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The Political Scene | The New Yorker
Steve Coll and John Cassidy on U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East.
00:17:20
Steve Coll and John Cassidy on U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East.
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- [00:00]
Asma Khalid
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- [01:14]
Podcast Sponsor/Announcer
This episode of the Political Scene is brought to you by Squarespace, the all in one platform that makes it fast and easy to create your own professional website or online portfolio. For a free trial and 10% off, go to squarespace.com and use offer code Sense S E.
- [01:33]
Dorothy Wickenden
This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about Politics. It's Thursday, February 6th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. In a State of the Union address last week, President Obama briefly mentioned some developments in foreign policy.
- [01:49]
John Cassidy
As we gather here tonight, Iran has begun to eliminate its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium. It's not installing advanced centrifuges. Unprecedented inspections help the world verify every day that Iran is not building a bomb.
- [02:06]
Dorothy Wickenden
John Cassidy and Steve Kahl are here to talk about Obama's diplomatic efforts in the region. John, you blogged this week that John Kerry could be the most important Secretary of State since Henry Kissinger. Elaborate on that a bit.
- [02:18]
John Cassidy
I think Kerry is a very big figure this year just because he's playing a key role in you know, three big foreign policy issues. Iran, Syria, and the Arab Israeli conflict. Now, each one of those is torturous problem in its own right. But I think Kerry has been given more latitude by the White House than Hillary Clinton was during her time to do something about this. I mean, to some extent, the White House seems to have handed over the Middle east to Kerry and say, see what you can do with it. And if he makes any progress on any of these big problems, it will be a sort of historic achievement on his part. And if he doesn't, it'll have disastrous consequences. I mean, you already mentioned Iran. If there isn't a settlement reached, it looks like, you know, what are the options? Either military action on the part of Israel and the United States, or we accept that Iran's got a nuclear weapon. If you look at Syria, if the whole chemical deal falls apart, as it looks like it might do now, what sort of consequences will that have? And then, of course, the Arab Israeli conflict, it looks like just because the settlements are expanding at such a rate, it looks like if there isn't a deal done soon, then there'll never be a deal done. So I wasn't making the argument that Kerry's got, you know, the most successful Secretary of State in recent history. We don't know that yet, but I think he's got the opportunity to be a very significant figure.
- [03:37]
Dorothy Wickenden
Steve, do you agree with John?
- [03:39]
Steve Kahl
Yes. That he is sitting on three perilous negotiations and very actively engaged in them? I think they are distinct cases. In Syria's case, as Kerry himself admitted, the Obama administration's policy is failing. The question is, can that failure be contained short of another round of humanitarian suffering that revives talk of international intervention in the civil war?
- [04:06]
Dorothy Wickenden
I wanted to ask you about this, about Kerry's statement that the administration's policy in Syria is failing. Was he off the reservation there? It just seems surprising that he came out as aggressively as he seemed to and, you know, basically said that the moderate rebels should be armed, which seemed to be not at all what Obama had been saying up till then.
- [04:27]
Steve Kahl
I'm not sure why he said that in public. I mean, there has been a long argument inside the cabinet about the question of whether the moderate rebel should be armed. You can never really tell why someone as experienced as Kerry says something like that in public. It can be deliberately intended as a signal to, say, rest of allies like Britain and France that might want to get back to the question of arming rebels more systematically. It can be a warning, attempted to intimidate Assad and Russia and Iran. Or it could just be a rare bit of truth telling by an otherwise.
- [05:01]
Dorothy Wickenden
Fairly careful diplomat and indicating that the internal schisms in Al Qaeda, the rise of ISIS in particular in Syria, is frightening and it's happening very quickly.
- [05:12]
Steve Kahl
Well, and this is another reason why he might have signaled this, because one of the big changes in the goals of this fair policy over the last year has been away from the focus on Assad's departure and toward management and containment of the jihadist element of the rebellion. And a rationale for the negotiation was to create post war politics inside Syria that might isolate the jihadis. Now, that's failed. But the goal of isolating the jihadis hasn't failed or reducing their influence and power on the battlefield. So the alternative is to try to attempt that under arms by identifying moderate nationalist rebels, including some who sanctioned or participated indirectly in the Geneva talks, who could become an instrument analogous to the Anbar tribes that are now trying to take back Fallujah from the Al Qaeda affiliated groups there. So this is really a new policy that hasn't quite been articulated this way, in which the primary goal is not the overthrow of Assad anymore, it's to prevent jihadis in Syria from becoming security disaster.
- [06:20]
Dorothy Wickenden
And what about the dangers of Assad's chemical weapons? You've written quite a bit about the dangers of loose nukes, and it's been an overriding concern of Obama's. What's your current level of uneasiness?
- [06:32]
Steve Kahl
Well, I fear that Assad recognizes that he has won this entire negotiation. Since he used chemical weapons. He bought himself an enormous amount of time and space to crush the rebels, which he has been doing systematically since last August when this deal was cut to remove his chemical weapons. And now he's taken a page out of Saddam Hussein's book, which is, ah, maybe he won't actually deliver on his part of that bargain. I don't think that means the chemical weapons are going to go rogue and be an immediate danger to international security. But I think they'll probably be bottled up in whatever warehouse condition they are, unsatisfactorily and not destroyed, as was agreed, probably for an indefinite time.
