← The Political Scene | The New Yorker
The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Ryan Lizza and John Cassidy on Eric Cantor’s primary defeat.
00:18:49
Ryan Lizza and John Cassidy on Eric Cantor's primary defeat.
Loading summary
Transcript52 lines
- [00:00]
A
As summer draws to a close and the kids go back to school, I know I'm going to want to keep in touch with my kids at a price I can afford. Back to school Shopping can be a hassle, but your phone plan shouldn't be. That's why I made the switch to Mint Mobile. For a limited time, Mint mobile is offering three months of unlimited premium wireless service for 15 bucks a month. So while other parents are sweating overage charges, I have a little bit more room in my budget for cool back to school threads. Say bye bye to your overpriced wireless plan's jaw dropping monthly bills and unexpected overages, Mint Mobile is here to rescue you. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. Use your own phone with any Mint Mobile plan and bring your phone number along with all your existing contacts. Dish overpriced wireless and get three months of premium wireless service from Mint Mobile for 15 bucks a month. This year, skip breaking a sweat and breaking the bank. Get this new customer offer and your three month unlimited wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month at mintmobile.com newyorker that's that's mintmobile.com New Yorker upfront payment of $45 required, equivalent to $15 a month limited time new customer offer for first three months only. Speeds may slow above 35 gigabytes on unlimited plan. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details.
- [01:15]
B
This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about politics. It's Thursday, June 12th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. To the surprise of everyone, including the candidates, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was defeated in the Virginia primary by an economics professor, Dave Bratt. Here's Bratt speaking on Tuesday night.
- [01:37]
C
It's not about Dave Brat winning tonight. It's about returning the country to constitutional principles. It's about returning the country to Judeo Christian principles.
- [01:51]
B
And it's about returning this country to free market principles where no one is favored. Ryan Lizza and John Cassidy are here today to talk about Cantor's defeat and what it means for the Republican Party and for elections this fall and in 2016. Ryan, last year you pointed out in a profile for the magazine that at that point Cantor had a favorable rating of only 27% in Virginia, and that he was also widely seen as opportunistically tacking between the two Republican factions in the House. Why was everyone so surprised by his defeat?
- [02:27]
C
Well, I mean, despite that, despite that he's statewide. He wasn't all that popular in his district, which is gerrymandered and overwhelmingly Republican. He hasn't faced a competitive primary in quite a while. You know, I think the big motivating force may have been the talk radio at the end of the campaign. You know, Brat didn't have a super PAC, he only spent $200,000. But he had some very, very important conservative talk radio hosts championing him in the last week.
- [02:56]
B
Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin focusing on the immigration.
- [03:00]
C
Yeah, he really didn't. At the end of the campaign he focused things to amnesty, although that's not how he started out his campaign. And that overall message of his campaign was not just about amnesty and immigration. It was actually much more interesting, much larger message than that. And then I think a lot of Washington observers who frankly are not on the ground in Virginia learned from the Cantri people that his own pollsters believed he was up by 20 points. And so everyone thought, oh well, you know, this isn't an interesting race.
- [03:29]
B
Well also John Brad had so little money compared to Cantor and that came as a surprise too. What do you think about that? Does that tell us anything about big money in politics?
- [03:40]
D
Yeah, I mean that was one of the encouraging things about the race if you, you know, if you're a Democrat. I mean, I think he had $200,000 and Cantor raised millions and he still lost. I mean it is still a bit of a mystery how he managed to win. But when you look back at it, it's not completely surprising. As Ryan said, this was basically a sort of right wing insurgency at the grassroots. And if you were following the right wing media sites like Breitbart.com and Daily Caller and things like that, and listening to Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin in the sort of right wing talk show circuit, there was a sort of grassroots movement for this guy. Looking back, it is sort of fertile ground because there's always low turnouts in a primary. There are only 60,000 people voted in the end in a where there's three quarter of a million people living. So there's always the sort of possibility for this type of sort of insurgency to take root. And it may well have been that the vote swung in the last couple of weeks. The Daily Caller did have a poll a couple of weeks actually taken June 2nd, which isn't that long ago, which had the race at about 10 points difference and closing. Now. A lot of people sort of wrote that off our Daily Caller poll. Perhaps it slanted or whatever, but it Looks like there was a sort of last minute shift to, as Ryan said, he got the endorsement of Ingraham and Levin. There was actually a big rally last weekend at which they spoke and Laura Ingraham said that Kantor should have been shipped off to Pakistan instead of the Taliban leaders. That was the sort of level of attack that was going on down there and it sort of just went under the radar of the mainstream press. But there was a sort of movement on the ground. It didn't come out of nowhere.
- [05:14]
C
The problem with monitoring the conservative press for clues about these races is a lot of the times these articles are just boosterism. You know, for every one time, you know, Breitbart and the Daily Caller and the radio talk show host try and tell everyone about an impending stunning upset, right? Nine times out of ten they're doing that. When the challenger they're boosting has absolutely no chance and goes down.
