Ryan Lizza and Jeffery Toobin on the North Carolina primary.

Summary

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The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Ryan Lizza and Jeffrey Toobin on the North Carolina Primary
Host: Dorothy Wickenden, Executive Editor
Guests: Ryan Lizza & Jeffrey Toobin, Staff Writers
Date: May 9, 2014

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Episode Overview

In this episode, Dorothy Wickenden convenes staff writers Ryan Lizza and Jeffrey Toobin to analyze the North Carolina Republican Senate primary results and their implications for the national political landscape. The discussion covers the increasingly blurred line between establishment Republicans and the Tea Party, the positioning of candidates like Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan, and the strategic challenges both parties face leading into the 2014 midterm elections.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Thom Tillis’s Primary Victory and the GOP's Strategic Calculus

[02:14 – 03:43]

• Tillis’s Win: North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis won the Republican primary, avoiding a runoff by securing over 40% of the vote, making him the GOP nominee to face incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan.
• Establishment Support:
  • Tillis was heavily backed by national GOP groups, including Karl Rove’s super PAC and the Chamber of Commerce, with the intent to avoid primary winners who could stumble in the general election, a mistake seen in 2010 and 2012.
  • Ryan Lizza: “What they want to do is avoid nominating candidates who will say something stupid in the general election, which is why they don’t control the Senate…” [03:17]
• Tea Party vs. Establishment – Overhyped Split:
  • Despite media framing, the practical policy differences between establishment and Tea Party candidates in North Carolina were minimal.
  • Ryan Lizza: “Usually what we’re talking about here is not so much who is further to the right, because…everyone’s pretty far to the right.” [02:44]

2. The “Divide and Conquer” Video and General Election Risks

[03:43 – 04:34]

• Tillis’s Controversial Remark:
  • A video surfaced of Tillis stating the need to “divide and conquer” those on public assistance, compared to Mitt Romney’s infamous “47%” comment.
  • Democrats seized on this quickly, but the hosts note it's less damaging than similar statements made by Tillis’s libertarian rival, Greg Brannon.
  • Ryan Lizza: “I don’t know if that video has quite the same impact as the 47%.” [04:30]

3. North Carolina’s Political Transformation

[04:34 – 05:28]

• Shift to the Right:
  • Under Tillis’s speakership, North Carolina transformed from a progressive to a strongly conservative, “Mississippi-style” state, cutting taxes, restricting abortion, reducing education funding, and limiting voting rights.
  • Jeffrey Toobin: “They have really cut funding for education, which had kind of been the crown jewel of North Carolina politics…this will be a real test of…Republican rule.” [05:08]

4. Tea Party Triumph or Assimilation?

[05:28 – 07:08]

• Tea Party Wins by Shifting the Party:
  • The real dynamic is not that Tea Party candidates are being suppressed, but that their values have become mainstream within the GOP.
  • Jeffrey Toobin: “If you look at Tea Party priorities, they are now Republican Party priorities.” [06:00]
• Small Differences, Not Big Chasms:
  • Ryan Lizza: “We’re now in the…narcissism of small differences. These are not chasms of policy differences…” [06:25]
  • Even figures like Pat Robertson comment on how "radicals" have overtaken the GOP establishment.

5. Karl Rove, the Chamber, and Party Power Brokers

[07:08 – 08:09]

• Super PAC Influence:
  • Karl Rove’s American Crossroads is a major force in GOP primaries, motivated by previous general election losses due to unelectable nominees.
  • The divide between pro-business, establishment candidates and libertarian-leaning, anti-corporate Tea Party challengers remains at the margins.

