The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Steve Coll and Dexter Filkins on new developments in Iraq
Date: June 20, 2014
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: Dexter Filkins, Steve Coll

Overview

In this episode, Dorothy Wickenden discusses the rapidly intensifying crisis in Iraq and Syria with New Yorker staff writers Dexter Filkins and Steve Coll. With ISIS sweeping across northwestern Iraq, there are urgent questions about the effectiveness of U.S. policy, the deepening sectarian conflict in the region, and what might lie ahead for Iraq, its government, and its people. The conversation explores the roots of the current conflict, the impact of Western intervention, and the near-absence of promising political solutions.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Rapid Expansion of ISIS in Iraq and Syria

[02:10 – 03:37]

• Filkins details ISIS's dramatic advances, capturing Mosul, progressing to Baiji and even threatening Baghdad.
  • "It's pretty dramatic the way they've swept first into Mosul and then basically down the Tigris... even into Uba, which are close to Bakuba, which is just outside of Baghdad." — Dexter Filkins, [02:44]
• The Syrian civil war provided ISIS with sanctuary and a base to launch its advance into Iraq, effectively erasing the Syria-Iraq border.

2. Ba'athist Alliances and Sunni Discontent

[03:37 – 04:56]

• Discussion of Saddam Hussein's Sunni loyalists, particularly Izzat al-Douri, cooperating with Islamist fighters.
  • "It's not that surprising, though, that he [al-Douri] would team up with the Islamists... So that much isn't new. I think what's troubling about it is that it suggests that ISIS... has a much broader political appeal, and it probably can speak for a lot of Sunni discontent in Iraq." — Dexter Filkins, [04:17]

3. The Root of Sectarian Conflict

[04:56 – 06:40]

• Steve Coll reviews the U.S.'s critical post-invasion decisions: disbanding the Iraqi army and excluding Ba'ath party members, fueling sectarianism.
• Funding from Gulf states, seeking to counter Iran, has perpetuated the Sunni-Shia divide.
  • "This is a sectarian war now... as it already has been in the last couple of weeks, a war of civilian beheadings and bodies dumped in the night." — Steve Coll, [06:14]

4. Limits of Power-sharing and Maliki’s Sectarianism

[07:29 – 09:14]

• Maliki's refusal to meaningfully cooperate with Sunnis and Kurds undermines proposals for power-sharing.
  • "Maliki, at a moment like this, is not... going to be in a bargaining mood... Maliki has been sectarian to the core, and that's really at the heart of this." — Dexter Filkins, [07:50]
• The lack of genuine dialogue makes a political solution highly improbable.

5. Skepticism of Military Intervention & Negotiations

[09:46 – 11:38]

• Coll criticizes calls (e.g., from Anne-Marie Slaughter) for limited force to push parties to negotiations.
  • "I don't find it convincing in the circumstances because I don't know what kind of negotiating table anybody's going to be driven to in these circumstances... The idea that under this kind of bloodlust, suddenly people are going to be shocked into cooperation..." — Steve Coll, [10:32]
• Existing political processes have failed to produce unity; military intervention is unlikely to change that.

6. U.S.-Iran Dialogue and the Problem of Drones

[11:38 – 14:37]

• Limited talks were held with Iran about stemming ISIS, but there’s no clear U.S. strategy for the region.
• Coll describes how drone strikes are seen from Pakistan, noting their limitations:
  • "To think that you're going to win a war from the sky entirely by drone strikes is a fantasy... This is an insurgency. It's not a terrorist group, and it uses terrorism as a tactic." — Steve Coll, [13:38]

7. Obama’s Counterterrorism Strategy and U.S. Policy Dilemmas

[14:37 – 16:28]

• Filkins is skeptical about the effectiveness of Obama’s proposed $5 billion counterterrorism fund for countries like Iraq.
  • "If the United States starts to undertake airstrikes on his behalf, then we... are responsible... for what he's doing." — Dexter Filkins, [15:10]
• U.S. support for Maliki might reduce his incentive to enact necessary changes.

8. The Consequences of U.S. Involvement

[16:28 – 17:42]

• The hosts agree that the Iraq invasion fueled the spread of militant Islam rather than containing it.
  • "We were warned about this by our oil despot friends in the Gulf. They told us we would be uncapping something we couldn't control and that would spread outside of Iraq's borders." — Steve Coll, [16:44]

9. Iraq’s Bright Spots: Tunisia and Kurdistan

[17:42 – 20:24]

• Tunisia is highlighted as a rare Arab Spring success, maintaining constitutional government.
• Filkins discusses Iraqi Kurdistan as a notable region of stability and autonomy amid chaos:
  • "The one bright spot in all this is Kurdistan... you have essentially a reasonably democratic, pro-western, secular... region right in the heart of the Middle East." — Dexter Filkins, [18:12]
  • Kurdish forces seized Kirkuk during the ISIS advance, further strengthening their autonomy.

Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On the collapse of the Iraqi military:
  "We saw four divisions disappear before the ISIS onslaught. They just left and deserted." — Dexter Filkins, [15:47]

• On drone warfare:
  "This kind of terrorism, which is embedded in an insurgency... is just a tactical kind of expression of a much broader, deeper problem than 10 terrorists sitting around a table thinking about what they're going to blow up tomorrow." — Steve Coll, [14:12]

• On the Kurdish drive for independence:
  "It's always been a bit of a trick, which is as long as the Kurds don't say out loud that they're independent, they can more or less act as an independent state." — Dexter Filkins, [19:37]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 02:10: Dexter Filkins describes ISIS’s actions in Iraq and the group's roots in Syria
• 03:37: Analysis of Ba’athist involvement and broader Sunni discontent
• 04:56: Steve Coll explains how U.S. post-invasion decisions inflamed sectarianism
• 07:29: Maliki’s intransigence and the implausibility of power-sharing
• 09:46: Debate about the limits of military force and the political process
• 11:38: Brief on U.S.–Iran talks over Iraq
• 12:36: Coll’s critique of drone-based counterterrorism
• 14:37: Filkins analyzes Obama’s counterterrorism partnership fund
• 16:28: The U.S. role in the rise of militant Islam in the region
• 17:42: Glimmers of hope: Tunisia and Kurdistan amid regional turmoil

Conclusion

This episode delivers a sober examination of the multi-layered crisis unfolding in Iraq and Syria. Filkins and Coll reject simple solutions, casting doubt on both U.S. military intervention and the prospect of meaningful negotiation. The rise of ISIS, sectarian divides, deep Sunni grievances, and the limitations of American influence are all examined in their historical and regional context. Amid a generally bleak outlook, Kurdistan stands out as a rare example of stability, autonomy, and hope in the Middle East.