The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Special Episode: War in Iran

Date: March 2, 2026
Host: Tyler Foggatt
Guest: Ishan Tharoor

Episode Overview

In this urgent special episode, The New Yorker’s Tyler Foggatt speaks with foreign affairs journalist Ishan Tharoor in the immediate aftermath of a stunning US-Israeli joint military operation against Iran. Their conversation addresses the unprecedented assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, the rapid escalation into open warfare across the Middle East, the competing goals of global and regional powers, and the uncertain prospects for de-escalation. They also discuss the wider economic, diplomatic, and humanitarian consequences of America’s most overt regime change effort in decades.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

The Unique Gravity of the Moment

• [00:03–02:46]
  • The US and Israel’s strikes, including Khamenei’s killing, mark a dramatic departure from previous proxy conflicts.
  • Ishan Tharoor:

    “We've not seen this scale of decapitation carried out by the United States before in this manner. We've not seen the kind of very overt attempt to extinguish a near half-century long revolutionary project by the US in this manner.” (01:42)

  • Iran’s size, regional importance, and complex political structure mean this war could have far-reaching consequences.

Comparing Iran with Venezuela and Libya

• [02:46–06:11]
  • The “Venezuela scenario” – swift regime ouster and installation of a client leadership – is not viable in Iran.
  • Iran’s leadership is far more deeply rooted, with multiple powerful centers and ideological legacies.
  • The constitutional process now involves a collective triumvirate choosing a successor, but no clear direction is evident.
  • Ishan Tharoor:

    “It’s much more likely to break than to bend.” (05:53)

Trump’s Endgame—and Its Lack

• [06:11–09:08]
  • Trump’s statements have been contradictory and improvisational, suggesting little strategic foresight.
  • Notable quote from Trump (as reported):

    “The attack was so successful, it knocked out most of the candidates. It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead. Second or third place is dead...” (06:23, quoted by Foggatt)

  • Tharoor calls the current approach “a pretty surreal state of affairs,” reflecting an over-optimistic bet on internal revolution rather than planning for realistic outcomes.

Motivations & Timing of Strikes

• [09:08–11:03]
  • Israel’s long-standing push for war with Iran, with Netanyahu finally seeing his 40-year wish fulfilled.
  • US rationale includes preemptive defense, vengeance for Iran’s own brutality, and exploiting perceived Iranian weakness.
  • “Iran is weakened, more weakened than it's ever been... And of course, we cannot forget that in January, the Iranian regime carried out a horrific set of massacres of its own people.” (09:37)

Regional Escalation and Fallout

• [13:36–17:52]
  • Iran’s retaliation has struck a “wide arc” of Gulf countries with hundreds of drones and missiles, upending the image of Gulf oases like Dubai.
  • The strikes risk altering alliances: some Gulf states may double down on US/Israeli partnerships, while others seek arrangements with China, Turkey, India, or Pakistan.
  • Tharoor:

    “It's a pretty complicated scenario, but we're looking at another sort of slow process of the Pax Americana crumbling, mostly by the actions of the Americans.” (17:25)

Economic & Diplomatic Reverberations

• [17:52–19:52]
  • Oil prices rising; disruptions threaten both global energy flows and US relationships.
  • Trump relies on Gulf allies for other regional projects (e.g., Gaza reconstruction), now jeopardized by the spreading conflict.
  • The Board of Peace’s prospects dwindle as partners shift focus to the Iranian crisis.

Military Realities & Chaos

• [21:08–23:53]
  • Friendly fire (Kuwaiti air defenses downing US jets) evidences the war’s chaos and allies’ unreadiness.
  • Gulf military forces are untested; their air defenses and supply chains will be strained by enduring conflict.
  • The instability may play into Iran’s hands, recreating previous Red Sea/Houthi-type standoffs but on a larger scale.
  • Ishan Tharoor:

    “It's a complete strategic shit show there. Forgive me if I use language I shouldn't use.” (22:25)

Endgame Scenarios: Incoherence, Diverging Interests, and Perils

• [24:45–34:11]
  • Trump’s timeline predictions (“two or three days”, then “four to five weeks”) are inconsistent. No evidence of a real negotiating strategy.
  • US, Israel, and Gulf states each have fundamentally different goals:
    • Israel: strategic degradation, not state-building
    • Trump: wants a functioning, friendly regime to claim victory
    • Gulf monarchies: want stability, now in jeopardy
  • Tharoor:

    “On one hand, he [Trump] believes that this is a regime change mission. On the other, he seems to indicate that he wants a kind of Venezuela style solution.” (25:54)

  • Real prospect: “prolonged chaos,” not orderly regime transition.

Internal Iranian Dynamics & Repression

• [29:23–31:11]
  • The regime’s capacity for brutal repression (“mass arrests, disappearances”) is likely to increase under cover of war.
  • “It's a brutal system that probably is on its last legs, but it's still very capable of inflicting harm in the aim of saving itself.” (31:00)

The Pattern of Regime Change: Why Never Learn?

• [34:11–37:33]
  • The enduring “primordial urge” in Washington for regime change: an institutional priority, despite historic failures.
  • The drive is ideological—a mix of “primacism” and aversion to anti-American rhetoric and revolutionary legacies.
  • Tension: Trump’s supposed skepticism about regime change vanishes in the face of “muscular America first globalism.”
  • Ishan Tharoor:

    “It’s a genuine industry of wonks and policymakers and lobbyists who are sustained and motivated by the cause of regime change in Iran...” (35:35)
    “[America’s] embrace of this kind of muscular America first globalism, which is a kind of unvarnished militarist quasi imperialism, I guess. And that's where we are right now.” (37:20)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We've not seen this scale of decapitation carried out by the United States before in this manner.”
  — Ishan Tharoor (01:42)

• “The attack was so successful, it knocked out most of the candidates. It's not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead.”
  — Quoting Donald Trump (06:23, cited by Foggatt)

• “It's a complete strategic shit show there. Forgive me if I use language I shouldn't use.”
  — Ishan Tharoor (22:25)

• “We're looking at another sort of slow process of the Pax Americana crumbling, mostly by the actions of the Americans.”
  — Ishan Tharoor (17:25)

Important Timestamps & Segments

• 00:03 — Episode opens; overview of the attack, Khamenei’s killing, and interview introduction
• 01:42 — Tharoor explains the unprecedented scale of US action
• 06:23 — Trump’s quote on unknowingly killing all succession candidates
• 09:08 — Motivations: US, Israel, and the timeline of strikes
• 13:36 — Regional escalation: Iran attacks across the Gulf
• 17:52 — Economic fallout and the strategic cost of further war
• 21:08 — Friendly-fire and military chaos among US regional allies
• 24:45 — Varied and unclear visions for ending the war
• 29:23 — Iranian regime’s instability, repression, and prospects for internal chaos
• 34:11 — The historical, ideological drive for regime change in the US

Conclusion

This episode provides a sobering, in-depth look at the sudden breakdown of order in the Middle East following the US-Israeli operation in Iran. It underscores the absence of sound planning, conflicting objectives among allies, the risk of prolonged instability, and the perennial American fantasy of easy regime change. Tharoor and Foggatt conclude that, contrary to familiar Washington scripts, the prospects for a peaceful, stable outcome in Iran—and indeed the region—are thinner than ever, with profound and unpredictable global consequences.