The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode Overview

Title: Ryan Lizza and John Cassidy on Eric Cantor’s Primary Defeat
Date: June 13, 2014
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: Ryan Lizza, John Cassidy

Theme:
This episode explores the shocking defeat of House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in the Virginia Republican primary by Dave Brat, an obscure economics professor. The conversation centers on how this upset happened, its implications for the GOP establishment, the Tea Party's influence, and what it signals for the Republican Party's future and the broader political landscape leading into the 2014 midterms and 2016 presidential race.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Shock of Cantor’s Defeat

• Wickenden opens: Cantor's loss was a surprise to almost everyone—candidates included—given his powerful position and resources.
• Dave Brat's victory speech focused on:
  • "Returning the country to constitutional principles...to Judeo-Christian principles...and to free market principles where no one is favored." (Dave Brat, 01:36)
• Cantor’s Weakness:
  • Ryan Lizza notes Cantor’s local popularity was actually low, "He wasn't all that popular in his district, which is gerrymandered and overwhelmingly Republican. He hasn't faced a competitive primary in quite a while." (Lizza, 02:26)

2. Role of Conservative Media and Grassroots Activism

• Media Influence:
  • Conservative radio hosts Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin heavily promoted Brat in the campaign's final days, focusing on opposition to immigration reform.
  • Brat only spent ~$200,000, in stark contrast to Cantor’s millions, highlighting the power of grassroots organizing and right-wing media over big money (Cassidy, 03:40).
• Low Turnout Primaries:
  • Only 60,000 out of 750,000 voted, making it prime for an insurgency.
  • "There was a sort of grassroots movement for this guy. Looking back, it is fertile ground because there's always low turnouts in a primary." (Cassidy, 04:08)

3. The Blind Spot in Mainstream Political Coverage

• Echo Chambers:
  • Lizza points out "The problem with monitoring the conservative press for clues about these races is a lot of the times these articles are just boosterism...Nine times out of ten they're doing that when the challenger they're boosting has absolutely no chance and goes down." (Lizza, 05:13)
  • Importance for political reporters to monitor right-wing media: "If you cover politics and you want to cover Republicans, you have to read the right wing press because the conservatives don't trust the mainstream media and they have really developed their own parallel journalistic institutions." (Lizza, 05:46)

4. Cantor's Political Maneuvering Backfired

• Cantor's Shifting Alliances:
  • Lizza describes Cantor as “addicted to political intrigue,” often switching alliances to secure his own influence, riding and then trying to rein in Tea Party momentum (Lizza, 06:51).
  • Attempting to distance himself from the Tea Party and realign with Boehner post-2013 government shutdown contributed to his vulnerability.
• Undermining His Own Campaign:
  • Cassidy: "He was basically unknown until Cantor started attacking him in TV ads. I think if Cantor had completely ignored him, he might have just, you know, never taken off." (Cassidy, 08:26)
  • Cantor’s association with efforts to suppress the Tea Party at elite GOP gatherings also hurt.

5. The “Local Fluke” vs National Trend Debate

• Comparison to Lindsey Graham’s Victory:
  • Graham, a pro-immigration incumbent, survived his primary easily, suggesting Cantor's loss wasn’t solely about policy, but local disconnect and targeted attacks (Cassidy, 09:34).
• GOP Establishment Still Powerful:
  • Despite Cantor’s ouster, Republican establishment figures continue to prevail in most races.

6. Dave Brat's Brand of Conservatism

• More Than Tea Party:
  • Though associated with the Tea Party, Brat positioned himself as a cerebral, free-market conservative, not just anti-establishment ("He's quite a cerebral economist from the right wing, sort of Adam Smith, Ayn Rand view of the world..." - Cassidy, 10:44).
• Populist Rhetoric:
  • Lizza: "He attacked Eric Cantor for being close to Wall street, for being close to the banks. His biggest applause line in the stump speeches I watched was when he railed about the fact that no bankers were arrested after the financial crisis." (Lizza, 11:34)
  • Called Brat the “Elizabeth Warren of the right,” due to his attacks on big business-government alliances.