6. National Implications and Presidential Politics

[08:09 – 08:49]

• Foreign Policy Cleavage:
  • Only in presidential politics does a real policy split emerge, with Rand Paul’s isolationism setting him apart from other GOP contenders.
  • Jeffrey Toobin: “Rand Paul does seem genuinely committed to a more isolationist, less interventionist approach…That has not really shown up in these Senate races.” [08:17]

7. Kay Hagan’s Campaign and the Obamacare Strategy

[08:49 – 10:52]

• Vulnerability and Calculated Embrace of Obamacare:
  • Hagan, a centrist Democrat, fully embraced Obamacare for the first time, particularly criticizing North Carolina’s Medicaid decision.
  • Jeffrey Toobin: “She is a very cautious, centrist Democrat…concentrated mostly on Veterans affairs constituent services, taken no particularly controversial stands…” [09:10]
• Base Mobilization vs. Swing Voters:
  • Hagan’s strategy may focus more on energizing Democratic base (especially African Americans), less on persuading swing voters.
  • Toobin: “Elections are not necessarily about capturing the swing voters. They are about motivating your base…” [10:20]
  • Lizza: “These elections are much more racially polarized and…base elections than they used to be…Obama’s coalition…is about minorities, women, retirees…tech savvy folks…” [10:52]

8. The Senate Landscape and 2014 Stakes

[11:41 – 12:10]

• Senate Control in Play:
  • The GOP needs a net gain of six seats for a majority and has multiple targets, with Hagan as one of the most vulnerable Democrats.

9. Policy Focus: Minimum Wage and Economic Issues

[12:43 – 13:42]

• Democrats & Minimum Wage:
  • Raising the minimum wage is popular in polls (~70% support) but uncertain as a motivator for voters in November.
  • Toobin: “It appears that minimum wage is a good issue for Democrats, but I just don’t know if it has staying power.” [13:39]

10. The Obama Factor and Voter Turnout

[13:42 – 14:33]

• Exciting the Base vs. 2010 Liability:
  • Democrats must weigh whether linking to Obama will energize the electorate that turned out in 2008, noting Hagan’s own margin tied to Obama-driven turnout.
  • Lizza: “There are base voters that only voted because Obama was on the ballot. And presumably you’d want him to excite those voters.” [14:23]

11. Previewing Other Key Primaries

[14:33 – 16:04]

• Upcoming Battles:
  • The “Tea Party vs. Establishment” narrative is likely to play out in primaries across other states weekly through June.
  • Mississippi stands out as a real potential for a Tea Party upset of an incumbent (Thad Cochran vs. McDaniel).
  • Toobin: “Almost no big states are in play…all these other states capturing the national attention…better be prepared for nothing but political ads for the entire fall.” [15:33]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “What they want to do is avoid nominating candidates who will say something stupid in the general election, which is why they don’t control the Senate, because they nominated some bad candidates in 2010 and 2012…”
  — Ryan Lizza [03:17]

• “If you look at Tea Party priorities, they are now Republican Party priorities…It really is not meaningful anymore to talk about the base of the Republican Party because the base is the party.”
  — Jeffrey Toobin [06:00]

• “If Pat Robertson’s talking about radicals taking over, you know, things have changed.”
  — Ryan Lizza [07:06]

• “She’s a very cautious, centrist Democrat…She ran ahead of Obama in 2008 in North Carolina by a fairly substantial margin…But of course, this is a midterm election with a smaller electorate likely to turn out.”
  — Jeffrey Toobin [09:10]

• “Elections are not necessarily about capturing the swing voters. They are about motivating your base. And in North Carolina, that means in significant part African Americans who tend to support Obamacare more than any other group.”
  — Jeffrey Toobin [10:20]

• “These elections are much more racially polarized and they’re much more base elections than they used to be.”
  — Ryan Lizza [10:55]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Primary Preview & Tillis’s Victory: [02:14 – 03:43]
• Tillis’s Controversial “Divide and Conquer” Video: [03:43 – 04:34]
• North Carolina’s Political Shift: [04:34 – 05:28]
• Tea Party’s Influence in the GOP: [05:28 – 07:08]
• Karl Rove & National Establishment: [07:08 – 08:09]
• Presidential Race Policy Differences: [08:09 – 08:49]
• Kay Hagan’s Vulnerability & Strategy: [08:49 – 10:52]
• Senate Map and Stakes: [11:41 – 12:10]
• Minimum Wage as Campaign Issue: [12:43 – 13:42]
• Obama’s Role & Base Turnout: [13:42 – 14:33]
• Upcoming Key Primaries: [14:33 – 16:04]

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Tone & Style

The conversation is analytical yet conversational, mixing deep policy knowledge with light banter and wry observations about the reality of partisan politics and campaign dynamics. The speakers maintain a focus on political strategy, polling, and the underlying trends shaping both parties as they head into a pivotal midterm election cycle.

