Podcast Summary: The Political Scene | Steve Coll and John Cassidy on U.S. Diplomacy in the Middle East

Date: February 7, 2014
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: Steve Coll (referred to as "Steve Kahl" in transcript), John Cassidy

Overview

This episode of The Political Scene offers a deep dive into the Obama administration’s foreign policy in the Middle East, focusing on Secretary of State John Kerry’s high-stakes diplomatic efforts. The conversation covers the Iran nuclear negotiations, the Syrian conflict and chemical weapons, persistent Israeli-Palestinian tensions, and reflections on Obama’s foreign policy legacy. Staff writers Steve Coll and John Cassidy analyze U.S. strategy, regional dynamics, diplomatic leadership, and the interplay between domestic and international priorities.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. John Kerry’s Diplomatic Role in the Middle East

(02:06 – 03:37)

• John Cassidy sees Kerry as a potentially historic Secretary of State given his central involvement in Iran, Syria, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• The White House has given Kerry unusual latitude to drive Middle East diplomacy, more so than his predecessor, Hillary Clinton.
• Cassidy underscores the stakes: progress would be historic, but failure could have disastrous consequences, citing risks of new wars or accepting a nuclear Iran.
• Noteworthy comparison: John Kerry’s potential impact likened to Henry Kissinger.

Quote:

“The White House seems to have handed over the Middle East to Kerry and said, ‘see what you can do with it.’ If he makes any progress on any of these big problems, it will be a sort of historic achievement on his part. And if he doesn't, it'll have disastrous consequences.”
—John Cassidy (02:28)

2. U.S. Policy and Challenges in Syria

(03:37 – 06:19)

• Steve Coll affirms Kerry’s active (but fraught) engagement, noting that the administration’s Syria policy is “failing,” as Kerry himself admitted.
• Kerry’s public suggestion to arm Syrian moderates may be intended as a signal to allies or local actors, or possibly an unusually candid moment.
• The administration’s goals have shifted from removing Assad to containing jihadi groups like ISIS.
• Attempts to isolate jihadists through diplomacy have failed, leading to potential recalibration toward arming moderates.
• Coll doubts that Syria’s chemical weapons will become a global threat but criticizes the slow pace of their removal.

Quote:

“This is really a new policy that hasn’t quite been articulated this way, in which the primary goal is not the overthrow of Assad anymore, it’s to prevent jihadis in Syria from becoming [a] security disaster.”
—Steve Coll (05:55)

3. Iran Nuclear Talks and Congressional Sanctions

(07:14 – 08:47)

• Recent Senate decision to delay new Iran sanctions seen as a win for the administration.
• Cassidy attributes the Senate’s initial push to longstanding U.S. enmity toward Iran and strong lobbying by pro-Israel organizations.
• Administration has successfully argued for giving the diplomatic process a chance, as an interim deal and inspections are in place.
• Talks for a long-term agreement are imminent.

Quote:

“It would be crazy to blow it all up now before we see how far we can move the Iranians in our direction.”
—John Cassidy (07:58)

4. Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process Prospects

(08:47 – 12:02)

• Kerry is investing significant resources and energy, surprising Israelis with his detailed and committed approach.
• Internal Israeli politics present a major roadblock; Netanyahu may need to fracture his coalition for a deal.
• Steve Coll doubts any Israeli coalition in power sees urgency for a two-state solution, citing demographic and political divides.
• Reference to Ari Shavit’s book underscores the growing gap within Israeli society that hinders peace efforts.

Quotes:

“He’s got a hundred, more than 100 people working on it. They've got very detailed plans. Apparently, the Israeli government itself has been surprised at...the level of detail [Kerry’s] presenting.”
—John Cassidy (09:15)

“Demographic and political changes have separated Israel...the gap between them, the kind of fragmenting of Zionism, just makes it fundamentally hard in Israeli politics to take the risks associated with a deal like this. And where does the will come from?”
—Steve Coll (11:39)

5. Afghanistan: Karzai, the Taliban, and U.S. Policy

(12:02 – 13:29)

• Coll describes President Karzai as maneuvering to remain relevant as his term ends, balancing between defying the U.S. and retaining influence domestically.
• Coll says U.S. can afford to “wait out” Karzai and focus on engaging with his successor.

Quote:

“He should be a lame duck. He should be irrelevant. He is term limited out...and yet he’s made himself indispensable by thrashing around holding the Americans at bay.”
—Steve Coll (12:18)

6. Obama’s Foreign Policy Philosophy and Legacy

(14:03 – 17:52)

• Obama deliberately avoids framing a foreign policy doctrine, preferring pragmatism.
• Cassidy argues the president’s engagement on the Middle East has been limited, resembling a “parochial” focus despite his cosmopolitan background.
• Suggests true breakthroughs (like Israeli-Palestinian peace) require presidential involvement.
• Coll affirms Obama’s reluctance to invest in foreign leader relationships; contrasts with Kerry’s visible enthusiasm and hands-on approach.
• Clinton’s near miss at Middle East peace in his second term is referenced as instructive.

Quotes:

“If Obama is serious about solving the Arab Israeli conflict, he is going to have to put his own credibility on the line at some point...But Obama...seems to be sort of parochial, very sort of concentrated on America alone.”
—John Cassidy (14:29, 15:41)

“The way that Obama negotiates is really always from a distance and not based on a long record of success up close...[Kerry] looks like a kid. He's got so much energy and he's obviously committed to all of this.”
—Steve Coll (16:35, 17:40)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Kerry's approach:
  “He looks like a kid. He's got so much energy and he's obviously committed to all of this. So let’s see what he can do.”—Steve Coll (17:40)
• On U.S. policy priorities shifting in Syria:
  “The primary goal is not the overthrow of Assad anymore, it’s to prevent jihadis in Syria from becoming security disaster.”—Steve Coll (05:55)
• On the tough reality for Middle East peace:
  “It looks like if there isn’t a deal done soon, then there’ll never be a deal done.”—John Cassidy (02:56)
• On Obama’s foreign policy engagement:
  “It’s almost inconceivable to me that there could be a peace deal in the Middle East without the American president playing a big role toward the end.”—John Cassidy (14:27)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Kerry’s opportunity and challenges: 02:06–03:37
• Syria and U.S. policy recalibration: 03:37–06:19
• Chemical weapons and Assad: 06:19–07:14
• Iran nuclear talks and U.S. Congress: 07:14–08:47
• Israeli-Palestinian peace process: 08:47–12:02
• Afghanistan and Karzai’s maneuvering: 12:02–13:29
• Obama’s foreign policy philosophy and legacy: 14:03–17:52

Summary

This episode provides an intricate look at the crossroads of U.S. diplomacy in the Middle East, questioning whether the current administration can capitalize on diplomatic openings or will be stymied by intractable realities. Kerry’s energetic but challenging mission, the complexity of each regional hotspot, and the contrasting leadership styles of Obama and Kerry are all critically examined, leaving listeners with a sense of the stakes, skepticism about progress, and the enormous uncertainties ahead.