The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Ryan Lizza and Jeffrey Toobin on the North Carolina Primary
Host: Dorothy Wickenden, Executive Editor
Guests: Ryan Lizza & Jeffrey Toobin, Staff Writers
Date: May 9, 2014

Episode Overview

In this episode, Dorothy Wickenden convenes staff writers Ryan Lizza and Jeffrey Toobin to analyze the North Carolina Republican Senate primary results and their implications for the national political landscape. The discussion covers the increasingly blurred line between establishment Republicans and the Tea Party, the positioning of candidates like Thom Tillis and Kay Hagan, and the strategic challenges both parties face leading into the 2014 midterm elections.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Thom Tillis’s Primary Victory and the GOP's Strategic Calculus

[02:14 – 03:43]

• Tillis’s Win: North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis won the Republican primary, avoiding a runoff by securing over 40% of the vote, making him the GOP nominee to face incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan.
• Establishment Support:
  • Tillis was heavily backed by national GOP groups, including Karl Rove’s super PAC and the Chamber of Commerce, with the intent to avoid primary winners who could stumble in the general election, a mistake seen in 2010 and 2012.
  • Ryan Lizza: “What they want to do is avoid nominating candidates who will say something stupid in the general election, which is why they don’t control the Senate…” [03:17]
• Tea Party vs. Establishment – Overhyped Split:
  • Despite media framing, the practical policy differences between establishment and Tea Party candidates in North Carolina were minimal.
  • Ryan Lizza: “Usually what we’re talking about here is not so much who is further to the right, because…everyone’s pretty far to the right.” [02:44]

2. The “Divide and Conquer” Video and General Election Risks

[03:43 – 04:34]

• Tillis’s Controversial Remark:
  • A video surfaced of Tillis stating the need to “divide and conquer” those on public assistance, compared to Mitt Romney’s infamous “47%” comment.
  • Democrats seized on this quickly, but the hosts note it's less damaging than similar statements made by Tillis’s libertarian rival, Greg Brannon.
  • Ryan Lizza: “I don’t know if that video has quite the same impact as the 47%.” [04:30]

3. North Carolina’s Political Transformation

[04:34 – 05:28]

• Shift to the Right:
  • Under Tillis’s speakership, North Carolina transformed from a progressive to a strongly conservative, “Mississippi-style” state, cutting taxes, restricting abortion, reducing education funding, and limiting voting rights.
  • Jeffrey Toobin: “They have really cut funding for education, which had kind of been the crown jewel of North Carolina politics…this will be a real test of…Republican rule.” [05:08]

4. Tea Party Triumph or Assimilation?

[05:28 – 07:08]

• Tea Party Wins by Shifting the Party:
  • The real dynamic is not that Tea Party candidates are being suppressed, but that their values have become mainstream within the GOP.
  • Jeffrey Toobin: “If you look at Tea Party priorities, they are now Republican Party priorities.” [06:00]
• Small Differences, Not Big Chasms:
  • Ryan Lizza: “We’re now in the…narcissism of small differences. These are not chasms of policy differences…” [06:25]
  • Even figures like Pat Robertson comment on how "radicals" have overtaken the GOP establishment.

5. Karl Rove, the Chamber, and Party Power Brokers

[07:08 – 08:09]

• Super PAC Influence:
  • Karl Rove’s American Crossroads is a major force in GOP primaries, motivated by previous general election losses due to unelectable nominees.
  • The divide between pro-business, establishment candidates and libertarian-leaning, anti-corporate Tea Party challengers remains at the margins.

6. National Implications and Presidential Politics

[08:09 – 08:49]

• Foreign Policy Cleavage:
  • Only in presidential politics does a real policy split emerge, with Rand Paul’s isolationism setting him apart from other GOP contenders.
  • Jeffrey Toobin: “Rand Paul does seem genuinely committed to a more isolationist, less interventionist approach…That has not really shown up in these Senate races.” [08:17]

7. Kay Hagan’s Campaign and the Obamacare Strategy

[08:49 – 10:52]