- [05:37]
B
At the same time, though, Ryan. But don't you think that the mainstream media, they all read each other and the right wing talk show circuit and media, they all talk to each other?
- [05:46]
C
No. If you cover politics and you want to cover Republicans, you have to read the right wing press because the conservatives don't trust the mainstream media and they have really developed their own parallel journalistic institutions. One thing I am always amazed at when I talk to press secretaries for Republican senators, mostly in the context of senators who are thinking about running for President in 2016, they spend an enormous amount of their time reading RedState.com and listening to Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin and Breitbart and Drudge because that's their audience and they're looking for things about their candidates that are sort of flaring up and then eventually jump into the mainstream press. So yeah, a good lesson for Cassie and me and other people who cover politics to make sure you're not ignoring those conservative websites.
- [06:35]
B
Well, and Ryan, help us out because until this week, Cantor was seen as, and presented himself as a leader of the Tea Party faction. He was one of the self proclaimed young guns in Congress. He was seen as a successor to John Boehner as speaker, maybe the first Jewish president. I mean, it's kind of incredible.
- [06:52]
C
Someone that knew Cantor pretty well once told me the thing to know about Eric Cantor is he sort of addicted to political intrigue. You know, he loved the intrigue in the House and plotting to overthrow Boehner and plotting to sort of capture the allegiance of the Tea Party. And so if you watch the moves he made since Obama was elected immediately after Obama's elected. He's on the bandwagon of reform conservatism, I.e. that Barack Obama's victory shows that conservatives need to sort of rethink everything. Of course, that's very short lived. The Tea Party comes roaring into power in 2010, and now Cantor thinks that the way for him to become speaker of the House is to hitch himself to the Tea Party. And he's sort of the architect of making sure that Obama has no victories and obstructionism in the House and making sure that none of the fiscal deals get done. And that's his sort of 2010, 2011. But by the end of 2013, last year, after this series of fiscal crises, Cantor sort of aligns himself back with Boehner, distances himself from the Tea Party, and realizes that it's this sort of monster that could destroy both of them. Right. And that ends with the government shutdown. And remember, in 2013, unlike 11 and 12, Cantor voted with Boehner more often, aligned himself with Boehner more often, aligned himself more with the establishment, trying to tame the Tea Party. Basically. This is a little bit of a cliche, but it's this tiger he tried to ride. And of course now on Tuesday, the tiger swallowed him.
- [08:26]
D
Yeah, I think he made two specific mistakes, Dorothy, looking back, number one, this guy nobody had ever heard of, Brat. And he even said this himself, he said he was basically unknown until Cantor started attacking him in TV ads. And they were attacking him as a liberal to start with in the district. I mean, people started to take a look at this guy mainly because he was the subject of ads. I think if Cantor had completely ignored him, he might have just, you know, never taken off. And the second thing Cantor did, he went to some meeting in Florida earlier this year which the sort of party hierarchy got together and in the telling of the right wing media, anyway, sort of were in cahoots to try and squash down the Tea Party. He was part of this, you know, so it's been presented as a sort of car rove and the big donors and the Washington honchos all get together to squash the Tea Party. This year, he was part of that. Or at least in the right wing telling that seems to have been an issue on the ground as well.
- [09:19]
B
I wanted to ask you about another curious figure here, which is Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, who's played it all a little bit differently. So he supports immigration reform, but he's regularly bashed Obama's foreign policy and he won quite easily. What happened there?
- [09:35]
D
The biggest, the bigger issue here coming out of the election is how much is this just a random local story? Cantor lost touch with his local people. There was a sort of local insurgency fueled by the right wing media. It's a one off story and it doesn't have any really national implications. That's what the Republican establishment are saying and they're pointing that one of the big examples they're using is Lindsey Graham. Look, Lindsey Graham was even more pro immigration than Cantor was and he won. Now that's a statewide race. The power of money is bigger the larger the district. I think that may have had something to do with it, but certainly, you know, this is a big event. Obviously the House majority leader has never been defeated in a primary re nomination. But the story of the Republican establishment reasserting itself and winning most of these races is still there. There's going to be a big showdown in Mississippi, I think it is, in a couple of weeks where another Tea Party candidate looks like he might win. But it's not that everything changed overnight. The big trend this year does still seem to be the Republican Party establishment reasserting itself. At least I think so.
- [10:36]
B
You pointed out, John, that brat didn't actually run as a Tea Party candidate, but as a conservative Republican devoted to free markets.
