← The Political Scene | The New Yorker
The Political Scene | The New Yorker
The Iran Plan
00:17:06
Steve Coll and Robin Wright join Dorothy Wickenden to discuss the implications of the nuclear talks with Iran.
Loading summary
Transcript33 lines
- [00:00]
Mint Mobile Advertiser
As summer draws to a close and the kids go back to school, I know I'm going to want to keep in touch with my kids at a price I can afford. Back to school Shopping can be a hassle, but your phone plan shouldn't be. That's why I made the switch to Mint Mobile. For a limited time, Mint mobile is offering three months of unlimited premium wireless service for 15 bucks a month. So while other parents are sweating overage charges, I have a little bit more room in my budget for cool back to school threads. Say bye bye to your overpriced wireless plan's jaw dropping monthly bills and unexpected overages, Mint Mobile is here to rescue you. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. Use your own phone with any Mint Mobile plan and bring your phone number along with all your existing contacts. Dish overpriced wireless and get three months of premium wireless service from Mint Mobile for 15 bucks a month. This year. Skip breaking a sweat and breaking the bank. Get this new customer offer and your three month unlimited wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month@mintmobile.com New Yorker that's that's mintmobile.com New Yorker upfront payment of $45 required, equivalent to $15 a month limited time new customer offer for first three months only. Speeds may slow above 35 gigabytes on unlimited plan. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details.
- [01:16]
Dorothy Wickenden
This is the Political Scene, a weekly conversation with New Yorker writers and editors about politics. It's Friday, July 10th. I'm Dorothy Wickenden, executive editor of the New Yorker. The Iranian nuclear negotiations have been underway for years and numerous deadlines have passed, including a few this week. Yesterday, a tired Secretary of State John Kerry spoke from Vienna. This is not open ended. You can't wait forever for the decision to be made. We know that if the tough decisions.
- [01:45]
Mint Mobile Advertiser
Don'T get made, we are absolutely prepared.
- [01:48]
Dorothy Wickenden
To call an end to this process. Stephen Kahl and Robin Wright are here to discuss the possibility of an historic agreement with Iran and and what it would mean for the region. Robyn Obama has made diplomacy with Iran a centerpiece of his international diplomacy. How involved has he been in these talks and what is his rationale for easing sanctions and the rest? Why is this so important to him?
- [02:10]
Robin Wright
Well, the President has been very involved, as you said, noting since the campaign making this a primary goal in his foreign policy, and he's stuck with this. It's been tough diplomacy, it's been a roller coaster, but he's been involved in a series of video conferences with the American teams wherever they are in Europe, Vienna, Lausanne, Geneva. Talking through the tiniest details, he brings together the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Secretary of Defense, National Security advisors. There's a whole team enmeshed in this process. And his thinking has to do with trying to turn a page on 36 years of tension with a revolutionary society and dealing with the very 21st century conflicts throughout the Middle East. You have a map that is beginning to be redrawn because of the conflicts in Syria and Iraq, now in Yemen, in Libya. And in some of those conflicts, Iran is one of the effective players as a supporter of one faction or the other. And, and there's a sense that none of these conflicts can be resolved unless Iran, which has the largest military in the region, has a more peaceful outcome rather than arming and aiding and abetting militants. And so it's part of a much broader picture in solving issues that the United States over the past decade has been unable to solve militarily.
- [03:37]
Dorothy Wickenden
Also, when you and I were talking the other day, you pointed out that to Iran, this isn't just about nuclear energy and weapons, it's about sovereignty. And we have this history of tortured relations with Iran. Could you just remind us very quickly what that's all about and what has been standing in the way for all of these years?
- [03:55]
Robin Wright
Well, obviously it goes back to 1953, when the CIA and British intelligence were involved in a coup against a democratically elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh, and brought the straw back to the Peacock throne. And that was a moment in which Iran brought believed it was trying to engage in a democratic transition and that it was aborted by foreign powers. And of course, that central issue flared up again in 1979 after the revolution. The United States decided to take in the ailing Shah, suffering men from cancer. And the Iranians believe that this was a moment that the US Was trying to put the Shah back in power again. So they took over the US Embassy. It was designed to be a protest for three to five days, and it ended up getting the endorsement of Ayatollah Khomeini. And it dragged on for 14 tortuous months. These two epic moments have defined relations ever since.