• Vulnerability and Calculated Embrace of Obamacare:
  • Hagan, a centrist Democrat, fully embraced Obamacare for the first time, particularly criticizing North Carolina’s Medicaid decision.
  • Jeffrey Toobin: “She is a very cautious, centrist Democrat…concentrated mostly on Veterans affairs constituent services, taken no particularly controversial stands…” [09:10]
• Base Mobilization vs. Swing Voters:
  • Hagan’s strategy may focus more on energizing Democratic base (especially African Americans), less on persuading swing voters.
  • Toobin: “Elections are not necessarily about capturing the swing voters. They are about motivating your base…” [10:20]
  • Lizza: “These elections are much more racially polarized and…base elections than they used to be…Obama’s coalition…is about minorities, women, retirees…tech savvy folks…” [10:52]

8. The Senate Landscape and 2014 Stakes

[11:41 – 12:10]

• Senate Control in Play:
  • The GOP needs a net gain of six seats for a majority and has multiple targets, with Hagan as one of the most vulnerable Democrats.

9. Policy Focus: Minimum Wage and Economic Issues

[12:43 – 13:42]

• Democrats & Minimum Wage:
  • Raising the minimum wage is popular in polls (~70% support) but uncertain as a motivator for voters in November.
  • Toobin: “It appears that minimum wage is a good issue for Democrats, but I just don’t know if it has staying power.” [13:39]

10. The Obama Factor and Voter Turnout

[13:42 – 14:33]

• Exciting the Base vs. 2010 Liability:
  • Democrats must weigh whether linking to Obama will energize the electorate that turned out in 2008, noting Hagan’s own margin tied to Obama-driven turnout.
  • Lizza: “There are base voters that only voted because Obama was on the ballot. And presumably you’d want him to excite those voters.” [14:23]

11. Previewing Other Key Primaries

[14:33 – 16:04]

• Upcoming Battles:
  • The “Tea Party vs. Establishment” narrative is likely to play out in primaries across other states weekly through June.
  • Mississippi stands out as a real potential for a Tea Party upset of an incumbent (Thad Cochran vs. McDaniel).
  • Toobin: “Almost no big states are in play…all these other states capturing the national attention…better be prepared for nothing but political ads for the entire fall.” [15:33]

Notable Quotes & Moments

• “What they want to do is avoid nominating candidates who will say something stupid in the general election, which is why they don’t control the Senate, because they nominated some bad candidates in 2010 and 2012…”
  — Ryan Lizza [03:17]

• “If you look at Tea Party priorities, they are now Republican Party priorities…It really is not meaningful anymore to talk about the base of the Republican Party because the base is the party.”
  — Jeffrey Toobin [06:00]

• “If Pat Robertson’s talking about radicals taking over, you know, things have changed.”
  — Ryan Lizza [07:06]

• “She’s a very cautious, centrist Democrat…She ran ahead of Obama in 2008 in North Carolina by a fairly substantial margin…But of course, this is a midterm election with a smaller electorate likely to turn out.”
  — Jeffrey Toobin [09:10]

• “Elections are not necessarily about capturing the swing voters. They are about motivating your base. And in North Carolina, that means in significant part African Americans who tend to support Obamacare more than any other group.”
  — Jeffrey Toobin [10:20]

• “These elections are much more racially polarized and they’re much more base elections than they used to be.”
  — Ryan Lizza [10:55]

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Primary Preview & Tillis’s Victory: [02:14 – 03:43]
• Tillis’s Controversial “Divide and Conquer” Video: [03:43 – 04:34]
• North Carolina’s Political Shift: [04:34 – 05:28]
• Tea Party’s Influence in the GOP: [05:28 – 07:08]
• Karl Rove & National Establishment: [07:08 – 08:09]
• Presidential Race Policy Differences: [08:09 – 08:49]
• Kay Hagan’s Vulnerability & Strategy: [08:49 – 10:52]
• Senate Map and Stakes: [11:41 – 12:10]
• Minimum Wage as Campaign Issue: [12:43 – 13:42]
• Obama’s Role & Base Turnout: [13:42 – 14:33]
• Upcoming Key Primaries: [14:33 – 16:04]

Tone & Style

The conversation is analytical yet conversational, mixing deep policy knowledge with light banter and wry observations about the reality of partisan politics and campaign dynamics. The speakers maintain a focus on political strategy, polling, and the underlying trends shaping both parties as they head into a pivotal midterm election cycle.

Ideal for listeners who want a sharp, staff-writer analysis of the complexities, personalities, and strategies driving one of the most consequential Senate races of 2014 — and what it reflects about American politics more broadly.