- [07:14]
Dorothy Wickenden
John, back to Iran for a second. This week, the Senate finally agreed to hold off on new sanctions. Why were Democrats in the Senate so keen to impose new sanctions against the administration's desires?
- [07:28]
John Cassidy
Well, I think there's a couple of factors. Obviously, traditionally, Iran has been seen as a great enemy of the US and the senators to some extent are just reflecting popular opinion. Obviously the Israeli Lobby in Washington played a big role, too, has been lobbying a lot of these senators to come come up with new sanctions. There's a big fight back by the administration, putting a lot of pressure on these senators, especially Carl Levin of Michigan, and it seems to have worked. Looks like there's not going to be a vote on sanctions now for a few months. I mean, I think in the end, the administration's argument is strong enough to win over even the people who are very skeptical of Iran. I mean, it's very hard to argue with what the administration is saying, which is that, look, we don't trust Iran, but we've got this deal on the table, an interim agreement. It would be crazy to blow it all up now before we see how far we can move the Iranians in our direction. We have an inspections regime in place so they can't cheat on it. Let's just give it a few months and see how far it goes. The talks haven't even started yet on the sort of permanent agreement. They're due to start later this month. You know, that's an encouraging sign. It looked for a while as if the sort of internal politics of Washington would blow the whole thing up before it even really got going. At least the process is going to continue for another few months and give the West a chance to test how serious Iran is about this.
- [08:48]
Dorothy Wickenden
Well, and as you said in your blog post, Kerry has been absolutely tireless in seeking a framework agreement between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, which is ever a thankless task. How is that going, especially given Obama's historically prickly relationship with Netanyahu and Netanyahu's unwillingness to concede much of anything on the West Bank.
- [09:09]
John Cassidy
So that's another tricky issue which I think Kerry deserves a bit of credit for. I must say. I myself was very skeptical that he'd ever get anywhere with this peace process. I thought it, it was just, you know, the sort of thing which Secretary of State say when they come into office that they'll make another effort in the Middle East. But he seems to have been really serious about it. He's got a hundred, more than 100 people working on it. They've got very detailed plans. Apparently the Israeli government itself has been surprised at, you know, not just the level of enthusiasm from Kerry, but the level of detail he's presenting. Now. He hasn't put anything out there publicly yet, of course, you know, this sort of land for peace deal. Everybody assumes he's got a map in his back pocket. But so far, I mean, Netanyahu and especially members of his cabinet have been very negative about the prospect of a deal. But Netanyahu himself hasn't ruled it out. Now, of course, because of the internal politics of Israel, it looks like he'd have to break up his coalition to even take the idea seriously. And a lot of people are skeptical about whether he's going to do that. But as of now, the process is still going ahead.
- [10:07]
Dorothy Wickenden
What do you think, Steve? The prospects are well, I just don't.
- [10:11]
Steve Kahl
See evidence that any coalition that could sustain power in the Israeli government believes that a framework agreement on a two state solution is an urgent matter. I understand that they need to ride out American pressure. I understand that there's anxiety rising about what Tom Friedman called the third intifada the other day, the economic boycott against Israeli institutions that do business in the West Bank. But having read Ari Shavit's great book over the Christmas break, I mean, I just came away depressed by the political demography in Israel and the sort of gap between the way the rest of the world sees the urgency of this tattered two state framework and the way Israeli politics is set up at the moment. So I'm skeptical more on kind of fundamentals than on the energy or sort of technical commitment that Kerry is making to the negotiation.
- [11:08]
Dorothy Wickenden
Steve, you mentioned Ari Shavit's book My Promised Land. Does he argue that it's too late for a two state solution?
- [11:15]
Steve Kahl
He doesn't. He just. It's such a beautiful book. I recommend it highly. But it's an accumulating portrait of how Israel has changed since its founding. Quite inspiring in many ways. But it leaves you with an impression that demographic and political changes have separated Israel into two sorts of political the secular demography around the Turkish Tel Aviv and the great innovators in the tech industry and the political demography associated with the settler movement and that the gap between them, the kind of fragmenting of Zionism, just makes it fundamentally hard in Israeli politics to take the risks associated with a deal like this. And where does the will come from?
- [12:03]
Dorothy Wickenden
I want to ask you about Afghanistan and how you reacted to the news that Karzai has been secretly discussing a peace agreement with the Taliban. You've written about the series of conversations that have gone on over the years, including with the US earlier. What is Karzai up to now?
- [12:18]
Steve Kahl
He should be a lame duck. He should be irrelevant. He is term limited out. He has accepted that he's not running. There's an election coming in about two months and yet he's made himself indispensable by thrashing around holding the Americans at bay. And also what he's really doing is holding candidates to succeed him at bay. But by basically not endorsing a successor and tying his potential endorsement to these positions he's taken, defying the Americans. As to American policy, I honestly don't think that the Americans are trapped by Karzai's behavior. They recognize that he is acting out a kind of transition strategy of his own to make himself relevant in the last months that he has and to secure his legacy in Afghanistan, Afghan history. As someone who didn't capitulate to the Americans at the end of his time. That's how he wants to be remembered and he can be waited out. There's no real reason why the United States has to decide one way or another what it's going to do until it sorts out what Karzai's successor wants to do.