- [04:52]
Dorothy Wickenden
Steve. As we all know, Congressional Republicans and conservative commentators have just rigidly opposed negotiations from the start. They now say that the administration has caved on every major point. I believe Charles Krauthammer said this week that it is the worst agreement in U.S. diplomatic history or it would be if it passes. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says we should walk away in order to achieve a better deal. And even supporters worry about Iranian cheating. So we've actually had an interim agreement in place since 2013. How has that been working, and do the critics have a point?
- [05:29]
Stephen Kahl
Well, the interim agreement's been working fine. And look, a lot of that's just talking points. This is arriving now in the middle of a Republican primary and rolling into a campaign. And they hope to use foreign policy as a way to overcome some of their deficits in 16 around social issues. So it's not surprising that they're pounding the drum as loudly as they are. As to the substance of the agreement, we don't know because it hasn't been brought home in fine print yet. And I do think that the measure of its success politically in Congress will be judged by the kinds of centrist Democrats and former administration officials who signed that kind of strange petition letter a couple of weeks ago expressing their worries about the agreement and essentially spelling out what they required in order to support it. If they're satisfied by the final agreement, then I think the Obama administration can push it through and Hillary will have to figure out how to defend it during the campaign.
- [06:33]
Dorothy Wickenden
Steve, Ayatollah Khamenei could have called Zarif home, but he hasn't, at least as of today. How can the clerics reconcile their abhorrence of Israel and the west with this opening of relations?
- [06:45]
Stephen Kahl
Well, they know that their power does rest a little bit on popular consent, and that the Iranian people are anxious to be relieved of the economic suffering that they currently endure, which is partly related to the sanctions that have been imposed over the nuclear program. And but anyone who travels to Iran hears again and again that one of the subjects in Iranian politics is who will get credit for normalization with the United States. How will that play out as a source of internal advantage? And Khamenei is in the most precarious position because he has to straddle the potential benefits of being the leader who brought Iran back into the world economy with the resistance of his sort of hardline supporters in the national security state. And he's done that skillfully. And I think the fact that he's allowed these negotiations to go as far as they have and that they're as close as they have seemed to be this spring and summer, indicates that he's already decided that the benefits of a deal, if it can be properly constructed, far outweigh the costs.
- [07:55]
David Remnick
Right now, we are living through some of the most tumultuous political times our country has ever known. DAVID I'm David Remnick, and each week on the New Yorker Radio Hour, I'll try to make sense of what's happening alongside politicians and thinkers like Cory Booker, Nancy Pelosi, Liz Cheney, Tim Waltz, Ketanji Brown Jackson, Newt Gingrich, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Charlamagne, tha God, and so many more. That's all on the New Yorker Radio Hour wherever you listen to podcasts.
- [08:25]
Dorothy Wickenden
ROBIN Today, the country is celebrating, or has been celebrating, the Quds Day Festival, its annual protests against Israel. The official political slogans include death to America, death to Israel, death to global arrogance, death to international Zionism. But you've been back to Iran many times in recent years and you've talked to countless Iranians who are hoping desperately for a deal. Talk a little bit about that.
- [08:48]
Robin Wright
Well, you have a demographic phenomenon defining politics right now. Two thirds of the Iranian population has been born since the revolution. It is the most connected generation or group population in the Middle East. One of the things that's so striking is that there are people talk no longer about the ideal Islamic state, but how to use technology to change society. There are, you know, dozens of new startups. Iran has its own Amazon, its own Groupon, and that's where the majority of people are focused. This revolutionary rhetoric continues to be used by hardliners because for them, the revolution is at stake. They are terribly afraid that Iran, by dealing with the west, the United States particularly, is going through the same kind of phase the Soviet Union did under Gorbachev when he introduced perestroika and glasnost, that this is a transformative moment. And so some of the hardliners, the original revolutionaries, cling to this death to America rhetoric. Down with Israel, the Great Satan and the little Satan, as they call them. But there's so much more at stake than simply their attitude toward these particular countries. It's really does the revolutionary survive in its purest form or does it adapt to a globalized world?