7. Next Steps for House Republican Leadership

• Immediate Fallout:
  • Cantor endorses Kevin McCarthy as his successor. Boehner now likely to stay as Speaker for stability, but hardline conservatives want more representation in leadership (Lizza, 13:50).
  • Conservative bloc’s frustration: "There's no one from a red state in the leadership." (Lizza, 14:11)

8. Implications for the 2014 Midterms and 2016

• Tea Party Impact:
  • All eyes on the Mississippi Republican Senate runoff—if another insurgent wins, it signals Tea Party resurgence (Cassidy, 14:46).
• Tea Party's Staying Power:
  • Cassidy on insurgency: "The Tea Party clearly hasn't gone away at a local level...there's still this sort of right wing media establishment, their counter establishment, which is always going to support these types of candidates." (Cassidy, 16:37)
  • Tea Party has succeeded in “taking out a big general”—"They took out Eric Cantor, they took out the number two, and that sort of revived the movement in a sense." (Lizza, 17:19)
• Mainstream Press and Democratic Reaction:
  • Democrats may celebrate in the short-term, but a further-right GOP could mean more gridlock: "If you care about stuff getting done in Washington...the fact that the Republican Party's moving further to the right isn't good if you want get legislation passed." (Lizza, 18:02)

9. Broader Political Undercurrents

• Left-Wing Parallels:
  • Lizza compares Brat's anti-big-business rhetoric to Elizabeth Warren and notes progressives are asking: "Why isn't there more of a grassroots phenomenon like that on the left?"
  • Mentions speculation about Bernie Sanders possibly challenging Hillary Clinton from the left (Lizza, 19:04).

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Dave Brat’s victory message:
  "It's not about Dave Brat winning tonight. It's about returning the country to constitutional principles. It's about returning the country to Judeo-Christian principles." (Brat, 01:36)

• On Cantor’s strategy:
  "He sort of addicted to political intrigue...he's sort of the architect of making sure that Obama has no victories and obstructionism in the House… This is a little bit of a cliche, but it's this tiger he tried to ride. And of course now on Tuesday, the tiger swallowed him." (Lizza, 06:51)

• On Brat's populist rhetoric:
  "His biggest applause line in the stump speeches I watched was when he railed about the fact that no bankers were arrested after the financial crisis." (Lizza, 11:34)

• On the Tea Party’s insurgent strategy:
  "If you are a less well funded, on the ground group of insurgents, what you want to do is pick your political battles very carefully...you want to take out a big general on the other side." (Lizza, 17:19)

• On Democratic reactions:
  "I'm a little puzzled by why, if you care about stuff getting done in Washington...the fact that the Republican Party's moving further to the right isn't good." (Lizza, 18:02)

Important Timestamps

• 01:15 – Episode begins, introduction to Cantor’s defeat
• 01:36 – Dave Brat’s victory remarks
• 02:26–04:08 – Analysis of the grassroots insurgency and talk radio influence
• 05:13 – Lizza on the unreliability of conservative media “boosterism”
• 06:51 – Lizza explains Cantor’s political maneuvers and missteps
• 08:26 – Cassidy: Cantor’s attacks empowered Brat
• 10:44 – Brat’s actual ideology and campaign message
• 11:34 – Lizza likens Brat to Elizabeth Warren in right-wing populist terms
• 13:50 – Leadership shakeup in the GOP House
• 14:46 – Implications for upcoming Mississippi Senate race
• 16:37–17:19 – The Tea Party’s continuing strength and strategic victory
• 18:02 – Lizza on the risk of further legislative gridlock
• 19:04 – Left-wing parallels, Sanders and Warren
• 19:32 – Episode recap and closing

Summary Conclusion

The episode delivers a thorough analysis of Eric Cantor's unexpected defeat as a unique convergence of local discontent, grassroots activism, conservative media mobilization, and Cantor’s own political maneuvers. The panel debates whether this marks a Tea Party resurgence or a one-off fluke, while also considering what it means for the broader trajectory of the GOP, the grassroots left, and American political polarization. Key lessons: underestimate ground-level insurgencies (and right-wing media) at your peril, and the struggle between GOP establishment and insurgents is far from over.