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Ideal for listeners who want a sharp, staff-writer analysis of the complexities, personalities, and strategies driving one of the most consequential Senate races of 2014 — and what it reflects about American politics more broadly.

Transcript

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

The Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about politics. It's Thursday, May 8th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. The midterm election season has begun and it's looking more likely that Republicans will win a majority in the Senate On Tuesday. North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis won the Republican primary for Senate this fall. He'll face Democratic Senator Kay Hagan.

[Ryan Lizza]

For the last four years, I've been.

[Jeffrey Toobin]

In Raleigh cleaning up Kay Hagan's mess.

[Ryan Lizza]

And now I want to go to Washington and clean up Kay Hagan's mess.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

That was Tillis at his election party on Tuesday night. Brian Lissa and Jeffrey Toobin are here to talk about North Carolina and about what to expect in color in the strategic maneuvering by Republicans and Democrats, both locally and nationally. Ryan Taylor was supported by the national Republican establishment, and he won over 40% of the vote, thus avoiding a runoff against one of his more conservative rivals. But he calls himself a conservative revolutionary. What's up with that?

[Ryan Lizza]

Yeah, that's why some of these splits aren't as much as meets the eye. I mean, usually what we're talking about here is not so much who is further to the right, because in a state like North Carolina, line, in a Republican primary, everyone's pretty far to the right. And you couldn't come up with a whole lot of differences policy wise between Tillis and his closest rival, which is Brannon. But, you know, Tillis is the House speaker and most Republicans thought would be a much better candidate against Kay Hagan in the fall. And that's why the big money groups like Karl Rove's group and the Chamber of Commerce, what they want to do is avoid nominating candidates who will say something stupid in the general election, which is why they don't control the Senate, because they nominated some bad candidates in 2010 and 2012 and lost some races that they could have won.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Yeah, we'll get to that.

[Ryan Lizza]

So, you know, so this whole establishment versus Tea Party thing, it's true only to a certain extent. What really they're looking for is the smoothest candidate in the fall.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Speaking of which, a video has been circulating of Tillis saying that we have to divide and conquer people who are on assistance. And inevitably, it's being compared to Mitt Romney's 47% video. Is Hagen going to be able to effectively exploit that?

[Ryan Lizza]

Yeah, actually, they put that out the first. You know, I think within hours of Tillis winning. They put that out and it got a lot of attention. Now, that's nothing compared to some of the things that Brandon said. Brandon was the libertarian. He's a physician. And he had some really wild statements that got a lot of Republicans scared about him winning the nomination. And he was, interestingly, he was backed by Rand Paul, whereas Tillis was backed by both Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush. So it was a bit of a proxy battle between the potential 2006 candidates, Jeb Bush and Rand Paul. But I don't think. Jeff, tell me you've looked at this race carefully. I know, but I don't know if that video has quite the same impact as the 47%.

[Jeffrey Toobin]

It's hard to tell at this point. It just came out. But what's especially interesting about Tillis of candidacy is that he is the embodiment of the new order. In North Carolina, he has been the speaker as the Republicans took over all of state government and really transformed the most progressive southern state into the political equivalent of Mississippi. They have cut taxes, they have limited abortion rights, they have cut back on voting rights, and perhaps most importantly, they have really cut funding for education, which had kind of been the crown jewel of North Carolina politics or North Carolina government. And this will be a real test of, I think, the popularity of Republican rule, which came in with a fury two years ago.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And what do you make, Jeff, of the Tea Party versus establishment divide? As Ryan was saying, that's how everybody's been discussing the race.

[Jeffrey Toobin]

Right. And I think it is legitimate that that is how the race was perceived in North Carolina. As Ryan said, the issue differences between the two candidates were modest to non existent, which I think really illustrates how the Tea Party has taken over the Republican Party. Yes, some of the Tea Party candidates have lost, but if you look at Tea Party priorities, they are now Republican Party priorities. And it really is not meaningful anymore to talk about the base of the Republican Party because the base is the party.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Yet there are these tensions that keep coming out. So I just noticed actually that Sarah Palin is deeply annoyed about the establishment gloating about how they got their candidates candidate nominated.

