin (06:36)
• On serving in challenging times:
  “This may be the time your country needs you the most to provide your analysis...The bar would have to be pretty darn high...before I would support anyone taking the step of resignation.” - Ryan Crocker (12:20)
• On the importance of alliances and order:
  “Global order is very concrete. It consists of allies we've made, alliances we've made, coalitions we've built.” - John McLaughlin (16:12)
• Advice to Trump:
  “Engage. Take a page from President Bush's notebook. Start to build relations.” - Ryan Crocker (17:56)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• America First doctrine questioned: 02:25–03:43
• Internal chaos and need for experienced diplomacy: 03:43–05:22
• Administration's approach to Iran: 05:22–07:59
• Roots and fragility of U.S.–Iran dialogue: 07:59–09:21
• Presidential rhetoric on war crimes & Iraq’s oil: 09:21–10:28
• Scale and meaning of diplomatic dissent: 10:28–11:49
• To quit or to stay in government service: 11:49–12:59
• Predicting global crises & hotspots: 12:59–14:36
• On global order and U.S. leadership: 14:36–17:51
• Advice for the administration: 17:51–19:23

This episode provides urgent, historically aware analysis of the state of American diplomacy at a pivotal moment. Crocker and McLaughlin’s warnings and experiences offer a roadmap for principled engagement and a caution against impulsive or isolationist policy, urging the Trump administration to recognize the complexity of U.S. interests and responsibilities abroad.