The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: The Iran Plan

Date: July 10, 2015
Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guests: Robin Wright, Stephen Kahl

Overview

This episode dives into the ongoing negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, exploring the stakes for the United States, Iran, and the broader Middle East. Executive editor Dorothy Wickenden moderates a conversation with veteran Middle East reporter Robin Wright and New Yorker staff writer Stephen Kahl. Together, they illuminate the historical context, political dynamics, and regional consequences of a potential nuclear deal, and reflect on how both the Iranian and American societies are responding to this possible turning point in international relations.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Obama’s Iran Diplomacy: Rationale and Involvement

• Obama's Commitment:
  • Robin Wright details President Obama’s deep involvement in the negotiations, describing him as "very involved" through constant communication with diplomats and military leadership (02:10).
  • The administration views the negotiations as an opportunity to move beyond “36 years of tension with a revolutionary society,” and essential for addressing modern Middle Eastern conflicts, where Iran wields substantial influence (02:10).
• Goal of Broader Regional Stability:
  • The U.S. approach aims to resolve or mitigate ongoing conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Libya by encouraging Iran to act as a stabilizing rather than a disruptive regional power.

Iran’s Perspective: Sovereignty and Historical Grievances

• More Than Nukes – It’s About Sovereignty:
  • Robin Wright emphasizes that for Iran, the negotiations are intrinsically linked to issues of sovereignty and historical memory, notably the 1953 CIA-orchestrated coup and the 1979 Revolution (03:55).
  • "These two epic moments have defined relations ever since." – Robin Wright (04:51)

U.S. Political Divisions and Congressional Dynamics

• Republican and Conservative Opposition:
  • Wickenden notes that critics label the deal “the worst agreement in U.S. diplomatic history”; Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu calls for walking away from the deal (04:51).
• Assessment of the Interim Agreement:
  • Stephen Kahl asserts that “the interim agreement's been working fine,” and much of the current criticism is “just talking points” timed with the U.S. campaign cycle (05:28).
• Likelihood of Success:
  • Congressional support likely hinges on “centrist Democrats and former administration officials… If they're satisfied by the final agreement… the Obama administration can push it through.” – Stephen Kahl (05:28)

The Iranian Political Spectrum and Public Sentiment

• The Duality of Iranian Society:
  • Kahl explains Iran’s leadership must “straddle the potential benefits of being the leader who brought Iran back into the world economy with the resistance of his sort of hardline supporters” (06:44).
• Population Ready for Change:
  • Robin Wright and Stephen Kahl both highlight that two-thirds of Iran’s population was born after the 1979 revolution, is highly connected, and is focused more on modernity and opportunity than revolutionary slogans (08:47, 10:06).
    • “There are people who no longer talk about the ideal Islamic state, but how to use technology to change society.” – Robin Wright (08:47)
    • “In Iran, [the U.S.] faces elites that are mostly hostile… and a population that is really ready for change.” – Stephen Kahl (10:06)

Public Expression and Limited Censorship

• Cultural Shifts and Irony:
  • Coverage of Iranian reformist media showing Obama “taking a selfie in front of Azadi Square” (11:08).
  • Despite censorship, Iranians—especially the youth—find creative means to access uncensored media and global platforms (11:08).
    • “The irony is that the Supreme Leader, the President, the Foreign Minister, all have Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google accounts, and they propagate their messages.” – Robin Wright (11:08)
  • During key moments like the interim framework announcement, young Iranians "took selfies in front of the television showing Obama’s speech… all over social media." – Robin Wright (11:08)

Regional Implications and Critiques of U.S. Policy

• Evolving Middle Eastern Geopolitics:
  • The panel reflects on how the negotiations are taking place amidst drastic changes: the rise of ISIS, state failures, and shifting alignments among Sunni states (12:35).
    • “The landscape has been changing like a kaleidoscope while the negotiations have been dragging on and on.” – Stephen Kahl (12:35)
• Concerns about Sanctions Relief:
  • There’s anxiety that sanctions relief could enable Iran to increase funding to Shiite militias and groups like Hezbollah, potentially fueling further regional destabilization (13:48).
• Obama’s Focus and Sunni Grievances:
  • Kahl suggests that the U.S. focus on Iran may be distracting from addressing Sunni grievances, which are at the core of the ISIS crisis (13:58).

The Dynamics and Durability of a Deal

• Verification and Duration:
  • Wright clarifies the terms: the deal would constrain Iran’s program for various durations (10, 15, or 20 years depending on the provision), and mandate permanent "Additional Protocol" access for inspections (15:09).
  • “There are other nuclear deals, other arms treaties we’ve engaged in that have had shelf lives too, and you have to renegotiate them. So this is not unprecedented in approach.” – Robin Wright (15:09)

What If No Agreement Is Reached?

• The Risks of Missing the Moment:
  • Kahl predicts that, in the absence of a final deal, interim arrangements would likely continue, but U.S. political dynamics will make future negotiations more difficult as the campaign season intensifies (16:37).
    • “Neither side would benefit from a complete collapse of the stability that has been created now…” – Stephen Kahl (16:37)
• Iran’s Own Political Timetable:
  • Wright: Upcoming parliamentary and Assembly elections in Iran increase pressure for a settlement. Failure to secure an agreement could solidify hardliner control (17:33).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (With Timestamps)

• “The President has been very involved... trying to turn a page on 36 years of tension with a revolutionary society.”
  — Robin Wright (02:10)

• "These two epic moments [1953 coup and 1979 Revolution] have defined relations ever since."
  — Robin Wright (04:51)

• “The interim agreement's been working fine. And look, a lot of that's just talking points. This is arriving now in the middle of a Republican primary.”
  — Stephen Kahl (05:28)

• “In Iran, it faces elites that are mostly hostile or require hostility to maintain their power and a population that is really ready for change.”
  — Stephen Kahl (10:06)

• “There are people talk no longer about the ideal Islamic state, but how to use technology to change society.”
  — Robin Wright (08:47)

• “The irony is that the Supreme Leader, the President, the Foreign Minister, all have Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, Google accounts, and they propagate their messages.”
  — Robin Wright (11:08)

• “The landscape has been changing like a kaleidoscope while the negotiations have been dragging on and on.”
  — Stephen Kahl (12:35)

• “There are other nuclear deals... that have had shelf lives too, and you have to renegotiate them. So this is not unprecedented in approach.”
  — Robin Wright (15:09)

Important Segment Timestamps

• Obama’s Involvement and Aims: 02:10–03:37
• U.S.-Iran Historical Context: 03:55–04:51
• Domestic U.S. Political Response: 04:51–06:32
• Iranian Internal Debate & Public Mood: 06:44–11:08
• Cultural Changes & Social Media: 11:08–12:24
• Regional Reshuffling & U.S. Policy Critique: 12:24–14:58
• Details of the Proposed Deal: 15:09–16:28
• Future with/without Agreement: 16:28–18:09

Conclusion

This episode provides a nuanced breakdown of the Iran nuclear negotiations at a pivotal moment. The conversation contextualizes why this deal matters, explores its implications for U.S. foreign policy and Middle Eastern stability, and draws out the tensions—both historic and current—shaping the positions of the United States, Iran’s regime, and its increasingly modern and outward-looking people. Both guests caution that the road ahead will be shaped by electoral cycles in both countries, shifting regional alliances, and the limits of diplomacy in the face of deep historical suspicion and contemporary strife.