- [10:06]
Stephen Kahl
The last time I was in Tehran, I happened to be there on Quds Day and I went down to the demonstration with a friend and it was all there was nobody there voluntarily. It was all 10th graders had been bussed in for the celebrations and lots of Death to America signs. And everyone wanted a selfie with the Americans. I mean, it couldn't have been a more friendly atmosphere and the cliche that the United States faces in the Middle East. In many Sunni Arab countries, elites that are pro Americans and populations that are deeply hostile, whereas in Iran, it faces elites that are mostly hostile or require hostility to maintain their power and a population that is really ready for change. I'm sure many travelers find the same experience that this is a society that is really ready to normalize.
- [10:55]
Dorothy Wickenden
Speaking of selfies, Robin, and earlier this week, you sent me a copy of a cover of a reformist magazine showing Obama taking a selfie in front of Azadi Square in Tehran. Talk a little bit about that and how much freedom of expression there is right now.
- [11:09]
Robin Wright
Well, one of the things that was so interesting was when the interim framework was announced in April and Iranian television opted to broadcast live, not delayed, not edited, President Obama's explanation of what was the deal involved and why it was important. And young Iranians particularly took selfies in front of the television showing Obama's speech. And it became something that was all over social media and Twitter. There is enormous amount of censorship by the regime. Millions of websites are banned. Access to social media has to be obtained through virtual private networks. The irony is that the Supreme Leader, the President, the Foreign Minister, all have Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google accounts, and they propagate their messages. I was looking at Ayatollah's Twitter account this morning in English, Farsi, Spanish, you know, and several other languages. Everyone knows that even though officially there is enormous restriction, the Iranians always find a way to engage. So we tend to think Iranians in terms of 1979 and the huge gap, the xenophobic revolution, when in fact that era is really over.
- [12:24]
Dorothy Wickenden
Steve, let's step back for a second to talk about some of the regional implications. Do you think Obama's focus too much on Iran to the exclusion of countries that already have the bomb, such as Pakistan, our ostensible friend?
- [12:36]
Stephen Kahl
Well, I think these negotiations have gone on for a long time, and to some extent, the strategic goal that the Obama administration is pursuing is still highly relevant and would mark a big change in the US Position in the Middle East. But at the same time, the region has changed enormously during the life of the negotiations because of the rise of ISIS and the challenge, the collapse of the Syrian and Libyan states and the deepening of the Yemeni civil conflict. And so the landscape has been changing like a kaleidoscope while the negotiations have been dragging on and on. So the context for the achievement is really quite different. And one of the ways it's different is that the Sunni states that were the traditional American allies that see themselves as being left behind by this pivot by the Obama administration toward Iran, are in a much more aggravated state than they were two years ago and more inclined to go their own way. You know, as to Pakistan and South Asia, that's not a region that's getting any better either. The Taliban are on the offensive again in Afghanistan. There's no sign of a political settlement. So I think even if these negotiations succeed, they're going to succeed in the middle of a maelstrom.
- [13:49]
Dorothy Wickenden
What would the effects say of easing sanctions have? How much would it allow Iran to more generously fund Shiite militias and Hezbollah and thus further destabilize the region?
- [13:59]
Stephen Kahl
The larger picture is this pivot that the Obama administration is constructing to align with Iran tacitly. And then after the sanctions are relieved, probably more explicitly in the Middle east, it has one big structural problem. You know, the Shia are a minority. They're, you know, perhaps 20 or 30% of the region's population, depending on what you're counting. And the Sunni population is where all of the trouble lies at the moment. That's what ISIS is feeding on. That's what ISIS is destabilizing. To me, the big problem is what is the strategy for reducing violence, for addressing the horrible suffering of the Sunni majority in Syria, for preventing ISIS from spreading into more Sunni populations? That is the urgent question that the focus on Iran has, I'm afraid, sort of distracted the Obama administration from pursuing with all of its energy.
- [14:58]
Dorothy Wickenden
Robyn, do you agree with that? Obama's taken so much flak on his Middle east policy from Yemen to Syria. Steve is raising all of these serious worries about where we are right now.