- [10:44]
D
He's not a sort of pitchfork, you know, let's march on Washington type of guy at all. He's quite a cerebral economist from the right wing, sort of Adam Smith, Ayn Rand view of the world, as Ryan said. That was what if you read his stump speeches, it's mostly that as the campaign went on, he fastened onto the immigration thing because that's what seemed to have, I think most, you know, tack with the voters. But if you look at his positions, and again he said this to Hannity the other night, you know, he said basically, I'm a mainstream Republican. They went down the list. And he basically supports the Republican stance on almost everything apart from immigration. I think to some extent it just shows you how far the sort of mainstream of the Republican Party has moved to the right. This guy doesn't see himself as a sort of outlier. He says, look, I'm just a genuine Republican. The problem is the party's drifted away from what Republicanism is supposed to be about.
- [11:31]
B
Ryan, you called Brad the Elizabeth Warren of the right.
- [11:35]
C
I guess this is maybe where I might disagree with you a little bit, Cassidy, in terms of the populism in this message, which does remind me a little bit of if hap you can and you know, always been two strains of right wing populism. In America. One is sort of pitched at the middle class and targets well off and big corporations. And that's really the strain that brat talked about in his stump speech. I mean, he attacked Eric Cantor for being close to Wall street, for being close to the banks. His biggest applause line in the stump speeches I watched was when he railed about the fact that no bankers were arrested after the financial crisis. Three big pieces of legislation he attacked Cantor for were, one, the farm bill, which he said doesn't go to small family farms, it goes to big agribusiness control. Correctly. Right. I mean, these are all things that liberals support. Two, he attacked the flood insurance bill because he said it benefits basically, you know, rich people with nice mansions on the coasts. And then the third thing he attacked Cantor for was something called the Stock Act. Remember, there was a scandal over a Congressman basically doing insider trading, trading on information they learned about Congress to make money. There was a 60 Minutes piece on it. Well, Congress, there was a bill to shut that down. And Brad attacked Cantor for basically gutting that bill and allowing the spouses of Congressmen to continue to trade on this information. All those attacks have to do with big government being in bed with big business. And that was really the frame he used for the whole campaign, even on immigration, which early in the campaign he just sort of briefly mentioned. Later in the campaign, it became the centerpiece. He would talk about immigration, not as I don't like these Mexicans streaming across the border. There was never that sort of darker element. It was this bill. This immigration bill in the Senate was written by corporate interests, and it's basically a sop to big business to get cheap labor into the country, and it's going to depress the wages for the middle class. He attacked the Business Roundtable very specifically and the Chamber of Commerce in that sense. He sort of distilled pieces that have always been in the Tea Party messaging, but more effective than a lot of other candidates out there.
- [13:36]
B
So, Ryan, just quickly, how is this going to shake things up in the House? Kanter is going to resign his position as Majority Leader next month. He's endorsed his friend, House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy, to replace him. What does that mean for Boehner and everything else in the House?
- [13:51]
C
So this is mostly at the level of speculation, but, you know, a lot of people have been waiting to hear from Boehner about whether he is going to stay on as speaker of the House. And most of the reporting now is that this will encourage him to stay on because there needs to be stability in the leadership. And he worries what would happen if he steps down. Now, of course, conservatives who have been frustrated by the House Republican leadership because, you know, one of their complaints is, well, there's no one from a red state in the leadership. Right. Virginia went for Obama. That's Cancer state. Ohio went for Obama. That's Boehner state. And McCarthy's from California, also an Obama state. And so especially the very large, very conservative Texas delegation, the House of Representatives Republican delegation, they really want one of their conservatives in one of those leadership posts.
- [14:38]
B
And, John, how has all this shaken up the Republican Party for 2016? It seems that Ted Cruz's hopes for the Republican nomination are better now.
- [14:47]
D
Yeah. I mean, one of the media reactions was that Cruz and Jeb Bush have been, you know, have been given a bit of a boost here. But I think more immediately, rather than 2016, you know, the 2014 midterms are going to be impacted. That's where the story is now. All eyes are going to be on Mississippi in a couple of weeks where Chris McDaniel, the sort of Tea Party insurgent, is challenging Senator Tad Cochrane. And there's been a. The first race wasn't determinate, so there's a runoff if Cochrane comes back and defeats McDaniel. I think the sort of Karl Rove line, the sort of the adults are back in charge and Republican Party's becoming a bit more moderate, you'll still be able to make that argument. But if McDaniel wins, and he may well win, it's a very, very close race, and a lot of people think he will win and the senator loses, that'll be another big boost for the insurgents.
- [15:37]
B
And the Tea Party, are they focusing on immigration?
- [15:40]
C
And a lot of it is Cochran being out of touch with the state. You know, he's.
- [15:44]
D
That's the same. That's the same issue as Cantor.
- [15:46]
C
Yeah, he's not around.
- [15:48]
D
I always wonder about this, Ryan. I mean, you know, these guys go to Washington to represent the state, and then they get attacked for going to Washington. What should they do? Stay at home and not go to Washington?