[Ryan Lizza]

But we're now in the, in the. What do they say, you know, the narcissism of small differences. Right. We're now in that realm where, you know, these are not chasms of policy differences between these folks. I mean, I was struck to Jeff's point about how the Tea Party has sort of won because they've, they've brought all the establishment guys so far to the right. Pat Robertson the other day, remember Pat Robertson, you know, who used to be described as a member of the new right and really sort of helped create the Christian right in the 70s and 80s. He, the other day was on his show talking about how the radicals have taken over the party and that they had to start electing more or nominating more electable candidates. So if Pat Robertson's talking about radicals taking over, you know, things have changed.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Well, and Ryan, what about Karl Rove's group, American Crossroads? Is Rove now kind of back as a major arbiter of the party?

[Ryan Lizza]

Oh, no doubt, because that's one of the biggest super PACs out there. They threw a lot of money into that race and they started organizing really, really early cycle because of the beating they took both in 2010 and 2012, where a lot of Republicans think if they'd organized and been a little smarter. In a half, you know, maybe half a dozen Senate races in 2010 and 2012, the Republicans would have controlled the Senate. So no doubt this is a pretty big victory for him. The one difference, I will say the financial interests of the Republican Party take their cues from the sort of operatives like Rove. And I think that may be a difference between some of the more pure libertarian candidates and the folks that are backed by the Chamber of Commerce and Karl Rove's group. I think there is some more anti corporate sentiment among some of the candidates like Greg Brannan and some of the real grassroots Tea Party folks.

[Jeffrey Toobin]

I also think that at the presidential level, there is a bona fide difference in policy when you talk about foreign affairs between Rand Paul and basically the rest of the party. And Rand Paul does seem genuinely committed to a more isolationist, less interventionist approach to foreign policy than say, Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio. That has not really shown up in these Senate races. They just tend not to discuss those sorts of things. Yeah.

[Ryan Lizza]

In a Southern state and a Republican primary, the differences are basically nothing.

[Jeffrey Toobin]

Right.

[Ryan Lizza]

But at a national level, I think you're exactly right. The difference between Jeb Bush and Rand Paul is real.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And Jeff, before we get off the subject, tell us about Kay Hagan, who is thought to be vulnerable, especially on Obamacare.

[Jeffrey Toobin]

Well, you know, very interesting. Just today, just this morning, there was a hearing where Kay Hagan for really the first time embraced Obamacare fully and said it's an outrage that North Carolina has not accepted Medicaid expansion. She is a very cautious, centrist Democrat. She has done absolutely everything to try to get reelected in a swing state. She's concentrated mostly on Veterans affairs constituent services, taken no particularly controversial stands other than just voting with Democrats most of the time. She ran ahead of Obama in 2008 in North Carolina by a fairly substantial margin when she beat Elizabeth Dole, an incumbent, not a simple political task. But of course, this is a midterm election with a smaller electorate likely to turn out. And the polls have been consistent, you know, one point either way. And I anticipate that that's how it's going to continue for quite some time.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

But that's really interesting that she's come out for Obamacare. Does that indicate that there is now a turn that we're beginning to see that it's not such a toxic issue for the Democrats?

[Jeffrey Toobin]

Well, I mean, certainly the good news on Obamacare in terms of number of enrolle has sapped some of the toxicity. I also Think that. And this is, you know, also from talking to people in her campaign. Elections are not necessarily about capturing the swing voters. They are about motivating your base. And in North Carolina, that means in significant part African Americans who tend to support Obamacare more than any other group. So it may be that she's making the political calculation that the people who don't like Obamacare are not going to vote for me anyway, so I might as well double down and get my vote motivated to go to the polls. I mean, I am not, I am putting those thoughts in her head. I don't, I didn't report that out, but that certainly looks like what she's doing.