- [13:30]
Dorothy Wickenden
Okay, we'll take a quick break here, and we'll be right back.
- [13:32]
Podcast Sponsor/Announcer
This episode of the Political Scene is brought to you by Squarespace, the all in one platform to create your own professional website or online portfolio. It's incredibly easy to use, and every design automatically includes a unique mobile experience that will look great on every device every time. It starts at just $8 a month and includes a free domain name if you sign up for a year. For a free trial and a 10% discount, go to squarespace.com and use offer code sense. That's S E N S E. Now back to Dorothy Wickenden.
- [14:04]
Dorothy Wickenden
John, in recent weeks on this program, we've been talking about how Obama's laying the groundwork for his legacy on domestic policy. He really has explicit, explicitly avoided any doctrines to define his foreign policy. That's something that David Remnick got into in his big profile of him. How does Obama want his foreign policy to be perceived?
- [14:22]
John Cassidy
I think that's a great question. We've been having these debates about all these issues, and Obama is sort of the missing factor there. I mean, it's almost inconceivable to me that there could be a peace deal in the Middle east without the American president playing a big role towards the end. If Obama is serious about solving the Arab Israeli conflict, he is going to have to put his own credibility on the line at some point. Now, I agree with Steve that, you know, there are big questions about whether the Israelis are even willing to compromise. But if Netanyahu did give a signal that he was serious about this, he'd surely demand that the US President, you know, get involved and put his own personal reputation on the line as well. But Obama, even though it's his second term in second terms, especially when you've, you know, got the Congress on the other side, there is a strategic argument for concentrating on foreign policy, because that's where you can do something. You can't do anything much on domestic policy. We've seen that the State of the Union address was basically a collection very small bore proposals. But, you know, you think back to Clinton towards the end of his second term. What did he do? He started concentrating on the Middle east and he almost pulled off a historic peace deal. Obama, for whatever reason, not only doesn't want to lay down a doctrine, whatever the Obama doctrine is, he seems content to stay at home, really. He doesn't even seem, you know, very keen on traveling abroad. He doesn't have any particularly strong relationships with any strong foreign leaders, in a way. And it's sort of ironic given that he's such a cosmopolitan figure and, you know, a very educated man, but in some sense he seems to be sort of parochial, very sort of concentrated on America alone. That's the impression you get when you go around the world. People for right or wrong say, you know, Obama's basically drawn in America's horns and he's just not that interested in what happens overseas. I don't think that's fair. But if he's ever going to reverse that impression, this is the time to do it. And so far, he doesn't seem that keen on doing it. I don't know what Steve thinks.
- [16:11]
Steve Kahl
I think that's really well observed. I mean, it's a mystery. Part of it is temperamental. He hasn't invested in building relationships in the Senate any more than he's invested in building relationships with foreign leaders. But I agree he's not shown the energy or the temperament that would be required in the clinch. If Kerry does bring back a framework agreement that looks plausible. And, you know, in the end, in 2000, when Clinton tried and failed, he was bringing as much game as Bill Clinton had learned to bring to a negotiation. After eight years in office and decades in politics, retail politics, you know, he was pouring himself into that thing and it still didn't get there. The way that Obama negotiates is really always from a distance and not based on a long record of success up close. I mean, remember in Copenhagen, that kind of disaster, when he walked into the room and tried to negotiate directly, the whole thing fell apart over climate. So Kerry, on the other hand, you know, is having the time of his life. I mean, this is his last big job. He wanted to be president. He swallowed his disappointment. He stayed close to Obama. He made himself indispensable during the 2012 campaign, during the debate prep, was rewarded with this job, even though he swallowed his disappointment that the president might have preferred Susan Rice. And he just let it all roll off his back. And he's out there. He looks like a kid. He's got so much energy and he' obviously committed to all of this. So let's see what he can do.
- [17:52]
Dorothy Wickenden
Okay, thank you both. Steve Kahl is the author of Ghost the Secret history of the CIA, Afghanistan, and bin Laden from the Soviet invasion to September 10, among other books. He and John Cassidy are staff writers, and John blogs frequently for the New Yorker's website. This has been the political Scene from the New Yorker. I'm Dorothy Wickenden.
- [18:13]
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- [18:35]
Asma Khalid
America is changing, and so is the world.
- [18:39]
John Cassidy
But what's happening in America isn't just the cause of global upheaval. It's also a symptom of disruption that's happening everywhere.
- [18:47]
Asma Khalid
I'm Asma Khalid in Washington, D.C. i'm.
- [18:50]
John Cassidy
Tristan Redman in London, and this is the Global Story.
- [18:54]
Asma Khalid
Every weekday, we'll bring you a story from this intersection where the world and America meet.
- [18:59]
John Cassidy
Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.
- [19:07]
Steve Kahl
From. PRX.