- [15:56]
B
Well, everybody hates, you know, the status quo in Washington, but then they elect people who make sure that the state of paralysis continues.
- [16:03]
D
Yeah, I mean, Cantor did go home every weekend. I mean, the last couple of months. It's not that he wasn't stomping around the district. Apparently he was since the start of.
- [16:10]
C
The year, as you pointed out. It's not that he didn't see this coming. He spent what I think a million dollars. Was it John I think it's maybe.
- [16:16]
D
More too, I thought or something.
- [16:18]
C
Yeah. So that's quite a bit of money to stamp out a challenger like this who only had $200,000. So he did take it seriously. And of course now, as John points out, maybe he took it too seriously. Maybe he elevated his opponent in his attempt to crush him.
- [16:30]
B
John, are people overreacting to this or are we seeing sort of Tea Party resurgence?
- [16:37]
D
I think, you know, there are two strands here. The Tea Party clearly hasn't gone away at a local level. There are still a lot of people who support it. As Ryan said, there's still this sort of right wing media establishment, their counter establishment, which is always going to support these types of candidates. So it's not gone away. At the same time, the Republican sort of counteroffensive, the GOPRNC counteroffensive is real too, and has had some big successes in places like North Carolina and Kentucky and Arkansas. So that's real too. It looked like they were sleeping the floor. Now we're going to have to wait and see. So I think we should just wait and see how things play out in another couple of elections before sort of reaching any firm conclusions here.
- [17:19]
C
It's like any insurgency, you know, if you are a less well funded, on the ground group of insurgents, what you want to do is you want to pick your political battles very carefully and you want maximum publicity and you want to take out a big general on the other side. So I still think that that's what's such a big deal about this, is that they took out Eric Cantor, they took out the number two, and that sort of revived the movement in a sense. It's changed the way that a lot of political commentators think about the Tea Party movement after, you know, after a series of elections where it didn't think they were having any big victories.
- [17:53]
B
And Ryan, final question, how is it affecting Democrats?
- [17:57]
C
You know, so I think part of.
- [17:58]
D
Running up their drinks tabs, I think they're celebrating so much.
- [18:02]
C
Yeah, but I'm a little puzzled by why, if you care about stuff getting done in Washington. On the one hand, look, Eric Cantor was not exactly someone who, you know, it's not someone who compromised. It's not someone who was on the side of getting things done over sticking to his ideology. And so in that sense, you know, losing Cantor in the House of Republican leadership may be a good thing. Of course, he might be replaced by someone who's even more difficult to deal with. So, you know, I wouldn't be exactly jumping up and down If I were a Democrat who cared about Washington working, I mean, the fact that the Republican Party's moving further to the right isn't good if you want get legislation passed. On the other hand, I'm fascinated by Brat's message and some of the similarities with people like Elizabeth Warren on the left and this sort of this emerging strain of anti big business Republicanism and who knows, that could create some odd bedfellows coalitions in Congress in years to come.
- [18:59]
B
And also could be troublesome for Hillary Clinton, you know, the big establishment candidate.
- [19:05]
C
Absolutely. And you know, I think one thing that's happening on the left, people on the left are looking at the Tea Party insurgency and thinking, well, why isn't there more of a grassroots phenomenon like that on the left? And you're now seeing, obviously people have been talking about Elizabeth Warren in that context, but Bernie Sanders, now people are talking about him perhaps challenging Hillary Clinton from the left in a primary. And there is a little bit of jealousy, I notice from people on the left with the success of the Tea Party and it's sort of, you know, revving up that side.
- [19:32]
B
Okay, thank you. Both Ryan Lizza and John Cassidy are staff writers and John blogs regularly for new yorker.com this has been the political scene from the New Yorker. I'm Dorothy Wickenden.
- [19:44]
C
You can subscribe to this podcast and other free New Yorker podcasts in the itunes store. The weekly audio edition of the magazine is available@Audible.com New Yorker subscribers can access the digital edition for tablets and phones at no extra charge from the App store or from Google Play day.
- [20:03]
E
What the hell is going on right now? And why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis. And maybe you are too. I'm Katie Drummond, the global editorial director of Wired, and I'm hosting our new podcast series, the Big Interview. Each week I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big Interview conversations are fun.
- [20:31]
C
I want a shark that, that eats.
- [20:33]
E
The Internet, that turns it all off, unfiltered and unafraid.
- [20:36]
C
So in a lot of ways, I try to be an antidote to the unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online.
- [20:43]
E
To the best of my ability, every week, we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of our times. Meaning and context. True or false. You, Brian Johnson, the man sitting across from me. One day, at some point, as of yet undefined, in the future, you will die. False. Tell me more. Listen to the big interview right now in the same place you find WIRED's Uncanny Valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.
- [21:15]
C
From. PRX.