The Political Scene | The New Yorker

Episode: The Problem with Polling

Date: November 5, 2015

Host: Dorothy Wickenden
Guest: Jill Lepore, professor of American history at Harvard and staff writer at The New Yorker

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the evolving role of political polling in American democracy—its origins, its outsized influence today, and the methodological, technological, and philosophical problems that now plague the practice. Dorothy Wickenden and Jill Lepore explore how polling has shaped political strategy, the media’s embrace of “noisy” data, and the urgent need for skepticism and reform.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Origins and Evolution of Polling

• Modern Polling’s Beginnings

  • George Gallup and the American Institute for Public Opinion revolutionized the measurement of public sentiment in the 1930s.
  • Early polls were seen as democratizing, giving “voice” to Americans outside the political establishment. (02:15)
  • Gallup’s early polls enjoyed a response rate above 90%—a far cry from today's single-digit rates.

• Polling as a Prestigious Endeavor

  • Pollsters once held “quite esteemed” status, akin to progressive reformers.
  • The early promise was that public opinion polling would be “the most important step for democracy since the secret ballot.” — Jill Lepore (02:43)

Why Polling is "Teetering on the Edge of Disaster"

• Methodological and Technological Breakdown

  • The shift from landlines to cell phones has dramatically compromised polling accuracy. Over 40% of Americans don’t have landlines; cell phone auto-dialing is restricted by law. (03:55)
  • Demographic differences emerge between those reachable by landline and those who are not, skewing data.
  • Response rates have plummeted from over 90% to “the single digits.” (03:46)
  • People are “sick of answering the phone” and less willing to participate in surveys.

• Political and Philosophical Problems

  • Problems “have been there all along,” not just with technology, but fundamentally political—such as the way polling can interfere with, rather than illuminate, democracy.
  • Even in the 1930s and 1940s, Congress repeatedly investigated the influence of polls. Critics argued that polling could “interfere with the democratic process.” — Jill Lepore (04:58)

Polling and the Press: A Problematic Relationship

• Overinterpretation of Noisy Data

  • The press, not just pollsters, perpetuates the problem by “overinterpreting noisy data.” (06:09)
  • Nate Silver (of FiveThirtyEight) points out that polling is often embraced as urgent news, even though the real story is that “there isn't all that much news in the campaign and the media is overinterpreting noisy data.”

• Polling's Lack of Predictive Power

  • Studies confirm polls “do not have predictive power.” They are “immensely entertaining and they're also powerful, are they not?” — Jill Lepore (07:05)
  • Despite this, poll numbers dictate campaign decisions, candidate strategy, donations, and even whether candidates stay in the race. (07:24)
  • “All these polls, we know they're not actually telling us much, but they nevertheless are determining the course of the election.”

The Shift from Party Bosses to Political Consultants

• From Party Machines to Political Marketing

  • The 1930s saw a transformation from party-driven politics to a “business model,” anchored in public opinion management and political consulting. (08:11)
  • Early pollsters, advertisers, and newspaper men—such as those at Campaigns Inc.—pioneered the integration of polling and political advertising.
  • Key moment: Eisenhower's 1952 campaign, which ushered in television ads, opponent research, and deep reliance on polling.

• Quote:
  “By the 1930s, [the party machine] reemerges in a completely different form. It's in the form of public opinion management and political consulting. It's just a different machine.” — Jill Lepore (08:11)

Polling in the Digital Age

• Obama's 2008 Campaign and the Myth of Digital Democracy
  • Obama’s strategy in 2008 sidelined traditional consultants in favor of social media. (10:20)
  • While new technologies enabled more communication, they didn’t guarantee truly broader participation or deliberative democracy.
  • Studies like “The Myth of Digital Democracy” challenge whether more voices are actually heard, noting a “real consolidation of political authority, not a diffusion.” (10:36)
  • Lepore raises doubt about the quantifiability of public opinion: “There’s a set of assumptions about opinion and attitude that have never really been proven, [but] lie behind the entire endeavor.” (11:40)

Media Gimmicks and the Perils of Instant Analysis

• Real-time Sentiment Analysis

  • Lepore critiques technologies like Bing’s real-time “pulse” graph during debates, likening it to a false “veneer of scientific truth.”
  • Quote:
    “It has this eerie veneer of scientific truth, because here is this…it was just about the most preposterous thing I had ever seen.” — Jill Lepore (13:13)
  • She invokes E.B. White: “We should be careful if you take the pulse of the nation, that the nation just hasn't run up a flight of stairs.” (13:35)
  • These gimmicks neglect the need for deliberation, conversation, and authority in politics.

• On Urgency and Volatility

  • The press has a business interest in selling polls as “urgently, instantly necessary.”
    “We blame politicians all the time for the volatility and vehemence of our politics, but I think the press needs to be held a little bit more accountable for the way in which the embrace of volatility is a sales model.” — Jill Lepore (14:29)

Advice for Navigating the Age of Polls

• Polling about Behavior vs. Opinion
  • Surveys like the census (measuring behavior/status) remain reliable; opinion polls, less so. (12:20)
  • Critical engagement and skepticism are needed. Not every “pulse” or instant reaction is meaningfully representative.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “He really presented himself as a social scientist who was committed to the work of hearing the voices of Americans, whose voices were not heard by the political process.”
  — Jill Lepore on Gallup (02:59)

• “Critics said in the 1930s and 1940s, when Congress repeatedly investigated the polls and polling organizations, critics would say this interferes with the democratic process.”
  — Jill Lepore (06:00)

• “All these polls, we know they're not actually telling us much, but they never the less are determining the course of the election.”
  — Jill Lepore (07:40)

• “It's very important for the press to sell these polls as urgently, instantly necessary.”
  — Jill Lepore (14:25)

Important Timestamps

• 01:15 — Introduction and Veep satire of pollsters
• 02:15 — Gallup, the invention of modern polling, and early public reaction
• 03:55 — Challenges of polling due to technological change and legal regulation
• 06:09 — Press over-interpretation of polling (“noisy data”)
• 07:24 — Real-world effects of polling on campaign strategy
• 08:11 — Emergence of political consultants and public opinion management
• 09:26 — 1952: TV advertising’s role in modern campaigns
• 10:20 — Obama, social media, and digital democracy
• 12:20 — Reliable vs. unreliable types of polling
• 13:13 — Critique of real-time media “pulses”
• 14:25 — The press’s commercial interest in poll-driven volatility

Summary

This episode offers a wide-ranging, deeply informed discussion of how polling has become both more pervasive and more problematic in American politics. Jill Lepore and Dorothy Wickenden probe the shortcomings—technological and philosophical—that undermine poll reliability, highlight how the media’s reliance on polling can distort political narratives, and suggest a return to a more skeptical, deliberative approach to politics and media coverage. The conversation unpacks the historical roots of today’s polling obsession, questions unexamined assumptions about public opinion, and calls for media accountability in an era when the “pulse” of democracy may be little more than a meaningless EKG.