- [15:09]
Robin Wright
Well, Steve's absolutely right, but there's also the flip side of that in the sense that a nuclear deal, for all its potential shortcomings, would ensure that Iran at least could not get what they call breakout for at least a year. And that the various terms of the deal, which we already know, they're really just sorting through the details on how to implement and verify it now, would ensure for various phases that it's 10 years to limit production of centrifuges that enrich uranium, which is the fuel for a nuclear weapon. They're 15 years. They have to keep enrichment to the level of, for a peaceful nuclear energy program for 20 years. They have to allow surveillance of all centrifuge production. And permanently they have to allow, by signing something called the Additional protocol, open ended inspections of not just declared facilities, but any suspect facility. There are certain kind of terms that go with this that it's only for 10 years. Well, in fact, there are different aspects that will apply for much longer and there are other nuclear deals, other arms treaties we've engaged in that have had shelf lives too, and you have to renegotiate them. So this is not unprecedented in approach.
- [16:28]
Dorothy Wickenden
Steve, what if an agreement can't be reached now? Will we have missed the moment? There's obviously great urgency on both sides to make it happen now, despite the differences.
- [16:38]
Stephen Kahl
Yeah, it gets harder because of the political season in the United States if it doesn't get done this summer. But I would imagine that if they really cannot bring the Iranians to terms about, for example, their past weapons work or other things that seem to be holding up a final agreement, they will prefer to maintain the interim arrangements and continue to talk. Because neither side would benefit from a complete collapse of the stability that has been created now, which has created running room for Iran, even without the benefits of sanctions relief. The problem with going on indefinitely is that it gets harder on the American side to see this through in a campaign year. And I don't think that an immediate resort to war and confrontation would result from a failure this summer.
- [17:31]
Dorothy Wickenden
What about that, Robin, from Iran's perspective?
- [17:34]
Robin Wright
Well, Iran also faces an election season even sooner than we do. In February, it holds elections for both parliament and the so called assembly of Experts, which oversees the Supreme Leader and will select the next one. And there was always a sense that if, if Iran got a nuclear deal, that the supporters of President Rouhani, a centrist, would do much better by 20 or 25% and that if there isn't a deal that the hardliners would continue their grip on parliament for another four years. So there's a lot at stake for the Iranians too, when it comes to the future.
- [18:10]
Dorothy Wickenden
Okay, thank you very much. Robyn Wright, a frequent contributor to the New Yorker, is the author of Rock the Rage and Rebellion across the Islamic World, Steve Collins, a staff writer and the author of Ghost the Secret history of the CIA, Afghanistan and bin Laden. From the Soviet invasion to September 10, this has been the political scene from the New Yorker. I'm Dorothy Wickenden.
- [18:33]
Katie Drummond
You can subscribe to this and other New Yorker podcasts in the itunes store. The weekly audio edition of the New Yorker is available@audible.com this podcast is produced by Jill Duboff and Alex barron of new yorker.com. what the hell is going on right now and why is it happening like this? At Wired, we're obsessed with getting to the bottom of those questions on a daily basis, and maybe you are too. I'm Katie Drummond, the global editorial director of Wired, and I'm hosting our new podcast series, the Big Interview. Each week I'll sit down with some of the most interesting, provocative, and influential people who are shaping our right now. Big Interview conversations are fun. I want a shark that that eats the Internet, that turns it all off, unfiltered and unafraid. So in a lot of ways, I.
- [19:24]
Robin Wright
Try to be an antidote to the.
- [19:26]
Katie Drummond
Unimaginable faucet of reactionary content that you see online. To the best of my ability, every week we're going to offer you the ultimate luxury of our times, meaning and context. True or false? You, Brian Johnson, the man sitting across from me, one day, at some point, as of yet undefined in the future, you will die. False. Tell me more. Listen to the Big Interview right now, in the same place you find WIRED's Uncanny Valley podcast. Subscribe or follow wherever you get your podcasts.
- [20:02]
Dorothy Wickenden
From.
- [20:03]
Stephen Kahl
PRX.