The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: Terrorism and the Presidency
Date: September 22, 2016
Host: Dorothy Wickenden (Executive Editor, The New Yorker)
Guests: John Cassidy (Staff Writer, The New Yorker), Steve Kahl (Staff Writer, The New Yorker)
Main Theme:
How terrorism shapes the presidential campaign, public perceptions of security threats, and the nuanced policy and temperament challenges facing the major 2016 candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Dorothy Wickenden is joined by New Yorker writers John Cassidy and Steve Kahl to dissect how recent terrorism events in the United States impact the political climate, especially as the 2016 presidential debate looms. The discussion probes how Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton address terrorism and national security, public perceptions versus realities of terrorist threats, and the unique political dynamics of fear, security, and temperament in an election year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Barack Obama’s United Nations Speech

[01:42-02:26]

• Obama addressed how extremism is fueled by sectarianism, religious fundamentalism, and dissatisfaction.
• Noteworthy Quote (Obama, 01:42):
  "We cannot dismiss these visions. They are powerful. They reflect dissatisfaction among too many of our citizens... Ultimately, for those who seek to reverse this progress today, a nation ringed by walls would only imprison itself."

2. Misconstrued Patterns in Terrorism

[02:26-04:08]

• Steve Kahl highlights research showing that:
  • A significant share (about one-fifth) of post-9/11 domestic terrorism cases involved right-wing or racially motivated plots, not just jihadist violence.
  • All cases involving weapons of mass destruction were in the right-wing extremist category.
  • The mainstream focus on jihadist terror overlooks the broader spectrum of domestic threats.
• Quote (Kahl, 02:59):
  "If you really want to step back and look at the problem, you have to take a much wider view than just the category of jihadist or ISIS inspired violence."

3. Terrorism's Impact on the Presidential Race

[04:08-06:22]

• Dorothy Wickenden sets up the political significance of terrorism for the first debate.
• John Cassidy challenges the assumption that terrorism fears automatically benefit Republicans/Trump:
  • Polls after major attacks (e.g., Orlando) did not show a significant Trump bounce.
  • Public perception of which candidate is better at handling terrorism is evenly divided.
  • Temperament is a key factor: Clinton scores much higher than Trump on having "the right temperament" to be president.
  • Trump’s challenge: show seriousness and steadiness; Clinton’s: leverage her strengths in experience and calmness.
• Quote (Cassidy, 04:40):
  "There’s a sort of common assumption that anything wreaking of terrorism ... plays to Republicans and plays to Donald Trump. But in polling data, there’s not actually much support for that.”

4. The Role of Fear in Voter Behavior

[06:22-08:07]

• Steve Kahl cites social science research:
  • Fear of terrorism tends to benefit trusted incumbents, not necessarily outsiders like Trump.
  • Trump is seen as “erratic” and lacking crisis management temperament; Clinton, while experienced, hasn't secured the public trust typically accorded to incumbents.
  • Clinton has an opportunity in debates to establish herself as steady and trustworthy, but must navigate Trump's unpredictable debate style.
• Quote (Kahl, 06:34):
  "Fear of terrorism does affect voting, but what it drives people toward are trusted incumbent leaders. And neither Trump nor Hillary Clinton fits exactly the mold..."

5. Real vs. Perceived Threats: Rise of Extremist Groups

[08:52-10:39]

• Rising number of hate and “patriot” groups in the US (SPLC data).
• Clinton is beginning to frame Trump as a creator of a new wave of domestic violence.
• Kahl encourages Clinton to be forthright and to focus her message on American pluralism and diversity, referencing powerful moments like Khizr Khan’s convention speech.
• Quote (Kahl, 09:24):
  "The best moments of her campaign have come when she has delivered an energized defense of American pluralism..."

6. Trump’s Rhetoric and Potential Debate Strategies

[10:39-11:19]

• Cassidy notes Trump could benefit from focusing calmly on facts (e.g., vetting, surveillance) rather than bombastic accusations.
• Cautions that inflammatory rants could backfire, while a more measured approach might gain moderate support.

7. Surveillance and Domestic Security Measures

[11:19-13:22]

• Discussion of new surveillance tactics in response to recent attacks:
  • Massive collaboration between law enforcement and intelligence, including "Orwellian" monitoring centers.
  • Online surveillance is intense, especially regarding ISIS sympathizers.
  • Legal and constitutional limitations hamper pre-crime investigations.
  • Clinton’s approach is more sophisticated, referencing European community-policing models, but implementation is challenging in the US due to demographic differences.
• Quote (Kahl, 11:41):
  "There is an enormous amount of online surveillance associated with ISIS communications... But, under our Constitution, speech does not constitute a basis for a criminal investigation."

8. Lone Wolf Attacks: Nature and Risk

[13:22-14:41]

• Lone attackers with firearms tend to be most deadly.
• Individuals or small groups with professional links can escalate attacks' sophistication.
• Recent bombings seen as “potent” but not yet professionally executed.
• Quote (Kahl, 13:25):
  "The most effective attacks are either a lone wolf who gets an assault rifle ... or an individual or a small group [who] make contact with professional bomb makers or tacticians..."

9. Trump’s Gun Comments and the Politics of Gun Control

[14:41-16:02]

• Trump’s controversial suggestion about Clinton’s bodyguards disarming is discussed as a debate flashpoint.
• Cassidy contends Clinton should highlight Trump’s inflammatory comments to underline his volatility, anticipating that the most memorable debate moments may result from his off-script remarks rather than policy details.
• Quote (Cassidy, 14:59):
  "Trump basically went off the reservation on this one... I think that will be part of the Clinton strategy to sort of make Trump seem unhinged."

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Obama, on responding to extremism (01:42):
  “A nation ringed by walls would only imprison itself.”

• Kahl, on misunderstood terrorism threats (02:59):
  “If you really want to step back and look at the problem, you have to take a much wider view than just the category of jihadist or ISIS inspired violence.”

• Cassidy, on polling and temperament (04:40):
  "Clinton's experience and a sort of perceived calmness under pressure seems to also...resonate with the public."

• Kahl, on campaign rhetoric (09:24):
  "The best moments of her campaign have come when she has delivered an energized defense of American pluralism..."

Important Timestamps

• 01:42: President Obama’s United Nations remarks on extremism and humanity.
• 02:59: Kahl discusses research on the true patterns of domestic terrorism.
• 04:40: Cassidy explains polling data that challenges conventional wisdom about terrorism benefiting Trump.
• 06:34: Kahl details voter responses to fear and candidates’ trust factors.
• 09:24: Kahl urges Clinton to be bold in condemning extremism and defending diversity.
• 11:41: Kahl on the realities and limits of surveillance against terrorism.
• 13:25: Kahl differentiates “lone wolf” versus organized attacks.
• 14:59: Cassidy on seizing Trump’s gun rhetoric as an advantage.

Conclusion

Throughout the episode, the hosts emphasize the complexities surrounding terrorism, public fear, and the political manipulation of these anxieties. They underscore both the diversity of actual threats—far beyond just Islamist violence—and the unpredictable ways these issues interact with campaign rhetoric, debate dynamics, and voter psychology. The consensus is that while both candidates face significant challenges in presenting their security credentials, temperament and a calm, experienced approach resonate most with voters in times of crisis—even as spectacle and sensationalism threaten to seize headlines.

This summary captures the key arguments, research insights, and notable debate strategies discussed by the panel, providing a comprehensive guide for those who haven't listened to the episode.