[Ryan Lizza]

No, I think that that's 100% right. 2014, sort of a tipping point for a Democrat running in North Carolina. You have to figure out, is it the new Democratic coalition that Obama cobbled together that you're going to try and turn out in a, when Obama's not on the ballot or you're going to run the race the way Democrats used to in that state and try and bring some sort of white, you know, a lot more white moderates over to your side? You know, maybe it's not either or for her, maybe she'll do it to a mix of both, but it's, these elections are much more racially polarized and they're much more base elections than they used to be. I mean, Obama's coalition in states like North Carolina, that overall trended Democrat is about minorities, women, retirees that came from the north and now live in North Carolina and some of the younger tech savvy folks in the research triangle who are, who are socially liberal.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Ryan, does Hagan need to win if the Democrats are going to maintain control of the Senate?

[Ryan Lizza]

The Republicans have to net six seats and they now have six available to them. Actually, they have more than six available to them. So they can theoretically lose this race and find the six elsewhere. But this is, you know, this is one of their top targets. And Hagan is, you know, there hasn't been a tremendous amount of polling in North Carolina, but she's, she's definitely one of the most vulnerable Democrats nationally.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Okay, let's take a break for our sponsor. We will be right back.

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

Jeff, Democrats are focusing more and more on increasing the minimum wage. How do you think that issue is likely to play out in the midterms coming up?

[Jeffrey Toobin]

Well, certainly that's a very poll tested issue. Something almost approaching 70% of the people support raising the minimum wage. The question is how much is it a voting issue? How much will people say that candidate's for the minimum wage thus I'm going to vote for them? I don't know. I think the issue environment is very fluid. The economy had been bad for a long time. If the last month's job increases continue, the economy could be good. If the news on Obamacare continues to be good, that could change. But, but I don't think we know in early May what the voting issues are going to be in October and November. Yes, it appears that minimum wage is a good issue for Democrats, but I just don't know if it has staying power.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

And Ryan, do we know how likely it is that Obama will be as big a liability as he was in 2010?

[Ryan Lizza]

This gets back to what we were talking about before. In these various Senate campaigns, the Democrats have to make a strategic choice about what is the electorate that they think they can get to show up on election day. And if you're hagin in North Carolina, you want that electorate that showed up to put Obama in the White House six years ago and she, you know, she only won because Obama was on the. Well, I shouldn't say she only won because Obama was on the ballot. But Obama excited a lot of voters that came out to vote because he was on the ballot. And that's the sort of strategic calculus that they have to make. As Jeff pointed out, it is a base election. There are base voters that only voted because Obama was on the ballot. And presumably you'd want him to excite those voters.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

What other key primaries are coming up?

[Ryan Lizza]

Well, there's going to be about one every week for the next couple of months. And most of these other races have a similar dynamic. And even if they don't have a similar dynamic, the press will ensure that they have a similar dynamic. You know, it's Tea Party versus the establishment. So this is sort of the spring primary season and you know, by the end of June we'll sort of have all the nominees for the two parties and the Tea Party and the establishment will be able to see, you know, who won the primary wars.

[Jeffrey Toobin]

The one I'm most interested in is Mississippi because the incumbent there is a senator named Thad Cochran. He's been in office for many, many years. Although he's deeply obscure, he is being challenged by a Tea party type named McDaniel. And that's the one state where it does seem possible that a Tea Party insurgent could take out an incumbent. It seemed that John Cornyn in Texas or Lindsey Graham in South Carolina might be in trouble. They have not been. But Mississippi is the one where the outsider does have a chance. One of the odd things about this Senate season is that almost no big states are in play. No race in California, no race in New York, no race to speak of in Illinois. Texas is not competitive. So you have all these other states capturing the national attention and all this money. So the people there better be prepared for nothing but political ads for the entire fall.

[Dorothy Wickenden]

Okay, thank you. Both Ryan Lizza and Jeffrey Toobin are staff writers. This has been the political scene from the New Yorker. I'm Dorothy Wickenden.

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[Dorothy Wickenden]

America is changing, and so is the world.

[Ryan Lizza]

But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.

[Asma Khalid]

I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.

[Ryan Lizza]

Tristan Redman in London, and this is the global story.

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Every weekday, we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.

[Ryan Lizza]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.

[Jeffrey Toobin]

From.

[Ryan Lizza]

PRX.